Impact numbers: measures of risk factor impact on the whole population from case-control and cohort studies

Objective: To describe new measures of risk from case-control and cohort studies, which are simple to understand and relate to numbers of the population at risk. Design: Theoretical development of new measures of risk. Setting: Review of literature and previously described measures. Main results: The new measures are: (1) the population impact number (PIN), the number of those in the whole population among whom one case is attributable to the exposure or risk factor (this is equivalent to the reciprocal of the population attributable risk),- (2) the case impact number (CIN) the number of people with the disease or outcome for whom one case will be attributable to the exposure or risk factor (this is equivalent to the reciprocal of the population attributable fraction); (3) the exposure impact number (EIN) the number of people with the exposure among whom one excess case is attributable to the exposure (this is equivalent to the reciprocal of the attributable risk); (4) the exposed cases impact number (ECIN) the number of exposed cases among whom one case is attributable to the exposure (this is equivalent to the reciprocal of the aetiological fraction). The impact number reflects the number of people in each population (the whole population, the cases, all those exposed, and the exposed cases) among whom one case is attributable to the particular risk factor. Conclusions: These new measures should help communicate the impact on a population, of estimates of risk derived from cohort or case-control studies.

Contribution of cholinergic systems to state-dependent modulation of respiratory control

Respiration is altered during different stages of the sleep-wake cycle. We review the contribution of cholinergic systems to this alteration, with particular reference to the role of muscarinic acetylcholine receptors (MAchRs) during rapid eye movement (REM) sleep. Available evidence demonstrates that MAchRs have potent excitatory effects on medullary respiratory neurones and respiratory motoneurones, and are likely to contribute to changes in central chemosensitive drive to the respiratory control system. These effects are likely to be most prominent during REM sleep, when cholinergic brainstem neurones show peak activity levels. It is possible that MAchR dysfunction is involved in sleep-disordered breathing, Such as obstructive sleep apnea. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Effect of Metalaxyl Resistance and Cultivar Resistance on Control of Phytophthora nicotianae in Tobacco

Phytophthora nicotianae is a devastating root and stem pathogen of tobacco (Nicotiana tabacum) in South Africa. Growers strive to control the resulting disease, known as black shank, with metalaxyl treatments and resistant cultivars. The aim of this study was to consider whether development of metalaxyl resistance in P. nicotianae has contributed to poor disease control and if recently developed cultivars with high levels of resistance require metalaxyl for effective control. One hundred and thirty-two isolates of P. nicotianae were screened for sensitivity to metalaxyl. P. nicotianae isolates from most tobacco farms were metalaxyl sensitive. Growth of most isolates was inhibited completely at 1.0 μg a.i./ml. However, isolates from the MKTV tobacco producing area showed EC50 values ranging from 1.02 μg a.i./ml to 3.57 μg a.i./ml. Twenty-one tobacco cultivars were planted and treated with and without metalaxyl in two different growing seasons to evaluate their resistance to P. nicotianae and the value of using metalaxyl. Hicks was the most susceptible cultivar. Vuma/3/46, LK30/40/60-1, and LK33/60 exhibited the greatest resistance to P. nicotianae. Use of metalaxyl in combination with moderately resistant cultivars such as NC60 × TL33 and LK10/80/60 effectively reduced black shank in the field. Resistant cultivars were healthy and no significant difference between metalaxyl treated and untreated plants was observed.

Control of ovulation with a GnRH agonist after superstimulation of follicular growth in buffalo: fertilization and embryo recovery

The potential to use a GnRH agonist bioimplant and injection of exogenous LH to control the time of ovulation in a multiple ovulation and embryo transfer (MOET) protocol was examined in buffalo. Mixed-parity buffalo (Bubalus bubalis; 4-15-year-old; 529 13 kg LW) were randomly assigned to one of five groups (n = 6): Group 1, conventional MOET protocol; Group 2, conventional MOET with 12 It delay in injection of PGF(2alpha); Group 3, implanted with GnRH agonist to block the pre-ovulatory surge release of LH; Group 4, implanted with GnRH agonist and injected with exogenous LH (Lutropin(R), 25 mg) 24 h after 4 days of superstimulation with FSH; Group 5, implanted with GnRH agonist and injected with LH 36 h after superstimulation with FSH. Ovarian follicular growth in all buffaloes was stimulated by treatment with FSH (Folltropin-V(R), 200 mg) administered over 4 days, and was monitored by ovarian ultrasonography. At the time of estrus, the number of follicles greater than or equal to8 mm. was greater (P < 0.05) for buffaloes in Group 2 (12.8) than for buffaloes in Groups 1 (8.5), 3 (7.3), 4 (6.1) and 5 (6.8), which did not differ. All buffaloes were mated by AI after spontaneous (Groups 1-3) or induced (Groups 4 and 5) ovulation. The respective number of buffalo that ovulated, number of corpora lutea, ovulation rate (%), and embryos + oocytes recovered were: Group 1 (2, 1.8 +/- 1.6, 18.0 +/- 13.6, 0.2 +/- 0.2); Group 2 (4, 6.1 +/- 2.9, 40.5 +/- 17.5, 3.7 +/- 2.1); Group 3 (0, 0, 0, 0); Group 4 (6, 4.3 +/- 1.2, 69.3 +/- 14.2, 2.0 +/- 0.9); and Group 5 (1, 2.5 +/- 2.5, 15.5 +/- 15.5, 2.1 +/- 2.1). All buffaloes in Group 4 ovulated after injection of LH and had a relatively high ovulation rate (69%) and embryo recovery (46%). It has been shown that the GnRH agonist-LH protocol can be used to improve the efficiency of MOET in buffalo. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

Appropriate indicators for injury control?

