Mathematical modelling of schistosomiasis japonica: comparison of control strategies in the People's Republic of China

We present the first mathematical model on the transmission dynamics of Schistosoma japonicum. The work extends Barbour's classic model of schistosome transmission. It allows for the mammalian host heterogeneity characteristic of the S. japonicum life cycle, and solves the problem of under-specification of Barbour's model by the use of Chinese data we are collecting on human-bovine transmission in the Poyang Lake area of Jiangxi Province in China. The model predicts that in the lake/marshland areas of the Yangtze River basin: (1) once-early mass chemotherapy of humans is little better than twice-yearly mass chemotherapy in reducing human prevalence. Depending on the heterogeneity of prevalence within the population, targeted treatment of high prevalence groups, with lower overall coverage, can be more effective than mass treatment with higher overall coverage. Treatment confers a short term benefit only, with prevalence rising to endemic levels once chemotherapy programs are stopped (2) depending on the relative contributions of bovines and humans, bovine treatment can benefit humans almost as much as human treatment. Like human treatment, bovine treatment confers a short-term benefit. A combination of human and bovine treatment will dramatically reduce human prevalence and maintains the reduction for a longer period of time than treatment of a single host, although human prevalence rises once treatment ceases; (3) assuming 75% coverage of bovines, a bovine vaccine which acts on worm fecundity must have about 75% efficacy to reduce the reproduction rate below one and ensure mid-term reduction and long-term elimination of the parasite. Such a vaccination program should be accompanied by an initial period of human treatment to instigate a short-term reduction in prevalence, following which the reduction is enhanced by vaccine effects; (4) if the bovine vaccine is only 45% efficacious (the level of current prototype vaccines) it will lower the endemic prevalence, but will not result in elimination. If it is accompanied by an initial period of human treatment and by a 45% improvement in human sanitation or a 30% reduction in contaminated water contact by humans, elimination is then possible. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Short report: Molecular evaluation of the efficacy of chloroquine treatment of uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria in East Timor

The efficacy of chloroquine treatment of uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria in East Timor was investigated via molecular tools. Genotyping of the polymorphic markers msp1 and msp2 was performed to investigate the number and type of parasite alleles in pre- and posttreatment blood samples collected from 48 patients. Patients were infected with a minimum of 8 msp1 and 14 msp2 allelic types of parasite, and 43% of the patients had more than one allelic type before treatment. The genotyping also revealed that 66.7% of the patients were infected with at least one identical allelic type of parasite before and after treatment and therefore were likely to have experienced recrudescence. All parasites in pre- and posttreatment blood samples carried the K76T mutation in pfcrt, regardless of the clinical response to chloroquine. The sequence polymorphism patterns in pfcrt in the majority of parasites examined were identical to those observed in Bougainville, Papua New Guinea.

Comparative sperm ultrastructure of the Baikalian endemic prosobranch gastropods

Mature euspermatozoan ultrastructure is described for seven species of the rissooidean family Baicaliidae (endemic to Lake Baikal, Russia)-Liobaicalia stiedae, Teratobaikalia ciliata, T. macrostoma, Baicalia carinata, Pseudobaikalia pulla, Maackia bythiniopsis, M. variesculpta, and M. herderiana. For comparison with these species and previously investigated Rissooidea, two species of the Lake Baikal endemic genus Benedictia (B. cf. fragilis and B. baicalensis; Hydrobiidae: Benedictiinae of some authors, Benedictiidae of other authors) in addition to Lithoglyphus naticoides (Hydrobiidae: Lithoglyphinae) and Bythinella austriaca (Hydrobiidae: Bythinellinae) were also investigated. Paraspermatozoa were not observed in any of the species examined, supporting the view that these cells are probably absent in the Rissooidea. In general, the euspermatozoa of all species examined resemble those of many other caenogastropods (basally invaginated acrosomal vesicle, mid-piece with 7-13 helical mitochondria, an annulus, glycogen piece with nine peri-axonemal tracts of granules). However, the presence of a completely flattened acrosomal vesicle and a specialized peri-axonemal membranous sheath (a scroll-like arrangement of 4-6 double membranes) at the termination of the mid-piece, clearly indicates a close relationship between the Baicaliidae and other rissooidean families possessing these features (Bithyniidae, Hydrobiidae, Pyrgulidae, and Stenothyridae). Euspermatozoa of Benedictia, Lithoglyphus, Bythinella, and Pyrgula all have a solid nucleus, which exhibits a short, posterior invagination (housing the centriolar complex and proximal portion of the axoneme). Among the Rissooidea, this form of nucleus is known to occur in the Bithyniidae, Hydrobiidae, Truncatellidae, Pyrgulidae, Iravadiidae, Pomatiopsidae, and Stenothyridae. In contrast, the euspermatozoa of the Baicaliidae all have a long, tubular nucleus, housing not only the centriolar derivative, but also a substantial portion of the axoneme. Among the Rissooidea, a tubular nuclear morphology has previously been seen in the Rissoidae, which could support the view, based on anatomical grounds, that the Baicaliidae may have arisen from a different ancestral source than the Hydrobiidae. However, the two styles of nuclear morphology (short, solid versus long, tubular) occur widely within the Caenogastropoda, and sometimes both within a single family, thereby reducing the phylogenetic importance of nuclear differences within the Rissooidea. More significantly, the occurrence of the highly unusual membranous sheath within the mid-piece region in the Baicaliidae appears to tie this family firmly to the Bithyniidae + Hydrobiidae + Stenothyridae + Pyrgulidae assemblage. Eusperm features of Benedictia spp. strongly resemble those of hydrobiids and bithyniids, and neither support recognition of a distinct family Benedictiidae (at best this is a subfamily of Hydrobiidae) nor any close connection with the hydrobiid subfamily Lithoglyphinae.

