Urbanization, population transition, and growth

This paper analyzes a dual economy consisting of urban market areas and less developed rural areas with or without local markets. Urban areas have better opportunities for earnings and education than rural areas. Rural families choose whether to move to urban areas at costs that differ from location to location. As per capita output grows relative to the moving cost, urbanization proceeds, leading to lower fertility, more investments in human and physical capital per child relative to output per worker, and faster economic growth. These impacts are stronger if rural areas have no access to markets.

The impact of genotyping error on haplotype reconstruction and frequency estimation

The choice of genotyping families vs unrelated individuals is a critical factor in any large-scale linkage disequilibrium (LD) study. The use of unrelated individuals for such studies is promising, but in contrast to family designs, unrelated samples do not facilitate detection of genotyping errors, which have been shown to be of great importance for LD and linkage studies and may be even more important in genotyping collaborations across laboratories. Here we employ some of the most commonly-used analysis methods to examine the relative accuracy of haplotype estimation using families vs unrelateds in the presence of genotyping error. The results suggest that even slight amounts of genotyping error can significantly decrease haplotype frequency and reconstruction accuracy, that the ability to detect such errors in large families is essential when the number/complexity of haplotypes is high (low LD/common alleles). In contrast, in situations of low haplotype complexity (high LD and/or many rare alleles) unrelated individuals offer such a high degree of accuracy that there is little reason for less efficient family designs. Moreover, parent-child trios, which comprise the most popular family design and the most efficient in terms of the number of founder chromosomes per genotype but which contain little information for error detection, offer little or no gain over unrelated samples in nearly all cases, and thus do not seem a useful sampling compromise between unrelated individuals and large families. The implications of these results are discussed in the context of large-scale LD mapping projects such as the proposed genome-wide haplotype map.

Effects of paternal drinking, conduct disorder and childhood home environment on the development of alcohol use disorders in a Thai population

Aims To identify influences on the development of alcohol use disorders in a Thai population, particularly parental drinking and childhood environment. Design Case-control study. Setting A university hospital, a regional hospital and a community hospital in southern Thailand. Participants Ninety-one alcohol-dependents and 177 hazardous/harmful drinkers were recruited as cases and 144 non-or infrequent drinkers as controls. Measurements Data on parental drinking, family demographic characteristics, family activities, parental disciplinary practice, early religious life and conduct disorder were obtained using a structured interview questionnaire. The main outcome measure was the subject's classification as alcohol-dependent, hazardous/harmful drinker or non-/infrequent drinker. Findings A significant relationship was found between having a drinking father and the occurrence of hazardous/harmful drinking or alcohol dependence in the subjects. Childhood factors (conduct disorder and having been a temple boy, relative probability ratios, RPRs and 95% CI: 6.39, 2.81-14.55 and 2.21, 1.19-4.08, respectively) also significantly predicted alcohol dependence, while perceived poverty and ethnic alienation was reported less frequently by hazardous/harmful drinkers and alcohol-dependents (RPRS and 95% CIs = 0.34, 0.19-0.62 and 0.59, 0.38-0.93, respectively) than the controls. The relative probability ratio for the effect of the father's infrequent drinking on the son's alcohol dependence was 2.92 (95% CI = 1.42-6.02) and for the father's heavy or dependent drinking 2.84 (95% CI=1.31-6.15). Conclusions Being exposed to a light-drinking, father increases the risk of a son's alcohol use disorders exhibited either as hazardous-harmful or dependent drinking. However, exposure to a heavy- or dependent-drinking father is associated more uniquely with an increased risk of his son being alcohol-dependent. The extent to which this is seen in other cultures is worthy of exploration.

