New Zealand climate in the Neogene and implications for global atmospheric circulation

New Zealand has a good Neogene plant fossil record. During the Miocene it was without high topography and it was highly maritime, meaning that its climate, and the resulting vegetation, would be controlled dominantly by zonal climate conditions. Its vegetation record during this time suggests the climate passed from an ever-wet and cool but frostless phase in the Early Miocene in which Nothofagus subgenus Brassospora was prominent. Then it became seasonally dry, with vegetation in which palms and Eucalyptus were prominent and fires were frequent, and in the mid-Miocene, it developed a dry-climate vegetation dominated by Casuarinaceae. These changes are reflected in a sedimentological change from acidic to alkaline chemistry and the appearance of regular charcoal in the record. The vegetation then changed again to include a prominent herb component including Chenopodiaceae and Asteraceae. Sphagnum became prominent, and Nothofagus returned, but mainly as the subgenus Fuscospora (presently restricted to temperate climates). This is interpreted as a return to a generally wet, but now cold climate, in which outbreaks of cold polar air and frost were frequent. The transient drying out of a small maritime island and the accompanying vegetation/climate sequence could be explained by a higher frequency of the Sub-Tropical High Pressure (STHP) cells (the descending limbs of the Hadley cells) over New Zealand during the Miocene. This may have resulted from an increased frequency of 'blocking', a synoptic situation which occurs in the region today. An alternative hypothesis, that the global STHP belt lay at a significantly higher latitude in the early Neogene (perhaps 55degreesS) than today (about 30degreesS), is considered less likely because of physical constraints on STHP belt latitude. In either case, the difference between the early Neogene and present situation may have been a response to an increased polar-equatorial temperature gradient. This contrasts with current climate models for the geological past in which the latitude of the High Pressure belt impact is held invariant though geological time. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Discrete element modelling of the influence of lifters on power draw of tumbling mills

Crushing and grinding are the most energy intensive part of the mineral recovery process. A major part of rock size reduction occurs in tumbling mills. Empirical models for the power draw of tumbling mills do not consider the effect of lifters. Discrete element modelling was used to investigate the effect of lifter condition on the power draw of tumbling mill. Results obtained with PFC3D code show that lifter condition will have a significant influence on the power draw and on the mode of energy consumption in the mill. Relatively high lifters will consume less power than low lifters, under otherwise identical conditions. The fraction of the power that will be consumed as friction will increase as the height of the lifters decreases. This will result in less power being used for high intensity comminution caused by the impacts. The fraction of the power that will be used to overcome frictional resistance is determined by the material's coefficient of friction. Based on the modelled results, it appears that the effective coefficient of friction for in situ mill is close to 0.1. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Relations between high and low power groups: The importance of legitimacy

Using a social identity perspective, two experiments examined the effects of power and the legitimacy of power differentials on intergroup bias. In Experiment 1, 125 math-science students were led to believe that they had high or low representation in a university decision-making body relative to social-science students and that this power position was either legitimate or illegitimate. Power did not have an independent effect on bias; rather, members of both high and low power groups showed more bias when the power hierarchy was illegitimate than when it was legitimate. This effect was replicated in Experiment 2 (N =105). In addition, Experiment 2 showed that groups located within an unfair power hierarchy expected the superordinate power body to be more discriminatory than did those who had legitimately high or low power. The results are discussed in terms of their implications for group relations.

Discrete element modelling of power draw of tumbling mills

The power required to operate large mills is typically 5-10 MW. Hence, optimisation of power consumption will have a significant impact on overall economic performance and environmental impact. Power draw modelling results using the discrete element code PFC3D have been compared with results derived from the widely used empirical Model of Morrell. This is achieved by calculating the power draw for a range of operating conditions for constant mill size and fill factor using two modelling approaches. fThe discrete element modelling results show that, apart from density, selection of the appropriate material damping ratio is critical for the accuracy of modelling of the mill power draw. The relative insensitivity of the power draw to the material stiffness allows selection of moderate stiffness values, which result in acceptable computation time. The results obtained confirm that modelling of the power draw for a vertical slice of the mill, of thickness 20% of the mill length, is a reliable substitute for modelling the full mill. The power draw predictions from PFC3D show good agreement with those obtained using the empirical model. Due to its inherent flexibility, power draw modelling using PFC3D appears to be a viable and attractive alternative to empirical models where necessary code and computer power are available.