Conformationally constrained macrocycles that mimic tripeptide beta-strands in water and aprotic solvents

The beta-strand conformation is unknown for short peptides in aqueous solution, yet it is a fundamental building block in proteins and the crucial recognition motif for proteolytic enzymes that enable formation and turnover of all proteins. To create a generalized scaffold as a peptidomimetic that is preorganized in a beta-strand, we individually synthesized a series of 15-22-membered macrocyclic analogues of tripeptides and analyzed their structures. Each cycle is highly constrained by two trans amide bonds and a planar aromatic ring with a short nonpeptidic linker between them. A measure of this ring strain is the restricted rotation of the component tyrosinyl aromatic ring (DeltaG(rot) 76.7 kJ mol(-1) (16-membered ring), 46.1 kJ mol(-1) (17-membered ring)) evidenced by variable temperature proton NMR spectra (DMF-d(7), 200-400 K). Unusually large amide coupling constants ((3)J(NH-CHalpha) 9-10 Hz) corresponding to large dihedral angles were detected in both protic and aprotic solvents for these macrocycles, consistent with a high degree of structure in solution. The temperature dependence of all amide NH chemical shifts (Deltadelta/T7-12 ppb/deg) precluded the presence of transannular hydrogen bonds that define alternative turn structures. Whereas similar sized conventional cyclic peptides usually exist in solution as an equilibrium mixture of multiple conformers, these macrocycles adopt a well-defined beta-strand structure even in water as revealed by 2-D NMR spectral data and by a structure calculation for the smallest (15-membered) and most constrained macrocycle. Macrocycles that are sufficiently constrained to exclusively adopt a beta-strand-mimicking structure in water may be useful pre-organized and generic templates for the design of compounds that interfere with beta-strand recognition in biology.

Ion transport induced by proteinase-activated receptors (PAR2) in colon and airways

Protease-activated receptors type 2 (PAR2) are activated by serine proteases like trypsin and mast cell tryptase. The function and physiological significance of PAR2 receptors is poorly understood, but recent studies suggest a role during inflammatory processes in both airways and intestine. PAR2 receptors are also likely to participate in the control of ion transport in these tissues. We demonstrate that stimulation of PAR2 in airways and intestine significantly enhanced ion transport. Trypsin induced CI- secretion in both airways and intestine when added to the basolateral but not to the luminal side of these tissues. In both airways and intestine, stimulation of ion transport was largely dependent on the increase in intracellular Ca2+. Effects of trypsin were largely reduced by basolateral bumetanide and barium and by trypsin inhibitor. Thrombin, an activator of proteinase-activated receptors types 1, 3, and 4 had no effects on equivalent short-circuit current in either airways or intestine. Expression of PAR2 in colon and airways was further confirmed by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction. We postulate that these receptors play a significant role in the regulation of electrolyte transport, which might be important during inflammatory diseases of airways and intestine.

On the volume of 4-cycle trades

A 4-cycle trade of volume t corresponds to a simple graph G without isolated vertices, where the edge set can be partitioned into t 4-cycles in at least two different ways such that the two collections of 4-cycles have no 4-cycles in common. The foundation of the trade is v = \V(G)\. This paper determines for which values oft and a there exists a 4-cycle trade of volume t and foundation v.

