Prospective independent validation of APACHE III models in an Australian tertiary adult intensive care unit

Evaluation of the performance of the APACHE III (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation) ICU (intensive care unit) and hospital mortality models at the Princess Alexandra Hospital, Brisbane is reported. Prospective collection of demographic, diagnostic, physiological, laboratory, admission and discharge data of 5681 consecutive eligible admissions (1 January 1995 to 1 January 2000) was conducted at the Princess Alexandra Hospital, a metropolitan Australian tertiary referral medical/surgical adult ICU. ROC (receiver operating characteristic) curve areas for the APACHE III ICU mortality and hospital mortality models demonstrated excellent discrimination. Observed ICU mortality (9.1%) was significantly overestimated by the APACHE III model adjusted for hospital characteristics (10.1%), but did not significantly differ from the prediction of the generic APACHE III model (8.6%). In contrast, observed hospital mortality (14.8%) agreed well with the prediction of the APACHE III model adjusted for hospital characteristics (14.6%), but was significantly underestimated by the unadjusted APACHE III model (13.2%). Calibration curves and goodness-of-fit analysis using Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics, demonstrated that calibration was good with the unadjusted APACHE III ICU mortality model, and the APACHE III hospital mortality model adjusted for hospital characteristics. Post hoc analysis revealed a declining annual SMR (standardized mortality rate) during the study period. This trend was present in each of the non-surgical, emergency and elective surgical diagnostic groups, and the change was temporally related to increased specialist staffing levels. This study demonstrates that the APACHE III model performs well on independent assessment in an Australian hospital. Changes observed in annual SMR using such a validated model support an hypothesis of improved survival outcomes 1995-1999.

The morbidity of Guillain-Barré syndrome admitted to the intensive care unit

Patients with severe forms of Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) require intensive care. Specific treatment, catheterization, and devices may increase morbidity in the intensive care unit (ICU). To understand the spectrum of morbidity associated with ICU care, the authors studied 114 patients with GBS. Major morbidity occurred in 60% of patients. Complications were uncommon if ICU stay was less than 3 weeks. Respiratory complications such as pneumonia and tracheobronchitis occurred in half of the patients and were linked to mechanical ventilation. Systemic infection occurred in one-fifth of patients and was more frequent with increasing duration of ICU admission. Direct complications of treatment and invasive procedures occurred infrequently. Life-threatening complications such as gastrointestinal bleeding and pulmonary embolism were very uncommon. Pulmonary morbidity predominates in patients with severe GBS admitted to the ICU. Attention to management of mechanical ventilation and weaning is important to minimize this complication of GBS. Other causes of morbidity in a tertiary center ICU are uncommon.

Impact of bronchopulmonary dysplasia, brain injury, and severe retinopathy on the outcome of extremely low-birth-weight infants at 18 months

CONTEXT: Despite more than 2 decades of outcomes research after very preterm birth, clinicians remain uncertain about the extent to which neonatal morbidities predict poor long-term outcomes of extremely low-birth-weight (ELBW) infants. OBJECTIVE: To determine the individual and combined prognostic effects of bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD), ultrasonographic signs of brain injury, and severe retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) on 18-month outcomes of ELBW infants. DESIGN: Inception cohort assembled for the Trial of Indomethacin Prophylaxis in Preterms (TIPP). SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: A total of 910 infants with birth weights of 500 to 999 g who were admitted to 1 of 32 neonatal intensive care units in Canada, the United States, Australia, New Zealand, and Hong Kong between 1996 and 1998 and who survived to a postmenstrual age of 36 weeks. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Combined end point of death or survival to 18 months with 1 or more of cerebral palsy, cognitive delay, severe hearing loss, and bilateral blindness. RESULTS: Each of the neonatal morbidities was similarly and independently correlated with a poor 18-month outcome. Odds ratios were 2.4 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.8-3.2) for BPD, 3.7 (95% CI, 2.6-5.3) for brain injury, and 3.1 (95% CI, 1.9-5.0) for severe ROP. In children who were free of BPD, brain injury, and severe ROP the rate of poor long-term outcomes was 18% (95% CI, 14%-22%). Corresponding rates with any 1, any 2, and all 3 neonatal morbidities were 42% (95% CI, 37%-47%), 62% (95% CI, 53%-70%), and 88% (64%-99%), respectively. CONCLUSION: In ELBW infants who survive to a postmenstrual age of 36 weeks, a simple count of 3 common neonatal morbidities strongly predicts the risk of later death or neurosensory impairment.

