Fitting genetic models to twin data with binary and ordered categorical responses: A comparison of structural equation modelling and Bayesian hierarchical models

We compare Bayesian methodology utilizing free-ware BUGS (Bayesian Inference Using Gibbs Sampling) with the traditional structural equation modelling approach based on another free-ware package, Mx. Dichotomous and ordinal (three category) twin data were simulated according to different additive genetic and common environment models for phenotypic variation. Practical issues are discussed in using Gibbs sampling as implemented by BUGS to fit subject-specific Bayesian generalized linear models, where the components of variation may be estimated directly. The simulation study (based on 2000 twin pairs) indicated that there is a consistent advantage in using the Bayesian method to detect a correct model under certain specifications of additive genetics and common environmental effects. For binary data, both methods had difficulty in detecting the correct model when the additive genetic effect was low (between 10 and 20%) or of moderate range (between 20 and 40%). Furthermore, neither method could adequately detect a correct model that included a modest common environmental effect (20%) even when the additive genetic effect was large (50%). Power was significantly improved with ordinal data for most scenarios, except for the case of low heritability under a true ACE model. We illustrate and compare both methods using data from 1239 twin pairs over the age of 50 years, who were registered with the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council Twin Registry (ATR) and presented symptoms associated with osteoarthritis occurring in joints of the hand.

The rheology of flotation froths

A literature review has highlighted the need to measure flotation froth rheology in order to fully characterise the role of the froth in the flotation process. The initial investigation using a coaxial cylinder viscometer for froth rheology measurement led to the development of a new device employing a vane measuring head. The modified rheometer was used in industrial scale flotation tests at Mt. Isa Copper Concentrator. The measured froth rheograms show a non-Newtonian nature for the flotation froths (pseudoplastic flow). The evidence of the non-Newtonian flow has questioned the validity of application of the Laplace equation in froth motion modelling as used by a number of researchers, since the assumption of irrotational flow is violated. Correlations between the froth rheology and the froth retention time, water hold-up in the froth and concentrate grades have been found. These correlations are independent of air flow rate (test data at various air flow rates fall on one similar trend line). This implies that froth rheology may be used as a lumped parameter for other operating variables in flotation modelling and scale up. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicting the HER2 status of breast cancer from basic histopathology data: an analysis of 1500 breast cancers as part of the HER2000 International Study

The tests that are currently available for the measurement of overexpression of the human epidermal growth factor-2 (HER2) in breast cancer have shown considerable problems in accuracy and interlaboratory reproducibility. Although these problems are partly alleviated by the use of validated, standardised 'kits', there may be considerable cost involved in their use. Prior to testing it may therefore be an advantage to be able to predict from basic pathology data whether a cancer is likely to overexpress HER2. In this study, we have correlated pathology features of cancers with the frequency of HER2 overexpression assessed by immunohistochemistry (IHC) using HercepTest (Dako). In addition, fluorescence in situ hybridisation (FISH) has been used to re-test the equivocal cancers and interobserver variation in assessing HER2 overexpression has been examined by a slide circulation scheme. Of the 1536 cancers, 1144 (74.5%) did not overexpress HER2. Unequivocal overexpression (3+ by IHC) was seen in 186 cancers (12%) and an equivocal result (2+ by IHC) was seen in 206 cancers (13%). Of the 156 IHC 3+ cancers for which complete data was available, 149 (95.5%) were ductal NST and 152 (97%) were histological grade 2 or 3. Only 1 of 124 infiltrating lobular carcinomas (0.8%) showed HER2 overexpression. None of the 49 'special types' of carcinoma showed HER2 overexpression. Re-testing by FISH of a proportion of the IHC 2+ cancers showed that only 25 (23%) of those assessable exhibited HER2 gene amplification, but 46 of the 47 IHC 3+ cancers (98%) were confirmed as showing gene amplification. Circulating slides for the assessment of HER2 score showed a moderate level of agreement between pathologists (kappa 0.4). As a result of this study we would advocate consideration of a triage approach to HER-2 testing. Infiltrating lobular and special types of carcinoma may not need to be routinely tested at presentation nor may grade 1 NST carcinomas in which only 1.4% have been shown to overexpress HER2. Testing of these carcinomas may be performed when HER2 status is required to assist in therapeutic or other clinical/prognostic decision-making. The highest yield of HER2 overexpressing carcinomas is seen in the grade 3 NST subgroup in which 24% are positive by IHC. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Capillaries within compartments: Microvascular interpretation of dynamic positron emission tomography data

