267 resultados para Risk matrix


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Objectives: We studied the association between cigarette smoking and ovarian cancer in a population-based case-control study. Methods: A total of 794 women with histologically confirmed epithelial ovarian cancer who were aged 18-79 years and resident in one of three Australian states were interviewed, together with 855 controls aged 18-79 years selected at random from the electoral roll from the same states. Information was obtained about cigarette smoking and other factors including age, parity, oral contraceptive use, and reproductive factors. We estimated the relative risk of ovarian cancer associated with cigarette smoking, accounting for histologic type, using multivariable logistic regression to adjust for confounding factors. Results: Women who had ever smoked cigarettes were more likely to develop ovarian cancer than women who had never smoked (adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 1.5; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.2-1.9). Risk was greater for ovarian cancers of borderline malignancy (OR = 2.4; 95% CI = 1.4-4.1) than for invasive tumors (OR = 1.7; 95% CI = 1.2-2.4) and the histologic subtype most strongly associated overall was the mucinous subtype among both current smokers (OR = 3.2; 95% CI = 1.8-5.7) and past smokers (OR = 2.3; 95% CI = 1.3-3.9). Conclusions: These data extend recent findings and suggest that cigarette smoking is a risk factor for ovarian cancer, especially mucinous and borderline mucinous types. From a public health viewpoint, this is one of the few reports of a potentially avoidable risk factor for ovarian cancer.

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The proposition that mucinous ovarian cancer has an etiology distinct from that of other histologic types has been evaluated using data from a population-based case-control study of epithelial ovarian cancer conducted in 1990-1993 among Australian women aged 18-79 years. The protective effects of parity and oral contraceptive use were greater in nonmucinous than in mucinous ovarian tumors. However, these differences appeared to be driven largely by the effect of ovulatory life, which was positively associated with nonmucinous tumors only. An association with family history of breast and/or ovarian cancer also appeared to be restricted to nonmucinous cancers. These results lend support to the hypothesis that mucinous and nonmucinous ovarian tumors develop via different causal mechanisms.

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Codes C-1,...,C-M of length it over F-q and an M x N matrix A over F-q define a matrix-product code C = [C-1 (...) C-M] (.) A consisting of all matrix products [c(1) (...) c(M)] (.) A. This generalizes the (u/u + v)-, (u + v + w/2u + v/u)-, (a + x/b + x/a + b + x)-, (u + v/u - v)- etc. constructions. We study matrix-product codes using Linear Algebra. This provides a basis for a unified analysis of /C/, d(C), the minimum Hamming distance of C, and C-perpendicular to. It also reveals an interesting connection with MDS codes. We determine /C/ when A is non-singular. To underbound d(C), we need A to be 'non-singular by columns (NSC)'. We investigate NSC matrices. We show that Generalized Reed-Muller codes are iterative NSC matrix-product codes, generalizing the construction of Reed-Muller codes, as are the ternary 'Main Sequence codes'. We obtain a simpler proof of the minimum Hamming distance of such families of codes. If A is square and NSC, C-perpendicular to can be described using C-1(perpendicular to),...,C-M(perpendicular to) and a transformation of A. This yields d(C-perpendicular to). Finally we show that an NSC matrix-product code is a generalized concatenated code.

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OBJECTIVES We developed a prognostic strategy for quantifying the long-term risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) events in survivors of acute coronary syndromes (ACS). BACKGROUND Strategies for quantifying long-term risk of CHD events have generally been confined to primary prevention settings. The Long-term Intervention with Pravastatin in Ischemic Disease (LIPID) study, which demonstrated that pravastatin reduces CHD events in ACS survivors with a broad range of cholesterol levels, enabled assessment of long-term prognosis in a secondary prevention setting. METHODS Based on outcomes in 8,557 patients in the LIPID study, a multivariate risk factor model was developed for prediction of CHD death or nonfatal myocardial infarction. Prognostic indexes were developed based on the model, and low-, medium-, high- and very high-risk groups were defined by categorizing the prognostic indexes. RESULTS In addition to pravastatin treatment, the independently significant risk factors included: total and high density lipoprotein cholesterol, age, gender, smoking status, qualifying ACS, prior coronary revascularization, diabetes mellitus, hypertension and prior stroke. Pravastatin reduced coronary event rates in each risk level, and the relative risk reduction did not vary significantly between risk levels. The predicted five-year coronary event rates ranged from 5% to 19% for those assigned pravastatin and from 6.4% to 23.6% fur those assigned placebo. CONCLUSIONS Long-term prognosis of ACS survivors varied substantially according to conventional risk factor profile. Pravastatin reduced coronary risk within all risk levels; however, absolute risk remained high in treated patients with unfavorable profiles. Our risk stratification strategy enables identification of ACS survivors who remain at very high risk despite statin therapy. CT Am Coil Cardiol 2001;38:56-63) (C) 2001 by the American College of Cardiology.

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This article discusses the design of a comprehensive evaluation of a community development programme for young people 'at-risk' of self-harming behaviour. It outlines considerations in the design of the evaluation and focuses on the complexities and difficulties associated with the evaluation of a community development programme. The challenge was to fulfil the needs of the funding body for a broad, outcome-focused evaluation while remaining close enough to the programme to accurately represent its activities and potential effects at a community level. Specifically, the strengths and limitations of a mixed-method evaluation plan are discussed with recommendations for future evaluation practice.

