Prospective independent validation of APACHE III models in an Australian tertiary adult intensive care unit

Evaluation of the performance of the APACHE III (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation) ICU (intensive care unit) and hospital mortality models at the Princess Alexandra Hospital, Brisbane is reported. Prospective collection of demographic, diagnostic, physiological, laboratory, admission and discharge data of 5681 consecutive eligible admissions (1 January 1995 to 1 January 2000) was conducted at the Princess Alexandra Hospital, a metropolitan Australian tertiary referral medical/surgical adult ICU. ROC (receiver operating characteristic) curve areas for the APACHE III ICU mortality and hospital mortality models demonstrated excellent discrimination. Observed ICU mortality (9.1%) was significantly overestimated by the APACHE III model adjusted for hospital characteristics (10.1%), but did not significantly differ from the prediction of the generic APACHE III model (8.6%). In contrast, observed hospital mortality (14.8%) agreed well with the prediction of the APACHE III model adjusted for hospital characteristics (14.6%), but was significantly underestimated by the unadjusted APACHE III model (13.2%). Calibration curves and goodness-of-fit analysis using Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics, demonstrated that calibration was good with the unadjusted APACHE III ICU mortality model, and the APACHE III hospital mortality model adjusted for hospital characteristics. Post hoc analysis revealed a declining annual SMR (standardized mortality rate) during the study period. This trend was present in each of the non-surgical, emergency and elective surgical diagnostic groups, and the change was temporally related to increased specialist staffing levels. This study demonstrates that the APACHE III model performs well on independent assessment in an Australian hospital. Changes observed in annual SMR using such a validated model support an hypothesis of improved survival outcomes 1995-1999.

Simulation of the micro-physics of rocks using LSMearth

The particle-based Lattice Solid Model (LSM) was developed to provide a basis to study the physics of rocks and the nonlinear dynamics of earthquakes (MORA and PLACE, 1994; PLACE and MORA, 1999). A new modular and flexible LSM approach has been developed that allows different microphysics to be easily included in or removed from the model. The approach provides a virtual laboratory where numerical experiments can easily be set up and all measurable quantities visualised. The proposed approach provides a means to simulate complex phenomena such as fracturing or localisation processes, and enables the effect of different micro-physics on macroscopic behaviour to be studied. The initial 2-D model is extended to allow three-dimensional simulations to be performed and particles of different sizes to be specified. Numerical bi-axial compression experiments under different confining pressure are used to calibrate the model. By tuning the different microscopic parameters (such as coefficient of friction, microscopic strength and distribution of grain sizes), the macroscopic strength of the material and can be adjusted to be in agreement with laboratory experiments, and the orientation of fractures is consistent with the theoretical value predicted based on Mohr-Coulomb diagram. Simulations indicate that 3-D numerical models have different macroscopic properties than in 2-D and, hence, the model must be recalibrated for 3-D simulations. These numerical experiments illustrate that the new approach is capable of simulating typical rock fracture behaviour. The new model provides a basis to investigate nucleation, rupture and slip pulse propagation in complex fault zones without the previous model limitations of a regular low-level surface geometry and being restricted to two-dimensions.

Differences in benthic fauna and sediment among mangrove (Avicennia marina var. australasica) stands of different ages in New Zealand

Management of coastal environments requires understanding of ecological relationships among different habitats and their biotas. Changes in abundance and distribution of mangroves, like those of other coastal habitats, have generally been interpreted in terms of changes in biodiversity or fisheries resources within individual stands. In several parts of their range, anthropogenically increased inputs of sediment to estuaries have led to the spread of mangroves. There is, however, little information on the relative ecological properties, or conservational values, of stands of different ages. The faunal, floral and sedimentological properties of mangrove (Avicennia marina var. australasica) stands of two different ages in New Zealand has been compared. Older (>60 years) and younger (3-12 years) stands showed clear separation on the basis of environmental characteristics and benthic macrofauna. Numbers of faunal taxa were generally larger at younger sites, and numbers of individuals of several taxa were also larger at these sites. The total number of individuals was not different between the two age-classes, largely due to the presence of large numbers of the surface-living gastropod Potamopyrgus antipodarum at the older sites. It is hypothesized that as mangrove stands mature, the focus of faunal diversity may shift from the benthos to animals living on the mangrove plants themselves, such as insects and spiders, though these were not included in the present study. Differences in the faunas were coincident with differences in the nature of the sediment. Sediments in older stands were more compacted and contained more organic matter and leaf litter. Measurement of leaf chemistry suggested that mangrove plants in the younger stands were able to take up more N and P than those in the older stands. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

The embryonic development of the bodywall and nervous system of the cestode flatworm Hymenolepis diminuta

