On measuring quality of a probabilistic commodity forecast for a system that incorporates seasonal climate forecasts

Regional commodity forecasts are being used increasingly in agricultural industries to enhance their risk management and decision-making processes. These commodity forecasts are probabilistic in nature and are often integrated with a seasonal climate forecast system. The climate forecast system is based on a subset of analogue years drawn from the full climatological distribution. In this study we sought to measure forecast quality for such an integrated system. We investigated the quality of a commodity (i.e. wheat and sugar) forecast based on a subset of analogue years in relation to a standard reference forecast based on the full climatological set. We derived three key dimensions of forecast quality for such probabilistic forecasts: reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion. A measure of reliability was required to ensure no bias in the forecast distribution. This was assessed via the slope of the reliability plot, which was derived from examination of probability levels of forecasts and associated frequencies of realizations. The other two dimensions related to changes in features of the forecast distribution relative to the reference distribution. The relationship of 13 published accuracy/skill measures to these dimensions of forecast quality was assessed using principal component analysis in case studies of commodity forecasting using seasonal climate forecasting for the wheat and sugar industries in Australia. There were two orthogonal dimensions of forecast quality: one associated with distribution shift relative to the reference distribution and the other associated with relative distribution dispersion. Although the conventional quality measures aligned with these dimensions, none measured both adequately. We conclude that a multi-dimensional approach to assessment of forecast quality is required and that simple measures of reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion provide a means for such assessment. The analysis presented was also relevant to measuring quality of probabilistic seasonal climate forecasting systems. The importance of retaining a focus on the probabilistic nature of the forecast and avoiding simplifying, but erroneous, distortions was discussed in relation to applying this new forecast quality assessment paradigm to seasonal climate forecasts. Copyright (K) 2003 Royal Meteorological Society.

Comparative study of the radiation-induced grafting of styrene onto poly(tetrafluoroethylene-co-perfluoropropylvinyl ether) and polypropylene substrates. I: Kinetics and structural investigation

A comparative study has been made of the radiation grafting of styrene onto poly(tetrafluoroethylene-co-perfluoropropyl vinyl ether) (PFA) and polypropylene (PP) substrates, using the simultaneous irradiation method. Effects of grafting conditions such as monomer concentrations, type of solvent, dose rate and irradiation dose on the grafting yield were investigated. Under the same grafting conditions it was found that a higher degree of grafting of styrene was obtained using a mixture of dichloromethane/methanol solvents for PFA and methanol for PP and the degree of grafting was higher in PP than in PFA at all doses. However, the micro-Raman spectroscopy analysis of the graft revealed that, for the same degree of grafting, the penetration depth of the grafted polystyrene into the substrate was higher in PFA than in PP substrates. In both polymers the crystallinity was hardly affected by the grafting process and the degree of crystallinity decreased slightly with grafting dose. The dependence of the initial rate of grafting on the dose rate and the monomer concentration was found to be 0.6 and 1.4 order for PFA and 0.15 and 2.2 for PP, respectively. The degree of grafting increased with increasing radiation dose in both polymers. However, the grafting yield decreased with an increase in the dose rate. The increase in the overall grafting yield for PFA and PP was accompanied by a proportional increase in the penetration depth of the graft into the substrates. (C) 2003 Society of Chemical Industry.

A study of the radiation degradation of styrene/alkane and α-methylstyrene/alkane copolymers

The effects of copolymer composition and microstructure on the radiation chemistry of styrene/alkane and alpha-methylstyrene/alkane copolymers have been studied. The primary radical species formed on radiolysis of the copolymers at 77 K, and identified by ESR spectroscopy, are the same as those formed during radiolysis of the homopolymers. The yields of radicals for the copolymer are as predicted assuming that the cross-section is proportional to the electron density of each component; however, there is some evidence of radical migration to aromatic groups at 77 K. Changes in molecular structure on irradiation were detected by using C-13 NMR spectroscopy. Evidence of the consumption of terminal double bonds, and chain scission in alpha-methylstyrene/alkane copolymers was found. Measurements of viscosity supported the mechanism of cross-linking predominating in styrene/alkane copolymers, while in alpha-methylstyrene/alkane copolymers chain scission was the major result of irradiation. (C) 2003 Society of Chemical Industry.

A study of the radiation chemistry of poly(chlorotrifluoroethylene) by ESR spectroscopy

The ESR spectra of poly(chlorotrifluoroethylene) were recorded following gamma-radiolysis under vacuum at room temperature and 77 K. The very broad spectrum at 77 K revealed little fine structure with which to identity the radicals formed upon irradiation, but subsequent photobleaching and annealing studies, together with radiolytic studies at higher temperatures, afforded scope for making radical assignments. Both main-chain radicals and a range of chain-end radicals have been identified. The G-values for radical formation were 1.55, 0.36 and 0.32 at 77 K, 273 K and room temperature, respectively. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

High energy radiation grafting of fluoropolymers

Fluoropolymers are known as chemically inert materials with good high temperature resistance, so they are often the materials of choice for harsh chemical environments. These properties arise because the carbon-fluorine bond is the strongest of all bonds between other elements and carbon, and, because of their large size, fluorine atoms can protect the carbon backbone of polymers such as poly(tetrafluoroethylene), PTFE, from chemical attack. However, while the carbon-fluorine bond is much stronger than the carbon hydrogen bond, the G values for radical formation on high energy radiolysis of fluoropolymers are roughly comparable to those of their protonated counterparts. Thus, efficient high energy radiation grafting of fluoropolymers is practical, and this process can be used to modify either the surface or bulk properties of a fluoropolymer. Indeed, radiation grafted fluoropolymers are currently being used as separation membranes for fuel cells, hydrophilic filtration membranes and matrix substrate materials for use in combinatorial chemistry. Herein we present a review of recent studies of the high energy radiation grafting of fluoropolymers and of the analytical methods available to characterize the grafts. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.