Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for burden of disease and risk factor estimates

Epidemiological studies report confidence or uncertainty intervals around their estimates. Estimates of the burden of diseases and risk factors are subject to a broader range of uncertainty because of the combination of multiple data sources and value choices. Sensitivity analysis can be used to examine the effects of social values that have been incorporated into the design of the disability–adjusted life year (DALY). Age weight, where a year of healthy life lived at one age is valued differently from at another age, is the most controversial value built into the DALY. The discount rate, which addresses the difference in value of current versus future health benefits, also has been criticized. The distribution of the global disease burden and rankings of various conditions are largely insensitive to alternate assumptions about the discount rate and age weighting. The major effects of discounting and age weighting are to enhance the importance of neuropsychiatric conditions and sexually transmitted infections. The Global Burden of Disease study also has been criticized for estimating mortality and disease burden for regions using incomplete and uncertain data. Including uncertain results, with uncertainty quantified to the extent possible, is preferable, however, to leaving blank cells in tables intended to provide policy makers with an overall assessment of burden of disease. No estimate is generally interpreted as no problem. Greater investment in getting the descriptive epidemiology of diseases and injuries correct in poor countries will do vastly more to reduce uncertainty in disease burden assessments than a philosophical debate about the appropriateness of social value

Chemokines in human periodontal disease tissues

An immunoperoxidase technique was used to examine IP-10 (interferon-gamma inducible protein 10), RANTES (regulated on activation normal T cell expressed and secreted), MCP-1 (monocyte chemoattractant protein-1), and MIP-1alpha (macrophage inflammatory protein-1alpha) in gingival biopsies from 21 healthy/gingivitis and 26 periodontitis subjects. The samples were placed into 3 groups according to the size of infiltrate. MIP-1alpha+ cells were more abundant than the other chemokines with few MCP-1+ cells. The mean percent MIP-1alpha+ cells was higher than the percent MCP-1+ cells (P = 0.02) in group 2 (intermediate size infiltrates) lesions from periodontitis subjects, other differences not being significant due to the large variations between tissue samples. Analysis of positive cells in relation to CD4/CD8 ratios showed that with an increased proportion of CD8+ cells, the mean percent MIP-1alpha+ cells was significantly higher in comparison with the mean percent RANTES+ and MCP-1+ cells (P < 0.015). Endothelial cells were MCP-1+ although positive capillaries were found on the periphery of infiltrates only. Keratinocyte expression of chemokines was weak and while the numbers of healthy/gingivitis and periodontitis tissue sections positive for IP-10, RANTES and MCP-1 reduced with increasing inflammation, those positive for MIP-1alpha remained constant for all groups. In conclusion, fewer leucocytes expressed MCP-1 in gingival tissue sections, however, the percent MIP-1alpha+ cells was increased particularly in tissues with increased proportions of CD8 cells and B cells with increasing inflammation and also in tissues with higher numbers of macrophages with little inflammation. Further studies are required to determine the significance of MIP-1alpha in periodontal disease.

