Population health, environment and economic development

This paper studies the role of income distribution and technology transfer in the process of economic development. A novel aspect of the model is that the composition of human capital as well as the level affect economic growth. Utilizing an overlapping-generations model in which income distribution changes endogenously, we present an economic explanation for why some countries could not start modern economic growth; why some countries took off but have apparently stopped growing after some time; and why some countries have successfully developed and continue to grow

Combining the analyses of introgressive hybridisation and linkage mapping to investigate the genetic architecture of population divergence in the lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis, Mitchill)

Adaptation and reproductive isolation, the engines of biological diversity, are still elusive when discussing the genetic bases of speciation. Namely, the number of genes and magnitude of selection acting positively or negatively on genomic traits implicated in speciation is contentious. Here, we describe the first steps of an ongoing research program aimed at understanding the genetic bases of population divergence and reproductive isolation in the lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis). A preliminary linkage map originating from a hybrid cross between dwarf and normal ecotypes is presented, whereby some of the segregating AFLP markers were found to be conserved among natural populations. Maximum-likelihood was used to estimate hybrid indices from non-diagnostic markers at 998 AFLP loci. This allowed identification of the most likely candidate loci that have been under the influence of selection during the natural hybridisation of whitefish originating from different glacial races. As some of these loci could be identified on the linkage map, the possibility that selection of traits in natural populations may eventually be correlated to specific chromosomal regions was demonstrated. The future prospects and potential of these approaches to elucidate the genetic bases of adaptation and reproductive isolation among sympatric ecotypes of lake whitefish is discussed.

Boundary value problems for systems of difference equations associated with systems of second-order ordinary differential equations

We study difference equations which arise as discrete approximations to two-point boundary value problems for systems of second-order ordinary differential equations. We formulate conditions which guarantee a priori bounds on first differences of solutions to the discretized problem. We establish existence results for solutions to the discretized boundary value problems subject to nonlinear boundary conditions. We apply our results to show that solutions to the discrete problem converge to solutions of the continuous problem in an aggregate sense. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Difference equations associated with fully nonlinear boundary value problems for second order ordinary differential equations

We study the continuous problem y"=f(x,y,y'), xc[0,1], 0=G((y(0),y(1)),(y'(0), y'(1))), and its discrete approximation (y(k+1)-2y(k)+y(k-1))/h(2) =f(t(k), y(k), v(k)), k = 1,..., n-1, 0 = G((y(0), y(n)), (v(1), v(n))), where f and G = (g(0), g(1)) are continuous and fully nonlinear, h = 1/n, v(k) = (y(k) - y(k-1))/h, for k =1,..., n, and t(k) = kh, for k = 0,...,n. We assume there exist strict lower and strict upper solutions and impose additional conditions on f and G which are known to yield a priori bounds on, and to guarantee the existence of solutions of the continuous problem. We show that the discrete approximation also has solutions which approximate solutions of the continuous problem and converge to the solution of the continuous problem when it is unique, as the grid size goes to 0. Homotopy methods can be used to compute the solution of the discrete approximation. Our results were motivated by those of Gaines.

Urbanization, population transition, and growth

This paper analyzes a dual economy consisting of urban market areas and less developed rural areas with or without local markets. Urban areas have better opportunities for earnings and education than rural areas. Rural families choose whether to move to urban areas at costs that differ from location to location. As per capita output grows relative to the moving cost, urbanization proceeds, leading to lower fertility, more investments in human and physical capital per child relative to output per worker, and faster economic growth. These impacts are stronger if rural areas have no access to markets.

Effects of paternal drinking, conduct disorder and childhood home environment on the development of alcohol use disorders in a Thai population

Aims To identify influences on the development of alcohol use disorders in a Thai population, particularly parental drinking and childhood environment. Design Case-control study. Setting A university hospital, a regional hospital and a community hospital in southern Thailand. Participants Ninety-one alcohol-dependents and 177 hazardous/harmful drinkers were recruited as cases and 144 non-or infrequent drinkers as controls. Measurements Data on parental drinking, family demographic characteristics, family activities, parental disciplinary practice, early religious life and conduct disorder were obtained using a structured interview questionnaire. The main outcome measure was the subject's classification as alcohol-dependent, hazardous/harmful drinker or non-/infrequent drinker. Findings A significant relationship was found between having a drinking father and the occurrence of hazardous/harmful drinking or alcohol dependence in the subjects. Childhood factors (conduct disorder and having been a temple boy, relative probability ratios, RPRs and 95% CI: 6.39, 2.81-14.55 and 2.21, 1.19-4.08, respectively) also significantly predicted alcohol dependence, while perceived poverty and ethnic alienation was reported less frequently by hazardous/harmful drinkers and alcohol-dependents (RPRS and 95% CIs = 0.34, 0.19-0.62 and 0.59, 0.38-0.93, respectively) than the controls. The relative probability ratio for the effect of the father's infrequent drinking on the son's alcohol dependence was 2.92 (95% CI = 1.42-6.02) and for the father's heavy or dependent drinking 2.84 (95% CI=1.31-6.15). Conclusions Being exposed to a light-drinking, father increases the risk of a son's alcohol use disorders exhibited either as hazardous-harmful or dependent drinking. However, exposure to a heavy- or dependent-drinking father is associated more uniquely with an increased risk of his son being alcohol-dependent. The extent to which this is seen in other cultures is worthy of exploration.

