Long-term survivor mixture model with random effects: application to a multi-centre clinical trial of carcinoma

A mixture model incorporating long-term survivors has been adopted in the field of biostatistics where some individuals may never experience the failure event under study. The surviving fractions may be considered as cured. In most applications, the survival times are assumed to be independent. However, when the survival data are obtained from a multi-centre clinical trial, it is conceived that the environ mental conditions and facilities shared within clinic affects the proportion cured as well as the failure risk for the uncured individuals. It necessitates a long-term survivor mixture model with random effects. In this paper, the long-term survivor mixture model is extended for the analysis of multivariate failure time data using the generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) approach. The proposed model is applied to analyse a numerical data set from a multi-centre clinical trial of carcinoma as an illustration. Some simulation experiments are performed to assess the applicability of the model based on the average biases of the estimates formed. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Proportionally balanced designs: Some further results and general constructions

Proportionally balanced designs were introduced by Gray and Matters in response to a need for the allocation of markers of the Queensland Core Skills Test to have a certain property. Put simply, markers were allocated to pairs of units in proportions that reflected the relative numbers of markers allocated in total to each unit. In this paper, the first author extends the theoretical results relating to such designs and provides further instances, and two general constructions, in the case that the design comprises blocks of precisely two sizes.

Marine macroalgal biodiversity hotspots: why is there high species richness and endemism in southern Australian marine benthic flora?

The southern Australian marine macroalgal flora has the highest levels of species richness and endemism of any regional macroalgal flora in the world. Analyses of species composition and distributions for the southern Australian flora have identified four different floristic elements, namely the southern Australian endemic element, the widely distributed temperate element, the tropical element and a cold water element. Within the southern Australian endemic element, four species distribution patterns are apparent, thought to largely result from the Jurassic to Oligocene fragmentation of East Gondwana, the subsequent migration of Tethyan ancestors from the west Australian coast and the later invasion of high latitude Pacific species. Climatic deterioration from the late Eocene to the present is thought responsible for the replacement of the previous tropical south coast flora by an endemic temperate flora which has subsequently diversified in response to fluctuating environmental conditions, abundant rocky substrata and substantial habitat heterogeneity. High levels of endemism are attributed to Australia's long isolation and maintained, as is the high species richness, by the lack of recent mass extinction events. The warm water Leeuwin Current has had profound influence in the region since the Eocene, flowing to disperse macroalgal species onto the south coast as well as ameliorating the local environment. It is now evident that the high species richness and endemism we now observe in the southern Australian marine macroalgal flora can be attributed to a complex interaction of biogeographical, ecological and phylogenetic processes over the last 160 million years.

HPP1: A transmembrane protein-encoding gene commonly methylated in colorectal polyps and cancers

Adenomas are the precursors of most colorectal cancers. Hyperplastic polyps have been linked to the subset of colorectal cancers showing DNA microsatellite instability, but little is known of their underlying genetic etiology. Using a strategy that isolates differentially methylated sequences from hyperplastic polyps and normal mucosa, we identified a 370-bp sequence containing the 5' untranslated region and the first exon of a gene that we have called HPP1. Rapid amplification of cDNA ends was used to isolate HPP1 from normal mucose. Using reverse transcription-PCR, HPP1 was expressed in 28 of 30 (93%) normal colonic samples but in only seven of 30 (23%) colorectal cancers (P < 0.001). The 5' region of HPP1 included a CpG island containing 49 CpG sites, of which 96% were found to be methylated by bisulfite sequencing of DNA from colonic tumor samples. By COBRA analysis, methylation was detected in six of nine (66%) adenomas, 17 of 27 (63%) hyperplastic polyps, and 46 of 55 (84%) colorectal cancers. There was an inverse relationship between methylation level and mRNA expression in cancers (r = -0.67; P < 0.001), and 5-aza-2-deoxycytidine treatment restored HPP1 expression in two colorectal cancer cell lines. In situ hybridization of HPP1 indicated that expression occurs in epithelial and stromal elements in normal mucosa but is silenced in both cell types in early colonic neoplasia. HPP1 is predicted to encode a transmembrane protein containing follistatin and epidermal growth factor-like domains. Silencing of HPP1 by methylation may increase the probability of neoplastic transformation.

On the decay rates of buffers in continuous flow lines

Consider a tandem system of machines separated by infinitely large buffers. The machines process a continuous flow of products, possibly at different speeds. The life and repair times of the machines are assumed to be exponential. We claim that the overflow probability of each buffer has an exponential decay, and provide an algorithm to determine the exact decay rates in terms of the speeds and the failure and repair rates of the machines. These decay rates provide useful qualitative insight into the behavior of the flow line. In the derivation of the algorithm we use the theory of Large Deviations.

Patch dynamics and metapopulation theory: the case of successional species

We present a mathematical framework that combines extinction-colonization dynamics with the dynamics of patch succession. We draw an analogy between the epidemiological categorization of individuals (infected, susceptible, latent and resistant) and the patch structure of a spatially heterogeneous landscape (occupied-suitable, empty-suitable, occupied-unsuitable and empty-unsuitable). This approach allows one to consider life-history attributes that influence persistence in patchy environments (e.g., longevity, colonization ability) in concert with extrinsic processes (e.g., disturbances, succession) that lead to spatial heterogeneity in patch suitability. It also allows the incorporation of seed banks and other dormant life forms, thus broadening patch occupancy dynamics to include sink habitats. We use the model to investigate how equilibrium patch occupancy is influenced by four critical parameters: colonization rate? extinction rate, disturbance frequency and the rate of habitat succession. This analysis leads to general predictions about how the temporal scaling of patch succession and extinction-colonization dynamics influences long-term persistence. We apply the model to herbaceous, early-successional species that inhabit open patches created by periodic disturbances. We predict the minimum disturbance frequency required far viable management of such species in the Florida scrub ecosystem. (C) 2001 Academic Press.

