Absolute risk of breast cancer for Australian women with a family history

Background: The purpose of the present paper was to estimate the absolute risk of breast cancer over the remainder of a lifetime in Australian women with different categories of family history. Methods: Age-specific breast cancer incidence rates were adjusted for screening effects, and rates in those with no family history were estimated using the attributable fraction (AF). Relative risks from a published meta-analysis were applied to obtain incidence rates for different categories of family history, and age-specific incidence was converted to cumulative risk of breast cancer. The risk estimates were based upon Australian population statistics and published relative risks. Breast cancer incidence was from New South Wales women for 1996. The AF was calculated using prevalence of a family history of breast cancer from data on Queensland women. The cumulative absolute risk of breast cancer was calculated from decade and mid-decade ages to age 79 years, not adjusted for competing causes of death. Results: Lifetime risk is approximately 8.6% (1 in 12) for the general population and 7.8% (1 in 13) for those without a family history. Women with one relative affected have lifetime risks of 1 in 6-8 and those with two relatives affected have lifetime risks of 1 in 4-6. The cumulative residual lifetime risk decreases with advancing age; by age 60 years all groups with only one relative affected have well above a 90% probability of not developing breast cancer to age 79 years. Conclusions: These Australian risk statistics are useful for public information and in the clinical setting. Risks given here apply to women with average breast cancer risk from other risk factors.

Allowing the medical use of cannabis

Cannabis has been advocated as a treatment for nausea, vomiting, wasting, pain and muscle spasm in cancer, HIV/AIDS, and neurological disorders. Such uses are prohibited by law; cannabinoid drugs are not registered for medical use in Australia and a smoked plant product is unlikely to be registered. A New South Wales Working Party has recommended granting exemption from prosecution to patients who are medically certified to have specified medical conditions. This proposal deserves to be considered by other State and Territory governments.

Hair morphine concentrations of fatal heroin overdose cases and living heroin users

Aims To compare heroin and other opiate use of heroin overdose fatalities, current street heroin users and drug-free therapeutic community clients. Design Hair morphine concentrations that assess heroin use and other opiate use in the 2 months preceding interview or death were compared between heroin overdose fatalities diagnosed by forensic pathologists (fOD) (n = 42), current street heroin users (CU) (n = 100) and presumably abstinent heroin users in a drug-free therapeutic community (TC) (n = 50). Setting Sydney, Australia. Findings The mean age and gender breakdown of the three samples were 32.3 years, 83% male (FOD), 28.7 years, 58% male (CU) and 28.6 years, 60% male (TC). The median blood morphine concentration among the FOD cases was 0.35 mg/l, and 82% also had other drugs detected. There were large differences between the three groups in hair morphine concentrations, with the CU group (2.10 ng/mg) having concentration approximately four times that of the FOD group (0.53 ng/mg), which in turn had a concentration approximately six times that of the TC group (0.09 ng/mg). There were no significant differences between males and females in hair concentrations within any of the groups. Hair morphine concentrations were correlated significantly with blood morphine concentrations among FOD cases (r = 0.54), and self-reported heroin use among living participants (r = 0.57). Conclusions The results indicate that fatal cases had a lower degree of chronic opiate intake than the active street users, but they were not abstinent during this period.

Extrinsic versus intrinsic factors in the decline and extinction of Australian marsupials

Recent attempts to explain the susceptibility of vertebrates to declines worldwide have largely focused on intrinsic factors such as body size, reproductive potential, ecological specialization, geographical range and phylogenetic longevity. Here, we use a database of 145 Australian marsupial species to test the effects of both intrinsic and extrinsic factors in a multivariate comparative approach. We model five intrinsic (body size, habitat specialization, diet, reproductive rate and range size) and four extrinsic (climate and range overlap with introduced foxes, sheep and rabbits) factors. We use quantitative measures of geographical range contraction as indices of decline. We also develop a new modelling approach of phylogenetically independent contrasts combined with imputation of missing values to deal simultaneously with phylogenetic structuring and missing data. One extrinsic variable-geographical range overlap with sheep-was the only consistent predictor of declines. Habitat specialization was independently but less consistently associated with declines. This suggests that extrinsic factors largely determine interspecific variation in extinction risk among Australian marsupials, and that the intrinsic factors that are consistently associated with extinction risk in other vertebrates are less important in this group. We conclude that recent anthropogenic changes have been profound enough to affect species on a continent-wide scale, regardless of their intrinsic biology.

Increased rates of ENT surgery among young children: Have clinical guidelines made a difference?

