A 2D numerical model for simulating the physics of fault systems

Simulations provide a powerful means to help gain the understanding of crustal fault system physics required to progress towards the goal of earthquake forecasting. Cellular Automata are efficient enough to probe system dynamics but their simplifications render interpretations questionable. In contrast, sophisticated elasto-dynamic models yield more convincing results but are too computationally demanding to explore phase space. To help bridge this gap, we develop a simple 2D elastodynamic model of parallel fault systems. The model is discretised onto a triangular lattice and faults are specified as split nodes along horizontal rows in the lattice. A simple numerical approach is presented for calculating the forces at medium and split nodes such that general nonlinear frictional constitutive relations can be modeled along faults. Single and multi-fault simulation examples are presented using a nonlinear frictional relation that is slip and slip-rate dependent in order to illustrate the model.

Screening for leprosy in immigrants: A decision analysis model

Almost all leprosy cases reported in industrialized countries occur amongst immigrants or refugees from developing countries where leprosy continues to be an important health issue. Screening for leprosy is an important question for governments in countries with immigration and refugee programmes. A decision analysis framework is used to evaluate leprosy screening. The analysis uses a set of criteria and parameters regarding leprosy screening, and available data to estimate the number of cases which would be detected by a leprosy screening programme of immigrants from countries with different leprosy prevalences, compared with a policy of waiting for immigrants who develop symptomatic clinical diseases to present for health care. In a cohort of 100,000 immigrants from high leprosy prevalence regions (3.6/10,000), screening would detect 32 of the 42 cases which would arise in the destination country over the 14 years after migration; from medium prevalence areas (0.7/10,000) 6.3 of the total 8.1 cases would be detected, and from low prevalence regions (0.2/10,600) 1.8 of 2.3 cases. Using Australian data, the migrant mix would produce 74 leprosy cases from 10 years intake; screening would detect 54, and 19 would be diagnosed subsequently after migration. Screening would only produce significant case-yield amongst immigrants from regions or social groups with high leprosy prevalence. Since the number of immigrants to Australia from countries of higher endemnicity is not large routine leprosy screening would have a small impact on case incidence.

A model of seller holdout

We model a buyer who wishes to combine objects owned by two separate sellers in order to realize higher value. Sellers are able to avoid entering into negotiations with the buyer, so that the order in which they negotiate is endogenous. Holdout occurs if at least one of the sellers is not present in the first round of negotiations. We demonstrate that complementarity of the buyer's technology is a necessary condition for equilibrium holdout. Moreover, a rise in complementarity leads to an increased likelihood of holdout, and an increased efficiency loss. Applications include patents, the land assembly problem, and mergers.

Equine laminitis: loss of hemidesmosomes in hoof secondary epidermal lamellae correlates to dose in an oligofructose induction model: an ultrastructural study

Reasons for performing study: Light microscopical studies show that the key lesion of laminitis is separation at the hoof lamellar dermal-epidermal interface. More precise knowledge of the damage occurring in the lamellar basement membrane zone may result if laminitis affected tissue is examined with the transmission electron microscope. This could lead to better understanding of the pathogenesis of lesions and the means of treatment or prevention. Objectives: To investigate the ultrastructure of acute laminitis as disease of greater severity is induced by increasing oligofructose (OF) dosage. Methods: Three pairs of normal horses, dosed with OF at 7.5, 10 and 12.5 g/kg bwt via nasogastric intubation, developed laminitis 48 h later. Following euthanasia, their forefeet were processed for transmission electron microscopy. Lamellar basal cell hemidesmosome (HD) numbers and the distance between the basal cell plasmalemma and the lamina densa of the basement membrane were estimated and compared to control tissue. Results: Increasing OF dosage caused greater HD loss and more severe laminitis. The characteristic separation of the basement membrane, cytoskeleton failure and rounded basal cell nuclei results from combined HD dysassembly and anchoring filament failure. Conclusions: Without properly assembled HDs, dysadhesion between the lamina densa of the basement membrane (BM) and epidermal basal cells occurs, emphasising the fundamental importance of HDs in maintaining attachment at the lamellar interface. Medical conditions that trigger lamellar matrix metalloproteinase (MMP) activation and/or compromise entry of glucose into lamellar basal cells appear to promote loss and failure of HDs and, therefore, laminitis development. Potential relevance: A correlation between lameness severity and escalating loss of lamellar HDs now exists. Therapy aimed at protecting the lamellar environment from haematogenous delivery of MMP activators or from glucose deprivation may control laminitis development.

A cyclic peptide, C5a receptor antagonist analogue confers increased potency in a model of inflammatory bowel disease in rats

No abstract