An aggregate sales model for consumer durables incorporating a time-varying mean replacement age

Forecasting category or industry sales is a vital component of a company's planning and control activities. Sales for most mature durable product categories are dominated by replacement purchases. Previous sales models which explicitly incorporate a component of sales due to replacement assume there is an age distribution for replacements of existing units which remains constant over time. However, there is evidence that changes in factors such as product reliability/durability, price, repair costs, scrapping values, styling and economic conditions will result in changes in the mean replacement age of units. This paper develops a model for such time-varying replacement behaviour and empirically tests it in the Australian automotive industry. Both longitudinal census data and the empirical analysis of the replacement sales model confirm that there has been a substantial increase in the average aggregate replacement age for motor vehicles over the past 20 years. Further, much of this variation could be explained by real price increases and a linear temporal trend. Consequently, the time-varying model significantly outperformed previous models both in terms of fitting and forecasting the sales data. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

RelB nuclear translocation mediated by C-terminal activator reigons of Epstein Barr virus-encoded latent membrane protein 1 and its effect on antigen-presenting function in B cells

Previous studies have shown that Epstein-Barr virus-encoded latent membrane protein 1 (LMP1) is uniquely able to up-regulate the expression of the peptide transporters (referred to as TAP-1 and TAP-2) and major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class I in Burkitt's lymphoma (BL) cell lines. This up-regulation is often accompanied by a restoration of antigen-presenting function as measured by the ability of these cells to present endogenously expressed viral antigen to cytotoxic T lymphocytes. Here we show that the expression of LMP1 resulted in up-regulation and nuclear translocation of RelB that were coincident with increased expression of MHC class I in BL cells. Deletion of the C-terminal activator regions (CTARs) of LMP1 significantly impaired the abilities of LMP1 to translocate RelB into the nucleus and to up-regulate the expression of antigen-processing genes. Further analysis with single-point mutations within the CTARs confirmed that the residues critical for NF-kappaB activation directly contribute to antigen-processing function regulation in BL cells. This LMP1-mediated effect was blocked following expression of either dominant negative IkappaBalpha S32/36A, an NF-kappaB inhibitor, or antisense RelB. These observations indicate that upregulation of antigen-presenting function in B cells mediated by LMP1 is signaled through the NF-kappaB subunit RelB. The data provide a mechanism by which LMP1 modulates immunogenicity of Epstein-Barr virus-infected normal and malignant cells.

A zero-augmented gamma mixed model for longitudinal data with many zeros

In many occupational safety interventions, the objective is to reduce the injury incidence as well as the mean claims cost once injury has occurred. The claims cost data within a period typically contain a large proportion of zero observations (no claim). The distribution thus comprises a point mass at 0 mixed with a non-degenerate parametric component. Essentially, the likelihood function can be factorized into two orthogonal components. These two components relate respectively to the effect of covariates on the incidence of claims and the magnitude of claims, given that claims are made. Furthermore, the longitudinal nature of the intervention inherently imposes some correlation among the observations. This paper introduces a zero-augmented gamma random effects model for analysing longitudinal data with many zeros. Adopting the generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) approach reduces the original problem to the fitting of two independent GLMMs. The method is applied to evaluate the effectiveness of a workplace risk assessment teams program, trialled within the cleaning services of a Western Australian public hospital.

Analysis of the microbial community structure and function of a laboratory scale enhanced biological phosphorus removal reactor

A laboratory scale sequencing batch reactor (SBR) operating for enhanced biological phosphorus removal (EBPR) and fed with a mixture of volatile fatty acids (VFAs) showed stable and efficient EBPR capacity over a four-year-period. Phosphorus (P), poly-beta-hydroxyalkanoate (PHA) and glycogen cycling consistent with classical anaerobic/aerobic EBPR were demonstrated with the order of anaerobic VFA uptake being propionate, acetate then butyrate. The SBR was operated without pH control and 63.67+/-13.86 mg P l(-1) was released anaerobically. The P% of the sludge fluctuated between 6% and 10% over the operating period (average of 8.04+/-1.31%). Four main morphological types of floc-forming bacteria were observed in the sludge during one year of in-tensive microscopic observation. Two of them were mainly responsible for anaerobic/aerobic P and PHA transformations. Fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) and post-FISH chemical staining for intracellular polyphosphate and PHA were used to determine that 'Candidatus Accumulibacter phosphatis' was the most abundant polyphosphate accumulating organism (PAO), forming large clusters of coccobacilli (1.0-1.5 mum) and comprising 53% of the sludge bacteria. Also by these methods, large coccobacillus-shaped gammaproteobacteria (2.5-3.5 mum) from a recently described novel cluster were glycogen-accumulating organisms (GAOs) comprising 13% of the bacteria. Tetrad-forming organisms (TFOs) consistent with the 'G bacterium' morphotype were alphaproteobacteria , but not Amaricoccus spp., and comprised 25% of all bacteria. According to chemical staining, TFOs were occasionally able to store PHA anaerobically and utilize it aerobically.

