Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for burden of disease and risk factor estimates

Epidemiological studies report confidence or uncertainty intervals around their estimates. Estimates of the burden of diseases and risk factors are subject to a broader range of uncertainty because of the combination of multiple data sources and value choices. Sensitivity analysis can be used to examine the effects of social values that have been incorporated into the design of the disability–adjusted life year (DALY). Age weight, where a year of healthy life lived at one age is valued differently from at another age, is the most controversial value built into the DALY. The discount rate, which addresses the difference in value of current versus future health benefits, also has been criticized. The distribution of the global disease burden and rankings of various conditions are largely insensitive to alternate assumptions about the discount rate and age weighting. The major effects of discounting and age weighting are to enhance the importance of neuropsychiatric conditions and sexually transmitted infections. The Global Burden of Disease study also has been criticized for estimating mortality and disease burden for regions using incomplete and uncertain data. Including uncertain results, with uncertainty quantified to the extent possible, is preferable, however, to leaving blank cells in tables intended to provide policy makers with an overall assessment of burden of disease. No estimate is generally interpreted as no problem. Greater investment in getting the descriptive epidemiology of diseases and injuries correct in poor countries will do vastly more to reduce uncertainty in disease burden assessments than a philosophical debate about the appropriateness of social value

Early life course determinants of young adults' gambling behaviour. An Australian Longitudinal Study

Problem gambling represents a public concern as both a social and health issue. Available evidence shows problem gambling is associated with a range of psychological disorders, criminality, and disruption to families. While gambling itself may represent a pleasurable pursuit for the majority, for a proportion, gambling-related activities may assume many of the characteristics of an addiction and have the capacity to undermine individuals� mental and physical health, social relationships, financial independence, as well as the financial and psychological wellbeing of their families and/or friends. The objectives of this study are based on the need to increase our understanding of gambling behaviour, its antecedents, as well its influence on the health and wellbeing of gamblers and their families. One of the most important and unresolved issues in gambling research is whether the mental health and social/family correlates of gambling precede or follow gambling behaviour. This report focuses on this issue.

Integrable open boundary conditions for the Bariev model of three coupled X Y spin chains

The integrable open-boundary conditions for the Bariev model of three coupled one-dimensional XY spin chains are studied in the framework of the boundary quantum inverse scattering method. Three kinds of diagonal boundary K-matrices leading to nine classes of possible choices of boundary fields are found and the corresponding integrable boundary terms are presented explicitly. The boundary Hamiltonian is solved by using the coordinate Bethe ansatz technique and the Bethe ansatz equations are derived. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Prevalence of Adverse Life Events, Depression and Suicidal Thoughts and Behaviour among a Community Sample of Young People aged 15-24 Years

Objective: To provide prevalence data on several key mental health indicators for young people aged 15 to 24 years. Methods: A cross-sectional household survey, using telephone recruitment followed by a postal pencil-and-paper questionnaire. The overall response rate was 67.3%. Results: Difficulties with interpersonal relationships are common causes of distress for young people, in particular problems with parents, problems with friends and relationship break-ups. Depressive symptomatology is common among young people with approximately one in eight males and one in four females reporting current depressive symptomatology. One in three young people reported that they had had suicidal thoughts at some time in the past, 1.2% of young people reported that they had made a plan on how to kill themselves in the four-week period prior to completing the survey and 6.9% of young people reported that they had tried to kill themselves at some time during their life time (4.2% of males and 9.0% of females). Conclusions and implications: The prevalence figures for the various mental health indicators presented in this paper represent good baseline information upon which to examine the progress over time of interventions designed to improve the mental health of young people.

A comparison of family functioning, temperament, and childhood conditions in monozygotic twin pairs discordant for lifetime bulimia nervosa

Objective: The authors investigated differences between twins in nine pairs of female monozygotic twins in the Australian Twin Registry who were discordant for lifetime bulimia nervosa. Method: The twins affected and unaffected by lifetime bulimia nervosa were compared on self-report measures, including a measure of parental bonding, four measures of temperament, and six early-childhood medical conditions. Results: No twins had current bulimia nervosa, and there was no difference in weight or eating status between the affected and unaffected twins. The affected twins reported significantly lower self-esteem and less warmth but more overprotection by their mothers during childhood. Conclusions: Although limited by the small number of discordant twin pairs and the inability to detect causal relationships, these results suggest that environmental influences that promote low self-esteem may also increase the risk for bulimia nervosa. These temperamental differences may explain the discrepancies in parenting or perceived parenting.

Conceptualizing quality of life for elderly people with stroke

Purpose : Despite increased interest in quality of life (QOL) as an outcome measure and as a means of identifying client needs in health care, its conceptualisation and the identification of its constituents have been poorly researched for elderly people with stroke in Hong Kong. Method: This article analysed the literature to identify components relevant to the QOL of Chinese elderly people with stroke living in the community in Hong Kong. Results : While common components of QOL for elderly people with and without stroke and regardless of cultural background were identified, a number were specific to an elderly Chinese stroke population. Conclusion : Recommendations for future research have been made with reference to further exploring and validating these components for the target population. A clear understanding of these aspects is essential for the development of sensitive QOL measures to guide and evaluate service delivery to this population.