An aggregate sales model for consumer durables incorporating a time-varying mean replacement age

Forecasting category or industry sales is a vital component of a company's planning and control activities. Sales for most mature durable product categories are dominated by replacement purchases. Previous sales models which explicitly incorporate a component of sales due to replacement assume there is an age distribution for replacements of existing units which remains constant over time. However, there is evidence that changes in factors such as product reliability/durability, price, repair costs, scrapping values, styling and economic conditions will result in changes in the mean replacement age of units. This paper develops a model for such time-varying replacement behaviour and empirically tests it in the Australian automotive industry. Both longitudinal census data and the empirical analysis of the replacement sales model confirm that there has been a substantial increase in the average aggregate replacement age for motor vehicles over the past 20 years. Further, much of this variation could be explained by real price increases and a linear temporal trend. Consequently, the time-varying model significantly outperformed previous models both in terms of fitting and forecasting the sales data. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A(2)((2)) parafermions: a new conformal field theory

A new parafermionic algebra associated with the homogeneous space A(2)((2))/U(1) and its corresponding Z-algebra have been recently proposed. In this paper, we give a free boson representation of the A(2)((2)) parafermion algebra in terms of seven free fields. Free field realizations of the parafermionic energy-momentum tensor and screening currents are also obtained. A new algebraic structure is discovered, which contains a W-algebra type primary field with spin two. (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

Free field and parafermionic realizations of twisted su(3)(k)((2)) current algebra

Free field and twisted parafermionic representations of twisted su(3)(k)((2)) current algebra are obtained. The corresponding twisted Sugawara energy-momentum tensor is given in terms of three (beta, gamma) pairs and two scalar fields and also in terms of twisted parafermionic currents and one scalar field. Two screening currents of the first kind are presented in terms of the free fields.

Energy cost of activity assessed by indirect calorimetry and a (CO2)-C-13 breath test

Purpose: The aim of this study was to assess the accuracy of a (CO2)-C-13 breath test for the prediction of short-duration energy expenditure. Methods: Eight healthy volunteers walked at 1.5 km.h(-1) for 60 min followed by 60-min recovery. During this time, the energy cost of physical activity was measured via respiratory calorimetry and a C-13 bicarbonate breath test. A further eight subjects were tested using the same two methods during a 60-min cycle at 0.5 kp. 30 ipm followed by a 60-min recovery. The rate of appearance of (CO2)-C-13, (RaCO2) was measured and the mean ratio, (V) over dot CO2/RaCO2 was used to calculate energy expenditure using the isotopic approach. Results: As would be expected, there was a significant difference in the energy cost of walking and cycling using both methods (P < 0.05). However. no significant differences were observed between respiratory calorimetry and the isotope method for measurement of energy expenditure while walking or cycling. Conclusions: These data suggest that the C-13 breath test is a valid method that can be used to measure the energy cost of short duration physical activity in a field setting.

Field quantization, photons and non-Hermitean modes

Field quantization in unstable optical systems is treated by expanding the vector potential in terms of non-Hermitean (Fox-Li) modes. We define non-Hermitean modes and their adjoints in both the cavity and external regions and make use of the important bi-orthogonality relationships that exist within each mode set. We employ a standard canonical quantization procedure involving the introduction of generalized coordinates and momenta for the electromagnetic (EM) field. Three-dimensional systems are treated, making use of the paraxial and monochromaticity approximations for the cavity non-Hermitean modes. We show that the quantum EM field is equivalent to a set of quantum harmonic oscillators (QHOs), associated with either the cavity or the external region non-Hermitean modes, and thus confirming the validity of the photon model in unstable optical systems. Unlike in the conventional (Hermitean mode) case, the annihilation and creation operators we define for each QHO are not Hermitean adjoints. It is shown that the quantum Hamiltonian for the EM field is the sum of non-commuting cavity and external region contributions, each of which can be expressed as a sum of independent QHO Hamiltonians for each non-Hermitean mode, except that the external field Hamiltonian also includes a coupling term responsible for external non-Hermitean mode photon exchange processes. The non-commutativity of certain cavity and external region annihilation and creation operators is associated with cavity energy gain and loss processes, and may be described in terms of surface integrals involving cavity and external region non-Hermitean mode functions on the cavity-external region boundary. Using the essential states approach and the rotating wave approximation, our results are applied to the spontaneous decay of a two-level atom inside an unstable cavity. We find that atomic transitions leading to cavity non-Hermitean mode photon absorption are associated with a different coupling constant to that for transitions leading to photon emission, a feature consequent on the use of non-Hermitean mode functions. We show that under certain conditions the spontaneous decay rate is enhanced by the Petermann factor.

