Prospective independent validation of APACHE III models in an Australian tertiary adult intensive care unit

Evaluation of the performance of the APACHE III (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation) ICU (intensive care unit) and hospital mortality models at the Princess Alexandra Hospital, Brisbane is reported. Prospective collection of demographic, diagnostic, physiological, laboratory, admission and discharge data of 5681 consecutive eligible admissions (1 January 1995 to 1 January 2000) was conducted at the Princess Alexandra Hospital, a metropolitan Australian tertiary referral medical/surgical adult ICU. ROC (receiver operating characteristic) curve areas for the APACHE III ICU mortality and hospital mortality models demonstrated excellent discrimination. Observed ICU mortality (9.1%) was significantly overestimated by the APACHE III model adjusted for hospital characteristics (10.1%), but did not significantly differ from the prediction of the generic APACHE III model (8.6%). In contrast, observed hospital mortality (14.8%) agreed well with the prediction of the APACHE III model adjusted for hospital characteristics (14.6%), but was significantly underestimated by the unadjusted APACHE III model (13.2%). Calibration curves and goodness-of-fit analysis using Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics, demonstrated that calibration was good with the unadjusted APACHE III ICU mortality model, and the APACHE III hospital mortality model adjusted for hospital characteristics. Post hoc analysis revealed a declining annual SMR (standardized mortality rate) during the study period. This trend was present in each of the non-surgical, emergency and elective surgical diagnostic groups, and the change was temporally related to increased specialist staffing levels. This study demonstrates that the APACHE III model performs well on independent assessment in an Australian hospital. Changes observed in annual SMR using such a validated model support an hypothesis of improved survival outcomes 1995-1999.

Cost comparison of hospital- and home-based treatment models for acute chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

This trial compared the cost of an integrated home-based care model with traditional inpatient care for acute chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). 25 patients with acute COPD were randomised to either home or hospital management following request for hospital admission. The acute care at home group costs per separation ($745, CI95% $595-$895, n = 13) were significantly lower (p < 0.01) than the hospital group ($2543, CI95% $1766-$3321, n = 12). There was an improvement in lung function in the hospital-managed group at the Outpatient Department review, decreased anxiety in the Emergency Department in the home-managed group and equal patient satisfaction with care delivery. Acute care at home schemes can substitute for usual hospital care for some patients without adverse effects, and potentially release resources. A funding model that allows adequate resource delivery to the community will be needed if there is a move to devolve acute care to community providers.

Bridging the gap between different statistical approaches: An integrated framework for modelling

This paper proposes a template for modelling complex datasets that integrates traditional statistical modelling approaches with more recent advances in statistics and modelling through an exploratory framework. Our approach builds on the well-known and long standing traditional idea of 'good practice in statistics' by establishing a comprehensive framework for modelling that focuses on exploration, prediction, interpretation and reliability assessment, a relatively new idea that allows individual assessment of predictions. The integrated framework we present comprises two stages. The first involves the use of exploratory methods to help visually understand the data and identify a parsimonious set of explanatory variables. The second encompasses a two step modelling process, where the use of non-parametric methods such as decision trees and generalized additive models are promoted to identify important variables and their modelling relationship with the response before a final predictive model is considered. We focus on fitting the predictive model using parametric, non-parametric and Bayesian approaches. This paper is motivated by a medical problem where interest focuses on developing a risk stratification system for morbidity of 1,710 cardiac patients given a suite of demographic, clinical and preoperative variables. Although the methods we use are applied specifically to this case study, these methods can be applied across any field, irrespective of the type of response.

The morbidity of Guillain-Barré syndrome admitted to the intensive care unit

Patients with severe forms of Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) require intensive care. Specific treatment, catheterization, and devices may increase morbidity in the intensive care unit (ICU). To understand the spectrum of morbidity associated with ICU care, the authors studied 114 patients with GBS. Major morbidity occurred in 60% of patients. Complications were uncommon if ICU stay was less than 3 weeks. Respiratory complications such as pneumonia and tracheobronchitis occurred in half of the patients and were linked to mechanical ventilation. Systemic infection occurred in one-fifth of patients and was more frequent with increasing duration of ICU admission. Direct complications of treatment and invasive procedures occurred infrequently. Life-threatening complications such as gastrointestinal bleeding and pulmonary embolism were very uncommon. Pulmonary morbidity predominates in patients with severe GBS admitted to the ICU. Attention to management of mechanical ventilation and weaning is important to minimize this complication of GBS. Other causes of morbidity in a tertiary center ICU are uncommon.