Population balance modelling of granulation with a physically based coalescence kernel

It was previously published by the authors that granules can either coalesce through Type I (when granules coalesce by viscous dissipation in the surface liquid layer before their surfaces touch) or Type II (when granules are slowed to a halt during rebound, after their surfaces have made contact) (AIChE J. 46 (3) (2000) 529). Based on this coalescence mechanism, a new coalescence kernel for population balance modelling of granule growth is presented. The kernel is constant such that only collisions satisfying the conditions for one of the two coalescence types are successful. One constant rate is assigned to each type of coalescence and zero is for the case of rebound. As the conditions for Types I and II coalescence are dependent on granule and binder properties, the coalescence kernel is thus physically based. Simulation results of a variety of binder and granule materials show good agreement with experimental data. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact numbers: measures of risk factor impact on the whole population from case-control and cohort studies

Objective: To describe new measures of risk from case-control and cohort studies, which are simple to understand and relate to numbers of the population at risk. Design: Theoretical development of new measures of risk. Setting: Review of literature and previously described measures. Main results: The new measures are: (1) the population impact number (PIN), the number of those in the whole population among whom one case is attributable to the exposure or risk factor (this is equivalent to the reciprocal of the population attributable risk),- (2) the case impact number (CIN) the number of people with the disease or outcome for whom one case will be attributable to the exposure or risk factor (this is equivalent to the reciprocal of the population attributable fraction); (3) the exposure impact number (EIN) the number of people with the exposure among whom one excess case is attributable to the exposure (this is equivalent to the reciprocal of the attributable risk); (4) the exposed cases impact number (ECIN) the number of exposed cases among whom one case is attributable to the exposure (this is equivalent to the reciprocal of the aetiological fraction). The impact number reflects the number of people in each population (the whole population, the cases, all those exposed, and the exposed cases) among whom one case is attributable to the particular risk factor. Conclusions: These new measures should help communicate the impact on a population, of estimates of risk derived from cohort or case-control studies.

Predicting plant leaf area production: shoot assimilate accumulation and partitioning, and leaf area ratio, are stable for a wide range of sorghum population densities

Predicting plant leaf area production is required for modelling carbon balance and tiller dynamics in plant canopies. Plant leaf area production can be studied using a framework based on radiation intercepted, radiation use efficiency (RUE) and leaf area ratio (LAR) (ratio of leaf area to net above-ground biomass). The objective of this study was to test this framework for predicting leaf area production of sorghum during vegetative development by examining the stability of the contributing components over a large range of plant density. Four densities, varying from 2 to 16 plants m(-2), were implemented in a field experiment. Plants were either allowed to tiller or were maintained as uniculm by systematic tiller removal. In all cases, intercepted radiation was recorded daily and leaf area and shoot dry matter partitioning were quantified weekly at individual culm level. Up to anthesis, a unique relationship applied between fraction of intercepted radiation and leaf area index, and between shoot dry weight accumulation and amount of intercepted radiation, regardless of plant density. Partitioning of shoot assimilate between leaf, stem and head was also common across treatments up to anthesis, at both plant and culm levels. The relationship with thermal time (TT) from emergence of specific leaf area (SLA) and LAR of tillering plants did not change with plant density. In contrast, SLA of uniculm plants was appreciably lower under low-density conditions at any given TT from emergence. This was interpreted as a consequence of assimilate surplus arising from the inability of the plant to compensate by increasing the leaf area a culm could produce. It is argued that the stability of the extinction coefficient, RUE and plant LAR of tillering plants observed in these conditions provides a reliable way to predict leaf area production regardless of plant density. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Testing the applicability of molecular genetic markers to population analyses of scleratinian corals

The abundance of coral reefs worldwide is in decline, and despite the ecological importance of reefs, only a limited number of DNA markers have been identified for scleractinian coral genetic studies. This paper addresses the search for new coral molecular markers and investigates the applicability of the cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI), the internal transcribed spacer region 1 (ITS1), and the pocilloporin gene to the question of intraspecific variation in the scleractinian coral Pocillopora verrucosa along the southeast African coastline. The COI fragment was 710 bp long and was identical for P. verrucosa (n = 10) and P. damicornis (n = 3). Only two different ITS1 sequences were found (differing by 13 bp insertion), but more importantly, 24% of the sequences were heterogenous indicating that different multiple copies of the sequence exist. Pocilloporin is an intronless gene that was absolutely conserved throughout all P. verrucosa populations (n = 50). Thus, the three DNA regions studied appear unsuitable for the population genetic analyses of P. verrucosa.