Short-term autocorrelation in Australian equities

This paper examines the statistical and economic significance of short-term autocorrelation in Australian equities. We document large negative first-order autocorrelation in individual stock returns. Preliminary results suggest this autocorrelation is economically significant, as two simple trading strategies based on the autocorrelation structure appear to yield large risk-adjusted returns. Further analysis, however, shows that these results are driven by the inclusion of small-capitalisation and low-priced stocks which are vulnerable to a number of market-microstructure-related problems. After revising the dataset to mitigate these problems, little evidence of economic significance remains.

On the robustness of short-term interest rate models

This paper investigates the robustness of a range of short–term interest rate models. We examine the robustness of these models over different data sets, time periods, sampling frequencies, and estimation techniques. We examine a range of popular one–factor models that allow the conditional mean (drift) and conditional variance (diffusion) to be functions of the current short rate. We find that parameter estimates are highly sensitive to all of these factors in the eight countries that we examine. Since parameter estimates are not robust, these models should be used with caution in practice.

Life cycle evolution in the Digenea: a new perspective from phylogeny

We use a new molecular phylogeny, developed from small and large subunit ribosomal RNA genes, to explore evolution of the digenean life cycle. Our approach is to map character states on the phylogeny and then use parsimony to infer how the character evolved. We conclude that, plesiomorphically, digenean miracidia hatched from eggs and penetrated gastropod first intermediate hosts externally. Fork-tailed cercariae were produced in rediae and emerged from the snail to be eaten directly by the teleost definitive host. These plesiomorphic characters are seen in extant Bivesiculidae. We infer that external encystment and the use of second intermediate hosts are derived from this behaviour and that second intermediate hosts have been adopted repeatedly. Tetrapod definitive hosts have also been adopted repeatedly. The new phylogeny proposes a basal dichotomy between 'Diplostomida' (Diplostomoidea, Schistosomatoidea and Brachylaimoidea) and 'Plagiorchiida' (all other digeneans). There is no evidence for coevolution between these clades and groups of gastropods. The most primitive life cycles are seen in basal Plagiorchiida. Basal Diplostomida have three-host life cycles and are associated with tetrapods. The blood flukes (Schistosomatoidea) are inferred to have derived their two-host life cycles by abbreviating three-host cycles. Diplostomida have no adult stages in fishes except by life cycle abbreviation. We present and test a radical hypothesis that the blood-fluke cycle is plesiomorphic within the Diplostomida.

Skolem-type difference sets for cycle systems

Cyclic m-cycle systems of order v are constructed for all m greater than or equal to 3, and all v = 1(mod 2m). This result has been settled previously by several authors. In this paper, we provide a different solution, as a consequence of a more general result, which handles all cases using similar methods and which also allows us to prove necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of a cyclic m-cycle system of K-v - F for all m greater than or equal to 3, and all v = 2(mod 2m).

A unified model of flames as gasdynamic discontinuities

Viewed on a hydrodynamic scale, flames in experiments are often thin so that they may be described as gasdynamic discontinuities separating the dense cold fresh mixture from the light hot burned products. The original model of a flame as a gasdynamic discontinuity was due to Darrieus and to Landau. In addition to the fluid dynamical equations, the model consists of a flame speed relation describing the evolution of the discontinuity surface, and jump conditions across the surface which relate the fluid variables on the two sides of the surface. The Darrieus-Landau model predicts, in contrast to observations, that a uniformly propagating planar flame is absolutely unstable and that the strength of the instability grows with increasing perturbation wavenumber so that there is no high-wavenumber cutoff of the instability. The model was modified by Markstein to exhibit a high-wavenumber cutoff if a phenomenological constant in the model has an appropriate sign. Both models are postulated, rather than derived from first principles, and both ignore the flame structure, which depends on chemical kinetics and transport processes within the flame. At present, there are two models which have been derived, rather than postulated, and which are valid in two non-overlapping regions of parameter space. Sivashinsky derived a generalization of the Darrieus-Landau model which is valid for Lewis numbers (ratio of thermal diffusivity to mass diffusivity of the deficient reaction component) bounded away from unity. Matalon & Matkowsky derived a model valid for Lewis numbers close to unity. Each model has its own advantages and disadvantages. Under appropriate conditions the Matalon-Matkowsky model exhibits a high-wavenumber cutoff of the Darrieus-Landau instability. However, since the Lewis numbers considered lie too close to unity, the Matalon-Matkowsky model does not capture the pulsating instability. The Sivashinsky model does capture the pulsating instability, but does not exhibit its high-wavenumber cutoff. In this paper, we derive a model consisting of a new flame speed relation and new jump conditions, which is valid for arbitrary Lewis numbers. It captures the pulsating instability and exhibits the high-wavenumber cutoff of all instabilities. The flame speed relation includes the effect of short wavelengths, not previously considered, which leads to stabilizing transverse surface diffusion terms.