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Background Progress in identifying genetic factors protective against alcohol dependence (AlcD) requires a paradigm shift in psychiatric epidemiology. Aims To integrate analysis of research into the genetics of alcoholism. Method Data from prospective questionnaire and interview surveys of the Australian twin panel, and from a subsample who underwent alcohol challenge, were analysed. Results In men, effects of alcohol dehydrogenase ADH2*1/*2 genotype or high alcohol sensitivity (risk-decreasing), and of history of childhood conduct disorder, or having monozygotic co-twin or twin sister with AlcD (risk-increasing) were significant and comparable in magnitude. Religious affiliation (Anglican versus other) was associated with the ADH2 genotype, but did not explain the associations with AlcD symptoms. No protective effect of the ADH2*1/*2 genotype was observed in women. Conclusions The early onset and strong familial aggregation of AlcD, and opportunity for within-family tests of genetic association to avoid confounding effects, make epidemiological family studies of adolescents and young adults and their families a priority.

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Mutations in the exons of the cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitor gene CDKN2A are melanoma-predisposition alleles which have high penetrance, although they have low population frequencies. In contrast, variants of the melanocortin-1 receptor gene, MC1R, confer much lower melanoma risk but are common in European populations. Fifteen Australian CDKN2A mutation-carrying melanoma pedigrees were assessed for MC1R genotype, to test for possible modifier effects on melanoma risk. A CDKN2A mutation in the presence of a homozygous consensus MC1R genotype had a raw penetrance of 50%, with a mean age at onset of 58.1 years. When an MC1R variant allele was also present, the raw penetrance of the CDKN2A mutation increased to 84%, with a mean age at onset of 37.8 years (P=0.1). The presence of a CDKN2A mutation gave a hazard ratio of 13.35, and the hazard ratio of 3.72 for MC1R variant alleles was also significant. The impact of MC1R variants on risk of melanoma was mediated largely through the action of three common alleles, Arg151Cys, Arg160Trp, and Asp294His, that have previously been associated with red hair, fair skin, and skin sensitivity to ultraviolet light.

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1. Evidence from recent experimental and clinical studies suggests that excessive circulating levels of aldosterone can bring about adverse cardiovascular sequelae independent of the effects on blood pressure. Examples of these sequelae are the development of myocardial and vascular fibrosis in uninephrectomized, salt-loaded rats infused with mineralocorticoids and, in humans, an association of aldosterone with left ventricular hypertrophy, impaired diastolic and systolic function, salt and water retention causing aggravation of congestion in patients with established congestive cardiac failure (CCF), reduced vascular compliance and an increased risk of arrhythmias (resulting from intracardiac fibrosis, hypokalaemia, hypomagnesaemia, reduced baroreceptor sensitivity and potentiation of catecholamine effects). 2. These sequelae of aldosterone excess may contribute to the pathogenesis and worsen the prognosis of CCF and hypertension. 3. The heart and blood vessels may be capable of extra-adrenal aldosterone biosynthesis, raising the possibility that aldosterone may have paracrine or autocrine (and not just endocrine) effects on cardiovascular tissues. 4. The high prevalence of CCF, which is associated with secondary aldosteronism, and primary aldosteronism (PAL; recently recognized to be a much more common cause of hypertension than was previously thought) argue for an important role for aldosterone excess as a cause of cardiovascular injury. 5. The recognition of non-blood pressure-dependent adverse sequelae of aldosterone excess raises the question as to whether normotensive individuals with PAL, who have been detected as a result of genetic or biochemical screening among families with inherited forms of PAL, are at excess risk of cardiovascular events. 6. Provided that patients are carefully investigated in order to permit the appropriate selection of specific surgical (laparoscopic adrenalectomy for PAL that lateralizes on adrenal venous sampling) or medical (treatment with aldosterone antagonist medications) management and safety considerations for the use of aldosterone antagonists are kept in mind, the appreciation of a widening role for aldosterone in cardiovascular disease should provide a substantially better outlook for many patients with CCF and hypertension.

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Background: The significant association between alcohol dehydrogenase (ADH)-2 genotype and alcohol-dependence risk, demonstrated in both Asian and non-Asian populations, suggests a link between the metabolism of alcohol (ethanol) and individual differences in susceptibility to dependence. Methods: We tested this hypothesis by following up on subjects who took part in the Alcohol Challenge Twin Study conducted in 1979-1981 and comparing the blood and breath alcohol results in that study between subjects who subsequently did or did not meet diagnostic criteria for lifetime alcohol dependence in 1992-1993. Results: Subjects who met DSM-III-R criteria for lifetime alcohol dependence at follow-up had higher blood and breath alcohol values after alcohol challenge than never-dependent subjects. Multivariate analysis showed independent effects of susceptibility to alcohol dependence and smoking status on blood alcohol concentrations, whereas habitual alcohol intake at the time of the initial study had marginally significant effects. The risk of alcohol dependence was 2-fold higher in men and 3-fold higher in women with blood or breath alcohol concentrations in the highest quartile than in the lowest quartile. Conclusions: In view of this association and the known genetic influences on both alcohol pharmacokinetics and alcohol dependence, it is probable that part of the heritability of dependence is mediated by genes (other than the known ADH2 and ADH3 polymorphisms) affecting alcohol metabolism.