The use and abuse of population viability analysis

A recent study by Brook ef al. empirically tested the performance of population viability analysis (PVA) using data from 21 populations across a wide range of species. The study concluded that PVAs are good at predicting the future dynamics of populations. We suggest that this conclusion is a result of a bias in the studies that Brook et al, included in their analyses, We present arguments that PVAs can only be accurate at predicting extinction probabilities if data are extensive and reliable, and if the distribution of vital rates between individuals and years can be assumed stationary in the future, or if any changes can be accurately predicted. In particular, we note th at although catastrophes are likely to have precipitated many extinctions, estimates of the probability of catastrophes are unreliable.

Pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of melphalan in isolated limb infusion for recurrent localized limb malignancy

Isolated limb infusion (ILI) is an attractive, less complex alternative to Isolated limb perfusion (ILP). It has a lower morbidity in treating localized recurrences and in transit metastases of the limb for tumours such as melanoma, Merkel cell tumour and Kaposi's sarcoma, allowing administration of high concentrations of cytotoxic agent to the affected limb under hypoxic conditions. Melphalan is the preferred cytotoxic agent for the treatment of melanoma by ILP or ILI. We report pharmacokinetic data from 12 patients treated by ILI for tumours of the limb in Brisbane. The kinetics of drug distribution in the limb was calculated using a two-compartment vascular model, where both tissue and infusate act as well-stirred compartments. Analysis of melphalan concentrations in the perfusate during ILI showed good agreement between the values measured and the concentrations predicted by the model. Recirculation and wash-out flow rates, tissue concentrations and the permeability surface area product (PS) were calculated. Correlations between the PS value and the drug concentrations In the perfusate and tissue were supported by the results. These data contribute to a better understanding of the distribution of melphalan during ILI in the limb, and offer the opportunity to optimize the drug regimen for patients undergoing ILI. (C) 2001 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

Variation in Alcohol Pharmacokinetics as a Risk Factor for Alcohol Dependence

Background: The significant association between alcohol dehydrogenase (ADH)-2 genotype and alcohol-dependence risk, demonstrated in both Asian and non-Asian populations, suggests a link between the metabolism of alcohol (ethanol) and individual differences in susceptibility to dependence. Methods: We tested this hypothesis by following up on subjects who took part in the Alcohol Challenge Twin Study conducted in 1979-1981 and comparing the blood and breath alcohol results in that study between subjects who subsequently did or did not meet diagnostic criteria for lifetime alcohol dependence in 1992-1993. Results: Subjects who met DSM-III-R criteria for lifetime alcohol dependence at follow-up had higher blood and breath alcohol values after alcohol challenge than never-dependent subjects. Multivariate analysis showed independent effects of susceptibility to alcohol dependence and smoking status on blood alcohol concentrations, whereas habitual alcohol intake at the time of the initial study had marginally significant effects. The risk of alcohol dependence was 2-fold higher in men and 3-fold higher in women with blood or breath alcohol concentrations in the highest quartile than in the lowest quartile. Conclusions: In view of this association and the known genetic influences on both alcohol pharmacokinetics and alcohol dependence, it is probable that part of the heritability of dependence is mediated by genes (other than the known ADH2 and ADH3 polymorphisms) affecting alcohol metabolism.

Relating body mass index to figural stimuli: population-based normative data for Caucasians

OBJECTIVE: To establish body mass index (BMI) norms for standard figural stimuli using a large Caucasian population-based sample. In addition, we sought to determine the effectiveness of the figural stimuli to identify individuals as obese or thin. DESIGN: All Caucasian twins born in Virginia between 1915 and 1971 were identified by public birth record. In addition, 3347 individual twins responded to a letter published in the newsletter of the American Association of Retired Persons (AARP). All adult twins (aged 18 and over) from both of these sources and their family members were mailed a 16 page 'Health and Lifestyle' questionnaire. SUBJECTS: BMI and silhouette data were available on 16 728 females and 11 366 males ranging in age from 18- 100. MEASUREMENTS: Self-report information on height-weight, current body size, desired body size and a discrepancy score using standard figural stimuli. RESULTS: Gender- and age-specific norms are presented linking BMI to each of the figural stimuli. Additional norms for desired body size and discrepancy scores are also presented. Receiver operating curves (ROC) indicate that the figural stimuli are effective in classifying individuals as obese or thin. CONCLUSIONS: With the establishment of these norms, the silhouettes used in standard body image assessment can now be linked to BMI. Differences were observed between women and men in terms of desired body size and discrepancy scores, with women preferring smaller sizes. The figural stimuli are a robust technique for classifying individuals as obese or thin.

Increasing relevance of pharmacogenetics of drug metabolism in clinical practice

Much of the individual variation in drug response is due to genetic drug metabolic polymorphisms. Clinically relevant examples include acetylator status; cytochrome P450 2D6, 2C9 and 2C19 polymorphisms; and thiopurine methyltransferase deficiency. It is important to be aware of which drugs are subject to pharmacogenetic variability. In the future, population-based pharmacogenetic testing will allow more individualized drug treatment and will avoid the current empiricism.

