The Galilean turn in population ecology

The standard mathematical models in population ecology assume that a population's growth rate is a function of its environment. In this paper we investigate an alternative proposal according to which the rate of change of the growth rate is a function of the environment and of environmental change. We focus on the philosophical issues involved in such a fundamental shift in theoretical assumptions, as well as on the explanations the two theories offer for some of the key data such as cyclic populations. We also discuss the relationship between this move in population ecology and a similar move from first-order to second-order differential equations championed by Galileo and Newton in celestial mechanics.

Evidence for a QTL on chromosome 19 influencing LDL cholesterol levels in the general population

The genetic basis of cardiovascular disease (CVD) with its complex etiology is still largely elusive. Plasma levels of lipids and apolipoproteins are among the major quantitative risk factors for CVD and are well-established intermediate traits that may be more accessible to genetic dissection than clinical CVD end points. Chromosome 19 harbors multiple genes that have been suggested to play a role in lipid metabolism and previous studies indicated the presence of a quantitative trait locus (QTL) for cholesterol levels in genetic isolates. To establish the relevance of genetic variation at chromosome 19 for plasma levels of lipids and apolipoproteins in the general, out-bred Caucasian population, we performed a linkage study in four independent samples, including adolescent Dutch twins and adult Dutch, Swedish and Australian twins totaling 493 dizygotic twin pairs. The average spacing of short-tandem-repeat markers was 6 - 8 cM. In the three adult twin samples, we found consistent evidence for linkage of chromosome 19 with LDL cholesterol levels ( maximum LOD scores of 4.5, 1.7 and 2.1 in the Dutch, Swedish and Australian sample, respectively); no indication for linkage was observed in the adolescent Dutch twin sample. The QTL effects in the three adult samples were not significantly different and a simultaneous analysis of the samples increased the maximum LOD score to 5.7 at 60 cM pter. Bivariate analyses indicated that the putative LDL-C QTL also contributed to the variance in ApoB levels, consistent with the high genetic correlation between these phenotypes. Our study provides strong evidence for the presence of a QTL on chromosome 19 with a major effect on LDL-C plasma levels in outbred Caucasian populations.

Life transitions and changing physical activity patterns in young women

Background: Physical activity (PA) patterns are likely to change in young adulthood in line with changes in lifestyle that occur in the transition from adolescence to adulthood. The aim of this study was to ascertain whether key life events experienced by young women in their early twenties are associated with increasing levels of inactivity. Methods: This was a 4-year follow-up of 7281 participants (aged 18 to 23 years at baseline) in the Australian Longitudinal Study of Women's Health, with self-reported measures of PA, life events, body mass index (BMI), and sociodemographic variables. Results: The cross-sectional data indicated no change in PA between baseline (57% active) and follow-up (56% active). However, for almost 40% of the sample, PA category changed between baseline and follow-up, with approximately 20% of the women changing from being active to inactive, and another 20% changing from being inactive to active. After adjustment for age, other sociodemographic variables, BMI, and PA at baseline, women who reported getting married, having a first or subsequent child, or beginning paid work were more likely to be inactive at follow-up than those who did not report these events. Conclusions: The results suggest that life events such as getting married, having children, and starting work are associated with decreased levels of PA in young adult women. Strategies are needed to promote maintenance of activity at the time when most women experience these key life-stage transitions.

Sexual dysfunction in the Australian population

AIM: To describe the prevalence and forms of sexual dysfunction experienced by Australians, and compare these with people in the United States. METHODS: A cross sectional, telephone interview survey of a randomly selected sample of men (n = 876) and women (n = 908) aged between 18 and 59 years on the electoral roll in all states and territories of Australia (response rate = 61%) was conducted between November 1999 and April 2000. RESULTS: Large proportions of Australian men (55.0%) and women (60.5%) reported at least one sexual problem within the preceding year. More serious sexual dysfunction (> 3 symptoms) was observed in 13.2% of men and 19.7% of women. DISCUSSION: Australia and the USA are similar with regard to the high rate of symptoms of sexual dysfunction observed in the population. The low rate of treatment points to both patient and doctor reluctance to discuss sexual performance and practices.

Genetic and environmental risk factors and their interactions for Parkinson's disease in a Chinese population

The interaction between genetic and environmental factors for PD was examined in a Chinese population. It was found that although the intron 2 MAOB (GT)(n) repeat polymorphism was not associated with PID in the population, a relationship might have been masked by the protective effect of tea drinking. In individuals who did not drink tea (<1 cup/day), the possession of short length less than or equal to 178 bp (GT), alleles conferred a borderline significant increased risk for PD (adjusted OR = 1.47; C.l. = 1.03-2. 1). As the extent of tea consumption increased, the association between the less than or equal to178 bp allele and PD disappeared. This result suggests that the MAOB gene may be associated with PD in Chinese if the putative protective effect of tea drinking is taken into account. The significance of this finding is unclear as the study may be limited because of its marginal significance and limited numbers. However, it does demonstrate the importance of considering putative positive and negative environmental risk factors in any examination of genetic risk factors for PD. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Simulation supplements field studies to determine no-till dryland corn population recommendations for semiarid western Nebraska

