An aggregate sales model for consumer durables incorporating a time-varying mean replacement age

Forecasting category or industry sales is a vital component of a company's planning and control activities. Sales for most mature durable product categories are dominated by replacement purchases. Previous sales models which explicitly incorporate a component of sales due to replacement assume there is an age distribution for replacements of existing units which remains constant over time. However, there is evidence that changes in factors such as product reliability/durability, price, repair costs, scrapping values, styling and economic conditions will result in changes in the mean replacement age of units. This paper develops a model for such time-varying replacement behaviour and empirically tests it in the Australian automotive industry. Both longitudinal census data and the empirical analysis of the replacement sales model confirm that there has been a substantial increase in the average aggregate replacement age for motor vehicles over the past 20 years. Further, much of this variation could be explained by real price increases and a linear temporal trend. Consequently, the time-varying model significantly outperformed previous models both in terms of fitting and forecasting the sales data. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Energy cost of physical activity in cystic fibrosis

Objective: The purpose of this study was to compare the energy cost of standardized physical activity (ECA) between patients with cystic fibrosis (CF) and healthy control subjects. Design: Cross-sectional study using patients with CF and volunteers from the community. Setting: University laboratory. Subjects: Fifteen patients (age 24.6 +/- 4.6 y) recruited with consent from their treating physician and 16 healthy control subjects (age 25.3 +/- 3.2) recruited via local advertisement. Interventions. Patients and controls walked on a computerised treadmill at 1.5 km/h for 60 min followed by a 60 min recovery period and, on a second occasion, cycled at 0.5 kp (kilopond), 30 rpm followed by a 60 min recovery. The ECA was measured via indirect calorimetry. Resting energy expenditure (REE), nutritional status, pulmonary function and genotype were determined. Results: The REE in patients was significantly greater than the REE measured in controls (P = 0.03) and was not related to the severity of lung disease or genotype. There was a significant difference between groups when comparing the ECA for walking kg root FFM (P = 0.001) and cycling kg root FFM (P = 0.04). The ECA for each activity was adjusted (ECA(adj)) for the contribution of REE (ECA kJ kg root FFM 120 min(-1) - REE kJ kg root FFM 120 min(-1)). ECA(adj) revealed a significant difference between groups for the walking protocol (P = 0.001) but no difference for the cycling protocol (P = 0.45). This finding may be related to the fact that the work rate during walking was more highly regulated than during cycling. Conclusions ECA in CF is increased and is likely to be explained by an additional energy-requiring component related to the exercise itself and not an increased REE. Sponsorship. The Prince Charles Hospital Foundation; MLR was in receipt of a QUTPRA Scholarship.

The BRCA2 372 HH genotype is associated with risk of breast cancer in Australian women under age 60 years

The BRCA2 N372H nonconservative amino acid substitution polymorphism appears to affect fetal survival in a sex-dependent manner, and the HH genotype was found to be associated with a 1.3-fold risk of breast cancer from pooling five case-control studies of Northern European women. We investigated whether the BR 2 N372H polymorphism was associated with breast cancer in Australian women using a population-based case-control design. The BRCA2 372 genotype was determined in 1397 cases under the age of 60 years at diagnosis of a first primary breast cancer and in 775 population-sampled controls frequency matched for age. Case-control analyses and comparisons of genotype distributions were conducted using logistic regression. All of the statistical tests were two-tailed. The HH genotype was independent of age and family history of breast cancer within cases and controls, and was more common in cases (9.2% versus 6.5%). It was associated with an increased risk of breast cancer, 1.47-fold unadjusted (95% confidence interval, 1.05-2.07; P = 0.02), and 1.42-fold (95% confidence interval, 1.00-2.02; P = 0.05) after adjusting for measured risk factors. This effect was still evident after excluding women with any non-Caucasian ancestry or the 33 cases known to have inherited a mutation in BRCA1 or BRCA2, and would explain similar to3% of breast cancer. The BRCA2 N372H polymorphism appears to be associated with a modest recessively inherited risk of breast cancer in Australian women. This result is consistent with the findings for Northern European women.

Developmental genetics of red cell indices during puberty: A longitudinal twin study

Red cell number and size increase during puberty, particularly in males. The aim of the present study was to determine whether expression of genes affecting red cell indices varied with age and sex. Haemoglobin, red cell count, and mean cellular volume were measured longitudinally on 578 pairs of twins at twelve, fourteen and sixteen years of age. Data were analysed using a structural equation modeling approach, in which a variety of univariate and longitudinal simplex models were fitted to the data. Significant heritability was demonstrated for all variables across all ages. The genes involved did not differ between the sexes, although there was evidence for sex limitation in the case of haemoglobin at age twelve. Longitudinal analyses indicated that new genes affecting red cell indices were expressed at different stages of puberty. Some of these genes affected the different red cell indices pleiotropically, while others had effects specific to one variable only.