Measurement of exchange of substances between blood and tissue has been a long-lasting challenge to physiologists, and considerable theoretical and experimental accomplishments were achieved before the development of the positron emission tomography (PET). Today, when modeling data from modern PET scanners, little use is made of earlier microvascular research in the compartmental models, which have become the standard model by which the vast majority of dynamic PET data are analysed. However, modern PET scanners provide data with a sufficient temporal resolution and good counting statistics to allow estimation of parameters in models with more physiological realism. We explore the standard compartmental model and find that incorporation of blood flow leads to paradoxes, such as kinetic rate constants being time-dependent, and tracers being cleared from a capillary faster than they can be supplied by blood flow. The inability of the standard model to incorporate blood flow consequently raises a need for models that include more physiology, and we develop microvascular models which remove the inconsistencies. The microvascular models can be regarded as a revision of the input function. Whereas the standard model uses the organ inlet concentration as the concentration throughout the vascular compartment, we consider models that make use of spatial averaging of the concentrations in the capillary volume, which is what the PET scanner actually registers. The microvascular models are developed for both single- and multi-capillary systems and include effects of non-exchanging vessels. They are suitable for analysing dynamic PET data from any capillary bed using either intravascular or diffusible tracers, in terms of physiological parameters which include regional blood flow. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An EM-based Semi-Parametric Mixture Model Approach to the Regression Analysis of Competing-Risks Data

We consider a mixture model approach to the regression analysis of competing-risks data. Attention is focused on inference concerning the effects of factors on both the probability of occurrence and the hazard rate conditional on each of the failure types. These two quantities are specified in the mixture model using the logistic model and the proportional hazards model, respectively. We propose a semi-parametric mixture method to estimate the logistic and regression coefficients jointly, whereby the component-baseline hazard functions are completely unspecified. Estimation is based on maximum likelihood on the basis of the full likelihood, implemented via an expectation-conditional maximization (ECM) algorithm. Simulation studies are performed to compare the performance of the proposed semi-parametric method with a fully parametric mixture approach. The results show that when the component-baseline hazard is monotonic increasing, the semi-parametric and fully parametric mixture approaches are comparable for mildly and moderately censored samples. When the component-baseline hazard is not monotonic increasing, the semi-parametric method consistently provides less biased estimates than a fully parametric approach and is comparable in efficiency in the estimation of the parameters for all levels of censoring. The methods are illustrated using a real data set of prostate cancer patients treated with different dosages of the drug diethylstilbestrol. Copyright (C) 2003 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Effect of changing data collection parameters on statistical motor unit number estimates

The effect of number of samples and selection of data for analysis on the calculation of surface motor unit potential (SMUP) size in the statistical method of motor unit number estimates (MUNE) was determined in 10 normal subjects and 10 with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). We recorded 500 sequential compound muscle action potentials (CMAPs) at three different stable stimulus intensities (10–50% of maximal CMAP). Estimated mean SMUP sizes were calculated using Poisson statistical assumptions from the variance of 500 sequential CMAP obtained at each stimulus intensity. The results with the 500 data points were compared with smaller subsets from the same data set. The results using a range of 50–80% of the 500 data points were compared with the full 500. The effect of restricting analysis to data between 5–20% of the CMAP and to standard deviation limits was also assessed. No differences in mean SMUP size were found with stimulus intensity or use of different ranges of data. Consistency was improved with a greater sample number. Data within 5% of CMAP size gave both increased consistency and reduced mean SMUP size in many subjects, but excluded valid responses present at that stimulus intensity. These changes were more prominent in ALS patients in whom the presence of isolated SMUP responses was a striking difference from normal subjects. Noise, spurious data, and large SMUP limited the Poisson assumptions. When these factors are considered, consistent statistical MUNE can be calculated from a continuous sequence of data points. A 2 to 2.5 SD or 10% window are reasonable methods of limiting data for analysis. Muscle Nerve 27: 320–331, 2003

Model-based clustering in gene expression microarrays: An application to breast cancer data

In microarray studies, the application of clustering techniques is often used to derive meaningful insights into the data. In the past, hierarchical methods have been the primary clustering tool employed to perform this task. The hierarchical algorithms have been mainly applied heuristically to these cluster analysis problems. Further, a major limitation of these methods is their inability to determine the number of clusters. Thus there is a need for a model-based approach to these. clustering problems. To this end, McLachlan et al. [7] developed a mixture model-based algorithm (EMMIX-GENE) for the clustering of tissue samples. To further investigate the EMMIX-GENE procedure as a model-based -approach, we present a case study involving the application of EMMIX-GENE to the breast cancer data as studied recently in van 't Veer et al. [10]. Our analysis considers the problem of clustering the tissue samples on the basis of the genes which is a non-standard problem because the number of genes greatly exceed the number of tissue samples. We demonstrate how EMMIX-GENE can be useful in reducing the initial set of genes down to a more computationally manageable size. The results from this analysis also emphasise the difficulty associated with the task of separating two tissue groups on the basis of a particular subset of genes. These results also shed light on why supervised methods have such a high misallocation error rate for the breast cancer data.

