Modelling basin level allocation of water in the Murray-Darling Basin in a world of uncertainty, Murray-Darling Program Working Papers WPM05-1, Risk and Sustainable Management Group, 8 February 2005

Abstract: The Murray-Darling Basin comprises over 1 million km2; it lies within four states and one territory; and over 12, 800 GL of irrigation water is used to produce over 40% of the nation's gross value of agricultural production. This production is used by a diverse collection of some-times mutually exclusive commodities (e.g. pasture; stone fruit; grapes; cotton and field crops). The supply of water for irrigation is subject to climatic and policy uncertainty. Variable inflows mean that water property rights do not provide a guaranteed supply. With increasing public scrutiny and environmental issues facing irrigators, greater pressure is being placed on this finite resource. The uncertainty of the water supply, water quality (salinity), combined with where water is utilised, while attempting to maximising return for investment makes for an interesting research field. The utilisation and comparison of a GAMS and Excel based modelling approach has been used to ask: where should we allocate water?; amongst what commodities?; and how does this affect both the quantity of water and the quality of water along the Murray-Darling river system?

Features of colorectal cancers with high-level microsatellite instability occurring in familial and sporadic settings

High-level microsatellite instability (AISI-H) is demonstrated in 10 to 15% of sporadic colorectal cancers and in most cancers presenting In the inherited condition hereditary nonpolyposis colorectal cancer (HNPCC). Distinction between these categories of MSI-H cancer is of clinical importance and the aim of this study was to assess clinical, pathological, and molecular features that might he discriminatory. One hundred and twelve MSI-H colorectal cancers from families fulfilling the Bethesda criteria were compared with 57 sporadic MSI-H colorectal cancers. HNPCC cancers presented at a lower age (P < 0.001) with no sporadic MSI-H cancer being diagnosed before the age of 57 years. MSI was less extensive in HNPCC cancers with 72% microsatellite markers showing band shifts compared with 87% in sporadic tumors (P < 0.001). Absent immunostaining for hMSH2 was only found in HNPCC tumors. Methylation of bMLH1 was observed in 87% of sporadic cancers but also in 55% of HNPCC tumors that showed loss of expression of hMLH1 (P = 0.02). HNPCC cancers were more frequently characterized by aberrant beta -catenin immunostaining as evidenced by nuclear positivity (P < 0.001). Aberrant p53 immunostaining was infrequent in both groups. There were no differences with respect to 5q loss of heterozygosity or codon 12 K-ras mutation, which were infrequent in both groups. Sporadic MSI-H cancers were more frequently heterogeneous (P < 0.001), poorly differentiated (P = 0.02), mucinous (P = 0.02), and proximally located (P = 0.04) than RNPCC tumors. In sporadic MSI-H cancers, contiguous adenomas were likely to be serrated whereas traditional adenomas were dominant in HNPCC. Lymphocytic infiltration was more pronounced in HNPCC but the results did not reach statistical significance. Overall, HNPCC cancers were more like common colorectal cancer in terms of morphology and expression of beta -catenin whereas sporadic MSI-H cancers displayed features consistent with a different morphogenesis. No individual feature was discriminatory for all RN-PCC cancers. However, a model based on four features was able to classify 94.5% of tumors as sporadic or HNPCC. The finding of multiple differences between sporadic and familial MSI-H colorectal cancer with respect to both genotype and phenotype is consistent with tumorigenesis through parallel evolutionary pathways and emphasizes the importance of studying the two groups separately.

Methylation of O-6-methylguanine DNA methyltransferase characterizes a subset of colorectal cancer with low-level DNA microsatellite instability

The significance of low-level DNA microsatellite instability (MSI-L) is not well understood. K-ras mutation is associated with MSI-L colorectal cancer and with the silencing of the DNA repair gene O-6-methylguanine DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) by methylation of its promoter region. MGMT methylation was studied in sporadic colorectal cancers stratified as DNA microsatellite instability-high (n = 23), MSI-L (n = 44), and microsatellite-stable (n = 23). Methylation-specific PCR was used to detect MGMT-promoter hypermethylation in 3 of 23 (13%) microsatellite instability-high, in 28 of 44 (64%) MSI-L, and in 6 of 23 (26%) microsatellite-stable cancers (P = 0.0001). K-ras was mutated in 20 of 29 (69%) methylated MSI-L cancers and in 2 of 15 (13%) unmethylated MSI-L cancers (P = 0.001), indicating a relationship between MGMT-methylation and mutation of K-ras. Loss of nuclear expression of MGMT was demonstrated immunohistochemically in 23 of 31 (74%) cancers with methylated MGMT and in 10 of 49 (20%) cancers with nonmethylated MGMT (P < 0.0001). Loss of expression of MGMT was also demonstrated in 9 of 31 serrated polyps. Silencing of MGMT may predispose to mutation by overwhelming the DNA mismatch repair system and occurs with greatest frequency in MSI-L colorectal cancers.