Dynamics of a strongly driven two-component Bose-Einstein condensate

We consider a two-component Bose-Einstein condensate in two spatially localized modes of a double-well potential, with periodic modulation of the tunnel coupling between the two modes. We treat the driven quantum field using a two-mode expansion and define the quantum dynamics in terms of the Floquet Operator for the time periodic Hamiltonian of the system. It has been shown that the corresponding semiclassical mean-field dynamics can exhibit regions of regular and chaotic motion. We show here that the quantum dynamics can exhibit dynamical tunneling between regions of regular motion, centered on fixed points (resonances) of the semiclassical dynamics.

Existence of a semicontinuous or continuous utility function: a unified approach and an elementary proof

In this paper, we present a new unified approach and an elementary proof of a very general theorem on the existence of a semicontinuous or continuous utility function representing a preference relation. A simple and interesting new proof of the famous Debreu Gap Lemma is given. In addition, we prove a new Gap Lemma for the rational numbers and derive some consequences. We also prove a theorem which characterizes the existence of upper semicontinuous utility functions on a preordered topological space which need not be second countable. This is a generalization of the classical theorem of Rader which only gives sufficient conditions for the existence of an upper semicontinuous utility function for second countable topological spaces. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

The non-existence of a utility function and the structure of non-representable preference relations

In this paper we investigate the structure of non-representable preference relations. While there is a vast literature on different kinds of preference relations that can be represented by a real-valued utility function, very little is known or understood about preference relations that cannot be represented by a real-valued utility function. There has been no systematic analysis of the non-representation problem. In this paper we give a complete description of non-representable preference relations which are total preorders or chains. We introduce and study the properties of four classes of non-representable chains: long chains, planar chains, Aronszajn-like chains and Souslin chains. In the main theorem of the paper we prove that a chain is non-representable if and only it is a long chain, a planar chain, an Aronszajn-like chain or a Souslin chain. (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

On the importance function in splitting simulation

The splitting method is a simulation technique for the estimation of very small probabilities. In this technique, the sample paths are split into multiple copies, at various stages in the simulation. Of vital importance to the efficiency of the method is the Importance Function (IF). This function governs the placement of the thresholds or surfaces at which the paths are split. We derive a characterisation of the optimal IF and show that for multi-dimensional models the natural choice for the IF is usually not optimal. We also show how nearly optimal splitting surfaces can be derived or simulated using reverse time analysis. Our numerical experiments illustrate that by using the optimal IF, one can obtain a significant improvement in simulation efficiency.

Investigation of electrical conductivity as a function of dopant-ion radius in the systems Zr0.75Ce0.08M0.17O1.92 (M=Nd, Sm, Gd, Dy, Ho, Y, Er, Yb, Sc)

