A Comparison of Bayesian and Sampling Theory Inferences in a Probit Model

HE PROBIT MODEL IS A POPULAR DEVICE for explaining binary choice decisions in econometrics. It has been used to describe choices such as labor force participation, travel mode, home ownership, and type of education. These and many more examples can be found in papers by Amemiya (1981) and Maddala (1983). Given the contribution of economics towards explaining such choices, and given the nature of data that are collected, prior information on the relationship between a choice probability and several explanatory variables frequently exists. Bayesian inference is a convenient vehicle for including such prior information. Given the increasing popularity of Bayesian inference it is useful to ask whether inferences from a probit model are sensitive to a choice between Bayesian and sampling theory techniques. Of interest is the sensitivity of inference on coefficients, probabilities, and elasticities. We consider these issues in a model designed to explain choice between fixed and variable interest rate mortgages. Two Bayesian priors are employed: a uniform prior on the coefficients, designed to be noninformative for the coefficients, and an inequality restricted prior on the signs of the coefficients. We often know, a priori, whether increasing the value of a particular explanatory variable will have a positive or negative effect on a choice probability. This knowledge can be captured by using a prior probability density function (pdf) that is truncated to be positive or negative. Thus, three sets of results are compared:those from maximum likelihood (ML) estimation, those from Bayesian estimation with an unrestricted uniform prior on the coefficients, and those from Bayesian estimation with a uniform prior truncated to accommodate inequality restrictions on the coefficients.

Bioeconomic analysis of aquaculture's impact on wild stocks and biodiversity

Anderson theorizes that development of the aquaculture of a species of fish (also captured in an open-access fishery) favours the conservation of its wild stocks, if competitive market conditions prevail. However, this theory is shown to be subject to significant limitations. While this is less so within his model, it is particularly so in an extended one outlined here. The extended model allows for the possibility that aquaculture development can impact negatively on wild stocks thereby shifting the supply curve of the capture fishery, or raise the demand for the fish species subject both to aquaculture and capture. Such development can threaten wild stocks and their biodiversity. While aquaculture development could in principle have no impact on the biodiversity of wild stocks or even raise aquatic biodiversity overall, its impact in the long-term probably will be one of reducing aquatic diversity both in the wild and overall.

Will Bangladesh's economic growth solve its environmental problems?

Bangladesh has experienced rising GDP and rising per capita incomes now for at least three decades. This article considers whether its continuing economic growth is likely to solve its environmental problems. In doing so, it critically considers the application to Bangladesh of Environmental Kuznets Curve relationships and applies other macro-methods of assessing the relationship between economic growth and the environment to Bangladesh’s situation. The consequences of Bangladesh's economic reforms for the economic welfare of Bangladeshis and the state of Bangladesh's environment are also examined. Particular attention is given to environmental change in agriculture in the light of Bangladesh economic growth, reforms and proposed growth strategy. Doubts are expressed about the environmental benefits claimed by the Bangladeshi Government for its agricultural development strategy. Indeed, it may exacerbate many existing environmental problems, such as depletion of soil fertility and water supplies, already present.

Visitor profiles and environmental attributes, especially of birds, attracting visitors to Lamington National Park: Tourist attitudes and economic issues

Uses a sample of 622 day and overnight visitors to the O’ Reilly’s/Green Mountains site of Lamington National Park, Queensland, Australia, to identify their socio-economic and other pertinent characteristics and the main reasons and attributes that attract them to the site. Particular attention is given to birds and their attributes as attractions. The primary economic injection accruing locally as a result of visits is examined and the difference that the presence of birds makes to local expenditure by visitors is explored. The extent of support for and objection to the introduction of a fee for entering Lamington National Park is estimated. The many suggestions received from visitors for environmental improvements at this site are discussed. It is suggested that unless a way can be found to regulate the number of visitors to this site and obtain extra funds to finance improvements at this site, the magnitude of many of these problems will grow. This will necessitate a fresh look at the desirability or otherwise for charging entry fees to Lamington National Park.

