Forecasting regional crop production using SOI phases: an example for the Australian peanut industry

Using peanuts as an example, a generic methodology is presented to forward-estimate regional crop production and associated climatic risks based on phases of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Yield fluctuations caused by a highly variable rainfall environment are of concern to peanut processing and marketing bodies. The industry could profitably use forecasts of likely production to adjust their operations strategically. Significant, physically based lag-relationships exist between an index of ocean/atmosphere El Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomenon and future rainfall in Australia and elsewhere. Combining knowledge of SOI phases in November and December with output from a dynamic simulation model allows the derivation of yield probability distributions based on historic rainfall data. This information is available shortly after planting a crop and at least 3-5 months prior to harvest. The study shows that in years when the November-December SOI phase is positive there is an 80% chance of exceeding average district yields. Conversely, in years when the November-December SOI phase is either negative or rapidly falling there is only a 5% chance of exceeding average district yields, but a 95% chance of below average yields. This information allows the industry to adjust strategically for the expected volume of production. The study shows that simulation models can enhance SOI signals contained in rainfall distributions by discriminating between useful and damaging rainfall events. The methodology can be applied to other industries and regions.

Effect of specific leaf nitrogen on radiation use efficiency and growth of sunflower

Specific leaf nitrogen (SLN, g/m(2)) is known to affect radiation use efficiency (RUE, g/MJ) in different crops, However, this association and importance have not been well established over a range of different nitrogen regimes for held-grown sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.). An experiment was conducted to investigate different combinations and rates of applied nitrogen on SLN, RUE, and growth of sunflower, A fully irrigated crop was sown on an alluvial-prairie soil (Fluventic Haplustoll) and treated with five combinations of applied nitrogen, Greater nitrogen increased biomass, grain number, and yield, but did not affect harvest index energy-corrected for oil (0.4) or canopy extinction coefficient (0.88), Decreases in biomass accumulation under low nitrogen treatments were associated,vith reductions in leaf area index (LAI) and light interception, When SLN and RUE were examined together, both were less in the anthesis to physiological maturity period, but relatively stable between bud visible and anthesis, However, the effects of canopy SLN on RUE were confounded by high SLN in the top of the canopy and the crop maintaining SLN by reducing LAI, Measurements of leaf CO2 assimilation and theoretical analyses of RUE supported that RUE was related to SLN, The major effect of nitrogen on early growth of sunflower was mediated by leaf area and the distribution of SLN in the canopy rather than direct effects of canopy SLN on RUE alone. Greater responses of RUE to SLN are more evident later in growth, and may be related to the demand of nitrogen by the grain.

Effect of radiation environment on radiation use efficiency and growth of sunflower

The level of incident radiation and the proportion of radiation that is diffuse affects radiation use efficiency (RUE) in crops, However, the degree of this effect, and its importance to growth and yield of sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.) have not been established. A field experiment was conducted to investigate the effects of radiation environment on RUE, growth, and yield of sunflower. A fully irrigated crop was sown on an alluvial-prairie soil (Fluventic Haplustoll) and was exposed to three distinct radiation environments. In two treatments, the level of incident radiation was reduced by 14 and 20% by suspending tao different types of polyethylene plastic films well above the crop. In addition to the reductions in incident radiation, the proportion of radiation that was diffuse was increased by about 14% in these treatments. Lower incident radiation and increased proportion of diffuse radiation had no effect on total biomass, phenology, leaf area, and the canopy light extinction coefficient (k = 0.89). However, yield was reduced in shaded treatments due to smaller grain size and lower harvest index. Although crop RUE measured over the entire crop cycle (1.25 g/MJ) did not differ significantly among treatments, there was a trend where RUE compensated for less intercepted incident radiation. Theoretical derivations of the response of RUE to different levels of incident radiation supported this finding. Shaded sunflower crops have the ability to produce biomass similar to unshaded crops by increasing RUE, but have lower harvest indices.

Sequential asymmetric auctions with endogenous participation

In this paper we suggest a model of sequential auctions with endogenous participation where each bidder conjectures about the number of participants at each round. Then, after learning his value, each bidder decides whether or not to participate in the auction. In the calculation of his expected value, each bidder uses his conjectures about the number of participants for each possible subgroup. In equilibrium, the conjectured probability is compatible with the probability of staying in the auction. In our model, players face participation costs, bidders may buy as many objects as they wish and they are allowed to drop out at any round. Bidders can drop out at any time, but they cannot come back to the auction. In particular we can determine the number of participants and expected prices in equilibrium. We show that for any bidding strategy, there exists such a probability of staying in the auction. For the case of stochastically independent objects, we show that in equilibrium every bidder who decides to continue submits a bid that is equal to his value at each round. When objects are stochastically identical, we are able to show that expected prices are decreasing.