Population balance modelling of granulation with a physically based coalescence kernel

It was previously published by the authors that granules can either coalesce through Type I (when granules coalesce by viscous dissipation in the surface liquid layer before their surfaces touch) or Type II (when granules are slowed to a halt during rebound, after their surfaces have made contact) (AIChE J. 46 (3) (2000) 529). Based on this coalescence mechanism, a new coalescence kernel for population balance modelling of granule growth is presented. The kernel is constant such that only collisions satisfying the conditions for one of the two coalescence types are successful. One constant rate is assigned to each type of coalescence and zero is for the case of rebound. As the conditions for Types I and II coalescence are dependent on granule and binder properties, the coalescence kernel is thus physically based. Simulation results of a variety of binder and granule materials show good agreement with experimental data. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparison of two population pharmacokinetic programs, NONMEM and P-PHARM, for tacrolimus

Objectives: To compare the population modelling programs NONMEM and P-PHARM during investigation of the pharmacokinetics of tacrolimus in paediatric liver-transplant recipients. Methods: Population pharmacokinetic analysis was performed using NONMEM and P-PHARM on retrospective data from 35 paediatric liver-transplant patients receiving tacrolimus therapy. The same data were presented to both programs. Maximum likelihood estimates were sought for apparent clearance (CL/F) and apparent volume of distribution (V/F). Covariates screened for influence on these parameters were weight, age, gender, post-operative day, days of tacrolimus therapy, transplant type, biliary reconstructive procedure, liver function tests, creatinine clearance, haematocrit, corticosteroid dose, and potential interacting drugs. Results: A satisfactory model was developed in both programs with a single categorical covariate - transplant type - providing stable parameter estimates and small, normally distributed (weighted) residuals. In NONMEM, the continuous covariates - age and liver function tests - improved modelling further. Mean parameter estimates were CL/F (whole liver) = 16.3 1/h, CL/F (cut-down liver) = 8.5 1/h and V/F = 565 1 in NONMEM, and CL/F = 8.3 1/h and V/F = 155 1 in P-PHARM. Individual Bayesian parameter estimates were CL/F (whole liver) = 17.9 +/- 8.8 1/h, CL/F (cutdown liver) = 11.6 +/- 18.8 1/h and V/F = 712 792 1 in NONMEM, and CL/F (whole liver) = 12.8 +/- 3.5 1/h, CL/F (cut-down liver) = 8.2 +/- 3.4 1/h and V/F = 221 1641 in P-PHARM. Marked interindividual kinetic variability (38-108%) and residual random error (approximately 3 ng/ml) were observed. P-PHARM was more user friendly and readily provided informative graphical presentation of results. NONMEM allowed a wider choice of errors for statistical modelling and coped better with complex covariate data sets. Conclusion: Results from parametric modelling programs can vary due to different algorithms employed to estimate parameters, alternative methods of covariate analysis and variations and limitations in the software itself.

Levels of consensus and majority and minority influence

Three experiments are reported which examine the effects of consensus information on majority and minority influence. In all experiments two levels of consensus difference were examined; large (82% versus 18%) and small (52% versus 48%). Experiment 1 showed that a majority source had more influence than a minority source, irrespective of consensus level. Experiment 2 examined the cause of this effect by presenting only the source label ('majority' versus 'minority'), only the consensus information (percentages) or both. The superior influence of the majority was again found when either (a) both source label and consensus information were given (replicating Experiment 1) and (b) only consensus information was given, but not when (c) only the source label was given. The results showed majority influence was due to the consensus information indicating more than 50% of the population supported that position. Experiment 3 also manipulated message quality (strong versus weak arguments) to identify whether systematic processing had occurred. Message quality only had an impact with the minority of 18%. These studies show that consensus information has different effects' for majority and minority influence. For majority influence, having over 50% support is sufficient to cause compliance while for a minority there are advantages to being numerically small, in terms of leading to detailed processing of its message. Copyright (C) 2002 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.