Indicators are valuable tools used to measure progress towards a desired health outcome. Increased awareness of the public health burden due to injury has lead to a concomitant interest in monitoring the impact of national initiatives that aim to reduce the size of the burden. Several injury indicators have now been proposed. This study examines the ability of each of the suggested indicators to reflect the nature and extent of the burden of non-fatal injury. A criterion validity, population-based, prospective cohort study was conducted in Brisbane, a sub-tropical Metropolitan City on the eastern seaboard of Australia, over a 12-month period between 1 January and 31 December 1998. Neither the presence of a long bone fracture nor the need for hospitalisation for 4 or more days were sensitive or specific indicators for 'serious' or major injury as defined by the 'Gold Standard' Injury Severity Score (ISS). Subsequent analysis, using other public health outcome measures demonstrated that the major component of the illness burden of injury was in fact due to 'minor' not serious injury. However, the suggested indicators demonstrated low sensitivity and specificity for these outcomes as well. The results of the study support the need to include at least all hospitalisations in any population-based measure of injury and not attempt to simplify the indicator to a more convenient measure aimed at identifying just those cases of,serious' injury.

Mathematical modelling of schistosomiasis japonica: comparison of control strategies in the People's Republic of China

We present the first mathematical model on the transmission dynamics of Schistosoma japonicum. The work extends Barbour's classic model of schistosome transmission. It allows for the mammalian host heterogeneity characteristic of the S. japonicum life cycle, and solves the problem of under-specification of Barbour's model by the use of Chinese data we are collecting on human-bovine transmission in the Poyang Lake area of Jiangxi Province in China. The model predicts that in the lake/marshland areas of the Yangtze River basin: (1) once-early mass chemotherapy of humans is little better than twice-yearly mass chemotherapy in reducing human prevalence. Depending on the heterogeneity of prevalence within the population, targeted treatment of high prevalence groups, with lower overall coverage, can be more effective than mass treatment with higher overall coverage. Treatment confers a short term benefit only, with prevalence rising to endemic levels once chemotherapy programs are stopped (2) depending on the relative contributions of bovines and humans, bovine treatment can benefit humans almost as much as human treatment. Like human treatment, bovine treatment confers a short-term benefit. A combination of human and bovine treatment will dramatically reduce human prevalence and maintains the reduction for a longer period of time than treatment of a single host, although human prevalence rises once treatment ceases; (3) assuming 75% coverage of bovines, a bovine vaccine which acts on worm fecundity must have about 75% efficacy to reduce the reproduction rate below one and ensure mid-term reduction and long-term elimination of the parasite. Such a vaccination program should be accompanied by an initial period of human treatment to instigate a short-term reduction in prevalence, following which the reduction is enhanced by vaccine effects; (4) if the bovine vaccine is only 45% efficacious (the level of current prototype vaccines) it will lower the endemic prevalence, but will not result in elimination. If it is accompanied by an initial period of human treatment and by a 45% improvement in human sanitation or a 30% reduction in contaminated water contact by humans, elimination is then possible. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Neural control of the heart: developmental changes in ionic conductances in mammalian intrinsic cardiac neurons

The expression and properties of ionic channels were investigated in dissociated neurons from neonatal and adult rat intracardiac ganglia. Changes in the hyperpolarization-activated and ATP-sensitive K+ conductances during postnatal development and their role in neuronal excitability were examined. The hyperpolarization-activated nonselective cation current, I-h, was observed in all neurons studied and displayed slow time-dependent rectification. An inwardly rectifying K+ current, I-K(I), was present in a population of neurons from adult but not neonatal rats and was sensitive to block by extracellular Ba2+. Using the perforated-patch recording configuration, an ATP-sensitive K+ (K-ATP) conductance was identified in greater than or equal to 50% of intracardiac neurons from adult rats. Levcromakalim evoked membrane hyperpolarization, which was inhibited by the sulphonylurea drugs. glibenclamide and tolbutamide. Exposure to hypoxic conditions also activated a membrane current similar to that induced by levcromakalim and was inhibited by glibenclamide. Changes in the complement of ion channels during postnatal development may underlie observed differences in the function of intracardiac ganglion neurons during maturation. Furthermore, activation of hyperpolarization-activated and KATP channels in mammalian intracardiac neurons may play a role in neural regulation of the mature heart and cardiac function during ischaemia-reperfusion. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V All rights reserved.