Costimulatory molecules in human periodontal disease tissue

An immunoperoxidase technique was used to examine CD28, CD152, CD80 and CD86 positive cells in gingival biopsies from 21 healthy/gingivitis and 26 periodontitis subjects. The samples were placed into 3 groups (small, intermediate, large) according to the size of the infiltrate. The percent CD28+ T cells in the connective tissue infiltrates was highly variable with no differences between the healthy/gingivitis and periodontitis groups. While there was an increase in positive cells in intermediate infiltrates from both healthy/gingivitis (28.5%) and periodontitis (21.4%) patients compared with small infiltrates (8.6% and 11.8%, respectively), this was not significant, although the percent CD28+ T cells did increase significantly in tissues with increased proportions of B cells relative to T cells (p=0.047). A mean of less than 5% infiltrating T cells were CD152+ which was significantly lower than the mean percent CD28+ T cells in intermediate healthy/gingivitis lesions (p=0.021). The mean percent CD80+ and CD86+ B cells and macrophages was 1–7% and 8–16%, respectively, the difference being significant in intermediate healthy/gingivitis tissues (p=0.012). Analysis of these cells in relation to increasing numbers of B cells in proportion to T cells and also to macrophages, suggested that CD80 was expressed predominantly by macrophages while CD86 was expressed by both macrophages and B cells. Few endothelial cells expressed CD80 or CD86. Keratinocytes displayed cytoplasmic staining of CD80 rather than CD86 although the numbers of positive specimens in the healthy/gingivitis and periodontitis groups reduced with increasing inflammation. In conclusion, percentages of CD28, CD152, CD80 and CD86 did not reflect differences in clinical status. However, the percent CD28+ T cells increased with increasing size of infiltrate and with increasing proportions of B cells suggesting increased T/B cell interactions with increasing inflammation. The percent CD152+ cells remained low indicating that CD152 may not be involved in negative regulation of T cells in periodontal disease. CD80 and CD86 have been reported to promote Th1 and Th2 responses, respectively, and the higher percent CD86+ cells suggests a predominance of Th2 responses in both healthy/gingivitis and periodontitis tissues. Nevertheless, other factors including cytokines themselves and chemokines which modulate T cell cytokine profiles must be monitored to determine the nature of Th1/Th2 responses in periodontal disease.

Cytokines in periodontal disease: where to from here?

Numerous studies have attempted to elucidate the cytokine networks involved in chronic periodontitis, often with conflicting results. A variety of techniques were used to study cells in situ, cells extracted from gingival tissues, peripheral blood mononuclear cells, purified cell populations, and T cell lines and clones. Bacterial components, including sonicates, killed cells, outer membrane components, and purified antigens, have all been used to stimulate cells in vitro, making comparisons of cytokine profiles difficult. As it is likely that different cells are present at different disease stages, the inability to determine disease activity clinically is a major limitation of all these studies. In the context of tissue destruction, cytokines such as IL-1, IL-6 and IL-18 are likely to be important, as are their regulating cytokines IL-10 and IL-11. In terms of the nature of the inflammatory infiltrate, two apparently conflicting hypotheses have emerged: one based on direct observations of human lesions, the other based on animal experimentation and the inability to demonstrate IL-4 mRNA in gingival extracts. In the first of these, Th1 responses are responsible for the stable lesion, while in the second Th2 responses are considered protective. Using Porphyromonas gingivalis specific T cell lines we have shown a tendency for IFN-gamma production rather than LL-I or IL-10 when antigen is presented with peripheral blood mononuclear cells which may contain dendritic cells. It is likely that the nature of the antigen-presenting cell is fundamental in determining the nature of the cytokine profile, which may in turn open up possibilities for new therapeutic modalities.

Cell-surface proteoglycan expression by lymphocytes from peripheral blood and Gingiva in health and periodontal disease

Cell-surface proteoglycans are involved in lymphocyte migration and activation. This study investigated the expression of syndecan-1, syndecan-4, and glypican in peripheral blood lymphocytes and by lymphocytes in variously inflamed periodontal tissues. Gingival specimens from healthy, gingivitis, or chronic periodontitis sites were stained by means of antibodies against B- and T-lymphocytes and also syndecan-1, syndecan-4, and glypican. Syndecan-1 expression by peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) from healthy, gingivitis, and chronic periodontitis subjects was assessed by flow cytometry. Syndecan-1 was expressed by B-cells/plasma cells but not T-cells in both gingivitis and chronic periodontitis lesions, Both B-cells/plasma cells and T-cells in gingivitis and chronic periodontitis expressed syndecan-4. Glypican was expressed only by macrophages. Stimulation of PBMC with mitogens and growth factors modulated syndecan-1 expression in both the T- and B-cells. Thus, cell-surface proteoglycan expression by lymphocytes in periodontal inflammation is cell-type-specific and may be modulated by inflammation.

