Screening for leprosy in immigrants: A decision analysis model

Almost all leprosy cases reported in industrialized countries occur amongst immigrants or refugees from developing countries where leprosy continues to be an important health issue. Screening for leprosy is an important question for governments in countries with immigration and refugee programmes. A decision analysis framework is used to evaluate leprosy screening. The analysis uses a set of criteria and parameters regarding leprosy screening, and available data to estimate the number of cases which would be detected by a leprosy screening programme of immigrants from countries with different leprosy prevalences, compared with a policy of waiting for immigrants who develop symptomatic clinical diseases to present for health care. In a cohort of 100,000 immigrants from high leprosy prevalence regions (3.6/10,000), screening would detect 32 of the 42 cases which would arise in the destination country over the 14 years after migration; from medium prevalence areas (0.7/10,000) 6.3 of the total 8.1 cases would be detected, and from low prevalence regions (0.2/10,600) 1.8 of 2.3 cases. Using Australian data, the migrant mix would produce 74 leprosy cases from 10 years intake; screening would detect 54, and 19 would be diagnosed subsequently after migration. Screening would only produce significant case-yield amongst immigrants from regions or social groups with high leprosy prevalence. Since the number of immigrants to Australia from countries of higher endemnicity is not large routine leprosy screening would have a small impact on case incidence.

A model of seller holdout

We model a buyer who wishes to combine objects owned by two separate sellers in order to realize higher value. Sellers are able to avoid entering into negotiations with the buyer, so that the order in which they negotiate is endogenous. Holdout occurs if at least one of the sellers is not present in the first round of negotiations. We demonstrate that complementarity of the buyer's technology is a necessary condition for equilibrium holdout. Moreover, a rise in complementarity leads to an increased likelihood of holdout, and an increased efficiency loss. Applications include patents, the land assembly problem, and mergers.

Equine laminitis: loss of hemidesmosomes in hoof secondary epidermal lamellae correlates to dose in an oligofructose induction model: an ultrastructural study

Reasons for performing study: Light microscopical studies show that the key lesion of laminitis is separation at the hoof lamellar dermal-epidermal interface. More precise knowledge of the damage occurring in the lamellar basement membrane zone may result if laminitis affected tissue is examined with the transmission electron microscope. This could lead to better understanding of the pathogenesis of lesions and the means of treatment or prevention. Objectives: To investigate the ultrastructure of acute laminitis as disease of greater severity is induced by increasing oligofructose (OF) dosage. Methods: Three pairs of normal horses, dosed with OF at 7.5, 10 and 12.5 g/kg bwt via nasogastric intubation, developed laminitis 48 h later. Following euthanasia, their forefeet were processed for transmission electron microscopy. Lamellar basal cell hemidesmosome (HD) numbers and the distance between the basal cell plasmalemma and the lamina densa of the basement membrane were estimated and compared to control tissue. Results: Increasing OF dosage caused greater HD loss and more severe laminitis. The characteristic separation of the basement membrane, cytoskeleton failure and rounded basal cell nuclei results from combined HD dysassembly and anchoring filament failure. Conclusions: Without properly assembled HDs, dysadhesion between the lamina densa of the basement membrane (BM) and epidermal basal cells occurs, emphasising the fundamental importance of HDs in maintaining attachment at the lamellar interface. Medical conditions that trigger lamellar matrix metalloproteinase (MMP) activation and/or compromise entry of glucose into lamellar basal cells appear to promote loss and failure of HDs and, therefore, laminitis development. Potential relevance: A correlation between lameness severity and escalating loss of lamellar HDs now exists. Therapy aimed at protecting the lamellar environment from haematogenous delivery of MMP activators or from glucose deprivation may control laminitis development.

A cyclic peptide, C5a receptor antagonist analogue confers increased potency in a model of inflammatory bowel disease in rats

No abstract

Integrability and exact solution of an electronic model with long range interactions

We present an electronic model with long range interactions. Through the quantum inverse scattering method, integrability of the model is established using a one-parameter family of typical irreducible representations of gl(211). The eigenvalues of the conserved operators are derived in terms of the Bethe ansatz, from which the energy eigenvalues of the Hamiltonian are obtained.

