Long-range automaton models of earthquakes: Power-law accelerations, correlation evolution, and mode-switching

We introduce a conceptual model for the in-plane physics of an earthquake fault. The model employs cellular automaton techniques to simulate tectonic loading, earthquake rupture, and strain redistribution. The impact of a hypothetical crustal elastodynamic Green's function is approximated by a long-range strain redistribution law with a r(-p) dependance. We investigate the influence of the effective elastodynamic interaction range upon the dynamical behaviour of the model by conducting experiments with different values of the exponent (p). The results indicate that this model has two distinct, stable modes of behaviour. The first mode produces a characteristic earthquake distribution with moderate to large events preceeded by an interval of time in which the rate of energy release accelerates. A correlation function analysis reveals that accelerating sequences are associated with a systematic, global evolution of strain energy correlations within the system. The second stable mode produces Gutenberg-Richter statistics, with near-linear energy release and no significant global correlation evolution. A model with effectively short-range interactions preferentially displays Gutenberg-Richter behaviour. However, models with long-range interactions appear to switch between the characteristic and GR modes. As the range of elastodynamic interactions is increased, characteristic behaviour begins to dominate GR behaviour. These models demonstrate that evolution of strain energy correlations may occur within systems with a fixed elastodynamic interaction range. Supposing that similar mode-switching dynamical behaviour occurs within earthquake faults then intermediate-term forecasting of large earthquakes may be feasible for some earthquakes but not for others, in alignment with certain empirical seismological observations. Further numerical investigation of dynamical models of this type may lead to advances in earthquake forecasting research and theoretical seismology.

Evolution of additive and nonadditive genetic variance in development time along a cline in Drosophila serrata

Latitudinal clines provide natural systems that may allow the effect of natural selection on the genetic variance to be determined. Ten clinal populations of Drosophila serrata collected from the eastern coast of Australia were used to examine clinal patterns in the trait mean and genetic variance of the life-history trait egg-to-adult development time. Development time significantly lengthened from tropical areas to temperate areas. The additive genetic variance for development time in each population was not associated with latitude but was associated with the population mean development time. Additive genetic variance tended to be larger in populations with more extreme development times and appeared to be consistent with allele frequency change. In contrast, the nonadditive genetic variance was not associated with the population mean but was associated with latitude. Levels of nonadditive genetic variance were greatest in the region of the cline where the gradient in the change in mean was greatest, consistent with Barton's (1999) conjecture that the generation of linkage disequilibrium may become an important component of the genetic variance in systems with a spatially varying optimum.

Structure of the gut contents of Trichogramma australicum Girault (Hymenoptera : Trichogrammatidae) larvae fixed in situ in eggs of its host Helicoverpa armigera (Hubner) (Lepidoptera : Noctuidae)

Trichogramma australicum larvae develop most rapidly in younger eggs of its host, the pest lepidopteran Helicoverpa armigera . To establish how the developmental stage of the host affects the diet of T. australicum , larvae were fixed in situ in eggs of H. armigera of different ages and the structure of the egg contents and parasitoid gut contents examined histologically. Larvae feeding on newly laid host eggs contain primarily yolk particles in their gut, while larvae feeding on older hosts contain necrotic cells and yolk particles. The gut of T. australicum larvae does not contain organised tissue remnants, indicating that larvae feed primarily by sucking food into their pharynx and feed best on a mixture of particulate semisolids in a liquid matrix. Secretory structures of T. australicum larvae that could be involved in modifying the host environment were examined. The hindgut is modified to form an anal vesicle with a number of attributes suggesting that it may be a specialised secretory structure. The paired salivary glands open to the exterior via a common duct.

The use of stochastic dynamic programming in optimal landscape reconstruction for metapopulations

A decision theory framework can be a powerful technique to derive optimal management decisions for endangered species. We built a spatially realistic stochastic metapopulation model for the Mount Lofty Ranges Southern Emu-wren (Stipiturus malachurus intermedius), a critically endangered Australian bird. Using diserete-time Markov,chains to describe the dynamics of a metapopulation and stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) to find optimal solutions, we evaluated the following different management decisions: enlarging existing patches, linking patches via corridors, and creating a new patch. This is the first application of SDP to optimal landscape reconstruction and one of the few times that landscape reconstruction dynamics have been integrated with population dynamics. SDP is a powerful tool that has advantages over standard Monte Carlo simulation methods because it can give the exact optimal strategy for every landscape configuration (combination of patch areas and presence of corridors) and pattern of metapopulation occupancy, as well as a trajectory of strategies. It is useful when a sequence of management actions can be performed over a given time horizon, as is the case for many endangered species recovery programs, where only fixed amounts of resources are available in each time step. However, it is generally limited by computational constraints to rather small networks of patches. The model shows that optimal metapopulation, management decisions depend greatly on the current state of the metapopulation,. and there is no strategy that is universally the best. The extinction probability over 30 yr for the optimal state-dependent management actions is 50-80% better than no management, whereas the best fixed state-independent sets of strategies are only 30% better than no management. This highlights the advantages of using a decision theory tool to investigate conservation strategies for metapopulations. It is clear from these results that the sequence of management actions is critical, and this can only be effectively derived from stochastic dynamic programming. The model illustrates the underlying difficulty in determining simple rules of thumb for the sequence of management actions for a metapopulation. This use of a decision theory framework extends the capacity of population viability analysis (PVA) to manage threatened species.