Valuation of tourism's natural resources

Discusses the implications of the economic valuation of natural resources used for tourism and relates this valuation to the concept of total economic valuation. It demonstrates how applications of the concept of total economic valuation can be supportive of the conservation of natural resources used for tourism. Techniques for valuing tourism’s natural resources are then outlined and critically evaluated. Consideration is given to travel cost methods, contingent valuation methods, and hedonic pricing approaches before concentrating on current developments of valuation techniques, such as choice modelling. The general limitations of existing methods are considered and it is argued that more attention should be given to developing guidelines that will identify ‘optimally imperfect methods’. An overall assessment concludes this article.

The history and value of the elephant in Sri Lankan society

Reviews the literature to provide an overview of the historical significance of the elephant in Sri Lankan society, an association which dates back more than 4,000 years. The present status of this relationship assessed on the basis of the findings of a recent study undertaken on the total economic value of elephants in Sri Lanka. This paper, first briefly outlines the history, evolution, nature and their distribution of the Asian elephant while providing some insights on the status of the elephant (Elephas maxima maxima) in Sri Lanka. Next, it reviews the literature in order to assess the historical affiliation that the elephant has maintained with the Sri Lankan society, its culture, history, mythology and religion. The empirical evidence on the economic value of conservation of the remaining elephant population in Sri Lanka is reviewed and the Sri Lankan people’s attitudes towards conserving this species of wildlife. Literature reviewed and analysis undertaken indicates that the elephant in Sri Lanka, still, as in the past has a special place in Sri Lankan society, particularly, in its culture, religion and value system. Thus, there is a strong case for ensuring the survival of wild elephant population in Sri Lanka. Furthermore, it also suggests that the community as a whole will experience a net benefit from ensuring the survival of wild elephants in Sri Lanka.

Public valuation of and attitudes towards the conservation and use of the Hawksbill turtle: An Australian case study

Managing hawksbill turtle populations for use and conservation requires (i) adequate scientific understanding of their population status and dynamics and (ii) consideration of the public’s attitudes to this species. This study employs experimental surveys to assess the Australian public’s attitudes towards the hawksbill turtle, their knowledge of it, their views about its sustainable commercial harvesting, and their support and financial contribution for the species’ conservation. Contingent valuation reveals that the Australian public’s willingness to contribute to the conservation of the hawksbill turtle is high even in comparison to threatened Australian bird and mammal fauna. Most of this stated contribution is based on the intrinsic (non-use) value associated with the hawksbill turtle. It seems that the Australian public will only accept its harvesting if the sustainability of this is assured and its population is more secure. The CITES categorisation of the hawksbill as an Appendix I species hampers the development of techniques for its sustainable use.

Inferring migration flows from the migration propensities of infants: Mexico and Indonesia

The need for methods of indirectly estimating migration flows is particularly important in developing countries, where migration data are often incomplete and inaccurate. This paper focuses on the use of an indirect internal migration estimation method applied to Mexican and Indonesian census data. It shows that the mobility propensities of infants can be used to infer the corresponding propensities of all other age groups. However, the promise of this method is reduced in instances of inadequate data, and great care must be taken to identify outlying values in the data and to correct obviously erroneous patterns. Future work increasingly will be directed to this issue.

An analysis of accommodation needs of adults with an intellectual disability in Toowoomba and surrounding areas

