Stress correlation function evolution in lattice solid elasto-dynamic models of shear and fracture zones and earthquake prediction

It has been argued that power-law time-to-failure fits for cumulative Benioff strain and an evolution in size-frequency statistics in the lead-up to large earthquakes are evidence that the crust behaves as a Critical Point (CP) system. If so, intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible. However, this hypothesis has not been proven. If the crust does behave as a CP system, stress correlation lengths should grow in the lead-up to large events through the action of small to moderate ruptures and drop sharply once a large event occurs. However this evolution in stress correlation lengths cannot be observed directly. Here we show, using the lattice solid model to describe discontinuous elasto-dynamic systems subjected to shear and compression, that it is for possible correlation lengths to exhibit CP-type evolution. In the case of a granular system subjected to shear, this evolution occurs in the lead-up to the largest event and is accompanied by an increasing rate of moderate-sized events and power-law acceleration of Benioff strain release. In the case of an intact sample system subjected to compression, the evolution occurs only after a mature fracture system has developed. The results support the existence of a physical mechanism for intermediate-term earthquake forecasting and suggest this mechanism is fault-system dependent. This offers an explanation of why accelerating Benioff strain release is not observed prior to all large earthquakes. The results prove the existence of an underlying evolution in discontinuous elasto-dynamic, systems which is capable of providing a basis for forecasting catastrophic failure and earthquakes.

Long-range automaton models of earthquakes: Power-law accelerations, correlation evolution, and mode-switching

We introduce a conceptual model for the in-plane physics of an earthquake fault. The model employs cellular automaton techniques to simulate tectonic loading, earthquake rupture, and strain redistribution. The impact of a hypothetical crustal elastodynamic Green's function is approximated by a long-range strain redistribution law with a r(-p) dependance. We investigate the influence of the effective elastodynamic interaction range upon the dynamical behaviour of the model by conducting experiments with different values of the exponent (p). The results indicate that this model has two distinct, stable modes of behaviour. The first mode produces a characteristic earthquake distribution with moderate to large events preceeded by an interval of time in which the rate of energy release accelerates. A correlation function analysis reveals that accelerating sequences are associated with a systematic, global evolution of strain energy correlations within the system. The second stable mode produces Gutenberg-Richter statistics, with near-linear energy release and no significant global correlation evolution. A model with effectively short-range interactions preferentially displays Gutenberg-Richter behaviour. However, models with long-range interactions appear to switch between the characteristic and GR modes. As the range of elastodynamic interactions is increased, characteristic behaviour begins to dominate GR behaviour. These models demonstrate that evolution of strain energy correlations may occur within systems with a fixed elastodynamic interaction range. Supposing that similar mode-switching dynamical behaviour occurs within earthquake faults then intermediate-term forecasting of large earthquakes may be feasible for some earthquakes but not for others, in alignment with certain empirical seismological observations. Further numerical investigation of dynamical models of this type may lead to advances in earthquake forecasting research and theoretical seismology.

Evolution of additive and nonadditive genetic variance in development time along a cline in Drosophila serrata

Latitudinal clines provide natural systems that may allow the effect of natural selection on the genetic variance to be determined. Ten clinal populations of Drosophila serrata collected from the eastern coast of Australia were used to examine clinal patterns in the trait mean and genetic variance of the life-history trait egg-to-adult development time. Development time significantly lengthened from tropical areas to temperate areas. The additive genetic variance for development time in each population was not associated with latitude but was associated with the population mean development time. Additive genetic variance tended to be larger in populations with more extreme development times and appeared to be consistent with allele frequency change. In contrast, the nonadditive genetic variance was not associated with the population mean but was associated with latitude. Levels of nonadditive genetic variance were greatest in the region of the cline where the gradient in the change in mean was greatest, consistent with Barton's (1999) conjecture that the generation of linkage disequilibrium may become an important component of the genetic variance in systems with a spatially varying optimum.