A new method for analysing the equilibrium and time-dependent behaviour of Markovian models

Many large-scale stochastic systems, such as telecommunications networks, can be modelled using a continuous-time Markov chain. However, it is frequently the case that a satisfactory analysis of their time-dependent, or even equilibrium, behaviour is impossible. In this paper, we propose a new method of analyzing Markovian models, whereby the existing transition structure is replaced by a more amenable one. Using rates of transition given by the equilibrium expected rates of the corresponding transitions of the original chain, we are able to approximate its behaviour. We present two formulations of the idea of expected rates. The first provides a method for analysing time-dependent behaviour, while the second provides a highly accurate means of analysing equilibrium behaviour. We shall illustrate our approach with reference to a variety of models, giving particular attention to queueing and loss networks. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The variety of variables in automated real-time refinement

The refinement calculus is a well-established theory for deriving program code from specifications. Recent research has extended the theory to handle timing requirements, as well as functional ones, and we have developed an interactive programming tool based on these extensions. Through a number of case studies completed using the tool, this paper explains how the tool helps the programmer by supporting the many forms of variables needed in the theory. These include simple state variables as in the untimed calculus, trace variables that model the evolution of properties over time, auxiliary variables that exist only to support formal reasoning, subroutine parameters, and variables shared between parallel processes.

A high definition, finite difference time domain method

A high definition, finite difference time domain (HD-FDTD) method is presented in this paper. This new method allows the FDTD method to be efficiently applied over a very large frequency range including low frequencies, which are problematic for conventional FDTD methods. In the method, no alterations to the properties of either the source or the transmission media are required. The method is essentially frequency independent and has been verified against analytical solutions within the frequency range 50 Hz-1 GHz. As an example of the lower frequency range, the method has been applied to the problem of induced eddy currents in the human body resulting from the pulsed magnetic field gradients of an MRI system. The new method only requires approximately 0.3% of the source period to obtain an accurate solution. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

Fast, scalable master equation solution algorithms. III. Direct time propagation accelerated by a diffusion approximation preconditioned iterative solver

In this paper we propose a novel fast and linearly scalable method for solving master equations arising in the context of gas-phase reactive systems, based on an existent stiff ordinary differential equation integrator. The required solution of a linear system involving the Jacobian matrix is achieved using the GMRES iteration preconditioned using the diffusion approximation to the master equation. In this way we avoid the cubic scaling of traditional master equation solution methods and maintain the low temperature robustness of numerical integration. The method is tested using a master equation modelling the formation of propargyl from the reaction of singlet methylene with acetylene, proceeding through long lived isomerizing intermediates. (C) 2003 American Institute of Physics.

Characterization of the acidic properties of mesoporous aluminosilicates synthesized from leached saponite with additional aluminum incorporation

The acidic properties of hexagonal mesoporous aluminosilicates synthesized via a new successful short time synthesis route using leached saponite and a low concentration of surfactant are thoroughly investigated. The resulting aluminosilicate mesoporous materials with high Si/Al ratios of around 11 have a maximal surface area of 1130 m(2)/g, a pore volume of 0.92 cm(3)/g, and a narrow pore size distribution at around 3 nm. The replacement of the sodium ions, present as counterions in the synthesized aluminosilicates, with protons imparts useful catalytic acidity. This acidity is extensively studied with FTIR spectroscopy after adsorption of ammonia and cyclohexylamine, while deuterated acetonitrile differentiates between Bronsted and Lewis acidity. Al-27 NMR spectroscopy determined the coordination of the aluminum in the FSM materials. Simultaneously the effect of an additional Al incorporation, utilizing sodium aluminate, aluminum nitrate, and aluminum isopropoxide is studied. From an acidic point of view, the incorporation with Al(NO3)(3) appears to be the most optimal, as the sample has a very high amount of acid sites (1.3 mmol/g). Investigating the nature of the acid sites it is found that in all samples except the one incorporated with Al(NO3)(3), more Bronsted than Lewis sites are present, both sites being quite acidic as they resist desorption temperatures up to 300 degreesC. Probing the coordination and location of the Al atoms, all the catalysts appeared to have mostly tetrahedral aluminum, up to 95% of the total Al amount for the proton exchanged AI(NO3)(3) incorporated sample.

Review of time-domain polarization measurements for assessing insulation condition in aged transformers

This paper presents a review of the time-domain polarization measurement techniques for the condition assessment of aged transformer insulation. The polarization process is first described with appropriate dielectric response theories and then commonly used polarization methods are described with special emphasis on the most widely used return voltage(rv) measurement. Most recent emphasis has been directed to techniques of determining moisture content of insulation indirectly by measuring rv parameters. The major difficulty still lies with the accurate interpretation of return voltage results. This paper investigates different thoughts regarding the interpretation of rv results for different moisture and ageing conditions. Other time domain polarization measurement techniques and their results are also presented in this paper.

An advanced method for eliminating impacts from frequency deviations in power system signal processing

Frequency deviation is a common problem for power system signal processing. Many power system measurements are carried out in a fixed sampling rate assuming the system operates in its nominal frequency (50 or 60 Hz). However, the actual frequency may deviate from the normal value from time to time due to various reasons such as disturbances and subsequent system transients. Measurement of signals based on a fixed sampling rate may introduce errors under such situations. In order to achieve high precision signal measurement appropriate algorithms need to be employed to reduce the impact from frequency deviation in the power system data acquisition process. This paper proposes an advanced algorithm to enhance Fourier transform for power system signal processing. The algorithm is able to effectively correct frequency deviation under fixed sampling rate. Accurate measurement of power system signals is essential for the secure and reliable operation of power systems. The algorithm is readily applicable to such occasions where signal processing is affected by frequency deviation. Both mathematical proof and numerical simulation are given in this paper to illustrate robustness and effectiveness of the proposed algorithm. Crown Copyright (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.