A new wavelet-based method for the solution of the population balance equation

A new wavelet-based method for solving population balance equations with simultaneous nucleation, growth and agglomeration is proposed, which uses wavelets to express the functions. The technique is very general, powerful and overcomes the crucial problems of numerical diffusion and stability that often characterize previous techniques in this area. It is also applicable to an arbitrary grid to control resolution and computational efficiency. The proposed technique has been tested for pure agglomeration, simultaneous nucleation and growth, and simultaneous growth and agglomeration. In all cases, the predicted and analytical particle size distributions are in excellent agreement. The presence of moving sharp fronts can be addressed without the prior investigation of the characteristics of the processes. (C) 2001 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.

Distribution of Actinobacillus actinomycetemcomitans, Porphyromonas gingivalis and Prevotella intermedia in an Australian population

Background, aim: The present study describes (i) the natural distribution of the three putative periodontopathogens Porphyromonas gingivalis, Prevotella intermedia and Actinobacillus actinomycetemcomitans in an Australian population and (ii) the relationship between these organisms, pocket depths and supragingival plaque scores. Methods: Subgingival plaque was collected from the shallowest and deepest probing site in each sextant of the dentition. In total, 6030 subgingival plaque samples were collected from 504 subjects. An ELISA utilising pathogen-specific monoclonal antibodies was used to quantitate bacterial numbers. Results:: A. actinomycetemcomitans was the most frequently detected organism (22.8% of subjects) followed by P. gingivalis and P. intermedia (14.7% and 9.5% of subjects respectively). The majority of infected subjects (83%) were colonised by a single species of organism. A. actinomyceteincomitans presence was overrepresented in the youngest age group but under-represented in the older age groups. Conversely, P. gingivalis and P. intermedia presence was under-represented in the youngest age group but over-represented in the older age groups. Differing trends in the distribution of these bacteria were observed between subjects depending upon the site of the infection or whether a single or mixed infection was present; however, these differences did not reach significance. Bacterial presence was strongly associated with pocket depth for both A. actinomyceteincomitans and P. gingivalis. For A. actinomycetemcomitans, the odds of a site containing this bacterium decrease with deeper pockets. In contrast, for P. gingivalis the odds of a site being positive are almost six times greater for pockets >3 ram than for pockets less than or equal to3 nun. These odds increase further to 15.3 for pockets deeper than 5 mm. The odds of a site being P. intermedia positive were marginally greater (1.16) for pockets deeper than 3 mm. Conclusions: This cross-sectional study in a volunteer Australian population, demonstrated recognised periodontal pathogens occur as part of the flora of the subgingival plaque. Prospective longitudinal studies are needed to examine the positive relationship between pocket depth and pathogen presence with periodontal disease initiation and/or progression.

A longitudinal study of interleukin-1 gene polymorphisms and periodontal disease in a general adult population

Background: Cross-sectional studies have demonstrated that a specific polymorphism (allele 2 of both IL-1A +4845 and IL-1B +3954) in the IL-1 gene cluster has been associated with an increased susceptibility to severe periodontal disease and to an increased bleeding tendency during periodontal maintenance. The aim of the present study was to investigate the relationship between IL-1 genotype and periodontitis in a prospective longitudinal study in an adult population of essentially European heritage. Methods: From an ongoing study of the Oral Care Research Programme of The University of Queensland, 295 subjects consented to genotyping for IL-1 allele 2 polymorphisms. Probing depths and relative attachment levels were recorded at baseline, 6, 12, 24, 36, 48 and 60 months using the Florida probe. Periodontitis progression at a given site was defined as attachment loss greater than or equal to2 mm at any observation period during the 5 years of the study and the extent of disease progression determined by the number of sites showing attachment loss. Porphyromonas gingivalis, Actinobacillus actinomycetemcomitans and Prevotella intermedia were detected using ELISA. Results: 38.9% of the subjects were positive for the composite IL-1 genotype. A relationship between the IL-1 positive genotype and increased mean probing pocket depth in non-smokers greater than 50 years of age was found. Further, IL-1 genotype positive smokers and genotype positive subjects with P. gingivalis in their plaque had an increase in the number of probing depths greater than or equal to3.5 mm, There was a consistent trend for IL-1 genotype positive subjects to experience attachment loss when compared with IL-1 genotype negative subjects. Conclusion: The results of this study have shown an interaction of the IL-1 positive genotype with age, smoking and P. gingivalis which suggests that IL-1 genotype is a contributory but non-essential risk factor for periodontal disease progression in this population.