Zygosity Diagnosis in the Absence of Genotypic Data: An Approach Using Latent Class Analysis

For zygosity diagnosis in the absence of genotypic data, or in the recruitment phase of a twin study where only single twins from same-sex pairs are being screened, or to provide a test for sample duplication leading to the false identification of a dizygotic pair as monozygotic, the appropriate analysis of respondents' answers to questions about zygosity is critical. Using data from a young adult Australian twin cohort (N = 2094 complete pairs and 519 singleton twins from same-sex pairs with complete responses to all zygosity items), we show that application of latent class analysis (LCA), fitting a 2-class model, yields results that show good concordance with traditional methods of zygosity diagnosis, but with certain important advantages. These include the ability, in many cases, to assign zygosity with specified probability on the basis of responses of a single informant (advantageous when one zygosity type is being oversampled); and the ability to quantify the probability of misassignment of zygosity, allowing prioritization of cases for genotyping as well as identification of cases of probable laboratory error. Out of 242 twins (from 121 like-sex pairs) where genotypic data were available for zygosity confirmation, only a single case was identified of incorrect zygosity assignment by the latent class algorithm. Zygosity assignment for that single case was identified by the LCA as uncertain (probability of being a monozygotic twin only 76%), and the co-twin's responses clearly identified the pair as dizygotic (probability of being dizygotic 100%). In the absence of genotypic data, or as a safeguard against sample duplication, application of LCA for zygosity assignment or confirmation is strongly recommended.

Systematic characterization of mutations in yeast acetohydroxyacid synthase: Interpretation of herbicide-resistance data

Acetohydroxyacid synthase (AHAS, EC 4.1.3.18) catalyses the first step in branched-chain amino acid biosynthesis and is the target for sulfonylurea and imidazolinone herbicides, which act as potent and specific inhibitors. Mutants of the enzyme have been identified that are resistant to particular herbicides. However, the selectivity of these mutants towards various sulfonylureas and imidazolinones has not been determined systematically. Now that the structure of the yeast enzyme is known, both in the absence and presence of a bound herbicide, a detailed understanding of the molecular interactions between the enzyme and its inhibitors becomes possible. Here we construct 10 active mutants of yeast AHAS, purify the enzymes and determine their sensitivity to six sulfonylureas and three imidazolinones. An additional three active mutants were constructed with a view to increasing imidazolinone sensitivity. These three variants were purified and tested for their sensitivity to the imidazolinones only. Substantial differences are observed in the sensitivity of the 13 mutants to the various inhibitors and these differences are interpreted in terms of the structure of the herbicide-binding site on the enzyme.

Bovine-serum-albumin-containing receptor phase better predicts transdermal absorption parameters for lipophilic compounds

Based on the hypothesis that limited receptor solubility of lipophilic compounds may result in lower observed permeability parameters, the aim of this study was to determine the in vitro human epidermal permeability coefficients and membrane retention of a series of aliphatic alcohols (C1-C10, log p -0.72 to 4.06) using two different receptor solutions (water and 4% bovine serum albumin in phosphate-buffered saline). Aqueous solutions of radiolabeled alcohols were dosed into the stratum corneum side of membranes mounted in side-by-side glass diffusion cells. Appearance of alcohol in the receptor compartment filled with either of the two solutions was monitored over a 7 h period when both stratum corneum (assessed by tape stripping) and the remaining epidermis levels of radioactivity were determined. In a separate study the degree of binding of alcohols to 4% bovine serum albumin was determined. The data showed increased receptor phase solubility in the bovine serum albumin solution and higher permeability coefficients for the more lipophilic alcohols in the series. No changes were seen in the partitioning of the alcohols from the vehicle into either the stratum corneum or tape-stripped epidermis with the two receptor phases; however, a decrease in the amount of the more lipophilic alcohols partitioning into the water receptor phase from the tape-stripped epidermis was observed. We conclude that bovine serum albumin receptor phase allows better estimation of real permeability parameters for lipophilic compounds due to its increased solubility capacity and we question whether permeability parameters for lipophilic solutes from older data sets based on aqueous receptor phases are completely reliable.

Effect of vehicle pretreatment on the flux, retention, and diffusion of topically applied penetrants in vitro

Purpose. The flux of a topically applied drug depends on the activity in the skin and the interaction between the vehicle and skin. Permeation of vehicle into the skin can alter the activity of drug and the properties of the skin barrier. The aim of this in vitro study was to separate and quantify these effects. Methods. The flux of four radiolabeled permeants (water, phenol, diflunisal, and diazepam) with log K-oct/water values from 1.4 to 4.3 was measured over 4 h through heat-separated human epidermis pretreated for 30 min with vehicles having Hildebrand solubility parameters from 7.9 to 23.4 (cal/cm(3))(1/2). Results. Enhancement was greatest after pretreatment with the more lipophilic vehicles. A synergistic enhancement was observed using binary mixtures. The flux of diazepam was not enhanced to the same extent as the other permeants, possibly because its partitioning into the epidermis is close to optimal (log K-oct 2.96). Conclusion. An analysis of the permeant remaining in the epidermis revealed that the enhancement can be the result of either increased partitioning of permeant into the epidermis or an increasing diffusivity of permeants through the epidermis.