Cestodes (tapeworms) are a derived, parasitic clade of the phylum Platyhelminthes (flatworms). The cestode body wall represents an adaptation to its endoparasitic lifestyle. The epidermis forms a nonciliated syncytium, and both muscular and nervous system are reduced. Morphological differences between cestodes and free-living flatworms become apparent already during early embryogenesis. Cestodes have a complex life cycle that begins with an infectious larva, called the oncosphere. In regard to cell number, cestode oncospheres are among the simplest multicellular organisms, containing in the order of 50-100 cells. As part of our continuing effort to analyze embryonic development in flatworms, we describe here the staining pattern obtained with acTub in embryos and larvae of the cestode Hymenolepis diminuta and, briefly, the monogenean Neoheterocotyle rhinobatidis. In addition, we labeled the embryonic musculature of Hymenolepis with phalloidin. In Hymenolepis embryos, two different cell types that we interpret as neurons and epidermal gland cells express acTub. There exist only two neurons that develop close to the midline at the anterior pole of the embryo. The axons of these two neurons project posteriorly into the center of the oncosphere, where they innervate the complex of muscles that is attached to the booklets. In addition to neurons, acTub labels a small and invariant set of epidermal gland cells that develop at superficial positions, anteriorly adjacent to the neurons, in the dorsal midline, and around the posteriorly located hooklets. During late stages of embryogenesis they spread and form a complete covering of the embryo. We discuss these data in the broader context of platyhelminth embryology.

Short-term autocorrelation in Australian equities

This paper examines the statistical and economic significance of short-term autocorrelation in Australian equities. We document large negative first-order autocorrelation in individual stock returns. Preliminary results suggest this autocorrelation is economically significant, as two simple trading strategies based on the autocorrelation structure appear to yield large risk-adjusted returns. Further analysis, however, shows that these results are driven by the inclusion of small-capitalisation and low-priced stocks which are vulnerable to a number of market-microstructure-related problems. After revising the dataset to mitigate these problems, little evidence of economic significance remains.

Stock splits: Implications for investor trading costs

Stock splits are known to have a negative effect on market quality—while stock prices adjust consistently with the split's scale, the bid/ask spread and market depth do not. Two possible explanations for the relative increase in spread are that (i) splits cause an increase in market maker costs that are passed along to investors or (ii) splits provide a mechanism for market makers to increase excess profits. Using a robust econometric methodology, we find evidence of the latter, which raises questions about the motivation of the splitting practice. We also document that while NASDAQ spreads appear to adjust more fully than those of NYSE/AMEX stocks, NASDAQ spreads are higher in general.

A partial velocity approach to subcycling structural dynamics

Subcycling, or the use of different timesteps at different nodes, can be an effective way of improving the computational efficiency of explicit transient dynamic structural solutions. The method that has been most widely adopted uses a nodal partition. extending the central difference method, in which small timestep updates are performed interpolating on the displacement at neighbouring large timestep nodes. This approach leads to narrow bands of unstable timesteps or statistical stability. It also can be in error due to lack of momentum conservation on the timestep interface. The author has previously proposed energy conserving algorithms that avoid the first problem of statistical stability. However, these sacrifice accuracy to achieve stability. An approach to conserve momentum on an element interface by adding partial velocities is considered here. Applied to extend the central difference method. this approach is simple. and has accuracy advantages. The method can be programmed by summing impulses of internal forces, evaluated using local element timesteps, in order to predict a velocity change at a node. However, it is still only statistically stable, so an adaptive timestep size is needed to monitor accuracy and to be adjusted if necessary. By replacing the central difference method with the explicit generalized alpha method. it is possible to gain stability by dissipating the high frequency response that leads to stability problems. However. coding the algorithm is less elegant, as the response depends on previous partial accelerations. Extension to implicit integration, is shown to be impractical due to the neglect of remote effects of internal forces acting across a timestep interface. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Mosquito host-feeding patterns and implications for Japanese encephalitis virus transmission in northern Australia and Papua New Guinea

Japanese encephalitis (JE) virus spread to northern Australia during the 1990s, transmitted by Culex annulirostris Skuse and other mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae). To determine the relative importance of various hosts for potential vectors of JE virus, we investigated the host-feeding patterns of mosquitoes in northern Australia and Western Province of Papua New Guinea, with particular attention to pigs, Sus scrofa L. - the main amplifying host of JE virus in South-east Asia. Mosquitoes were collected by CDC light traps baited with dry ice and 1-octen-3-ol, run 16.00-08.00 hours, mostly set away from human habitations, if possible in places frequented by feral pigs. Bloodmeals of 2569 mosquitoes, representing 15 species, were identified by gel diffusion assay. All species had fed mostly on mammals: only 30%) were trapped where domestic pigs were kept close to human habitation. From seven of eight locations on the Australian mainland, the majority of Cx. annulirostris had obtained their bloodmeals from marsupials, probably the Agile wallaby Macropus agilis (Gould). Overall proportions of mosquito bloodmeals identified as marsupial were 60% from the Gulf Plains region of Australia, 78% from the Cape York Peninsula and 64% from the Daru area of Papua New Guinea. Thus, despite the abundance of feral pigs in northern Australia, our findings suggest that marsupials divert host-seeking Cx. annulirostris away from pigs. As marsupials are poor JE virus hosts, the prevalence of marsupials may impede the establishment of JE virus in Australia.