Environmental conditions and variation in levels of sun exposure among children in child care

Sun exposure in childhood is I of the risk factors for developing skin cancer, yet little is known about levels of exposure at this age. This is particularly important in countries with high levels of ultraviolet radiation. (UVR) such as Australia. Among 49 children 3 to 5 years of age attending child care centers, UVR exposure was studied under 4 conditions in a repeated measures design; sunny days, cloudy days, teacher's instruction to stay in the shade, and a health professionals instruction to apply sunscreen. Three different data collection methods were employed: (a) completion of questionnaire or diary by parents and researcher, (b) polysulphone dosimeter readings, and (c) observational audits (video recording). Results of this study indicated that more than half the children had been sunburnt (pink or red) and more than a third had experienced painful sunburn (sore or tender) in the last summer. Most wore short sleeve shirts, short skirts or shorts and cap, that do not provide optimal levels of skin protection. However, sunscreen was applied to all exposed parts before the children went out to the playground. Over the period of I hr (9-10 a.m.) the average amount of time children spent in full sun was 22 min. On sunny days there was more variation across children in the amount of sun exposure received. While the potential amount of UVR exposure for young children during the hour they were outside on a sunny day was 1.45 MED (Minimum Erythemal Dose), they received on average 0.35 MED, which is an insufficient amount to result in an erythemal response on fair skin even without the use of sunscreen.

Poor correlation of mid-femoral measurements by CT and hip measurements by DXA in the elderly

Background and aims: Hip fracture is a devastating event in terms of outcome in the elderly, and the best predictor of hip fracture risk is hip bone density, usually measured by dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA). However, bone density can also be ascertained from computerized tomography (CT) scans, and mid-thigh scans are frequently employed to assess the muscle and fat composition of the lower limb. Therefore, we examined if it was possible to predict hip bone density using mid-femoral bone density. Methods: Subjects were 803 ambulatory white and black women and men, aged 70-79 years, participating in the Health, Aging and Body Composition (Health ABC) Study. Bone mineral content (BMC, g) and volumetric bone mineral density (vBMD, mg/cm(3)) of the mid-femur were obtained by CT, whereas BMC and areal bone mineral density (aBMD, g/cm(2)) of the hip (femoral neck and trochanter) were derived from DXA. Results: In regression analyses stratified by race and sex, the coefficient of determination was low with mid-femoral BMC, explaining 6-27% of the variance in hip BMC, with a standard error of estimate (SEE) ranging from 16 to 22% of the mean. For mid-femur vBMD, the variance explained in hip aBMD was 2-17% with a SEE ranging from 15 to 18%. Adjusting aBMD to approximate volumetric density did not improve the relationships. In addition, the utility of fracture prediction was examined. Forty-eight subjects had one or more fractures (various sites) during a mean follow-up of 4.07 years. In logistic regression analysis, there was no association between mid-femoral vBMD and fracture (all fractures), whereas a 1 SD increase in hip BMD was associated with reduced odds for fracture of similar to60%. Conclusions: These results do not support the use of CT-derived mid-femoral vBMD or BMC to predict DXA-measured hip bone mineral status, irrespective of race or sex in older adults. Further, in contrast to femoral neck and trochanter BMD, mid-femur vBMD was not able to predict fracture (all fractures). (C) 2003, Editrice Kurtis.

Unraveling the barriers to reconceptualization of the problem in chronic pain: The actual and perceived ability of patients and health professionals to understand the neurophysiology

To identify why reconceptualization of the problem is difficult in chronic pain, this study aimed to evaluate whether (1) health professionals and patients can understand currently accurate information about the neurophysiology of pain and (2) health professionals accurately estimate the ability of patients to understand the neurophysiology of pain. Knowledge tests were completed by 276 patients with chronic pain and 288 professionals either before (untrained) or after (trained) education about the neurophysiology of pain. Professionals estimated typical patient performance on the test. Untrained participants performed poorly (mean +/- standard deviation, 55% +/- 19% and 29% +/- 12% for professionals and patients, respectively), compared to their trained counterparts (78% +/- 21% and 61% +/- 19%, respectively). The estimated patient score (46% +/- 18%) was less than the actual patient score (P < .005). The results suggest that professionals and patients can understand the neurophysiology of pain but professionals underestimate patients' ability to understand. The implications are that (1) a poor knowledge of currently accurate information about pain and (2) the underestimation of patients' ability to understand currently accurate information about pain represent barriers to reconceptualization of the problem in chronic pain within the clinical and lay arenas. (C) 2003 by the American Pain Society.