A molecular phylogeny of the Australian skink genera Eulamprus, Gnypetoscincus and Nangura

Skinks from the genera Eulamprus, Gnypetoscincus and Nangura are a prominent component of the reptile fauna of the mesic forests of the east coast of Australia and have been the subject of numerous ecological studies. Highly conserved morphology and the retention of ancestral traits have limited our understanding of the relationships within and among these genera beyond an initial identification of species groups within Eulamprus. To address this deficit and to explore the relationships between Eulamprus and the monotypic genera Nangura and Gnypetoscincus, sections of two mitochondrial genes (ND4 and 16S rRNA) were sequenced and subjected to Bayesian phylogenetic analysis. This phylogenetic analysis supports recognition of the three species groups proposed for Eulamprus (murrayi, quoyii and tenuis) and indicates that this genus is paraphyletic, with Gnypetoscincus and Nangura being proximal to basal lineages of the tenuis group. To resolve these and broader problems of paraphyly, we suggest that each of the species groups from 'Eulamprus' should be recognised as a distinct genus. The phylogenetically and ecologically distinct water skinks of the quoyii group would be retained within Eulamprus and the diverse species of the tenuis group allocated to Concinnia. We suggest placing the monophyletic murrayi group, endemic to the rainforests of central eastern Australia, in a new genus ( yet to be formally described). The sequencing data also revealed the existence of a genetically divergent but morphologically cryptic lineage within E. murrayi and substantial diversity within E. quoyii. There is evidence for two major habitat shifts from rainforest towards drier habitats, one leading to the quoyii group and the second defining a clade of three species within the tenuis complex. These ecological transitions may represent adaptations to general drying across eastern Australia during the late Miocene - Pliocene. Each of the major areas of east coast tropical or subtropical rainforest contains multiple phylogenetically diverse endemic species, reflecting the long-term persistence and high conservation value of wet forest habitats in each area.

The characteristics of six species of living hollow-bearing trees and their importance for arboreal marsupials in the dry sclerophyll forests of southeast Queensland, Australia

Six species of trees located in the dry sclerophyll forests of southeast Queensland were studied to ascertain which was most suitable to be retained as hollow-bearing trees for nesting and denning by arboreal marsupials. Generally for all tree species, the number of entrances to hollows was positively correlated with the diameter at breast height (DBH) and the growth stage, and entrance diameters also increased in trees with a larger DBH. However, there were differences between the species; Corymbia citriodora had few hollows until the individuals were very large while Eucalyptus crebra had low numbers of hollows throughout its entire size range. It was concluded that a mixture of tree species provided a range of hollow sizes and positions that would be suitable for nesting and denning by arboreal marsupials in those forests. There were large differences between tree species in the relationship between tree size and estimated age. Five of the tree species took between 186 and 230 years to begin to produce hollows while E. crebra took up to 324 years. This suggests that tree species other than E. crebra may be the most preferred for retention in areas where hollow-bearing tree densities are lower than the prescribed level. Other data also suggests there are likely to be enough trees in larger size classes that would begin to form hollows within the next 50 years to compensate for an expected loss of hollow-bearing stags during that same period. In terms of forest operation, the retention of six hollow-bearing trees/ha would represent an estimated loss of 7.3-15% wood production. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Influence of hysteresis on tidal capillary fringe dynamics in a well-sorted sand

Nielsen and Perrochet [Adv. Water Resour. 23 (2000) 503] presented experimental data for cyclic water movement in the vadose zone above an oscillating watertable. The response of the watertable to cyclic forcing was characterised by the ratios of the forcing head to watertable amplitudes and their associated phase lag. They found that their non-hysteretic Richards' equation model failed to represent the observed behaviour of these parameters. This paper explores the effect on the simulated capillary fringe dynamics (in terms of these parameters) of including varying degrees of hysteresis in the moisture retention curve used in a numerical model of their experiment. It is clear that hysteresis can indeed account for observed discrepancies between simulation and experiment and that the effect of hysteresis varies with the frequency of oscillation. The use of a single-valued mean retention curve, as advocated by some authors, fails to provide a match between the simulated and observed behaviour of the Nielsen and Perrochet parameters, but is shown to be adequate for predicting time-averaged soil moisture profiles. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.