Dynamics of Gray Matter Loss in Alzheimer's Disease

We detected and mapped a dynamically spreading wave of gray matter loss in the brains of patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD). The loss pattern was visualized in four dimensions as it spread over time from temporal and limbic cortices into frontal and occipital brain regions, sparing sensorimotor cortices. The shifting deficits were asymmetric (left hemisphere >right hemisphere) and correlated with progressively declining cognitive status ( p 15% loss). The maps distinguished different phases of AD and differentiated AD from normal aging. Local gray matter loss rates (5.3 +/- 2.3% per year in AD v 0.9 +/- 0.9% per year in controls) were faster in the left hemisphere ( p < 0.029) than the right. Transient barriers to disease progression appeared at limbic/frontal boundaries. This degenerative sequence, observed in vivo as it developed, provides the first quantitative, dynamic visualization of cortical atrophic rates in normal elderly populations and in those with dementia.

Clinical and economic impact of exercise electrocardiography and exercise echocardiography in clinical practice

Background Patients with known or suspected coronary disease are often investigated to facilitate risk assessment. We sought to examine the cost-effectiveness of strategies based on exercise echocardiography and exercise electrocardiography. Methods and results We studied 7656 patients undergoing exercise testing; of whom half underwent exercise echocardiography. Risk was defined with the Duke treadmill score for those undergoing exercise electrocardiography alone, and by the extent of ischaemia by exercise echocardiography. Cox proportional hazards models, risk adjusted for pretest likelihood of coronary artery disease, were used to estimate time to cardiac death or myocardial infarction. Costs (including diagnostic and revascularisation procedures, hospitalisations, and events) were calculated, inflation-corrected to year 2000 using Medicare trust fund rates and discounted at a rate of 5%. A decision model was employed to assess the marginal cost effectiveness (cost/life year saved) of exercise echo compared with exercise electrocardiography. Exercise echocardiography identified more patients as low-risk (51% vs 24%, p<0.001), and fewer as intermediate- (27% vs 51%, p<0.001) and high-risk (22% vs 4%); survival was greater in low- and intermediate- risk and less in high-risk patients. Although initial procedural costs and revascularisation costs (in intermediate- high risk patients) were greater, exercise echocardiography was associated with a greater incremental life expectancy (0.2 years) and a lower use of additional diagnostic procedures when compared with exercise electrocardiography (especially in lower risk patients). Using decision analysis, exercise echocardiography (Euro 2615/life year saved) was more cost effective than exercise electrocardiography. Conclusion Exercise echocardiography may enhance cost-effectiveness for the detection and management of at risk patients with known or suspected coronary disease. (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd on behalf of The European Society of Cardiology.

Actively shielded multi-layer gradient coil designs with improved cooling properties

In standard cylindrical gradient coils consisting of a single layer of wires, a limiting factor in achieving very large magnetic field gradients is the rapid increase in coil resistance with efficiency. This is a particular problem in small-bore scanners, such as those used for MR microscopy. By adopting a multi-layer design in which the coil wires are allowed to spread out into multiple layers wound at increasing radii, a more favourable scaling of resistance with efficiency is achieved, thus allowing the design of more powerful gradient coils with acceptable resistance values. Previously this approach has been applied to the design of unshielded, longitudinal, and transverse gradient coils. Here, the multi-layer approach has been extended to allow the design of actively shielded multi-layer gradient coils, and also to produce coils exhibiting enhanced cooling characteristics. An iterative approach to modelling the steady-state temperature distribution within the coil has also been developed. Results indicate that a good level of screening can be achieved in multi-layer coils, that small versions of such coils can yield higher efficiencies at fixed resistance than conventional two-layer (primary and screen) coils, and that performance improves as the number of layers of increases. Simulations show that by optimising multi-layer coils for cooling it is possible to achieve significantly higher gradient strengths at a fixed maximum operating temperature. A four-layer coil of 8 mm inner diameter has been constructed and used to test the steady-state temperature model. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Multilayer transverse gradient coil design