Proliferation, apoptosis, and survival in high-level microsatellite instability sporadic colorectal cancer

Sporadic colorectal cancer (CRC) characterized by high-level DNA microsatellite instability (MSI-H) has a favorable prognosis. The reason for this MSI-H survival advantage is not known. The aim of this study was to correlate proliferation, apoptosis, and prognosis in CRC stratified by MSI status. The proliferative index (PI) was measured by immunohistochemical staining with the Ki-67 antibody in a selected series of 100 sporadic colorectal cancers classified according to the level of MSI as 31 MSI-H, 29 MSI-Low (MSI-L), and 40 microsatellite stable (MISS). The Ki-67 index was significantly higher in MSI-H cancers (P < 0.0001) in which the PI was 90.1 1.2% (mean +/- SE) compared with 69.5 +/- 3.1 % and 69.5 +/- 2.3 % in MSI-L and MSS subgroups, respectively. There was a positive linear correlation between the apoptotic index (AI) and PI (r = 0.51; P < 0.001), with MSI-H cancers demonstrating an increased AI:PI ratio indicative of a lower index of cell production. A high PI showed a trend toward predicting improved survival within MSI-H cancers (P = 0.09) but did not predict survival in MSI-L or MSS cancers. The Al was not associated with survival in any MSI subgroup. In conclusion, this is the first study to show that sporadic MSI-H cancers are characterized by a higher AL:PI ratio and increased proliferative activity compared with MSI-L and MSS cancers, and that an elevated PI may confer a survival advantage within the MSI-H subset.

High frequency of low-level microsatellite instability in early colorectal cancer

Molecular events in early colorectal cancers (CRCs) have not been well elucidated because of the low incidence of early CRCs in clinical practice. Therefore, we studied 104 sporadic early CRCs with invasion limited to submucosa compared with 116 advanced CRCs. Loss of heterozygosity as well as microsatellite instability (MSI) status was examined. A significantly high frequency of low-level MSI (MSI-L) phenotype was detected in early CRCs (51.0%) compared with advanced CRCs (25.9%; P = 0.0001). In early and advanced CRCs, samples with MSI-L phenotype differed from microsatellite stable (MSS) phenotype with respect to loss of heterozygosity at 1p32 and 8p12-22. MSI-L is a frequent genetic event in early CRCs and may be a novel pathway in colorectal carcinogenesis distinct from both MSI-H and MSS.

Low-level lead exposure and children

The adverse effects of environmental lead exposure on the mental development of young children are well established. There is no safe level of blood lead below which children are not affected. Recent research expands our understanding of the impact of lead exposure continuing into later childhood, as well as its effects on children's behaviour. However, social and other environmental factors also contribute to variance in measures of developmental and behavioural outcomes. Lead is associated with only modest effects on children's development, but is a potentially modifiable risk factor. As environmental exposure to lead declines for the whole population, continued specific attention is needed for children living in industrial areas.

Resting energy expenditure of children attending a rehabilitation programme following head injury

Statement of purpose: Increased resting energy expenditure following head injury is well documented, but whether this increase extends into rehabilitation and whether this is affected by changes in body composition have not been studied. The aim of this study was to determine whether children attending a rehabilitation program following head injury had altered energy expenditure and body composition. Methods: Measurements of resting energy expenditure by indirect calorimetry were performed in 21 head injured children (mean age 10.2±3.8 years). Measurement of body composition was performed using total body potassium. Results: Measured resting energy expenditure values were widely distributed, ranging from 52.3-156.4% of predicted values, yet the mean percentage predicted using Schofield weight, Schofield weight and height and World Health Organization predictive equations were 97.5%, 97.4% and 98.6%, respectively. Mean percentage of expected total body potassium for weight, height and age for head injured children were 85.1 ± 15.5%, 89.1 ± 14.1% and 86.9 ± 15.9%, thus all showed significant depletion. Conclusions: During rehabilitation, using predictive equations to estimate resting energy expenditure in this group revealed a small bias on average but very large bias at the individual level. Head injured children had altered resting energy expenditure and body composition.

Opportunities for the control of coronary heart disease in Australia

Objective: To estimate the number of coronary events that could be prevented in Australia each year by the use of preventive and therapeutic strategies targeted to subgroups of the population based on their levels of risk and need. Methods: Estimates of risk reduction from the published literature, prevalence estimates of elevated risk factor levels from the 1995 National Health Survey and treatment levels from the Australian collaborating centres in the World Health Organization's MONICA Project were used to calculate numbers of coronary events preventable among men and women aged 35-79 years in Australia. Results: Approximately 14,000 coronary events could be avoided each year if the mean level of cholesterol in the population was reduced by 0.5 mmol/L, smoking prevalence was halved and prevalence of physical inactivity was reduced to 25%. This represents a reduction in coronary events of about 40%. Even with less optimistic targets, a reduction of 20% could be attained, while the achievement of some internationally recommended targets could lead to almost 50% reduction. In the short term, aggressive medical treatment of people with elevated levels of risk factors and established coronary disease offers the greatest opportunity for reducing coronary events. Conclusion: A comprehensive approach to reduce levels of behavioural and biological risk factors and improve the use of effective treatment could lead to a large reduction in coronary event rates. In the long term, primary prevention - especially to reduce smoking, lower cholesterol levels and increase exercise - has the potential to reduce the population levels of risk and hence contain the national cost of coronary disease.