Age-related lifecycles - Purpose variations

By describing and discussing Australian data on outbound tourism, this paper investigates the bimodal (double peaked) lifecycle pattern predicted and observed in the literature. These theories are primarily based on demand for holiday tourism, but tourists do not just go overseas for this purpose, with visiting friends and relatives, business, convention and conference, employment and educational tourism relevant purposes also. Trips overseas by Australians are split into these groups, enabling the age-related lifecycles of each to be examined separately. Unlike holiday tourism, all other purposes are unimodal, although they vary with respect to the age groups at which they peak and their relative positions.

Body size and latitudinal gradients in regional diversity of New World birds

Axe latitudinal gradients in regional diversity random or biased with respect to body size? Using data for the New World avifauna, I show that the slope of the increase in regional species richness from the Arctic to the equator is not independent of body size. The increase is steepest among small and medium-sized species, and shallowest among the largest species. This is reflected in latitudinal variation in the shape of frequency distributions of body sizes in regional subsets of the New World avifauna. Because species are added disproportionately in small and medium size classes towards low latitudes, distributions become less widely spread along the body size axis than expected from the number of species. These patterns suggest an interaction between the effects of latitude and body size on species richness, implying that mechanisms which vary with both latitude and body size may be important determinants of high tropical diversity in New World birds.

Molecular clocks in reptiles: Life history influences rate of molecular evolution

Life history has been implicated as a determinant of variation in rate of molecular evolution amongst vertebrate species because of a negative correlation between bode size and substitution rate for many Molecular data sets. Both the generality and the cause of the negative bode size trend have been debated, and the validity of key studies has been questioned (particularly concerning the failure to account for phylogenetic bias). In this study, a comparative method has been used to test for an association between a range of life-history variables-such as body size age at maturity, and clutch size-and DNA substitution rate for three genes (NADH4, cytochrome b, and c-mos). A negative relationship between body size and rate of molecular evolution was found for phylogenetically independent pairs of reptile species spanning turtles. lizards. snakes, crocodile, and tuatara. Although this Study was limited by the number of comparisons for which both sequence and lite-history data were available, the results, suggest that a negative bode size trend in rate of molecular evloution may be a general feature of reptile molecular evolution. consistent with similar studies of mammals and birds. This observation has important implications for uncovering the mechanisms of molecular evolution and warns against assuming that related lineages will share the same substitution rate (a local molecular clock) in order to date evolutionary divergences from DNA sequences.

An equivalent waveguide approach to designing of reflect arrays with the use of variable-size microstrip patches

An equivalent unit cell waveguide approach (WGA) is described to study the behavior of a multilayer reflect array of variable-size patches/dipoles, The approach considers normal incidence of a plane wave on an infinite periodic array of identical radiating elements and introduces an equivalent unit cell waveguide to obtain the reflection coefficient. A field matching technique and method of moments (MoM) is used to determine fields in different layers of the equivalent waveguide. Good agreements for the phase of the reflection coefficient between the proposed model and those published in selected literatures are obtained. (C) 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Mapping glider habitat in dry eucalypt forests for Montreal Process indicator 1.1: Fragmentation of forest types

Accurate habitat mapping is critical to landscape ecological studies such as required for developing and testing Montreal Process indicator 1.1e, fragmentation of forest types. This task poses a major challenge to remote sensing, especially in mixedspecies, variable-age forests such as dry eucalypt forests of subtropical eastern Australia. In this paper, we apply an innovative approach that uses a small section of one-metre resolution airborne data to calibrate a moderate spatial resolution model (30 m resolution; scale 1:50 000) based on Landsat Thematic Mapper data to estimate canopy structural properties in St Marys State Forest, near Maryborough, south-eastern Queensland. The approach applies an image-processing model that assumes each image pixel is significantly larger than individual tree crowns and gaps to estimate crown-cover percentage, stem density and mean crown diameter. These parameters were classified into three discrete habitat classes to match the ecology of four exudivorous arboreal species (yellowbellied glider Petaurus australis, sugar glider P. breviceps, squirrel glider P. norfolcensis , and feathertail glider Acrobates pygmaeus), and one folivorous arboreal marsupial, the greater glider Petauroides volans. These species were targeted due to the known ecological preference for old trees with hollows, and differences in their home range requirements. The overall mapping accuracy, visually assessed against transects (n = 93) interpreted from a digital orthophoto and validated in the field, was 79% (KHAT statistic = 0.72). The KHAT statistic serves as an indicator of the extent that the percentage correct values of the error matrix are due to ‘true’ agreement verses ‘chance’ agreement. This means that we are able to reliably report on the effect of habitat loss on target species, especially those with a large home range size (e.g. yellow-bellied glider). However, the classified habitat map failed to accurately capture the spatial patterning (e.g. patch size and shape) of stands with a trace or sub-dominance of senescent trees. This outcome makes the reporting of the effects of habitat fragmentation more problematic, especially for species with a small home range size (e.g. feathertail glider). With further model refinement and validation, however, this moderateresolution approach offers an important, cost eff e c t i v e advancement in mapping the age of dry eucalypt forests in the region.