Point source inoculation of Mesocyclops (Copepoda : Cyclopidae) gives widespread control of Ochlerotatus and Aedes (Diptera : Culicidae) immatures in service manholes and pits in North Queensland, Australia

This study details the novel application of predacious copepods, genus Mesocyclops, for control of Ochlerotatus tremulus (Theobald) group and Aedes aegypti (L.) mosquito larvae in subterranean habitats in north Queensland, Australia. During June 1997, 50 Mesocyclops sp. I were inoculated into one service manhole in South Townsville. Wet season rainfall and flooding in both 1998 and 2000 was responsible for the dispersal of copepods via the underground pipe system to 29 of 35 manholes over an area of 1.33 km(2). Significant reductions in Aedes and Ochlerotatus larvae ensued. In these habitats, Mesocyclops and Metacyclops were able to survive dry periods, when substrate moisture content ranged from 13.8 to 79.9%. At the semiarid inland towns of Hughenden and Richmond, cracking clay soil prevents drainage of water from shallow service pits where Oc. tremulus immatures numbered from 292-18,460 per pit. Introduction of Mesocyclops copepods into these sites during May 1999 resulted in 100% control of Oc. tremulus for 18 mo. One uninoculated pit subsequently became positive for Mesocyclops with resultant control of mosquito larvae.

Control of Aedes vectors of dengue in three provinces of Vietnam by use of Mesocyclops (Copepoda) and community-based methods validated by entomologic, clinical, and serological surveillance

We describe remarkable success in controlling dengue vectors, Aedes aegypti (L.) and Aedes albopictus (Skuse), in 6 communes with 11,675 households and 49,647 people in the northern provinces of Haiphong, Hung Yen, and Nam Dinh in Vietnam. The communes were selected for high-frequency use of large outdoor concrete tanks and wells. These were found to be the source of 49.6-98.4% of Ae. aegypti larvae, which were amenable to treatment with local Mesocyclops, mainly M. woutersi Van der Velde, M. aspericornis (Daday) and M. thermocyclopoides Harada. Knowledge, attitude, and practice surveys were performed to determine whether the communities viewed dengue and dengue hemorrhagic fever as a serious health threat; to determine their knowledge of the etiology, attitudes, and practices regarding control methods including Mesocyclops; and to determine their receptivity to various information methods. On the basis of the knowledge, attitude, and practice data, the community-based dengue control program comprised a system of local leaders, health volunteer teachers, and schoolchildren, supported by health professionals. Recycling of discards for economic gain was enhanced, where appropriate, and this, plus 37 clean-up campaigns, removed small containers unsuitable for Mesocyclops treatment. A previously successful eradication at Phan Boi village (Hung Yen province) was extended to 7 other villages forming Di Su commune (1,750 households) in the current study. Complete control was also achieved in Nghia Hiep (Hung Yen province) and in Xuan Phong (Nam Dinh province); control efficacy was greater than or equal to 99.7% in the other 3 communes (Lac Vien in Haiphong, Nghia Dong, and Xuan Kien in Nam Dinh). Although tanks and wells were the key container types of Ae. aegypti productivity, discarded materials were the source of 51% of the standing crop of Ae. albopictus. Aedes albopictus larvae were eliminated from the 3 Nam Dinh communes, and 86-98% control was achieved in the other 3 communes. Variable dengue attack rates made the clinical and serological comparison of control and untreated communes problematic, but these data indicate that clinical surveillance by itself is inadequate to monitor dengue transmission.

Farm exposures, parental occupation, and risk of Ewing's sarcoma in Australia: a national case-control study

Objective: It has been suggested that parental occupation, particularly farming, increased the risk of Ewing's sarcoma in the offspring. In a national case-control study we examined the relationship between farm and other parental occupational exposures and the risk of cancer in the offspring. Methods: Cases were 106 persons with confirmed Ewing's sarcoma or peripheral primitive neuroectodermal tumor. Population-based controls (344) were selected randomly via telephone. Information was collected by interview (84% face-to-face). Results: We found an excess of case mothers who worked on farms at conception and/or pregnancy (odds ratio (OR) = 2.3, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.5-12.0) and a slightly smaller excess of farming fathers; more case mothers usually worked as laborers, machine operators, or drivers (OR = 1.8, 95% CI 0.9-3.9). Risk doubled for those whose mothers handled pesticides and insecticides, or fathers who handled solvents and glues, and oils and greases. Further, more cases lived on farms (OR = 1.6, 95% CI 0.9-2.8). In the 0-20 years group, the risk doubled for those who ever lived on a farm (OR = 2.0, 95% CI 1.0-3.9), and more than tripled for those with farming fathers at conception and/or pregnancy (OR = 3.5, 95% CI 1.0-11.9). Conclusions: Our data support the general hypothesis of an association of Ewing's sarcoma family of tumors with farming, particularly at younger ages, who represent the bulk of cases, and are more likely to share etiologic factors.