A proposal for developing a large patient population cohort for longterm safety monitoring in rheumatoid arthritis

This paper proposes the creation of an objectively acquired reference database to more accurately characterize the incidence and longterm risk of relatively infrequent, but serious, adverse events. Such a database would be maintained longitudinally to provide for ongoing comparison with new rheumatologic drug safety databases collecting the occurrences and treatments of rare events, We propose the establishment of product-specific registries to prospectively follow a cohort of patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) who receive newly approved therapies. In addition, a database is required of a much larger cohort of RA patients treated with multiple second line agents of sufficient size to enable case-controlled determinations of the relative incidence of rare but serious events in the treated (registry) versus the larger disease population, The number of patients necessary for agent-specific registries and a larger patient population adequate to supply a matched case-control cohort will depend upon estimates of the detectability of an increased incidence over background. We suggest a system to carry out this proposal that will involve an umbrella organization. responsible for establishment of this large patient cohort, envisioned to be drawn from around the world.

Pharmacokinetics of ciprofloxacin in ICU patients on continuous veno-venous haemodiafiltration

Objectives: To investigate the pharmacokinetics of intravenous ciprofloxacin 200 mg every 8 h in critically ill patients on continuous veno-venous haemodiafiltration (CVVHDF), one form of continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT). Design and setting: Open, prospective clinical study in a multidisciplinary, intensive care unit in a university-affiliated tertiary referral hospital. Patients: Sis critically ill patients with acute renal failure on CVVHDF. Interventions: Timed blood and ultrafiltrate samples were collected to allow pharmacokinetics and clearances to be calculated of initial and subsequent doses of 200 mg intravenous ciprofloxacin. CVVHD was performed with 1 l/h of dialysate and 2 l/h of predilution filtration solution, producing 3 lih of dialysis effluent. The blood was pumped at 200 ml/min using a Gambro BMM-10 blood pump through a Hospal AN69HF haemofilter,. Measurements and results: Ten pharmacokinetic profiles were measured. The CVVHDF displayed a urea clearance of 42 +/- 3 ml/min, and removed ciprofloxacin with a clearance of 37 +/- 7 ml/min. This rate was 2-2.5 greater than previously published for ciprofloxacin in other forms of CRRT. On average the CVVHDF was responsible for clearing a fifth of all ciprofloxacin eliminated (21 +/- 10%). The total body clearance of ciprofloxacin was 12.2 +/- 4.3 l/h. The trough concentration following the initial dose was 0.7 +/- 0.3 mg/l. The area under the plasma concentration time curves over a 24-h period ranged from 21 to 55 mg .h l(-1). Conclusions: Intravenous ciprofloxacin 600 mg/day in critically ill patients using this form of CRRT produced adequate plasma levels for many resistant microbes found in intensive care units.

The pharmacokinetics of once-daily dosing of ceftriaxone in critically ill patients

The aim of this study was to determine the pharmacokinetic profile of the normal recommended dose of ceftriaxone in critically ill patients and to establish whether the current daily dosing recommendation maintains plasma concentrations adequate for antibacterial efficacy. Ceftriaxone at a recommended dose of 2 g iv was administered od to 12 critically ill patients with severe sepsis and normal serum creatinine concentrations. Blood samples were taken at predetermined intervals over the first 24 h and on day 3 for measurement of ceftriaxone concentrations. There was wide variability in drug disposition, explained by the presence of variable renal function and identified by the measurement of creatinine clearance. In nine patients with normal renal function, there was a high level of creatinine clearance(mean +/- S.D., 41 +/- 12 mL/min) and volume of distribution (20 +/- 3.3 L), which resulted in an elimination half-life of 6.4 +/- 1.1 h. In comparison with normal subjects, ceftriaxone clearance was increased 100%, volume of distribution increased 90% and the elimination half-life was similar. Three patients had substantially suboptimal plasma ceftriaxone concentrations. We confirm previous findings that ceftriaxone clearance in critically ill patients correlates with renal clearance by glomerular filtration. The elimination half-life is prolonged (21.4 +/- 9.8 h) in critically ill patients with renal failure when compared with previously published data in non-critically ill patients with renal failure. We conclude that in critically ill patients with normal renal function, inadequate plasma concentrations may result following od bolus dosing of ceftriaxone. Drug accumulation may occur in critically ill patients with renal failure.

Population screening for HFE-associated haemochromatosis: should we have to pay for our genes?

Haemochromatosis associated with mutations in the HFE gene is the most common inherited disorder in Caucasian populations. Early diagnosis and treatment allows for normal life expectancy whereas there is considerable morbidity and early mortality in those patients diagnosed late or untreated. Unfortunately, the development of symptoms and signs in haemochromatosis is usually associated with significant iron overload. For this reason, many clinicians and geneticists have advocated population screening. The recent identification of the HFE gene and the availability of a simple DNA-based diagnostic test have led to international debate as to the most cost-effective means of population screening for HFE-associated haemochromatosis. The present paper summarizes the evidence in favour of population screening and analyses the relative advantages of genotypic (DNA test) versus phenotypic (transferrin saturation) testing.