An aggregate sales model for consumer durables incorporating a time-varying mean replacement age

Forecasting category or industry sales is a vital component of a company's planning and control activities. Sales for most mature durable product categories are dominated by replacement purchases. Previous sales models which explicitly incorporate a component of sales due to replacement assume there is an age distribution for replacements of existing units which remains constant over time. However, there is evidence that changes in factors such as product reliability/durability, price, repair costs, scrapping values, styling and economic conditions will result in changes in the mean replacement age of units. This paper develops a model for such time-varying replacement behaviour and empirically tests it in the Australian automotive industry. Both longitudinal census data and the empirical analysis of the replacement sales model confirm that there has been a substantial increase in the average aggregate replacement age for motor vehicles over the past 20 years. Further, much of this variation could be explained by real price increases and a linear temporal trend. Consequently, the time-varying model significantly outperformed previous models both in terms of fitting and forecasting the sales data. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Path integrals for continuous-time Markov chains

This note presents a method of evaluating the distribution of a path integral for Markov chains on a countable state space.

A real-time PCR assay for the detection of Neisseria gonorrhoeae by LightCycler

The detection of Neisseria gonorrhoeae by the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) is now recognized as a sensitive and specific method of diagnosing infection by the organism. In this Study 152 urine specimens were examined for N. gonorrhoeae by a real-time PCR method using the LightCycler platform and results were compared to an in-house PCR assay using an ELISA-based detection method. N. gonorrhoeae DNA was detected in 29 (19%) specimens by LightCycler PCR (LC-PCR) and in 31 (20%) specimens by the in house PCR method. The LightCycler assay proved to be specific and 94% sensitive when compared to the in house PCR method. These features combined with the rapid turn-around time for results makes the LC-PCR particularly suitable for the detection of N. gonorrhoeae in a routine clinical laboratory. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

Reasoning about real-time repetitions: terminating and nonterminating

It is common for a real-time system to contain a nonterminating process monitoring an input and controlling an output. Hence, a real-time program development method needs to support nonterminating repetitions. In this paper we develop a general proof rule for reasoning about possibly nonterminating repetitions. The rule makes use of a Floyd-Hoare-style loop invariant that is maintained by each iteration of the repetition, a Jones-style relation between the pre- and post-states on each iteration, and a deadline specifying an upper bound on the starting time of each iteration. The general rule is proved correct with respect to a predicative semantics. In the case of a terminating repetition the rule reduces to the standard rule extended to handle real time. Other special cases include repetitions whose bodies are guaranteed to terminate, nonterminating repetitions with the constant true as a guard, and repetitions whose termination is guaranteed by the inclusion of a fixed deadline. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Genetics of Serum Dehydroepiandrosterone Sulfate and Its Relationship to Insulin in a Population-Based Cohort of Twin Subjects

Previous studies have shown a significant effect of insulin administration on serum dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate (DHEA-S) concentration and its metabolic rate, with evidence for the effect in men, but not in women. This could lead to differences in the sources of variation in serum DHEA-S between men and women and in its covariation with insulin concentration. This study aimed to test whether these hypotheses were supported in a sample of healthy adult twins. Serum DHEA-S (n=2287) and plasma insulin (n=2436) were measured in samples from adult male and female twins recruited through the Australian Twin Registry. Models of genetic and environmental sources of variation and covariation were tested against the data. DHEA-S showed substantial genetic effects in both men and women after adjustment for covariates, including sex, age, body mass index, and time since the last meal. There was no significant phenotypic or genetic correlation between DHEA-S and insulin in either men or women. Despite the experimental evidence for insulin infusion producing a reduction in serum DHEA-S and some effect of meals on the observed DHEA-S concentration, there were no associations between insulin and DHEA-S at the population level. Variations in DHEA-S are due to age, sex, obesity, and substantial polygenic genetic influences.

Saving, productivity and national income: a discrete-time geometric framework

This paper proposes an alternative geometric framework for analysing the inter-relationship between domestic saving, productivity and income determination in discrete time. The framework provides a means of understanding how low saving economies like the United States sustained high growth rates in the 1990s whereas high saving Japan did not. It also illustrates how the causality between saving and economic activity runs both ways and that discrete changes in national output and income depend on both current and previous accumulation behaviour. The open economy analogue reveals how international capital movements can create external account imbalances that enhance income growth for both borrower and lender economies. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Integrals for continuous-time Markov chains

This paper presents a method of evaluating the expected value of a path integral for a general Markov chain on a countable state space. We illustrate the method with reference to several models, including birth-death processes and the birth, death and catastrophe process. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

Microevolution in island forms: the roles of drift and directional selection in morphological divergence of a passerine bird

Theory predicts that in small isolated populations random genetic drift can lead to phenotypic divergence; however this prediction has rarely been tested quantitatively in natural populations. Here we utilize natural repeated island colonization events by members of the avian species complex, Zosterops lateralis, to assess whether or not genetic drift alone is an adequate explanation for the observed patterns of microevolutionary divergence in morphology. Morphological and molecular genetic characteristics of island and mainland populations are compared to test three predictions of drift theory: (1) that the pattern of morphological change is idiosyncratic to each island; (2) that there is concordance between morphological and neutral genetic shifts across island populations; and (3) for populations whose time of colonization is known, that the rate of morphological change is sufficiently slow to be accounted for solely by genetic drift. Our results are not consistent with these predictions. First, the direction of size shifts was consistently towards larger size, suggesting the action of a nonrandom process. Second, patterns of morphological divergence among recently colonized populations showed little concordance with divergence in neutral genetic characters. Third, rate tests of morphological change showed that effective population sizes were not small enough for random processes alone to account for the magnitude of microevolutionary change. Altogether, these three lines of evidence suggest that drift alone is not an adequate explanation of morphological differentiation in recently colonized island Zosterops and therefore we suggest that the observed microevolutionary changes are largely a result of directional natural selection.

Testing insect movement theory: empirical analysis of pest data routinely collected from agricultural crops

Observations of an insect's movement lead to theory on the insect's flight behaviour and the role of movement in the species' population dynamics. This theory leads to predictions of the way the population changes in time under different conditions. If a hypothesis on movement predicts a specific change in the population, then the hypothesis can be tested against observations of population change. Routine pest monitoring of agricultural crops provides a convenient source of data for studying movement into a region and among fields within a region. Examples of the use of statistical and computational methods for testing hypotheses with such data are presented. The types of questions that can be addressed with these methods and the limitations of pest monitoring data when used for this purpose are discussed. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Shear stress and sediment transport calculations for swash zone modelling

It is shown that the observed difference in sediment transporting efficiency by the swash uprush, compared with the downrush, could be mainly due to greater bed shear stress for a given velocity in the more abruptly accelerated uprush. The bed shear stress generated by an arbitrary free stream velocity time series is modelled in terms of usual wave boundary layer models plus a phase lead (phi(tau) of the bed shear stress compared with the free stream velocity at the peak frequency. With this approach, the total transport amounts in uprush and downrush can be modelled satisfactorily with the same sediment transport formula, without the need for different uprush and downrush coefficients. While the adaptation of sediment transport formulae from steady flow can thus lead to the right total amounts of sediment moved by this method, the timing of the instantaneous sediment transport rates are probably not accurately modelled due to the highly unsteady nature of the swash and the presence of pre-suspended sediment in the uprush. Nevertheless, the proposed method is a useful intermediate step before we have a complete understanding of sediment transport under very rapid accelerations and of the relative contribution of pre-suspended sediment to the onshore sediment transport in swash zones. (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.