Estimates of global and regional potential health gains from reducing multiple major risk factors

Background Estimates of the disease burden due to multiple risk factors can show the potential gain from combined preventive measures. But few such investigations have been attempted, and none on a global scale. Our aim was to estimate the potential health benefits from removal of multiple major risk factors. Methods We assessed the burden of disease and injury attributable to the joint effects of 20 selected leading risk factors in 14 epidemiological subregions of the world. We estimated population attributable fractions, defined as the proportional reduction in disease or mortality that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to an alternative level, from data for risk factor prevalence and hazard size. For every disease, we estimated joint population attributable fractions, for multiple risk factors, by age and sex, from the direct contributions of individual risk factors. To obtain the direct hazards, we reviewed publications and re-analysed cohort data to account for that part of hazard that is mediated through other risks. Results Globally, an estimated 47% of premature deaths and 39% of total disease burden in 2000 resulted from the joint effects of the risk factors considered. These risks caused a substantial proportion of important diseases, including diarrhoea (92%-94%), lower respiratory infections (55-62%), lung cancer (72%), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (60%), ischaemic heart disease (83-89%), and stroke (70-76%). Removal of these risks would have increased global healthy life expectancy by 9.3 years (17%) ranging from 4.4 years (6%) in the developed countries of the western Pacific to 16.1 years (43%) in parts of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Removal of major risk factors would not only increase healthy life expectancy in every region, but also reduce some of the differences between regions, The potential for disease prevention and health gain from tackling major known risks simultaneously would be substantial.

An advanced method for eliminating impacts from frequency deviations in power system signal processing

Frequency deviation is a common problem for power system signal processing. Many power system measurements are carried out in a fixed sampling rate assuming the system operates in its nominal frequency (50 or 60 Hz). However, the actual frequency may deviate from the normal value from time to time due to various reasons such as disturbances and subsequent system transients. Measurement of signals based on a fixed sampling rate may introduce errors under such situations. In order to achieve high precision signal measurement appropriate algorithms need to be employed to reduce the impact from frequency deviation in the power system data acquisition process. This paper proposes an advanced algorithm to enhance Fourier transform for power system signal processing. The algorithm is able to effectively correct frequency deviation under fixed sampling rate. Accurate measurement of power system signals is essential for the secure and reliable operation of power systems. The algorithm is readily applicable to such occasions where signal processing is affected by frequency deviation. Both mathematical proof and numerical simulation are given in this paper to illustrate robustness and effectiveness of the proposed algorithm. Crown Copyright (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Usefulness of quantitative echocardiographic techniques to predict recovery of regional and global left ventricular function after acute myocardial infarction

The left ventricular response to dobutamine may be quantified using tissue Doppler measurement of myocardial velocity or displacement or 3-dimensional echocardiography to measure ventricular volume and ejection fraction. This study sought to explore the accuracy of these methods for predicting segmental and global responses to therapy. Standard dobutamine and 3-dimensional echocardiography were performed in 92 consecutive patients with abnormal left ventricular function at rest. Recovery of function was defined by comparison with follow-up echocardiography at rest 5 months later. Segments that showed improved regional function at follow-up showed a higher increment in peak tissue Doppler velocity with dobutamine therapy than in nonviable segments (1.2 +/- 0.4 vs 0.3 +/- 0.2 cm/s, p = 0.001). Similarly, patients who showed a > 5% improvement of ejection fraction at follow-up showed a greater displacement response to dobutamine (6.9 +/- 3.2 vs 2.1 +/- 2.3 mm, p = 0.001), as well as a higher rate of ejection fraction, response to dobutamine (9 +/- 3% vs 2 +/- 2%, p = 0.001). The optimal cutoff values for predicting subsequent recovery of function at rest were an increment of peak velocity > 1 cm/s, >5 mm of displacement, and a >5% improvement of ejection fraction with low-dose dobutamine. (C) 2003 by Excerpta Medica, Inc.