Somatotopic organization and cortical projections of the ventrobasal complex of the flying fox: an "inverted" wing representation in the thalamus

The present study investigates the somatotopic representation in the somatosensory thalamus of a megachiropteran bat. Using standard microelectrode mapping techniques, representational maps were generated for the ventrobasal (Vb) and posterior (Po) thalamic complexes of the Grey-headed flying fox. Anatomical tracing from neocortical injections provided additional data confirming the somatotopy found physiologically. A full representation of the body surface innervated by the trigeminal and spinal nerves was found. However, in contrast with other mammals, the representations of the forelimb and adjacent thoracic trunk within the thalamus were inverted. This means that the distal portions of the wing membrane and the tips of the digits were represented dorsally in Vb, and the thoracic trunk was represented ventrally In Po the digit tips were represented in the ventral most portion and the thoracic trunk in the dorsal portion of the nucleus. These results are discussed in relation to similarities of megachiropteran somatosensory thalamic nuclei to those of other mammalian species and in relation to the formation of thalamic somatotopic maps and fiber sorting.

Genomic organization of the CC chemokine MIP-3 alpha/CCL20/LARC/EXODUS/SCYA20, showing gene structure, splice variants, and chromosome localization

We describe the genomic organization of a recently identified CC chemokine, MIP3 alpha /CCL20 (HGMW-approved symbol SCYA20). The MIP-3 alpha /CCL20 gene was cloned and sequenced, revealing a four exon, three intron structure, and was localized by FISK analysis to 2q35-q36. Two distinct cDNAs were identified, encoding two forms of MIP-3 alpha /CCL20, Ala MLP-3 alpha /CCL20 and Ser MIP-3 alpha /CCL20, that differ by one amino acid at the predicted signal peptide cleavage site. Examination of the sequence around the boundary of intron 1 and exon 2 showed that use of alternative splice acceptor sites could give rise to Ata MIP-3 alpha /CCL20 or Ser MIP-3 alpha /CCL20. Both forms of MIP-3cr/CCL20 were chemically synthesized and tested for biological activity. Both flu antigen plus IL-a-activated CD4(+) and CD8(+) T lymphoblasts and cord blood-derived dendritic cells responded to Ser and Ala MIP-3 alpha /CCL20. T lymphocytes exposed only to IL-2 responded inconsistently, while no response was detected in naive T lymphocytes, monocytes, or neutrophils. The biological activity of Ser MIP-3 alpha /CCL20 and Ala MIP-3 alpha /CCL20 and the tissue-specific preference of different splice acceptor sites are not yet known. (C) 2001 Academic Press.

Individual and societal bases of national identity - A comparative multi-level analysis

In a previous study (Jones and Smith, 1999) we established that much the same core pattern of national identity characterizes many developed countries. Using the national identity module from the 1995 International Social Survey Programme, we identified two dimensions of national identity: an ascriptive dimension resembling the concept of ethnic identity described in the historical and theoretical literature, and a voluntarist dimension closer to the notion of civic identity. Some writers view these dimensions in terms of a historical sequence but we find that both constructs coexist in the minds of individual respondents in the nations we examine (we exclude Bulgaria and the Philippines from the present but not the earlier analysis). The dataset used for the multilevel analyses reported here consists of 28 589 respondents in the remaining 21 countries included in the national identity database for the 1995 round of surveys. The macrosociological literature on national identity does not offer well-defined predictions about what precise patterns of national identification we might expect to find among the masses of the developed countries. There are, however, recurring themes from which one can construct plausible hypotheses about how countries might differ according to their level of development, broadly conceived. Thus, we hypothesize that forces such as post-industrialism and globalization tend to favour the more open voluntaristic form of national identity over the more restrictive ascribed form. We develop different multi-level models in order to evaluate specific hypotheses pertaining to such issues, by simultaneously relating individual and societal characteristics to the relative strength of individual commitment to these different types of national identity.

Biosynthesis and insecticidal properties of plant cyclotides: The cyclic knotted proteins from Oldenlandia affinis

Several members of the Rubiaceae and Violaceae families produce a series of cycloticles or macrocyclic peptides of 29-31 amino acids with an embedded cystine knot. We aim to understand the mechanism of synthesis of cyclic peptides in plants and have isolated a cDNA clone that encodes the cyclotide kalata Ell as well as three other clones for related cycloticles from the African plant Olden-landia affinis. The cDNA clones encode prepropeptides with a 20-aa signal sequence, an N-terminal prosequence of 46-68 amino acids and one, two, or three cyclotide domains separated by regions of about 25 aa. The corresponding cycloticles have been isolated from plant material, indicating that the cyclotide domains are excised and cyclized from all four predicted precursor proteins. The exact processing site is likely to lie on the N-terminal side of the strongly conserved GlyLeuPro or SerLeuPro sequence that flanks both sides of the cyclotide domain. Cyclotides have previously been assigned an antimicrobial function; here we describe a potent inhibitory effect on the growth and development of larvae from the Lepidopteran species Helicoverpa punctigera.