237 resultados para Performance prediction


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I examined age effects on reproduction in the Brown Thornbill Acanthiza pusilla in Canberra, Australia. I found that the reproductive performance of both males and females improved with age, although only age-related improvement in male performance had a significant effect on annual reproductive success. Reproductive success improved with male age as a result of improved performance during two stages of the breeding cycle: first-year males were less likely to fledge young than those aged two or more, while both first and second-year males were less successful at raising fledglings to independence than males of three or more. Male performance appears to improve over three years as they gain experience at provisioning nestlings and caring for fledglings without attracting predators, rather than as a direct result of improved foraging skills. In contrast, reproductive success only improved slightly with female age, although females of two or more years initiated their first clutch earlier in the season than one-year-old females, and tended to be mure likely to re-nest if a breeding attempt failed. The poor performance of young females appears unlikely to be related to their foraging ability but may be associated with costs imposed by dispersing to a breeding vacancy earlier in the year. Although the reproductive performance of Brown Thornbills improves considerably with age 1 found no evidence that performance improved as a result of repeated breeding attempts with the same partner.

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Carbon isotope composition (delta C-13), oxygen isotope composition (delta O-18), and nitrogen concentration (N-mass) of branchlet tissue at two canopy positions were assessed for glasshouse seedlings and 9-year-old hoop pine (Araucaria cunninghamii Ait. ex D. Don) trees from 22 open-pollinated families grown in 5 blocks of a progeny test at a water-limited and nitrogen-deficient site in southeastern Queensland, Australia. Significant variations in canopy delta C-13, delta O-18, and N-mass existed among the 9-year-old hoop pine families, with a heritability estimate of 0.72 for branchlet delta C-13 from the upper inner canopy position. There was significant variation in canopy delta C-13 of glasshouse seedlings between canopy positions and among the families, with a heritability estimate of 0.66. The canopy delta C-13 was positively related to canopy N-mass only for the upper outer crown in the field (R = 0.62, p < 0.001). Phenotypic correlations existed between tree height and canopy delta C-13 (R = 0.37-0.41, p < 0.001). Strong correlations were found between family canopy delta C-13 at this site and those at a wetter site and between field canopy delta C-13 and glasshouse seedling delta C-13. The mechanisms of the variation in canopy delta C-13 are discussed in relation to canopy photosynthetic capacity as reflected in the N-mass and stomatal conductance as indexed by canopy delta O-18.

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FILTER is an innovative, CSIRO developed system for treating effluent using high rate land application and subsequent effluent recapture via a closely spaced, subsurface drainage network. We report on the summer performance of a FILTER system established in a subtropical environment on a relatively impermeable swelling clay soil underlain by a deep regional water table. Using secondary treated sewage effluent, the FILTER system produced effluent of tertiary nutrient standards (less than or equal to5 mg/L TN; less than or equal to1 mg/L TP), with salinity levels suitable for subsequent irrigation reuse (EC less than or equal to2.5 dS/m). Removal of faecal coliforms was considerably less effective. The hydraulic loading rate achieved was about two and a half times larger than conventional irrigation demand, but this was associated with high deep percolation losses (e 3 mm/day). Comparisons are made with the original FILTER system developed and tested by Jayawardane et al. in temperate Australia. Suggestions are made for modifications to, and further testing of FILTER in a subtropical environment.

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Background: Supplementation with propionyl-L-carnitine (PLC) may be of use in improving the exercise capacity of people with peripheral arterial disease. Methods: After a 2-wk exercise familiarization phase, seven subjects displaying intermittent claudication were studied over a 12-wk period consisting of three 4-wk phases, baseline (B), supplementation (S), and placebo (P). PLC was supplemented at 2 g(.)d(-1), and subjects were blinded to the order of supplementation. Unilateral calf strength and endurance were assessed weekly. Walking performance was assessed at the end of each phase using an incremental protocol, during which respiratory gases were collected. Results: Although there was not a significant increase in maximal walking time (similar to 14%) in the whole group, walking time improved to a greater extent than the individual baseline coefficient of variation in four of the seven subjects. The changes in walking performance were correlated with changes in the respiratory exchange ratio both at steady state (r = 0.59) and maximal exercise (r = 0.79). Muscle strength increased significantly from 695 +/- 198 N to 812 +/- 249 N by the end of S. Changes in calf strength from B to S were modestly related to changes in walking performance (r = 0.56). No improvements in calf endurance were detected throughout the study. Conclusions: These preliminary data suggest that, in addition to walking performance, muscle strength can be increased in PAD patients after 4 wk of supplementation with propionyl-L-carnitine.