Acoustic signature of the normal swallow: Characterization by age, gender, and bolus volume

Despite growing clinical use, cervical auscultation suffers from a lack of research-based data. One of the strongest criticisms of cervical auscultation is that there has been little research to demonstrate how dysphagic swallowing sounds are different from normal swallowing sounds, In order to answer this question, however, one first needs to document the acoustic characteristics of normal, nondysphagic swallowing sounds, This article provides the first normative database of normal swallowing sounds for the adult population. The current investigation documents the acoustic characteristics of normal swallowing sounds for individuals from 18 to more than 60 years of age over a range of thin liquid volumes. Previous research has shown the normal swallow to be a dynamic event. The normal swallow is sensitive to aging of the oropharyngeal system, and also to the volume of bolus swallowed. The current investigation found that the acoustic signals generated during swallowing were sensitive to an individual's age and to the volume of the bolus swallowed. There were also some gender-specific differences in the acoustic profile of the swallowing sound, It is anticipated that the results will provide a catalyst for further research into cervical auscultation.

Catalytically active Dengue virus NS3 protease forms aggregates that are separable by size exclusion chromatography

An active form of the Dengue virus protease NS3 (CF40.Gly.NS3pro) was expressed in Escherichia coli. This construct consists of a critical 40 amino acid cofactor domain from NS2B fused to the N-terminal 184 amino acid protease domain of NS3 via a flexible, covalent linker (Gly(4)SerGly(4)). The recombinantly produced protein is soluble and has a hexa-histidine tag engineered at the N-terminus for ease of purification using metal affinity chromatography. However, the presence of lower molecular weight impurities after affinity chromatography indicated the need for additional purification steps. The consistent appearance of these impurities suggested that they may be the products of proteolysis and/or auto-proteolysis. The latter possibility was subsequently excluded by the observation of the same impurities in a purified, catalytically inactive form of the recombinant protease (CF40.Gly.NS3pro.SA). Further analysis indicated that these impurities may represent premature translation termination products. Regardless of their origin, they were shown to form various sized aggregates with full-length CF40.Gly.NS3pro that can be separated by size exclusion chromatography, yielding fractions of active protease of sufficient purity for crystallisation trials. The ultimate goal of these studies is to obtain a crystal structure of a catalytically active form of the Dengue virus NS3 protease for structure-based drug design. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.

Intraindividual allometric development of aerobic power in 8- to 16-year-old boys

Purpose: The aims of this study are two-fold: first, to analyze intraindividual allometric development of aerobic power of 73 boys followed at annual intervals from 8 to 16 yr, and second, to relate scaled aerobic power with level of habitual physical activity and biological maturity status. Methods: Peak (V) over dot O-2 (treadmill), height, and body mass were measured. Biological maturity was based on age at peak height velocity (PHV) and level of physical activity was based on five assessments between 11 and 15 yr and at 17 yr. Interindividual and intraindividual allometric coefficients were calculated. Multilevel modeling was applied to verify if maturity status and activity explain a significant proportion of peak (V) over dot O-2 after controlling for other explanatory characteristics. Results: At most age levels, interindividual allometry coefficients for body mass exceed k = 0.750. Intraindividual coefficients of peak (V) over dot O-2 by body mass vary widely and range from k' = 0,555 to k' = 1,178. Late maturing boys have smaller k' coefficients than early maturing boys. Conclusion: Peak (V) over dot O-2 is largely explained by body mass, but activity level and its interaction with maturity status contribute independently to peak (V) over dot O-2 even after adjusting for body mass.

Age and gender differences in objectively measured physical activity in youth

TROST. S. G., R. R. PATE, J. F. SALLIS, P. S. FREEDSON, W. C. TAYLOR, M. DOWDA, and J. SIRARD. Age and gender differences in objectively measured physical activity in youth. Med. Sci. Sports Ererc., Vol. 34, No. 2, pp. 350-355, 2002. Purpose: The purpose of this study was to evaluate age and gender differences in objectively measured physical activity (PA) in a population-based sample of students in grades 1-12. Methods: Participants (185 male, 190 female) wore a CSA 7164 accelerometer for 7 consecutive days. To examine age-related trends. students were grouped as follows: grades 1-3 (N = 90), grades 4-6 (N = 91), grades 7-9 (N = 96). and grades 10-12 (N = 92). Bouts of PA and minutes spent in moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA) and vigorous PA (VPA) were examined. Results: Daily MVPA and VPA exhibited a significant inverse relationship with grade level, with the largest differences occurring between grades 1d-3 and 4-6. Boys were more active than girls; however, for overall PA, the magnitudes of the gender differences were modest. Participation in continuous 20-min bouts of PA was low to nonexistent. Conclusion: Our results support the notion that PA declines rapidly during childhood and adolescence and that accelerometers are feasible alternatives to self-report methods in moderately sized population-level surveillance studies.