Genetic constraints on the evolution of mate recognition under natural selection

Field populations of Drosophila serrata display reproductive character displacement in cuticular hydrocarbons (CHCs) when sympatric with Drosophila birchii. We have previously shown that the naturally occurring pattern of reproductive character displacement can be experimentally replicated by exposing field allopatric populations of D. serrata to experimental sympatry with D. birchii. Here, we tested whether the repeated evolution of reproductive character displacement in natural and experimental populations was a consequence of genetic constraints on the evolution of CHCs. The genetic variance-covariance (G) matrices for CHCs were determined for populations of D. serrata that had evolved in either the presence or absence of D. birchii under field and experimental conditions. Natural selection on mate recognition under both field and experimental sympatric conditions increased the genetic variance in CHCs consistent with a response to selection based on rare alleles. A close association between G eigenstructure and the eigenstructure of the phenotypic divergence (D) matrix in natural and experimental populations suggested that G matrix eigenstructure may have determined the direction in which reproductive character displacement evolved during the reinforcement of mate recognition.

Exploring the role of market learning capability in competitive strategy

It has been argued that a firm's capacity to learn from its market is a source of both innovation and competitive advantage. However, past research has failed to conceptualize market-focused learning activity as a capability having the potential to contribute to competitive advantage. Prior innovation research has been biased toward technological innovation. However, there is evidence to suggest that both technological and non-technological innovations contribute to competitive advantage reflecting the need for a broader conceptualization of the innovation construct. Past research has also overlooked the critical role of entrepreneurship in the capability building process. Competitive advantage has been predominantly measured in terms of financial indicators of performance. In general, the literature reflects the need for comprehensive measures of organizational innovation and competitive advantage. This paper examines the role of market-focused learning capability in organizational innovation-based competitive strategy. The paper contributes to the strategic marketing theory by developing and refining measures of entrepreneurship, market-focused learning capability, organizational innovation and sustained competitive advantage, testing relationships among these constructs.

Testing the link between the latitudinal gradient in species richness and rates of molecular evolution

Numerous hypotheses have been proposed to explain latitudinal gradients in species richness, but all are subject to ongoing debate. Here we examine Rohde's (1978, 1992) hypothesis, which proposes that climatic conditions at low latitudes lead to elevated rates of speciation. This hypothesis predicts that rates of molecular evolution should increase towards lower latitudes, but this prediction has never been tested. We discuss potential links between rates of molecular evolution and latitudinal diversity gradients, and present the first test of latitudinal variation in rates of molecular evolution. Using 45 phylogenetically independent, latitudinally separated pairs of bird species and higher taxa, we compare rates of evolution of two mitochondrial genes and DNA-DNA hybridization distances. We find no support for an effect of latitude on rate of molecular evolution. This result casts doubt on the generality of a key component of Rohde's hypothesis linking climate and speciation.

Segmenting the market of West Australian senior tourists using an artificial neural network

Measuring perceptions of customers can be a major problem for marketers of tourism and travel services. Much of the problem is to determine which attributes carry most weight in the purchasing decision. Older travellers weigh many travel features before making their travel decisions. This paper presents a descriptive analysis of neural network methodology and provides a research technique that assesses the weighting of different attributes and uses an unsupervised neural network model to describe a consumer-product relationship. The development of this rich class of models was inspired by the neural architecture of the human brain. These models mathematically emulate the neurophysical structure and decision making of the human brain, and, from a statistical perspective, are closely related to generalised linear models. Artificial neural networks or neural networks are, however, nonlinear and do not require the same restrictive assumptions about the relationship between the independent variables and dependent variables. Using neural networks is one way to determine what trade-offs older travellers make as they decide their travel plans. The sample of this study is from a syndicated data source of 200 valid cases from Western Australia. From senior groups, active learner, relaxed family body, careful participants and elementary vacation were identified and discussed. (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.