Introduction The objective of this study was to analyse the accommodation needs of people with intellectual disability over the age of 18 years in Toowoomba and contiguous shires. In 2004, a group of carers established Toowoomba Intellectual Disability Support Association (TIDSA) to address the issue of the lack of supported accommodation for people with intellectual disability over the age of 18 and the concerns of ageing carers. The Centre for Rural and Remote Area Health (CRRAH) was engaged by TIDSA to ascertain this need and undertook a research project funded by the Queensland Gambling Community Benefit Fund. While data specifically relating to people with intellectual disability and their carers are difficult to obtain, the Australian Bureau of Statistics report that carers of people with a disability are more likely to be female and at least 65 years of age. Projections by the National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling (NATSEM) show that disability rates are increasing and carer rates are decreasing. Thus the problem of appropriate support to the increasing number of ageing carers and those who they care for will be a major challenge to policy makers and is an issue of immediate concern. In general, what was once the norm of accommodating people with intellectual disability in large institutions is now changing to accommodating into community-based residences (Annison, 2000; Young, Ashman, Sigafoos, & Grevell, 2001). However, in Toowoomba and contiguous shires, TIDSA have noted that the availability of suitable accommodation for people with intellectual disability over the age of 18 years is declining with no new options available in an environment of increasing demand. Most effort seemed to be directed towards crisis provision. Method This study employed two phases of data gathering, the first being the distribution of a questionnaire through local service providers and upon individual request to the carers of people with intellectual disability over the age of 18. The questionnaire comprised of Likert-type items intended to measure various aspects of current and future accommodation issues. Most questions were followed with space for free-response comments to provide the opportunity for carers to further clarify and expand on their responses. The second phase comprised semi-structured interviews conducted with ten carers and ten people with intellectual disability who had participated in the Phase One questionnaire. Interviews were transcribed verbatim and subjected to content analysis where major themes were explored. Results Age and gender Carer participants in this study totalled 150. The mean age of these carers was 61.5 years and ranged from 40 – 91 years. Females comprised 78% of the sample (mean age = 61.49; range from 40-91) and 22% were male (mean age = 61.7 range from 43-81). The mean age of people with intellectual disability in our study was 37.2 years ranging from 18 – 79 years with 40% female (mean age = 39.5; range from 19-79) and 60% male (mean age = 35.6; range from 18-59). The average age of carers caring for a person over the age of 18 who is living at home is 61 years. The average age of the carer who cares for a person who is living away from home is 62 years. The overall age range of both these groups of carers is between 40 and 81 years. The oldest group of carers (mean age = 70 years) were those where the person with intellectual disability lives away from home in a large residential facility. Almost one quarter of people with an intellectual disability who currently live at home is cared for by one primary carer and this is almost exclusively a parent.

Molecular and cellular biology of pre-malignancy in the gastrointestinal tract

Important pathogenic alterations within established cancers are acquired during the premalignant stage. These genetic alterations can be grouped into specific neoplastic pathways that differ within and between anatomical sites. By understanding the mechanisms that determine the initiation and progression of each pathway, it will be possible to develop novel approaches to the diagnosis, prevention and treatment of cancer. This chapter outlines the principles underlying the molecular characterization of pre-malignant lesions, taking colorectal neoplasia as the main model.

The effects of normalisation on the ability of business end-users to detect data anomalies: An experimental evaluation

With the proliferation of relational database programs for PC's and other platforms, many business end-users are creating, maintaining, and querying their own databases. More importantly, business end-users use the output of these queries as the basis for operational, tactical, and strategic decisions. Inaccurate data reduce the expected quality of these decisions. Implementing various input validation controls, including higher levels of normalisation, can reduce the number of data anomalies entering the databases. Even in well-maintained databases, however, data anomalies will still accumulate. To improve the quality of data, databases can be queried periodically to locate and correct anomalies. This paper reports the results of two experiments that investigated the effects of different data structures on business end-users' abilities to detect data anomalies in a relational database. The results demonstrate that both unnormalised and higher levels of normalisation lower the effectiveness and efficiency of queries relative to the first normal form. First normal form databases appear to provide the most effective and efficient data structure for business end-users formulating queries to detect data anomalies.