Tillering in grain sorghum over a wide range of population densities: Identification of a common hierarchy for tiller emergence, leaf area development and fertility

Most studies of tiller development have not related the physiological and morphological features of each calm to its subsequent fertility. This introduced problems when trying to account for the effects of tillering on yield in crop models. The objective of this study was to detect the most likely early determinants of tiller fertility in sorghum by identifying hierarchies for emergence, fertility and grain number of tillers over a wide range of assimilate availabilities. Emergence, phenology, leaf area development and dry weight partitioning were quantified weekly for individual tillers and main culms of tillering and uniculm plants grown at one of four densities, from two to 16 plants m(-2). For a given plant in any given density, the same tiller hierarchy applied for emergence of tillers, fertility of the emerged tillers and their subsequent grain number. These results were observed over a range of tiller fertility rates (from 7 to 91%), fertile tiller number per plant at maturity (from 0.2 to 4.7), and tiller contribution to grain yield (from 5 to 78%). Tiller emergence was most probably related to assimilate supply and light quality. Development, fertility and contribution to yield of a specific tiller were highly dependent on growing conditions at the time of tiller emergence, particularly via early leaf area development of the tiller, which affected its subsequent leaf area accumulation. Assimilate availability in the main culm at the time of tiller emergence was the most likely early determinant of subsequent tiller fertility in this study. (C) 2002 Annals of Botany Company.

Tillering in grain sorghum over a wide range of population densities: Modelling dynamics of tiller fertility

The prediction of tillering is poor or absent in existing sorghum crop models even though fertile tillers contribute significantly to grain yield. The objective of this study was to identify general quantitative relationships underpinning tiller dynamics of sorghum for a broad range of assimilate availabilities. Emergence, phenology, leaf area development and fertility of individual main calms and tillers were quantified weekly in plants grown at one of four plant densities ranging from two to 16 plants m(-2). On any given day, a tiller was considered potentially fertile (a posteriori) if its number of leaves continued to increase thereafter. The dynamics of potentially fertile tiller number per plant varied greatly with plant density, but could generally be described by three determinants, stable across plant densities: tiller emergence rate aligned with leaf ligule appearance rate; cessation of tiller emergence occurred at a stable leaf area index; and rate of decrease in potentially fertile tillers was linearly related to the ratio of realized to potential leaf area growth. Realized leaf area growth is the measured increase in leaf area, whereas potential leaf area growth is the estimated increase in leaf area if all potentially fertile tillers were to continue to develop. Procedures to predict this ratio, by estimating realized leaf area per plant from intercepted radiation and potential leaf area per plant from the number and type of developing axes, are presented. While it is suitable for modelling tiller dynamics in grain sorghum, this general framework needs to be validated by testing it in different environments and for other cultivars. (C) 2002 Annals of Botany Company.

A population-based study of the biochemical and clinical expression of the H63D hemochromatosis mutation

Background & Aims: Two major mutations are defined within the hemochromatosis gene, HFE. Although the effects of the C282Y mutation have been well characterized, the effects of the H63D mutation remain unclear. We accessed a well-defined population in Busselton, Australia, and determined the frequency of the H63D mutation and its influence on total body iron stores. Methods: Serum transferrin saturation and ferritin levels were correlated with the H63D mutation in 2531 unrelated white subjects who did not possess the C282Y mutation. Results: Sixty-two subjects (2.1%) were homozygous for the H63D mutation, 711 (23.6%) were heterozygous, and 1758 (58.4%) were wild-type for the H63D mutation. Serum transferrin saturation was significantly increased in male and female H63D homozygotes and heterozygotes compared with wild-types. Serum ferritin levels within each gender were not influenced by H63D genotypes. Elevated transferrin saturation greater than or equal to45% was observed in a greater proportion of male H63D carriers than male wild-types. Male H63D homozygotes (9%) and heterozygotes (3%) were more likely to have both elevated transferrin saturation and elevated ferritin greater than or equal to300 ng/mL than male wild-types (0.7%). Homozygosity for H63D was not associated with the development of clinically significant iron overload. Conclusions: Presence of the H63D mutation results in a significant increase in serum transferrin saturation but does hot result in significant iron overload. In the absence of the C282Y mutation, the H63D mutation is not clinically significant.