Objectives: To examine the association between introduction of paediatric ear, nose and throat (ENT) surgery guidelines and population procedure rates. To determine changes in children's risk of undergoing ENT surgery. Methods: Trend analysis of incidence of myringotomy, tonsillectomy and adenoidectomy among New South Wales (NSW) children aged 0-14 between 1981 and mid 1999. Poisson regression models were used to estimate annual rates of change pre and postguidelines introduction and age/gender specific rates, and lifetable methods to determine risk of undergoing an ENT procedure by age 15. Results: ENT surgery rates increased by 21% over the study period. Children's risk of surgery increased from 17.9% in 1981 to 20.2% in 1998/99. Guideline introduction was associated with moderate short-term decreases in rates. For tonsillectomy, rates decreased between 1981 and 1983, but then rose continually until the introduction of myringotomy guidelines in 1993, when they fell, only to recommence rising until the end of the study period. For myringotomy, rates rose annually from 1981 to 1992/93 and fell in the 3 years following guideline introduction, after which they rose again. Increases were almost exclusively restricted to children aged 0-4 and correspond with increased use of formal childcare. The prevalence of myringotomy by the age of 5 years rose from 5.6% of children born in 1988/89 to 6.4% of those born in 1994/95, and the prevalence of tonsillectomy from 2.4% to 2.7%. Conclusions: The risk of young Australian children undergoing ENT surgery increased significantly over the last two decades despite the introduction of guidelines and no evidence of an increase in otitis media, one condition prompting surgery. Surgery increased most among the very young. We hypothesize this is related to increasing use of childcare.

Cancer detection and mammogram volume of radiologists in a population-based screening programme

This study investigates the relationship between the number of screening mammograms read by radiologists and the screening breast cancer detection rate. Cancer detection rates for incident screens (all women aged >= 40 years) were compared by increasing categories of reader volume using Poisson regression. Data from New South Wales (NSW) for a 2 year period (2000-2001) were obtained from the BreastScreen NSW programme. Cancer detection rates increased with the number of mammograms read in the programme, reaching a plateau of approximately 40 per 10,000 after 1375 mammograms per year. No significant differences in cancer detection were evident above 875 mammograms (compared to below 875 mammograms) per year (RR = 0.79, 95% CI 0.63-0.99). (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The impact of diabetes on survival among patients with first myocardial infarction

OBJECTIVE - The purpose of this paper is to estimate the impact of diabetes on survival among patients with first acute myocardial infarction, using data from the World Health Organization (WHO) Monitoring Trends and Determinants of Cardiovascular Disease (MONICA) Project in Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS - The WHO MONICA Project is a community-based surveillance system that monitors coronary heart disease morbidity and mortality. All patients with suspected coronary events were observed for 28 days after the onset of symptoms. RESULTS - Of 5,322 patients with acute myocardial infarction and no previous history of ischemic heart disease (3,643 men and 1,679 women), 333 men (9%) and 224 women (13%) had a history of diabetes. The age-adjusted 28-day case fatality for women with diabetes (25%) was significantly higher than for women without diabetes (16%); relative risk 1.56 (95% CI: 1.19-2.04). The difference for men was also significant (25% with diabetes and 20% without diabetes); relative risk 1.25 (95% CI: 1.02-1.53). Age-specific case fatality increased significantly with age in both men and women without diabetes, but systematic age effects were not so apparent in patients with diabetes. Case fatality significantly decreased over the study period in patients without diabetes, but not among the diabetic patients. CONCLUSIONS - The increased risk of death in the diabetic patients remained after accounting for their poorer risk factor profiles; even if they reached the hospital alive, diabetic patients were also less likely to survive than nondiabetic patients. The relative impact of diabetes on survival is greater in women than in men.

Fossil trees in ancient fluvial channel deposits: evidence of seasonal and longer-term climatic variability

It has been established that large numbers of certain trees can survive in the beds of rivers of northeastern Australia where a strongly seasonal distribution of precipitation causes extreme variations in flow on both a yearly and longer-term basis. In these rivers, minimal flow occurs throughout much of any year and for periods of up to several years, allowing the trees to become established and to adapt their form in order to facilitate their survival in environments that experience periodic inundation by fast-flowing, debris-laden water. Such trees (notably paperbark trees of the angiosperm genus Melaleuca) adopt a reclined to prostrate, downstream-trailing habit, have a multiple-stemmed form, modified crown with weeping foliage, development of thick, spongy bark, anchoring of roots into firm to lithified substrates beneath the channel floor, root regeneration, and develop in flow-parallel, linear groves. Individuals from within flow-parallel, linear groves are preserved in situ within the alluvial deposit of the river following burial and death. Four examples of in situ tree fossils within alluvial channel deposits in the Permian of eastern Australia demonstrate that specialised riverbed plant communities also existed at times in the geological past. These examples, from the Lower Permian Carmila Beds, Upper Permian Moranbah Coal Measures and Baralaba Coal Measures of central Queensland and the Upper Permian Newcastle Coal Measures of central New South Wales, show several of the characteristics of trees described from modern rivers in northeastern Australia, including preservation in closely-spaced groups. These properties, together with independent sedimentological evidence, suggest that the Permian trees were adapted to an environment affected by highly variable runoff, albeit in a more temperate climatic situation than the modem Australian examples. It is proposed that occurrences of fossil trees preserved in situ within alluvial channel deposits may be diagnostic of environments controlled by seasonal and longer-term variability in fluvial runoff, and hence may have value in interpreting aspects of palaeoclimate from ancient alluvial successions. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Species and regional variations in the effectiveness of antivenom against the in Vitro neurotoxicity of death adder (Acanthophis) venoms