Natural selection and quantitative genetics of life-history traits in Western women: A twin study

Whether contemporary human populations are still evolving as a result of natural selection has been hotly debated. For natural selection to cause evolutionary change in a trait, variation in the trait must be correlated with fitness and be genetically heritable and there must be no genetic constraints to evolution. These conditions have rarely been tested in human populations. In this study, data from a large twin cohort were used to assess whether selection Will cause a change among women in contemporary Western population for three life-history traits: age at menarche, age at first reproduction, and age at menopause. We control for temporal variation in fecundity (the baby boom phenomenon) and differences between women in educational background and religious affiliation. University-educated women have 35% lower fitness than those with less than seven years education, and Roman Catholic women have about 20% higher fitness than those of other religions. Although these differences were significant, education and religion only accounted for 2% and 1% of variance in fitness, respectively. Using structural equation modeling, we reveal significant genetic influences for all three life-history traits, with heritability estimates of 0.50, 0.23, and 0.45, respectively. However, strong genetic covariation with reproductive fitness could only be demonstrated for age at first reproduction, with much weaker covariation for age at menopause and no significant covariation for age at menarche. Selection may, therefore, lead to the evolution of earlier age at first reproduction in this population. We also estimate substantial heritable variation in fitness itself, with approximately 39% of the variance attributable to additive genetic effects, the remainder consisting of unique environmental effects and small effects from education and religion. We discuss mechanisms that could be maintaining such a high heritability for fitness. Most likely is that selection is now acting on different traits from which it did in pre-industrial human populations.

An integrative approach for studying the etiology of alcoholism and other addictions

Studies of alcoholism etiology often focus on genetic or psy-chosocial approaches, but not both. Greater understanding of the etiology of alcohol, tobacco and other addictions will come from integration of these research traditions. A research approach is outlined to test three models for the etiology of addictions — behavioral undercontrol, pharmacologic vulnerability, negative affect regulation — addressing key questions including (i) mediators of genetic effects, (ii) genotype-environment correlation effects, (iii) genotype x environment interaction effects, (iv) the developmental unfolding of genetic and environmental effects, (v) subtyping including identification of distinct trajectories of substance involvement, (vi) identification of individual genes that contribute to risk, and (vii) the consequences of excessive use. By using coordinated research designs, including prospective assessment of adolescent twins and their siblings and parents; of adult substance dependent and control twins and their MZ and DZ cotwins, the spouses of these pairs, and their adolescent offspring; and of regular families; by selecting for gene-mapping approaches sibships screened for extreme concordance or discordance on quantitative indices of substance use; and by using experimental (drug challenge) as well as survey approaches, a number of key questions concerning addiction etiology can be addressed. We discuss complementary strengths and weaknesses of different sampling strategies, as well as methods to implement such an integrated approach illustrated for the study of alcoholism etiology. A coordinated program of twin and family studies will allow a comprehensive dissection of the interplay of genetic and environmental risk-factors in the etiology of alcoholism and other addictions.

The increasing problem of hepatitis C virus infection

The widespread incidence of hepatitis C (HCV) infection throughout the community is of concern. Although many of those infected will not suffer significantly from their infection, up to one-third will have liver disease, fatigue and oral health problems. General dental practitioners need to be aware of the precautions necessary in treating people with severe liver disease. This paper discusses the issues associated with treating patients who have HCV infection including the importance of preventive programs to reduce dental pathology and maximise oral health.

Energy expenditure during 2nd week of an ultra-endurance run around Australia

Purpose: For ultra-endurance athletes, whose energy expenditure is likely to be at the extremes of human tolerance for sustained periods of time, there is increased concern regarding meeting energy needs. Due to the lack of data outlining the energy requirements of such athletes, it is possible that those participating in ultra-endurance exercise are compromising performance, as well as health, as a result of inadequate nutrition and energy intake. To provide insight into this dilemma, we have presented a case study of a 37-yr-old ultra-marathon runner as he runs around the coast of Australia. Methods: Total energy expenditure was measured over a 2-wk period using the doubly labeled water technique. Results: The average total energy expenditure of the case subject was 6321 kcal.d(-1). Based on the expected accuracy and precision of the doubly labeled water technique the subject's total energy expenditure might range between 6095 and 6550 kcal.d(-1). The subject's average daily water turnover was 6.083 L over the 14-d period and might range between 5.9 L and 6.3 L.d(-1). Conclusions: This information will provide a guide to the energy requirements of ultra-endurance running and enable athletes, nutritionists, and coaches to optimize performance without compromising the health of the participant.