Testing market efficiency: Evidence from the NFL sports betting market

This article examines the efficiency of the National Football League (NFL) betting market. The standard ordinary least squares (OLS) regression methodology is replaced by a probit model. This circumvents potential econometric problems, and allows us to implement more sophisticated betting strategies where bets are placed only when there is a relatively high probability of success. In-sample tests indicate that probit-based betting strategies generate statistically significant profits. Whereas the profitability of a number of these betting strategies is confirmed by out-of-sample testing, there is some inconsistency among the remaining out-of-sample predictions. Our results also suggest that widely documented inefficiencies in this market tend to dissipate over time.

Estimating correlations from epidemiological data in the presence of measurement error

Analysis of a major multi-site epidemiologic study of heart disease has required estimation of the pairwise correlation of several measurements across sub-populations. Because the measurements from each sub-population were subject to sampling variability, the Pearson product moment estimator of these correlations produces biased estimates. This paper proposes a model that takes into account within and between sub-population variation, provides algorithms for obtaining maximum likelihood estimates of these correlations and discusses several approaches for obtaining interval estimates. (C) 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Genetic heterogeneity in familial acute myelogenous leukemia: Evidence for a second locus at chromosome 16q21-23.2

The identification of genes responsible for the rare cases of familial leukemia may afford insight into the mechanism underlying the more common sporadic occurrences. Here we test a single family with 11 relevant meioses transmitting autosomal dominant acute myelogenous leukemia (AML) and myelodysplasia for linkage to three potential candidate loci. In a different family with inherited AML, linkage to chromosome 21q22.1-22.2 was recently reported; we exclude linkage to 21q22.1-22.2, demonstrating that familial AML is a heterogeneous disease. After reviewing familial leukemia and observing anticipation in the form of a declining age of onset with each generation, we had proposed 9p21-22 and 16q22 as additional candidate loci. Whereas linkage to 9p21-22 can be excluded, the finding of a maximum two-point LOD score of 2.82 with the microsatellite marker D16S522 at a recombination fraction theta = 0 provides evidence supporting linkage to 16q22. Haplotype analysis reveals a 23.5-cM (17.9-Mb) commonly inherited region among all affected family members extending from D16S451 to D1GS289, In order to extract maximum linkage information with missing individuals, incomplete informativeness with individual markers in this interval, and possible deviance from strict autosomal dominant inheritance, we performed nonparametric linkage analysis (NPL) and found a maximum NPL statistic corresponding to a P-value of .00098, close to the maximum conditional probability of linkage expected for a pedigree with this structure. Mutational analysis in this region specifically excludes expansion of the AT-rich minisatellite repeat FRA16B fragile site and the CAG trinucleotide repeat in the E2F-4 transcription factor. The ''repeat expansion detection'' method, capable of detecting dynamic mutation associated with anticipation, more generally excludes large CAG repeat expansion as a cause of leukemia in this family.

A Comparison of Bayesian and Sampling Theory Inferences in a Probit Model

HE PROBIT MODEL IS A POPULAR DEVICE for explaining binary choice decisions in econometrics. It has been used to describe choices such as labor force participation, travel mode, home ownership, and type of education. These and many more examples can be found in papers by Amemiya (1981) and Maddala (1983). Given the contribution of economics towards explaining such choices, and given the nature of data that are collected, prior information on the relationship between a choice probability and several explanatory variables frequently exists. Bayesian inference is a convenient vehicle for including such prior information. Given the increasing popularity of Bayesian inference it is useful to ask whether inferences from a probit model are sensitive to a choice between Bayesian and sampling theory techniques. Of interest is the sensitivity of inference on coefficients, probabilities, and elasticities. We consider these issues in a model designed to explain choice between fixed and variable interest rate mortgages. Two Bayesian priors are employed: a uniform prior on the coefficients, designed to be noninformative for the coefficients, and an inequality restricted prior on the signs of the coefficients. We often know, a priori, whether increasing the value of a particular explanatory variable will have a positive or negative effect on a choice probability. This knowledge can be captured by using a prior probability density function (pdf) that is truncated to be positive or negative. Thus, three sets of results are compared:those from maximum likelihood (ML) estimation, those from Bayesian estimation with an unrestricted uniform prior on the coefficients, and those from Bayesian estimation with a uniform prior truncated to accommodate inequality restrictions on the coefficients.