In a 2-yr multiple-site field study conducted in western Nebraska during 1999 and 2000, optimum dryland corn (Zea mays L.) population varied from less than 1.7 to more than 5.6 plants m(-2), depending largely on available water resources. The objective of this study was to use a modeling approach to investigate corn population recommendations for a wide range of seasonal variation. A corn growth simulation model (APSIM-maize) was coupled to long-term sequences of historical climatic data from western Nebraska to provide probabilistic estimates of dryland yield for a range of corn populations. Simulated populations ranged from 2 to 5 plants m(-2). Simulations began with one of three levels of available soil water at planting, either 80, 160, or 240 mm in the surface 1.5 m of a loam soil. Gross margins were maximized at 3 plants m(-2) when starting available water was 160 or 240 mm, and the expected probability of a financial loss at this population was reduced from about 10% at 160 mm to 0% at 240 mm. When starting available water was 80 mm, average gross margins were less than $15 ha(-1), and risk of financial loss exceeded 40%. Median yields were greatest when starting available soil water was 240 mm. However, perhaps the greater benefit of additional soil water at planting was reduction in the risk of making a financial loss. Dryland corn growers in western Nebraska are advised to use a population of 3 plants m(-2) as a base recommendation.

SPAnDX: a process-based population dynamics model to explore management and climate change impacts on an invasive alien plant, Acacia nilotica

This paper describes a process-based metapopulation dynamics and phenology model of prickly acacia, Acacia nilotica, an invasive alien species in Australia. The model, SPAnDX, describes the interactions between riparian and upland sub-populations of A. nilotica within livestock paddocks, including the effects of extrinsic factors such as temperature, soil moisture availability and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide. The model includes the effects of management events such as changing the livestock species or stocking rate, applying fire, and herbicide application. The predicted population behaviour of A. nilotica was sensitive to climate. Using 35 years daily weather datasets for five representative sites spanning the range of conditions that A. nilotica is found in Australia, the model predicted biomass levels that closely accord with expected values at each site. SPAnDX can be used as a decision-support tool in integrated weed management, and to explore the sensitivity of cultural management practices to climate change throughout the range of A. nilotica. The cohort-based DYMEX modelling package used to build and run SPAnDX provided several advantages over more traditional population modelling approaches (e.g. an appropriate specific formalism (discrete time, cohort-based, process-oriented), user-friendly graphical environment, extensible library of reusable components, and useful and flexible input/output support framework). (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

Faeces as a source of DNA for molecular studies in a threatened population of great bustards

With recent advances in molecular biology, it is now possible to use the trace amounts of DNA in faeces to non-invasively sample endangered species for genetic studies. A highly vulnerable population of approximately 100 great bustards (Otis tarda) exists in Morocco necessitating the use of non-invasive protocols to study their genetic structure. Here we report a reliable silica-based method to extract DNA from great bustard faeces. We found that successful extraction and amplification correlated strongly with faeces freshness and composition. We could not extract amplifiable DNA from 30% of our samples as they were dry or contained insect material. However 100% of our fresh faecal samples containing no obvious insect material worked, allowing us to assess the levels of genetic variation among 25 individuals using a 542 bp control region sequence. We were able to extract DNA from four out of five other avian species, demonstrating that faeces represents a suitable source of DNA for population genetics studies in a broad range of species.

Physical activity and sedentary behavior: A population-based study of barriers, enjoyment, and preference

The associations of physical activity and sedentary behavior with barriers, enjoyment, and preferences were examined in a population-based mail survey of 1,332 adults. Respondents reporting high enjoyment and preference for physical activity were more likely to report high levels of activity. Those reporting cost, the weather, and personal barriers to physical activity were less likely to be physically active. Preference for sedentary behavior was associated with the decreased likelihood of being physically active, and the weather as a barrier to physical activity was associated with the increased likelihood of sedentary behavior. These constructs can be used to examine individual and environmental influences on physical activity and sedentary behavior in specific populations and could inform the development of targeted interventions.

A new wavelet-based adaptive method for solving population balance equations

A new wavelet-based adaptive framework for solving population balance equations (PBEs) is proposed in this work. The technique is general, powerful and efficient without the need for prior assumptions about the characteristics of the processes. Because there are steeply varying number densities across a size range, a new strategy is developed to select the optimal order of resolution and the collocation points based on an interpolating wavelet transform (IWT). The proposed technique has been tested for size-independent agglomeration, agglomeration with a linear summation kernel and agglomeration with a nonlinear kernel. In all cases, the predicted and analytical particle size distributions (PSDs) are in excellent agreement. Further work on the solution of the general population balance equations with nucleation, growth and agglomeration and the solution of steady-state population balance equations will be presented in this framework. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.