Although viperlike in appearance and habit, death adders belong to the Elapidae family of snakes. Systemic envenomation represents a serious medical problem with antivenom, which is raised against Acanthophis antarcticus venom, representing the primary treatment. This study focused on the major Acanthophis variants from Australia and islands in the Indo-Pacific region. Venoms were profiled using liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry, and analyzed for in vitro neurotoxicity (0.3-10 mug/ml), as well as the effectiveness of antivenom. (1-5 units/ml; 10 min prior to the addition of 10 mug/ml venom). The following death adder venoms were examined: A. antarcticus (from separate populations in New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia, and Western Australia), A. hawkei, A. praelongus, A. pyrrhus, A. rugosus, A. wellsi, and venom from an unnamed species from the Indonesian island of Seram. All venoms abolished indirect twitches of the chick isolated biventer cervicis nerve-muscle preparation in a dose-dependent manner. In addition, all venoms blocked responses to exogenous acetylcholine (1 m-M) and carbachol (20 muM), but not KCl (40 mM), suggesting postsynaptic neurotoxicity. Death adder antivenom (1 unit/ml) prevented the neurotoxic effects of A. pyrrhus, A. praelongus, and A. hawkei venoms, although it was markedly less effective against venoms from A. antarcticus (NSW, SA, WA), A. rugosus, A. wellsi, and A. sp. Scram. However, at 5 units/ml, antivenom was effective against all venoms tested. Death adder venoms, including those from A. antarcticus geographic variants, differed not only in their venom composition but also in their neurotoxic activity and susceptibility to antivenom. For the first time toxicological aspects of A. hawkei, A. wellsi, A. rugosus, and A. sp. Seram venoms were studied. (C) 2001 Academic Press.

Diversity of Phytophthora clandestina isolated from subterranean clover in southern australia: Analysis of virulence and RAPD profiles

The virulence spectrum of 112 isolates of Phytophthora clandestina collected from 56 sites in four subterranean clover-growing states in southern Australia was determined using differential cultivars of subterranean clover. Five races were detected, with race 0 in all states except New South Wales, race 1 in all states, race 2 only in Victoria, race 3 only in New South Wales, and race 4 in Victoria and Western Australia. The level of genotypic diversity among the different P. clandestina populations was investigated using five RAPD primers. Among 30 bands amplified, only two were polymorphic. This enabled identification of four multilocus RAPD genotypes. Three of the four genotypes occurred in all four states. Races 2 and 3 occurred with RAPD genotypes 1 and 2 only whereas races 0 and 1 occurred in all four multilocus RAPD genotypes. These results indicate that the pathogenicity spectrum of P. clandestina can change rapidly.

Maternal care and infant behaviour of the bridled nailtail wallaby (Onychogalea fraenata)

Bridled nailtail wallabies Onychogalea fraenata are endangered, medium-sized, nocturnal macropodids that persist at only one location in central Queensland, Australia. Characteristics of juvenile development, shelter use, anti-predator behaviour and maternal care were investigated in the wild using trapping, radio-tracking and spotlighting observations., Timing of developmental stages was identical to the pattern previously found in captivity, except for age at weaning which was much earlier in the wild. After young had left the pouch permanently at 17 weeks of age and weighing c. 800 g, they always spent the day concealed in dense cover, generally > 200 m from their mothers. Juveniles were also alone in > 50% of observations at night, and stayed closer to cover than did adult females. Young became independent of their mothers 7-8 weeks after permanent exit from the pouch and weighing c. 1800 g. Females with dependent juveniles changed their behaviour in ways likely to reduce predation on young. They reduced their home ranges, stayed closer to cover and became more wary than other females. Juveniles differed from adult females in their habitat use, anti-predator behaviour and shelter site preferences. Juveniles were more likely than adults to respond to threats by standing still or lying flat on the ground, whether or not they were in concealing cover. Juveniles used a wider range of smaller shelters than adults, and were less likely to use solid shelters such as hollow logs during the day. Because bridled nailtail wallabies have a 'hider' strategy of maternal care and the young rely on crypsis, successful breeding in the wild requires dense vegetation cover.

Field test of a model of migration of moths (Lepidoptera : Noctuidae) in inland Australia

A migration of Helicoverpa punctigera (Wallengren), Heliothis punctifera (Walker) and Agrotis munda Walker was tracked from Cameron Corner (29degrees00'S, 141degrees00'E) in inland Australia to the Wilcannia region, approximately 400 km to the south-east. A relatively isolated source population was located using a distribution model to predict winter breeding, and confirmed by surveys using sweep netting for larvae. When a synoptic weather pattern likely to produce suitable conditions for migration developed, moths were trapped in the source region. The next morning a simulation model of migration using wind-field data generated by a numerical weather-prediction model was run. Surveys using sweep netting for larvae, trapping and flush counts were then conducted in and around the predicted moth fallout area, approximately 400 km to the south-east. Pollen carried on the probosces of moths caught in this area was compared with that on moths caught in the source area. The survey data and pollen comparisons provided evidence that migration had occurred, and that the migration model gave accurate estimation of the fallout region. The ecological and economic implications of such migrations are discussed.