Electrical conductivity versus dopant ionic radius studies in zirconia- and ceria-based, solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) electrolyte systems have shown that oxygen-ion conductivity is highest when the host and dopant ions are similar in size [J. Am. Ceram. Soc. 48 (1965) 286; Solid State Ionics 37 (1989) 67; Solid State Ionics 5 (1981) 547]. Under these conditions, it is thought that the conduction paths within the crystal lattice become less distorted [Solid State Ionics 8 (1983) 201]. In this study, binary ZrO2-M2O3 unit cells were expanded, via the partial substitution of Ce+4 for Zr+4 into the lattice, in an attempt to identify new, ternary, zirconia/ceria-based electrolyte systems with enhanced electrical conductivity. The compositions Zr0.75Ce0.08M0.17O1.92 (M = Nd, Sm, Gd, Dy, Ho, Y, Yb, Sc) were prepared using traditional solid state techniques. Bulk phase characterisation and precise lattice parameter measurements were performed with X-ray diffraction techniques. Four-probe DC conductivity measurements between 400 and 900 degreesC showed that the dopant-ion radius influenced electrical conductivity. The conductivity versus dopant-ion radius trends previously observed in zirconia-based, binary systems are clearly apparent in the ternary systems investigated in this study. The addition of ceria was found to have a negative influence on the electrical conductivity over the temperature range 400-900 degreesC. It is suggested that distortion of the oxygen-ion conduction path by the presence of the larger M+3 and Ce+4 species (relative to Zr+4) is the reason for the decreasing electrical conductivity as a function of increasing dopant size and ceria addition, respectively. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Impact of malocclusion and orthognathic reconstruction surgery on resonance and articulatory function: an examination of variability in five cases

Articulatory patterns and nasal resonance were assessed before and 6 months after orthognathic reconstruction surgery in five patients with dentofacial deformities. Perceptual and physiological assessments showed disorders of nasality and articulatory function preoperatively, two patients being hyponasal, and one hypernasal. Four patients had mild articulatory deficits, and four had reduced maximal lip or tongue pressures. Operation resulted in different patterns of change. Nasality deteriorated in three patients and articulatory precision and intelligibility improved in only one patient and showed no change in the other four. Operation improved interlabial pressures in three patients, while its impact on tongue pressures varied, being improved in one case, deteriorating in one, and remaining unchanged in the other three. The variability in the results highlights the need for routine assessment of speech and resonance before and after orthognathic reconstruction. (C) 2002 The British Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

The role of Doppler left ventricular filling indexes and Doppler tissue echocardiography in the assessment of cardiac involvement in hereditary hemochromatosis

Although cardiac dysfunction in hereditary hemochromatosis (HHC) can be evaluated by conventional echocardiography, findings are often not specific. To test the hypothesis that the assessment of (1) conventional Doppler left ventricular filling indexes and (2) intrinsic elastic properties of the myocardium by Doppler tissue echocardiography can both enhance the accuracy of echocardiographic diagnosis of cardiac involvement in HHC, a group of 18 patients with HHC (mean age 50+/-7 years) and 22 age-matched healthy subjects were studied. The following indexes were characteristic for HHC: (1) the duration of atrial reversal measured from pulmonary venous flow (ms) was longer(118+/-20 vs 90+/-16; P

Determinants of tissue Doppler measures of regional diastolic function during dobutamine stress echocardiography

Background Diastolic dysfunction induced by ischemia may alter transmitral blood flow, but this reflects global ventricular function, and pseudonormalization may occur with increased preload. Tissue Doppler may assess regional diastolic function and is relatively load-independent, but limited data exist regarding its application to stress testing. We sought to examine the stress response of regional diastolic parameters to dobutomine echocardiography (DbE). Methods Sixty-three patients underwent study with DbE: 20 with low probability of coronary artery disease (CAD) and 43 with CAD who underwent angiography. A standard DbE protocol was used, and segments were categorized as ischemic, scar, or normal. Color tissue Doppler was acquired at baseline and peak stress, and waveforms in the basal and mid segments were used to measure early filling (Em), late filling (Am), and E deceleration time. Significant CAD was defined by stenoses >50% vessel diameter. Results Diastolic parameters had limited feasibility because of merging of Em and Am waves at high heart rates and limited reproducibility. Nonetheless, compared with normal segments, segments subtended with significant stenoses showed a lower Em velocity at rest (6.2 +/- 2.6 cm/s vs 4.8 +/- 2.2 cm/s, P < .0001) and peak (7.5 +/- 4.2 cm/s vs 5.1 +/- 3.6 cm/s, P < .0001), Abnormal segments also showed a shorter E deceleration time (51 +/- 27 ms vs 41 +/- 27 ms, P = .0001) at base and peak. No changes were documented in Am. The same pattern was seen with segments identified as ischemic with wall motion score. However, in the absence of ischemia, segments of patients with left ventricular hypertrophy showed a lower Em velocity, with blunted Em responses to stress. Conclusion Regional diastolic function is sensitive to ischemia. However, a number of practical limitations limit the applicability of diastolic parameters for the quantification of stress echocardiography.