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Event-specific scales commonly have greater power than generalized scales in prediction of specific disorders and in testing mediator models for predicting such disorders. Therefore, in a preliminary study, a 6-item Alcohol Helplessness Scale was constructed and found to be reliable for a sample of 98 problem drinkers. Hierarchical multiple regression and its derivative path analysis were used to test whether helplessness and self-efficacy moderate or mediate the link between alcohol dependence and depression, A test of a moderation model was not supported, whereas a test of a mediation model was supported. Helplessness and self-efficacy both significantly and independently mediated between alcohol dependence and depression. Nevertheless, a significant direct effect of alcohol dependence on depression also remained, (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

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Agricultural ecosystems and their associated business and government systems are diverse and varied. They range from farms, to input supply businesses, to marketing and government policy systems, among others. These systems are dynamic and responsive to fluctuations in climate. Skill in climate prediction offers considerable opportunities to managers via its potential to realise system improvements (i.e. increased food production and profit and/or reduced risks). Realising these opportunities, however, is not straightforward as the forecasting skill is imperfect and approaches to applying the existing skill to management issues have not been developed and tested extensively. While there has been much written about impacts of climate variability, there has been relatively little done in relation to applying knowledge of climate predictions to modify actions ahead of likely impacts. However, a considerable body of effort in various parts of the world is now being focused on this issue of applying climate predictions to improve agricultural systems. In this paper, we outline the basis for climate prediction, with emphasis on the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon, and catalogue experiences at field, national and global scales in applying climate predictions to agriculture. These diverse experiences are synthesised to derive general lessons about approaches to applying climate prediction in agriculture. The case studies have been selected to represent a diversity of agricultural systems and scales of operation. They also represent the on-going activities of some of the key research and development groups in this field around the world. The case studies include applications at field/farm scale to dryland cropping systems in Australia, Zimbabwe, and Argentina. This spectrum covers resource-rich and resource-poor farming with motivations ranging from profit to food security. At national and global scale we consider possible applications of climate prediction in commodity forecasting (wheat in Australia) and examine implications on global wheat trade and price associated with global consequences of climate prediction. In cataloguing these experiences we note some general lessons. Foremost is the value of an interdisciplinary systems approach in connecting disciplinary Knowledge in a manner most suited to decision-makers. This approach often includes scenario analysis based oil simulation with credible models as a key aspect of the learning process. Interaction among researchers, analysts and decision-makers is vital in the development of effective applications all of the players learn. Issues associated with balance between information demand and supply as well as appreciation of awareness limitations of decision-makers, analysts, and scientists are highlighted. It is argued that understanding and communicating decision risks is one of the keys to successful applications of climate prediction. We consider that advances of the future will be made by better connecting agricultural scientists and practitioners with the science of climate prediction. Professions involved in decision making must take a proactive role in the development of climate forecasts if the design and use of climate predictions are to reach their full potential. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Penalizing line management for the occurrence of lost time injuries has in some cases had unintended negative consequences. These are discussed. An alternative system is suggested that penalizes line management for accidents where the combination of the probability of recurrence and the maximum reasonable consequences such a recurrence may have exceeds an agreed limit. A reward is given for prompt effective control of the risk to below the agreed risk limit. The reward is smaller than the penalty. High-risk accidents require independent investigation by a safety officer using analytical techniques. Two case examples are given to illustrate the system. Continuous safety improvement is driven by a planned reduction in the agreed risk limit over time and reward for proactive risk assessment and control.