A global health problem caused by arsenic from natural sources

Arsenic is a carcinogen to both humans and animals. Arsenicals have been associated with cancers of the skin, lung, and bladder. Clinical manifestations of chronic arsenic poisoning include non-cancer end point of hyper- and hypo-pigmentation, keratosis, hypertension, cardiovascular diseases and diabetes. Epidemiological evidence indicates that arsenic concentration exceeding 50 mug l(-1) in the drinking water is not public health protective. The current WHO recommended guideline value for arsenic in drinking water is 10 mug l(-1), whereas many developing countries are still having a value of 50 mug 1(-1). It has been estimated that tens of millions of people are. at risk exposing to excessive levels of arsenic from both contaminated water and arsenic-bearing coal from natural sources. The global health implication and possible intervention strategies were also discussed in this review article. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Measuring the accumulated hazards of smoking: global and regional estimates for 2000

Objective: Current prevalence of smoking, even where data are available, is a poor proxy for cumulative hazards of smoking, which depend on several factors including the age at which smoking began, duration of smoking, number of cigarettes smoked per day, degree of inhalation, and cigarette characteristics such as tar and nicotine content or filter type. Methods: We extended the Peto-Lopez smoking impact ratio method to estimate accumulated hazards of smoking for different regions of the world. Lung cancer mortality data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease mortality database. The American Cancer Society Cancer Prevention Study, phase 11 (CPS-II) with follow up for the years 1982 to 1988 was the reference population. For the global application of the method, never-smoker lung cancer mortality rates were chosen based on the estimated use of coal for household energy in each region. Results: Men in industrialised countries of Europe, North America, and the Western Pacific had the largest accumulated hazards of smoking. Young and middle age males in many regions of the developing world also had large smoking risks. The accumulated hazards of smoking for women were highest in North America followed by Europe. Conclusions: In the absence of detailed data on smoking prevalence and history, lung cancer mortality provides a robust indicator of the accumulated hazards of smoking. These hazards in developing countries are currently more concentrated among young and middle aged males.

Estimates of global mortality attributable to smoking in 2000

Background Smoking is a risk factor for several diseases and has been increasing in many developing countries. Our aim was to estimate global and regional mortality in 2000 caused by smoking, including an analysis of uncertainty. Methods Following the methods of Peto and colleagues, we used lung-cancer mortality as an indirect marker for accumulated smoking risk. Never-smoker lung-cancer mortality was estimated based on the household use of coal with poor ventilation. Relative risks were taken from the American Cancer Society Cancer Prevention Study, phase II, and the retrospective proportional mortality analysis of Liu and colleagues in China. Relative risks were corrected for confounding and extrapolation to other regions. Results We estimated that in 2000, 4.83 (uncertainty range 3.94-5.93) million premature deaths in the world were attributable to smoking; 2.41 (1.80-3.15) million in developing countries and 2.43 (2.13-2.78) million in industrialised countries. 3.84 million of these deaths were in men. The leading causes of death from smoking were cardiovascular diseases (1.69 million deaths), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (0.97 million deaths), and lung cancer (0.85 million deaths). Interpretation Smoking was an important cause of global mortality in 2000. In view of the expected demographic and epidemiological transitions and current smoking patterns in the developing world, the health loss due to smoking will grow even larger unless effective interventions and policies that reduce smoking among men and prevent increases among women in developing countries are implemented.