Life cycle evolution in the Digenea: a new perspective from phylogeny

We use a new molecular phylogeny, developed from small and large subunit ribosomal RNA genes, to explore evolution of the digenean life cycle. Our approach is to map character states on the phylogeny and then use parsimony to infer how the character evolved. We conclude that, plesiomorphically, digenean miracidia hatched from eggs and penetrated gastropod first intermediate hosts externally. Fork-tailed cercariae were produced in rediae and emerged from the snail to be eaten directly by the teleost definitive host. These plesiomorphic characters are seen in extant Bivesiculidae. We infer that external encystment and the use of second intermediate hosts are derived from this behaviour and that second intermediate hosts have been adopted repeatedly. Tetrapod definitive hosts have also been adopted repeatedly. The new phylogeny proposes a basal dichotomy between 'Diplostomida' (Diplostomoidea, Schistosomatoidea and Brachylaimoidea) and 'Plagiorchiida' (all other digeneans). There is no evidence for coevolution between these clades and groups of gastropods. The most primitive life cycles are seen in basal Plagiorchiida. Basal Diplostomida have three-host life cycles and are associated with tetrapods. The blood flukes (Schistosomatoidea) are inferred to have derived their two-host life cycles by abbreviating three-host cycles. Diplostomida have no adult stages in fishes except by life cycle abbreviation. We present and test a radical hypothesis that the blood-fluke cycle is plesiomorphic within the Diplostomida.

Muslims and the Australian labour market, 1980-2001

The unemployment of Muslims in Australia was 28 and 25 per cent compared to the national total of around nine per cent in 1986 and 1996 respectively (Australian Bureau of Statistics). This article conceptually analyses the disadvantaged position of the Muslims in the Australian labour market from 1980 to 2001 within a framework of 'structural racism'. It studies the Muslims from three perspectives: first, a comparative study of the qualifications and unemployment of the Muslim labour force in relation to the dominant population. Secondly, it examines the extent of this disadvantaged position in comparison with other ethnic minorities within an historical context. Finally, the basis of structural racism is explored to demonstrate how the Muslims have become systematically victimized. The analysis concludes that Muslims are significantly disadvantaged in Australia on the basis of their ethnicity and religion.

Microstructural evolution of the Serido Belt, NE-Brazil: the effect of two tectonic events on development of c-axis preferred orientation in quartz

The polyphase evolution of the Serido Belt (NE-Brazil) includes D, crust formation at 2.3-2.1 Ga, D-2 thrust tectonics at 1.9 Ga and crustal reworking by D-3 strike-slip shear zones at 600 Ma. Microstructural investigations within mylonites associated with D-2 and D-3 events were used to constrain the tectono-thermal evolution of the belt. D-2 shear zones commenced at deeper crustal levels and high amphibolite facies conditions (600-650 degreesC) through grain boundary migration, subgrain rotation and operation of quartz Q-prism slip. Continued shearing and exhumation of the terrain forced the re-equilibration of high-T fabrics and the switching of slip systems from (c)-prism to positive and negative (a)-rhombs. During D-3, enhancement of ductility by dissipation of heat that came from syn-D-3 granites developed wide belts of amphibolite facies mylonites. Continued shearing, uplift and cooling of the region induced D-3 shear zones to act in ductile-brittle regimes, marked by fracturing and development of thinner belts of greenschist facies mylonites. During this event, switching from (a)-prism to a basal slip indicates a thermal path from 600 to 350 degreesC. Therefore, microstructures and quartz c-axis fabrics in polydeformed rocks from the Serido Belt preserve the record of two major events, which includes contrasting deformation mechanisms and thermal paths. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cross-border insolvency: Adoption of CLERP 8 as an evolution of Australian insolvency law

In 1997 the United Nations adopted the UNCITRAL Model Law on Cross-Border Insolvency and recommended that member states adopt it as part of domestic legislation. In 2002 Australia, an active participant in UNCITRAL's Working Group on Insolvency Law, announced that the next phase of the Commonwealth Government's Corporate Law Economic Reform Program would be a review of cross-border insolvency law. CLERP 8 seeks feedback on the proposed enactment of the Model Law by a separate Commonwealth statute. This article places such a development within the context of Australian cross-border insolvency law as it has evolved from early English bankruptcy legislation through case law arising from the banking collapses of the late 19th century to the more recent jurisprudence produced by corporate collapses of the late 1980s to early 1990s and current high-profile insolvencies.