Investment prioritization based on broadscale spatial budgeting to meet downstream targets for suspended sediment loads

On the basis of a spatially distributed sediment budget across a large basin, costs of achieving certain sediment reduction targets in rivers were estimated. A range of investment prioritization scenarios were tested to identify the most cost-effective strategy to control suspended sediment loads. The scenarios were based on successively introducing more information from the sediment budget. The relationship between spatial heterogeneity of contributing sediment sources on cost effectiveness of prioritization was investigated. Cost effectiveness was shown to increase with sequential introduction of sediment budget terms. The solution which most decreased cost was achieved by including spatial information linking sediment sources to the downstream target location. This solution produced cost curves similar to those derived using a genetic algorithm formulation. Appropriate investment prioritization can offer large cost savings because the magnitude of the costs can vary by several times depending on what type of erosion source or sediment delivery mechanism is targeted. Target settings which only consider the erosion source rates can potentially result in spending more money than random management intervention for achieving downstream targets. Coherent spatial patterns of contributing sediment emerge from the budget model and its many inputs. The heterogeneity in these patterns can be summarized in a succinct form. This summary was shown to be consistent with the cost difference between local and regional prioritization for three of four test catchments. To explain the effect for the fourth catchment, the detail of the individual sediment sources needed to be taken into account.

Characterization of pore wall heterogeneity in nanoporous carbons using adsorption: the slit pore model revisited

In this paper, we propose a new nonlocal density functional theory characterization procedure, the finite wall thickness model, for nanoporous carbons, whereby heterogeneity of pore size and pore walls in the carbon is probed simultaneously. We determine the pore size distributions and pore wall thickness distributions of several commercial activated carbons and coal chars, with good correspondence with X-ray diffraction. It is shown that the conventional infinite wall thickness approach overestimates the pore size slightly. Pore-pore correlation has been shown to have a negligible effect on prediction of pore size and pore wall thickness distributions for small molecules such as argon used in characterization. By utilizing the structural parameters (pore size and pore wall thickness distribution) in the generalized adsorption isotherm (GAI) we are able to predict adsorption uptake of supercritical gases in BPL and Norit RI Extra carbons, in excellent agreement with experimental adsorption uptake data up to 60 MPa. The method offers a useful technique for probing features of the solid skeleton, hitherto studied by crystallographic methods.

Bayesian analysis of the error correction model

This paper presents a method for estimating the posterior probability density of the cointegrating rank of a multivariate error correction model. A second contribution is the careful elicitation of the prior for the cointegrating vectors derived from a prior on the cointegrating space. This prior obtains naturally from treating the cointegrating space as the parameter of interest in inference and overcomes problems previously encountered in Bayesian cointegration analysis. Using this new prior and Laplace approximation, an estimator for the posterior probability of the rank is given. The approach performs well compared with information criteria in Monte Carlo experiments. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Matching occupation and self: Does matching theory adequately model children's thinking?

The present exploratory-descriptive cross-national study focused on the career development of 11- to 14-yr.-old children, in particular whether they can match their personal characteristics with their occupational aspirations. Further, the study explored whether their matching may be explained in terms of a fit between person and environment using Holland's theory as an example. Participants included 511 South African and 372 Australian children. Findings relate to two items of the Revised Career Awareness Survey that require children to relate personal-social knowledge to their favorite occupation. Data were analyzed in three stages using descriptive statistics, i.e., mean scores, frequencies, and percentage agreement. The study indicated that children perceived their personal characteristics to be related to their occupational aspirations. However, how this matching takes place is not adequately accounted for in terms of a career theory such as that of Holland.

Virtual models of the HLA class I antigen processing pathway

Antigen recognition by cytotoxic CD8 T cells is dependent upon a number of critical steps in MHC class I antigen processing including proteosomal cleavage, TAP transport into the endoplasmic reticulum, and MHC class 1 binding. Based on extensive experimental data relating to each of these steps there is now the capacity to model individual antigen processing steps with a high degree of accuracy. This paper demonstrates the potential to bring together models of individual antigen processing steps, for example proteosome cleavage, TAP transport, and MHC binding, to build highly informative models of functional pathways. In particular, we demonstrate how an artificial neural network model of TAP transport was used to mine a HLA-binding database so as to identify H LA-binding peptides transported by TAP. This integrated model of antigen processing provided the unique insight that HLA class I alleles apparently constitute two separate classes: those that are TAP-efficient for peptide loading (HLA-B27, -A3, and -A24) and those that are TAP-inefficient (HLA-A2, -B7, and -B8). Hence, using this integrated model we were able to generate novel hypotheses regarding antigen processing, and these hypotheses are now capable of being tested experimentally. This model confirms the feasibility of constructing a virtual immune system, whereby each additional step in antigen processing is incorporated into a single modular model. Accurate models of antigen processing have implications for the study of basic immunology as well as for the design of peptide-based vaccines and other immunotherapies. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.