Ross River virus transmission, infection, and disease: a cross-disciplinary review

Ross River virus (RRV) is a fascinating, important arbovirus that is endemic and enzootic in Australia and Papua New Guinea and was epidemic in the South Pacific in 1979 and 1980. Infection with RRV may cause disease in humans, typically presenting as peripheral polyarthralgia or arthritis, sometimes with fever and rash. RRV disease notificatïons in Australia average 5,000 per year. The first well-described outbreak occurred in 1928. During World War II there were more outbreaks, and the name epidemic polyarthritis was applied. During a 1956 outbreak, epidemic polyarthritis was linked serologically to a group A arbovirus (Alphavirus). The virus was subsequently isolated from Aedes vigilax mosquitoes in 1963 and then from epidemic polyarthritis patients. We review the literature on the evolutionary biology of RRV, immune response to infection, pathogenesis, serologic diagnosis, disease manifestations, the extraordinary variety of vertebrate hosts, mosquito vectors, and transmission cycles, antibody prevalence, epidemiology of asymptomatic and symptomatic human infection, infection risks, and public health impact. RRV arthritis is due to joint infection, and treatment is currently based on empirical anti-inflammatory regimens. Further research on pathogenesis may improve understanding of the natural history of this disease and lead to new treatment strategies. The burden of morbidity is considerable, and the virus could spread to other countries. To justify and design preventive programs, we need accurate data on economic costs and better understanding of transmission and behavioral and environmental risks.

Long-term risk stratification for survivors of acute coronary syndromes - Results from the long-term intervention with pravastatin in ischemic disease (LIPID) study

OBJECTIVES We developed a prognostic strategy for quantifying the long-term risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) events in survivors of acute coronary syndromes (ACS). BACKGROUND Strategies for quantifying long-term risk of CHD events have generally been confined to primary prevention settings. The Long-term Intervention with Pravastatin in Ischemic Disease (LIPID) study, which demonstrated that pravastatin reduces CHD events in ACS survivors with a broad range of cholesterol levels, enabled assessment of long-term prognosis in a secondary prevention setting. METHODS Based on outcomes in 8,557 patients in the LIPID study, a multivariate risk factor model was developed for prediction of CHD death or nonfatal myocardial infarction. Prognostic indexes were developed based on the model, and low-, medium-, high- and very high-risk groups were defined by categorizing the prognostic indexes. RESULTS In addition to pravastatin treatment, the independently significant risk factors included: total and high density lipoprotein cholesterol, age, gender, smoking status, qualifying ACS, prior coronary revascularization, diabetes mellitus, hypertension and prior stroke. Pravastatin reduced coronary event rates in each risk level, and the relative risk reduction did not vary significantly between risk levels. The predicted five-year coronary event rates ranged from 5% to 19% for those assigned pravastatin and from 6.4% to 23.6% fur those assigned placebo. CONCLUSIONS Long-term prognosis of ACS survivors varied substantially according to conventional risk factor profile. Pravastatin reduced coronary risk within all risk levels; however, absolute risk remained high in treated patients with unfavorable profiles. Our risk stratification strategy enables identification of ACS survivors who remain at very high risk despite statin therapy. CT Am Coil Cardiol 2001;38:56-63) (C) 2001 by the American College of Cardiology.

Opportunities for the control of coronary heart disease in Australia

Objective: To estimate the number of coronary events that could be prevented in Australia each year by the use of preventive and therapeutic strategies targeted to subgroups of the population based on their levels of risk and need. Methods: Estimates of risk reduction from the published literature, prevalence estimates of elevated risk factor levels from the 1995 National Health Survey and treatment levels from the Australian collaborating centres in the World Health Organization's MONICA Project were used to calculate numbers of coronary events preventable among men and women aged 35-79 years in Australia. Results: Approximately 14,000 coronary events could be avoided each year if the mean level of cholesterol in the population was reduced by 0.5 mmol/L, smoking prevalence was halved and prevalence of physical inactivity was reduced to 25%. This represents a reduction in coronary events of about 40%. Even with less optimistic targets, a reduction of 20% could be attained, while the achievement of some internationally recommended targets could lead to almost 50% reduction. In the short term, aggressive medical treatment of people with elevated levels of risk factors and established coronary disease offers the greatest opportunity for reducing coronary events. Conclusion: A comprehensive approach to reduce levels of behavioural and biological risk factors and improve the use of effective treatment could lead to a large reduction in coronary event rates. In the long term, primary prevention - especially to reduce smoking, lower cholesterol levels and increase exercise - has the potential to reduce the population levels of risk and hence contain the national cost of coronary disease.