In small, cylindrical gradient coils consisting of a single layer of wires, the limiting factor in achieving large magnetic field gradients is the rapid increase in coil resistance with efficiency. This behavior results from the decrease in the maximum usable wire diameter as the number of turns is increased. By adopting a multilayer design in which the coil wires are allowed to spread out into multiple layers wound at increasing radii, a more favorable scaling of resistance with efficiency is achieved, thus allowing the design of more powerful gradient coils with acceptable resistance values. By extending the theory used to design standard cylindrical gradient coils, mathematical expressions have been developed that allow the design of multilayer coils. These expressions have previously been applied to the design of a four-layer z-gradient coil. As a further development, the equations have now been modified to allow the design of multilayer transverse gradient coils. The variation in coil performance with the number of layers employed has been investigated for coils of a size suitable for use in NMR microscopy, and the effect of constructing the coil using wires or cuts in a continuous conducting surface has also been assessed. We find that at fixed resistance a small wire-wound two-layer coil offers an increase in efficiency of a factor of about 1.5 compared with a single-layer coil. In addition, a two-layer coil of 10-mm inner diameter has been designed and built. This coil had an efficiency of 0.41 Tm-1 A(-1), a resistance of 0.96 +/- 0.01 Omega, and an inductance of 22.3 +/- 0.2 muH. The coil produces a gradient that deviates from linearity by less than 5% over a central cylindrical region of interest of height and length 6.2 mm. (C) 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Genetic and environmental risk factors and their interactions for Parkinson's disease in a Chinese population

The interaction between genetic and environmental factors for PD was examined in a Chinese population. It was found that although the intron 2 MAOB (GT)(n) repeat polymorphism was not associated with PID in the population, a relationship might have been masked by the protective effect of tea drinking. In individuals who did not drink tea (<1 cup/day), the possession of short length less than or equal to 178 bp (GT), alleles conferred a borderline significant increased risk for PD (adjusted OR = 1.47; C.l. = 1.03-2. 1). As the extent of tea consumption increased, the association between the less than or equal to178 bp allele and PD disappeared. This result suggests that the MAOB gene may be associated with PD in Chinese if the putative protective effect of tea drinking is taken into account. The significance of this finding is unclear as the study may be limited because of its marginal significance and limited numbers. However, it does demonstrate the importance of considering putative positive and negative environmental risk factors in any examination of genetic risk factors for PD. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dietary influences on survival after ovarian cancer

We evaluated the effects of various food groups and micronutrients in the diet on survival among women who originally participated in a population-based case-control study of ovarian cancer conducted across 3 Australian states between 1990 and 1993. This analysis included 609 women with invasive epithelial ovarian cancer, primarily because there was negligible mortality in women with borderline tumors. The women's usual diet was assessed using a validated food frequency questionnaire. Deaths in the cohort were identified using state-based cancer registries and the Australian National Death Index (NDI). Crude 5-year survival probabilities were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier technique, and adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were obtained from Cox regression models. After adjusting for important confounding factors, a survival advantage was observed for those who reported higher intake of vegetables in general (HR = 0.75, 95% CI = 0.57-0.99, p-value trend 0.01 for the highest third, compared to the lowest third), and cruciferous vegetables in particular (HR = 0.75, 95% CI = 0.57-0.98, p-value trend 0.03), and among women in the upper third of intake of vitamin E (HR = 0.76, 95% CI = 0.58-1.01, p-value trend 0.04). Inverse associations were also seen with protein (p-value trend 0.09), red meat (p-value trend 0.06) and white meat (p-value trend 0.07), and modest positive trends (maximum 30% excess) with lactose (p-value trend 0.04), calcium and dairy products. Although much remains to be learned about the influence of nutritional factors after a diagnosis of ovarian cancer, our study suggests the possibility that a diet high in vegetable intake may help improve survival. (C) 2003 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Effect of pore-network connectivity on multicomponent adsorption of large molecules

The effect of pore-network connectivity on binary liquid-phase adsorption equilibria using the ideal adsorbed solution theory (LAST) was studied. The liquid-phase binary adsorption experiments used ethyl propionate, ethyl butyrate, and ethyl isovalerate as the adsorbates and commercial activated carbons Filtrasorb-400 and Norit ROW 0.8 as adsorbents. As the single-component isotherm, a modified Dubinin-Radushkevich equation was used. A comparison with experimental data shows that incorporating the connectivity of the pore network and considering percolation processes associated with different molecular sizes of the adsorptives in the mixture, as well as their different corresponding accessibility, can improve the prediction of binary adsorption equilibria using the LAST Selectivity of adsorption for the larger molecule in binary systems increases with an increase in the pore-network coordination number, as well with an increase in the mean pore width and in the spread of the pore-size distribution.