Electric-field-induced Mott insulating states in organic field-effect transistors

We consider the possibility that the electrons injected into organic field-effect transistors are strongly correlated. A single layer of acenes can be modeled by a Hubbard Hamiltonian similar to that used for the κ-(BEDT-TTF)2X family of organic superconductors. The injected electrons do not necessarily undergo a transition to a Mott insulator state as they would in bulk crystals when the system is half-filled. We calculate the fillings needed for obtaining insulating states in the framework of the slave-boson theory and in the limit of large Hubbard repulsion U. We also suggest that these Mott states are unstable above some critical interlayer coupling or long-range Coulomb interaction.

Separating the quantum sidebands of an optical field

In this paper we investigate the quantum optics of a double-ended optical cavity. We show that an impedance matched, far-detuned cavity can be used to separate the positive and negative sidebands of a field. The 'missing' sideband will be replaced by the equivalent sideband incident on the cavity from the other direction. This technique can be used to convert the quantum correlations between the sidebands of the incident fields into quantum correlations between the two spatially distinct output fields. We show that, under certain experimental conditions, the fields emerging from the cavity will display entanglement.

The compositional inverse of a class of permutation polynomials over a finite field

A new class of bilinear permutation polynomials was recently identified. In this note we determine the class of permutation polynomials which represents the functional inverse of the bilinear class.

Magnetic-field-induced superconductivity in layered organic molecular crystals with localized magnetic moments

l-(BETS)2FeCl4 undergoes transitions from an antiferromagnetic insulator to a metal and then to a superconductor as a magnetic field is increased. We use a Hubbard-Kondo model to clarify the role of the Fe31 magnetic ions in these phase transitions. In the high-field regime, the magnetic field acting on the electron spins is compensated by the exchange field He due to the magnetic ions. We show how He can be extracted from the observed splitting of the Shubnikov–de Haas frequencies. We predict the field range for field-induced superconductivity in other materials.

Mapping glider habitat in dry eucalypt forests for Montreal Process indicator 1.1: Fragmentation of forest types

Accurate habitat mapping is critical to landscape ecological studies such as required for developing and testing Montreal Process indicator 1.1e, fragmentation of forest types. This task poses a major challenge to remote sensing, especially in mixedspecies, variable-age forests such as dry eucalypt forests of subtropical eastern Australia. In this paper, we apply an innovative approach that uses a small section of one-metre resolution airborne data to calibrate a moderate spatial resolution model (30 m resolution; scale 1:50 000) based on Landsat Thematic Mapper data to estimate canopy structural properties in St Marys State Forest, near Maryborough, south-eastern Queensland. The approach applies an image-processing model that assumes each image pixel is significantly larger than individual tree crowns and gaps to estimate crown-cover percentage, stem density and mean crown diameter. These parameters were classified into three discrete habitat classes to match the ecology of four exudivorous arboreal species (yellowbellied glider Petaurus australis, sugar glider P. breviceps, squirrel glider P. norfolcensis , and feathertail glider Acrobates pygmaeus), and one folivorous arboreal marsupial, the greater glider Petauroides volans. These species were targeted due to the known ecological preference for old trees with hollows, and differences in their home range requirements. The overall mapping accuracy, visually assessed against transects (n = 93) interpreted from a digital orthophoto and validated in the field, was 79% (KHAT statistic = 0.72). The KHAT statistic serves as an indicator of the extent that the percentage correct values of the error matrix are due to ‘true’ agreement verses ‘chance’ agreement. This means that we are able to reliably report on the effect of habitat loss on target species, especially those with a large home range size (e.g. yellow-bellied glider). However, the classified habitat map failed to accurately capture the spatial patterning (e.g. patch size and shape) of stands with a trace or sub-dominance of senescent trees. This outcome makes the reporting of the effects of habitat fragmentation more problematic, especially for species with a small home range size (e.g. feathertail glider). With further model refinement and validation, however, this moderateresolution approach offers an important, cost eff e c t i v e advancement in mapping the age of dry eucalypt forests in the region.

