Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for burden of disease and risk factor estimates

Epidemiological studies report confidence or uncertainty intervals around their estimates. Estimates of the burden of diseases and risk factors are subject to a broader range of uncertainty because of the combination of multiple data sources and value choices. Sensitivity analysis can be used to examine the effects of social values that have been incorporated into the design of the disability–adjusted life year (DALY). Age weight, where a year of healthy life lived at one age is valued differently from at another age, is the most controversial value built into the DALY. The discount rate, which addresses the difference in value of current versus future health benefits, also has been criticized. The distribution of the global disease burden and rankings of various conditions are largely insensitive to alternate assumptions about the discount rate and age weighting. The major effects of discounting and age weighting are to enhance the importance of neuropsychiatric conditions and sexually transmitted infections. The Global Burden of Disease study also has been criticized for estimating mortality and disease burden for regions using incomplete and uncertain data. Including uncertain results, with uncertainty quantified to the extent possible, is preferable, however, to leaving blank cells in tables intended to provide policy makers with an overall assessment of burden of disease. No estimate is generally interpreted as no problem. Greater investment in getting the descriptive epidemiology of diseases and injuries correct in poor countries will do vastly more to reduce uncertainty in disease burden assessments than a philosophical debate about the appropriateness of social value

Transdermal Pharmacology of Small Molecule Cyclic C5a Antagonists

Overproduction or underregulation of the proinflammatory complement component C5a has been implicated in numerous immune and inflammatory conditions. Therefore, targeting the C5a receptor (C5aR) has become an innovative strategy for antiinflammatory drug development. The novel cyclic peptide C5aR antagonist, AcF-[OP(D-Cha)WR] (PMX53), attenuates injury in numerous animal models of inflammation following intravenous, subcutaneous, intraperitoneal, and oral administration. In the present study the transdermal pharmacology of PMX53 and three analogs designed with increased lipophilicity, hydrocinnamate-[OP(D-Cha)WCit] (PMX200), AcF-[OP(D-Cha)WCit] (PMX201) and hydrocinnamate-[OP(D-Cha)WR] (PMX205), have been examined in order to assess their transdermal permeability and inhibitory effect on C5a-mediated lipopolysaccharide (LPS)-induced systemic responses. In the rat, PMX53, PMX201, and PMX205, were bioavailable following topical dermal administration (10 mg/50 cm(2) site/rat). All analogs functionally antagonized neutropenia and hypotension induced by systemic challenge with LPS (I mg/kg i.v.). Interestingly, PMX200 attenuated LPS-induced neutropenia more effectively than other analogs, despite undetectable (< 5 ng/ml) circulating levels following topical administration. In conclusion, we have demonstrated that cyclic peptide C5aR antagonists can penetrate transdermally sufficiently to have systemic effects. However, increasing lipophilicity in these compounds did not result in increased blood levels. Nonetheless, topical application of C5aR antagonists produced circulating levels of the drugs that antagonized the LPS-induced systemic responses of neutropenia and hypotension. This suggests that these small-molecule C5aR antagonists may be developed for topical administration for the treatment of local and systemic inflammatory conditions in the human and veterinary pharmaceutical markets.

Chemokines in human periodontal disease tissues

An immunoperoxidase technique was used to examine IP-10 (interferon-gamma inducible protein 10), RANTES (regulated on activation normal T cell expressed and secreted), MCP-1 (monocyte chemoattractant protein-1), and MIP-1alpha (macrophage inflammatory protein-1alpha) in gingival biopsies from 21 healthy/gingivitis and 26 periodontitis subjects. The samples were placed into 3 groups according to the size of infiltrate. MIP-1alpha+ cells were more abundant than the other chemokines with few MCP-1+ cells. The mean percent MIP-1alpha+ cells was higher than the percent MCP-1+ cells (P = 0.02) in group 2 (intermediate size infiltrates) lesions from periodontitis subjects, other differences not being significant due to the large variations between tissue samples. Analysis of positive cells in relation to CD4/CD8 ratios showed that with an increased proportion of CD8+ cells, the mean percent MIP-1alpha+ cells was significantly higher in comparison with the mean percent RANTES+ and MCP-1+ cells (P < 0.015). Endothelial cells were MCP-1+ although positive capillaries were found on the periphery of infiltrates only. Keratinocyte expression of chemokines was weak and while the numbers of healthy/gingivitis and periodontitis tissue sections positive for IP-10, RANTES and MCP-1 reduced with increasing inflammation, those positive for MIP-1alpha remained constant for all groups. In conclusion, fewer leucocytes expressed MCP-1 in gingival tissue sections, however, the percent MIP-1alpha+ cells was increased particularly in tissues with increased proportions of CD8 cells and B cells with increasing inflammation and also in tissues with higher numbers of macrophages with little inflammation. Further studies are required to determine the significance of MIP-1alpha in periodontal disease.