Willingness to pay for different degrees of abundance of elephants

This paper presents an application of the contingent valuation method (CVM) to determine how the willingness to pay (WTP) for conservation of Asian elephants varies with hypothetical variations in their population. Results from a CVM survey of a sample of urban residents in Colombo, the capital of Sri Lanka are used for this purpose. We find, consistent with the basic principles of consumer demand theory, the marginal change in the respondents’ WTP amounts is positive but appears to diminish in parallel to the increases in the current wild elephant population (CWEP). In contrast to theoretical expectations, however, we find that the WTP for preserving this species increases at an increasing rate in relation to decreases in the CWEP. This is probably because respondents perceive that extinction becomes more imminent as the abundance of the elephant is reduced and therefore it becomes more urgent to act. However, this adds a new complication to the interpretation of the WTP findings.

Absolute and relative abundance estimates of Australian east cost humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae)

The humpback whales that migrate along the east coast of Australia were hunted to near-extinction in the 1950s and early 1960s. Two independent series of land-based surveys conducted over the last 25 years during the whales’ northward migration along the Australian coastline have demonstrated a rapid increase in the size of the population. In 2004 we conducted a survey of the migratory population as a continuation of these series of surveys. Two methods of data analysis were used in line with the previous surveys, both for calculation of absolute and relative abundance. We consider the best estimates for 2004 to be 7,090 ± 660 (95% CI) whales with an annual rate of increase of 10.6 ± 0.5% (95% CI) for 1987 – 2004. The rate of increase agrees with those previously obtained for this population and demonstrates the continuation of a strong post-exploitation recovery. While there are still some uncertainties concerning the absolute abundance estimate and structure of this population, the rate of annual increase should be independent of these and highly robust.

Public choice of species for the ark: Phylogenetic similarity and preferred wildlife species for survival

Humans play a role in deciding the fate of species in the current extinction wave. Because of the previous Similarity Principle, physical attractiveness and likeability, it has been argued that public choice favours the survival of species that satisfy these criteria at the expense of other species. This paper empirically tests this argument by considering a hypothetical ‘Ark’ situation. Surveys of 204 members of the Australian public inquired whether they are in favour of the survival of each of 24 native mammal, bird and reptile species (prior to and after information provision about each species). The species were ranked by percentage of ‘yes’ votes received. Species composition by taxon in various fractions of the ranking was determined. If the previous Similarity Principle holds, mammals should rank highly and dominate the top fractions of animals saved in the hierarchical list. We find that although mammals would be over-represented in the ‘Ark’, birds and reptiles are unlikely to be excluded when social choice is based on numbers ‘voting’ for the survival of each species. Support for the previous Similarity Principle is apparent particularly after information provision. Public policy implications of this are noted and recommendations are given.

The metamorphosis of lambda-fold 4-wheel systems into lambda-fold 4-cycle systems

A 4-wheel is a simple graph on 5 vertices with 8 edges, formed by taking a 4-cycle and joining a fifth vertex (the centre of the 4-wheel) to each of the other four vertices. A lambda -fold 4-wheel system of order n is an edge-disjoint decomposition of the complete multigraph lambdaK(n) into 4-wheels. Here, with five isolated possible exceptions when lambda = 2, we give necessary and sufficient conditions for a lambda -fold 4-wheel system of order n to be transformed into a lambda -fold Ccyde system of order n by removing the centre vertex from each 4-wheel, and its four adjacent edges (retaining the 4-cycle wheel rim), and reassembling these edges adjacent to wheel centres into 4-cycles.

A fuzzy max-flow min-cut theorem

Interval-valued versions of the max-flow min-cut theorem and Karp-Edmonds algorithm are developed and provide robustness estimates for flows in networks in an imprecise or uncertain environment. These results are extended to networks with fuzzy capacities and flows. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Anisotropy-based performance analysis of linear discrete time invariant control systems

The anisotropic norm of a linear discrete-time-invariant system measures system output sensitivity to stationary Gaussian input disturbances of bounded mean anisotropy. Mean anisotropy characterizes the degree of predictability (or colouredness) and spatial non-roundness of the noise. The anisotropic norm falls between the H-2 and H-infinity norms and accommodates their loss of performance when the probability structure of input disturbances is not exactly known. This paper develops a method for numerical computation of the anisotropic norm which involves linked Riccati and Lyapunov equations and an associated special type equation.