Micro-mechanical approximation to the stress field around an inclined fiber of FRCC

Matrix spalling or crushing is one of the important mechanisms of fiber-matrix interaction of fiber reinforced cementitious composites (FRCC). The fiber pullout mechanisms have been extensively studied for an aligned fiber but matrix failure is rarely investigated since it is thought not to be a major affect. However, for an inclined fiber, the matrix failure should not be neglected. Due to the complex process of matrix spalling, experimental investigation and analytical study of this mechanism are rarely found in literature. In this paper, it is assumed that the load transfer is concentrated within the short length of the inclined fiber from the exit point towards anchored end and follows the exponential law. The Mindlin formulation is employed to calculate the 3D stress field. The simulation gives much information about this field. The 3D approximation of the stress state around an inclined fiber helps to qualitatively understand the mechanism of matrix failure. Finally, a spalling criterion is proposed by which matrix spalling occurs only when the stress in a certain volume, rather than the stress at a small point, exceeds the material strength. This implies some local stress redistribution after first yield. The stress redistribution results in more energy input and higher load bearing capacity of the matrix. In accordance with this hypothesis, the evolution of matrix spalling is demonstrated. The accurate prediction of matrix spalling needs the careful determination of the parameters in this model. This is the work of further study. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Discrete teleportation protocol of continuum spectra field states

A discrete protocol for teleportation of superpositions of coherent states of optical-cavity fields is presented. Displacement and parity operators are unconventionally used in Bell-like measurement for field states.

Analysis of the wind field and heat budget in an alpine lake basin during summertime fair weather conditions

Observational data collected in the Lake Tekapo hydro catchment of the Southern Alps in New Zealand are used to analyse the wind and temperature fields in the alpine lake basin during summertime fair weather conditions. Measurements from surface stations, pilot balloon and tethersonde soundings, Doppler sodar and an instrumented light aircraft provide evidence of multi-scale interacting wind systems, ranging from microscale slope winds to mesoscale coast-to-basin flows. Thermal forcing of the winds occurred due to differential heating as a consequence of orography and heterogeneous surface features, which is quantified by heat budget and pressure field analysis. The daytime vertical temperature structure was characterised by distinct layering. Features of particular interest are the formation of thermal internal boundary layers due to the lake-land discontinuity and the development of elevated mixed layers. The latter were generated by advective heating from the basin and valley sidewalls by slope winds and by a superimposed valley wind blowing from the basin over Lake Tekapo and up the tributary Godley Valley. Daytime heating in the basin and its tributary valleys caused the development of a strong horizontal temperature gradient between the basin atmosphere and that over the surrounding landscape, and hence the development of a mesoscale heat low over the basin. After noon, air from outside the basin started flowing over mountain saddles into the basin causing cooling in the lowest layers, whereas at ridge top height the horizontal air temperature gradient between inside and outside the basin continued to increase. In the early evening, a more massive intrusion of cold air caused rapid cooling and a transition to a rather uniform slightly stable stratification up to about 2000 m agl. The onset time of this rapid cooling varied about 1-2 h between observation sites and was probably triggered by the decay of up-slope winds inside the basin, which previously countered the intrusion of air over the surrounding ridges. The intrusion of air from outside the basin continued until about mid-night, when a northerly mountain wind from the Godley Valley became dominant. The results illustrate the extreme complexity that can be caused by the operation of thermal forcing processes at a wide range of spatial scales.