Similar Markov chains

enin et al. (2000) recently introduced the idea of similarity in the context of birth-death processes. This paper examines the extent to which their results can be extended to arbitrary Markov chains. It is proved that, under a variety of conditions, similar chains are strongly similar in a sense which is described, and it is shown that minimal chains are strongly similar if and only if the corresponding transition-rate matrices are strongly similar. A general framework is given for constructing families of strongly similar chains; it permits the construction of all such chains in the irreducible case.

On the direct product of two weak uniquely completable partial latin squares

In this note we show by counter-example that the direct product of two weak uniquely completable partial latin squares is not necessarily a uniquely completable partial latin square. This counter-example rejects a conjecture by Gower (see [3]) on the direct product of two uniquely completable partial latin squares.

On the intersection problem for 1-factorizations and near 1-factorizations of K-v

The number of 1-factors (near 1-factors) that mu 1-factorizations (near 1-factorizations) of the complete graph K-v, v even (v odd), can have in common, is studied. The problem is completely settled for mu = 2 and mu = 3.

A framework for valuing derivative securities

This paper develops a general framework for valuing a wide range of derivative securities. Rather than focusing on the stochastic process of the underlying security and developing an instantaneously-riskless hedge portfolio, we focus on the terminal distribution of the underlying security. This enables the derivative security to be valued as the weighted sum of a number of component pieces. The component pieces are simply the different payoffs that the security generates in different states of the world, and they are weighted by the probability of the particular state of the world occurring. A full set of derivations is provided. To illustrate its use, the valuation framework is applied to plain-vanilla call and put options, as well as a range of derivatives including caps, floors, collars, supershares, and digital options.

International market selection: Developing a model from Australian case studies

This paper develops a theory that firms seek out new country markets on the basis of expected commercial returns. These expectations depend on judgements about the attractiveness of the market and the firm's competitive position in it, which in turn are influenced by informants. It is the number and strengths of these informants that will underlie the probability of a country being identified and assessed as a new market by any firm.

Predictors of non-response to a questionnaire survey of a volunteer twin panel: Findings from the Australian 1989 twin cohort

Questionnaire surveys, while more economical, typically achieve poorer response rates than interview surveys. We used data from a national volunteer cohort of young adult twins, who were scheduled for assessment by questionnaire in 1989 and by interview in 1996-2000, to identify predictors of questionnaire non-response. Out of a total of 8536 twins, 5058 completed the questionnaire survey (59% response rate), and 6255 completed a telephone interview survey conducted a decade later (73% response rate). Multinomial logit models were fitted to the interview data to identify socioeconomic, psychiatric and health behavior correlates of non-response in the earlier questionnaire survey. Male gender, education below University level, and being a dizygotic rather than monozygotic twin, all predicted reduced likelihood of participating in the questionnaire survey. Associations between questionnaire response status and psychiatric history and health behavior variables were modest, with history of alcohol dependence and childhood conduct disorder predicting decreased probability of returning a questionnaire, and history of smoking and heavy drinking more weakly associated with non-response. Body-mass index showed no association with questionnaire non-response. Despite a poor response rate to the self-report questionnaire survey, we found only limited sampling biases for most variables. While not appropriate for studies where socioeconomic variables are critical, it appears that survey by questionnaire, with questionnaire administration by telephone to non-responders, will represent a viable strategy for gene-mapping studies requiring that large numbers of relatives be screened.

Stimulus competition in affective and relational learning

Evaluative learning theory states that affective learning, the acquisition of likes and dislikes, is qualitatively different from relational learning, the learning of predictive relationships among stimuli. Three experiments tested the prediction derived from evaluative learning theory that relational learning, but not affective learning, is affected by stimulus competition by comparing performance during two conditional stimuli, one trained in a superconditioning procedure and the other in a blocking procedure. Ratings of unconditional stimulus expectancy and electrodermal responses indicated stimulus competition in relational learning. Evidence for stimulus competition in affective learning was provided by verbal ratings of conditional stimulus pleasantness and by measures of blink startle modulation. Taken together, the present experiments demonstrate stimulus competition in relational and affective learning, a result inconsistent with evaluative learning theory. (C) 2001 Academic Press.

Does affective learning exist in the absence of contingency awareness?

The proposal that affective learning, the learning of likes and dislikes, can exist in the absence of contingency awareness, whereas signal learning, the learning of stimulus relationships, cannot, was investigated in a differential conditioning paradigm that was embedded in a visual masking task. Startle magnitude modulation and changes in verbal ratings served as measures of affective learning, whereas skin conductance was taken to reflect signal learning. Awareness was assessed online with an expectancy dial and in a postexperimental questionnaire. Both between-subject comparisons of verbalizers and nonverbalizers and within-subject comparisons of verbalizers before and after verbalization failed to reveal any evidence for learning, whether affective or otherwise, in the absence of knowledge of the stimulus contingencies. (C) 2001 Academic Press.