Infusing the use of seasonal climate forecasting into crop management practice in North East Australia using discussion support software

Seasonal climate forecasting offers potential for improving management of crop production risks in the cropping systems of NE Australia. But how is this capability best connected to management practice? Over the past decade, we have pursued participative systems approaches involving simulation-aided discussion with advisers and decision-makers. This has led to the development of discussion support software as a key vehicle for facilitating infusion of forecasting capability into practice. In this paper, we set out the basis of our approach, its implementation and preliminary evaluation. We outline the development of the discussion support software Whopper Cropper, which was designed for, and in close consultation with, public and private advisers. Whopper Cropper consists of a database of simulation output and a graphical user interface to generate analyses of risks associated with crop management options. The charts produced provide conversation pieces for advisers to use with their farmer clients in relation to the significant decisions they face. An example application, detail of the software development process and an initial survey of user needs are presented. We suggest that discussion support software is about moving beyond traditional notions of supply-driven decision support systems. Discussion support software is largely demand-driven and can compliment participatory action research programs by providing cost-effective general delivery of simulation-aided discussions about relevant management actions. The critical role of farm management advisers and dialogue among key players is highlighted. We argue that the discussion support concept, as exemplified by the software tool Whopper Cropper and the group processes surrounding it, provides an effective means to infuse innovations, like seasonal climate forecasting, into farming practice. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling the activated sludge flocculation process combining laser light diffraction particle sizing and population balance modelling (PBM)

A technique based on laser light diffraction is shown to be successful in collecting on-line experimental data. Time series of floc size distributions (FSD) under different shear rates (G) and calcium additions were collected. The steady state mass mean diameter decreased with increasing shear rate G and increased when calcium additions exceeded 8 mg/l. A so-called population balance model (PBM) was used to describe the experimental data, This kind of model describes both aggregation and breakage through birth and death terms. A discretised PBM was used since analytical solutions of the integro-partial differential equations are non-existing. Despite the complexity of the model, only 2 parameters need to be estimated: the aggregation rate and the breakage rate. The model seems, however, to lack flexibility. Also, the description of the floc size distribution (FSD) in time is not accurate.

Cost comparison of hospital- and home-based treatment models for acute chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

This trial compared the cost of an integrated home-based care model with traditional inpatient care for acute chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). 25 patients with acute COPD were randomised to either home or hospital management following request for hospital admission. The acute care at home group costs per separation ($745, CI95% $595-$895, n = 13) were significantly lower (p < 0.01) than the hospital group ($2543, CI95% $1766-$3321, n = 12). There was an improvement in lung function in the hospital-managed group at the Outpatient Department review, decreased anxiety in the Emergency Department in the home-managed group and equal patient satisfaction with care delivery. Acute care at home schemes can substitute for usual hospital care for some patients without adverse effects, and potentially release resources. A funding model that allows adequate resource delivery to the community will be needed if there is a move to devolve acute care to community providers.

Opportunity cost of ad hoc marine reserve design decisions: an example from South Australia

Like many states and territories, South Australia has a legacy of marine reserves considered to be inadequate to meet current conservation objectives. In this paper we configured exploratory marine reserve systems, using the software MARXAN, to examine how efficiently South Australia's existing marine reserves contribute to quantitative biodiversity conservation targets. Our aim was to compare marine reserve systems that retain South Australia's existing marine reserves with reserve systems that are free to either ignore or incorporate them. We devised a new interpretation of irreplaceability to identify planning units selected more than could be expected from chance alone. This is measured by comparing the observed selection frequency for an individual planning unit with a predicted selection frequency distribution. Knowing which sites make a valuable contribution to efficient marine reserve system design allows us to determine how well South Australia's existing reserves contribute to reservation goals when representation targets are set at 5, 10, 15, 20, 30 and 50% of conservation features. Existing marine reserves that tail to contribute to efficient marine reserve systems constitute 'opportunity costs'. We found that despite spanning less than 4% of South Australian state waters, locking in the existing ad hoc marine reserves presented considerable opportunity costs. Even with representation targets set at 50%, more than halt of South Australia's existing marine reserves were selected randomly or less in efficient marine reserve systems. Hence, ad hoc marine reserve systems are likely to be inefficient and may compromise effective conservation of marine biodiversity.

A mathematical model of recovery of dense medium magnetics in the wet drum magnetic separator

Loss of magnetic medium solids from dense medium circuits is a substantial contributor to operating cost. Much of this loss is by way of wet drum magnetic separator effluent. A model of the separator would be useful for process design, optimisation and control. A review of the literature established that although various rules of thumb exist, largely based on empirical or anecdotal evidence, there is no model of magnetics recovery in a wet drum magnetic separator which includes as inputs all significant machine and operating variables. A series of trials, in both factorial experiments and in single variable experiments, was therefore carried out using a purpose built rig which featured a small industrial scale (700 mm lip length, 900 mm diameter) wet drum magnetic separator. A substantial data set of 191 trials was generated in the work. The results of the factorial experiments were used to identify the variables having a significant effect on magnetics recovery. Observations carried out as an adjunct to this work, as well as magnetic theory, suggests that the capture of magnetic particles in the wet drum magnetic separator is by a flocculation process. Such a process should be defined by a flocculation rate and a flocculation time; the latter being defined by the volumetric flowrate and the volume within the separation zone. A model based on this concept and containing adjustable parameters was developed. This model was then fitted to a randomly chosen 80% of the data, and validated by application to the remaining 20%. The model is shown to provide a satisfactory fit to the data over three orders of magnitude of magnetics loss. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science BY. All rights reserved.

Warranty and optimal reliability improvement through product development

For products sold with warranty, the warranty servicing cost can be reduced by improving product reliability through a development process. However, this increases the unit manufacturing cost. Optimal development must achieve a trade-off between these two costs. The outcome of the development process is uncertain and needs to be taken into account in the determination of the optimal development effort. The paper develops a model where this uncertainty is taken into account. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Full-scale demonstration of biological nutrient removal in a single tank SBR process

Complete biological nutrient removal (BNR) in a single tank, sequencing batch reactor (SBR) process, is demonstrated here at full-scale on a typical domestic wastewater. The unique feature of the UniFed process is the introduction of the influent into the settled sludge blanket during the settling and decant periods of the SBR operation. This achieves suitable conditions for denitrification and anaerobic phosphate release which is critical to successful biological phosphorus removal, It also achieves a selector effect, which helps in generating a compact, well settling biomass in the reactor. The results of this demonstration show that it is possible to achieve well over 90% removal of GOD, nitrogen and phosphorus in such a process. Effluent quality achieved over a six-month operating period directly after commissioning was: 29 mg/l GOD, 0.5 mg/l NH4-N, 1.5 mg/l NOx-N and 1.5 mg/l PO4-P (50%-iles of daily samples). During an 8-day, intensive sampling period, the effluent BOD5 was