Quality of care of patients hospitalized with congestive heart failure

Background: Congestive heart failure (CHF) is an increasingly prevalent poor-prognosis condition for which effective interventions are available. It is -therefore important to determine the extent to which patients with CHF receive appropriate care in Australian hospitals and identify ways for improving suboptimal care, if it exists. Aim: To evaluate the quality of in-hospital acute care of patients with CHF using explicit quality indicators based on published guidelines. Methods: A retrospective case note review was -performed, involving 216 patients admitted to three teaching hospitals in Brisbane, Queensland, Australia, between October 2000 and April 2001. Outcome measures were process-of-care quality -indicators calculated as proportions of all, or strongly -eligible (ideal), patients who received -specific interventions. Results: Assessment of underlying causes and acute precipitating factors was undertaken in 86% and 76% of patients, respectively, and objective evaluation of left ventricular function was performed in 62% of patients. Prophylaxis for deep venous thrombosis (DVT) was used in only 29% of ideal patients. Proportions of ideal patients receiving pharmacological treatments at discharge were: (i) angiotensin--converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEi) (82%), (ii) target doses of ACEi (61%), (iii) alternative vasodilators in patients ineligible for ACEi (20%), (iv) beta-blockers (40%) and (v) warfarin (46%). Conclusions: Opportunities exist for improving quality of in-hospital care of patients with CHF, -particularly for optimal prescribing of: (i) DVT prophylaxis, (ii) ACEi, (iii) second-line vasodilators, (iv) beta-blockers and (v) warfarin. More research is needed to identify methods for improving quality of in-hospital care.

Visual Biology of Hawaiian Coral Reef Fishes. III. Environmental Light and an Integrated Approach to the Ecology of Reef Fish Vision

In the previous two papers in this three-part series, we have examined visual pigments, ocular media transmission, and colors of the coral reef fish of Hawaii. This paper first details aspects of the light field and background colors at the microhabitat level on Hawaiian reefs and does so from the perspective and scale of fish living on the reef. Second, information from all three papers is combined in an attempt to examine trends in the visual ecology of reef inhabitants. Our goal is to begin to see fish the way they appear to other fish. Observations resulting from the combination of results in all three papers include the following. Yellow and blue colors on their own are strikingly well matched to backgrounds on the reef such as coral and bodies of horizontally viewed water. These colors, therefore, depending on context, may be important in camouflage as well as conspicuousness. The spectral characteristics of fish colors are correlated to the known spectral sensitivities in reef fish single cones and are tuned for maximum signal reliability when viewed against known backgrounds. The optimal positions of spectral sensitivity in a modeled dichromatic visual system are generally close to the sensitivities known for reef fish. Models also predict that both UV-sensitive and red-sensitive cone types are advantageous for a variety of tasks. UV-sensitive cones are known in some reef fish, red-sensitive cones have yet to be found. Labroid colors, which appear green or blue to us, may he matched to the far-red component of chlorophyll reflectance for camouflage. Red cave/hole dwelling reef fish are relatively poorly matched to the background they are often viewed against but this may be visually irrelevant. The model predicts that the task of distinguishing green algae from coral is optimized with a relatively long wavelength visual pigment pair. Herbivorous grazers whose visual pigments are known possess the longest sensitivities so far found. Labroid complex colors are highly contrasting complementary colors close up but combine, because of the spatial addition, which results from low visual resolution, at distance, to match background water colors remarkably well. Therefore, they are effective for simultaneous communication and camouflage.

Integrated control of nitrate recirculation and external carbon addition in a predenitrification system

The integrated control of nitrate recirculation and external carbon addition in a predenitrification biological wastewater treatment system is studied. The proposed control structure consists of four feedback control loops, which manipulate the nitrate recirculation and the carbon dosage flows in a highly coordinated manner such that the consumption of external carbon is minimised while the nitrate discharge limits (based on both grab and composite samples) are met. The control system requires the measurement of the nitrate concentrations at the end of both the anoxic and the aerobic zones. Distinct from ordinary control systems, which typically minimise the variation in the controlled variables, the proposed control system essentially maximises the diurnal variation of the effluent nitrate concentration and through this maximises the use of influent COD for denitrification, thus minimising the requirement for external carbon source. Simulation studies using a commonly accepted simulation benchmark show that the controlled system consistently achieves the designated effluent quality with minimum costs.

Environmental conditions and variation in levels of sun exposure among children in child care

Sun exposure in childhood is I of the risk factors for developing skin cancer, yet little is known about levels of exposure at this age. This is particularly important in countries with high levels of ultraviolet radiation. (UVR) such as Australia. Among 49 children 3 to 5 years of age attending child care centers, UVR exposure was studied under 4 conditions in a repeated measures design; sunny days, cloudy days, teacher's instruction to stay in the shade, and a health professionals instruction to apply sunscreen. Three different data collection methods were employed: (a) completion of questionnaire or diary by parents and researcher, (b) polysulphone dosimeter readings, and (c) observational audits (video recording). Results of this study indicated that more than half the children had been sunburnt (pink or red) and more than a third had experienced painful sunburn (sore or tender) in the last summer. Most wore short sleeve shirts, short skirts or shorts and cap, that do not provide optimal levels of skin protection. However, sunscreen was applied to all exposed parts before the children went out to the playground. Over the period of I hr (9-10 a.m.) the average amount of time children spent in full sun was 22 min. On sunny days there was more variation across children in the amount of sun exposure received. While the potential amount of UVR exposure for young children during the hour they were outside on a sunny day was 1.45 MED (Minimum Erythemal Dose), they received on average 0.35 MED, which is an insufficient amount to result in an erythemal response on fair skin even without the use of sunscreen.