Short-term electricity price forecasting using wavelet and SVM techniques

In deregulated electricity market, modeling and forecasting the spot price present a number of challenges. By applying wavelet and support vector machine techniques, a new time series model for short term electricity price forecasting has been developed in this paper. The model employs both historical price and other important information, such as load capacity and weather (temperature), to forecast the price of one or more time steps ahead. The developed model has been evaluated with the actual data from Australian National Electricity Market. The simulation results demonstrated that the forecast model is capable of forecasting the electricity price with a reasonable forecasting accuracy.

Acceptability of short term neo-adjuvant androgen deprivation in patients with locally advanced prostate cancer

Purpose: To determine the acceptability of short term neo-adjuvant maximal androgen deprivation (MAD) to patients treated with external beam radiation for locally advanced prostate cancer. Methods: Between 1996 and 2000, 818 patients with locally advanced, but non-metastatic, prostate cancer were entered into a randomised clinical trial (TROG 96.01), which compared radiation treatment alone with the same radiation treatment and 3 or 6 months neo-adjuvant MAD with goserelin and flutamide. Relevant symptoms, and how troublesome they were to the patient, were scored using a self-assessment questionnaire. This was completed by the patient at registration, and at specified times during and after treatment. Patients taking flutamide had liver function tests checked at regular intervals. Results: All patients have completed at least 12 months follow-up after treatment. Nearly all patients completed planned treatment with goserelin, but 27% of patients in the 6-month MAD treatment arm, and 20% in the 3-month arm, had to stop flutamide early. This was mainly due to altered liver function (up to 17% patients) and bowel side effects (up to 8% patients). However, although flutamide resulted in more bowel symptoms for patients on MAD, there was significant reduction in some urinary symptoms on this treatment. Acute bowel and urinary side effects at the end of radiation treatment were similar in all treatment arms. Side effect severity was unrelated to radiation target volume size, which was reduced by MAD, but symptomatology prior to any treatment was a powerful predictor. Of the 36% of patients who were sexually active before any treatment, the majority became inactive whilst on MAD. However, sexual activity at 12 months after radiation treatment was similar in all treatment arms, indicating that the effects of short term MAD on sexual function are reversible. Conclusion: Despite temporary effects on sexual activity, and compliance difficulties with flutamide, short-term neo-adjuvant MAD was not perceived by patients to be a major inconvenience. If neo-adjuvant MAD in the way tested can be demonstrated to lead to improved biochemical control and/or survival, then patients would view these therapeutic gains as worthwhile. Compliance with short-term goserelin was excellent, confirming that LH-RH analogues have a potential role in more long-term adjuvant treatment. However, for more protracted androgen deprivation, survival advantages and deleterious effects need to be assessed in parallel, in order to determine the optimal duration of treatment. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All fights reserved.

Short-term effects of carbon source on the competition of polyphosphate accumulating organisms and glycogen accumulating organisms

The effectiveness of enhanced biological phosphorus removal (ESPR) systems is directly affected by the competition of polyphosphate accumulating organisms (PAOs) and glycogen accumulating organisms (GAOs). This study investigated the short-term effects of carbon source on PAO and GAO performance. The tests were designed to clearly determine the impact of volatile fatty acid (VFA) composition on the performance of two types of biomass, one enriched for PAOs and the other for GAOs. The two populations were enriched in separate reactors using identical operating conditions and very similar influent compositions with acetate as the sole carbon source. The only difference was that a very tow level of phosphorus was present in the influent to the GAO reactor. The abundance of PAOs and GAOs was quantified using fluorescence in-situ hybridisation. The results clearly show that there are some very distinctive differences between PAOs and GAOs in their ability to utilise different carbon substrates. While both are able to take up acetate rapidly and completely, the GAOs are far slower at consuming propionate than the PAOs during short-term substrate changes. This provides a potentially highly valuable avenue to influence the competition between PAOs and GAOs. Other VFAs studied seem to be less usable in the short term by both PAOs and GAOs; as indicated by their much lower uptake rates.

Short-term peaks in glucose promote renal fibrogenesis independently of total glucose exposure

Postprandial hyperglycemia is implicated as a risk factor predisposing to vascular complications. This study was designed to assess recurrent short-term increases in glucose on markers of renal fibrogenesis. Human renal cortical fibroblasts were exposed to fluctuating short-term (2 h) increases to 15 mM D-glucose, three times a day over 72 h, on a background of 5 mM D-glucose. To determine whether observed changes were due to fluctuating osmolality, identical experiments were undertaken with cells exposed to L-glucose. Parallel experiments were performed in cells exposed to 5 mM D-glucose and constant exposure to either 15 or 7.5 mM D-glucose. Fluctuating D-glucose increased extracellular matrix, as measured by proline incorporation ( P < 0.05), collagen IV ( P < 0.005), and fibronectin production ( P < 0.001), in association with increased tissue inhibitor of matrix metalloproteinase (MMP) ( P < 0.05). Sustained exposure to 15 mM D-glucose increased fibronectin ( P < 0.001), in association with increased MMP-2 ( P = 0.01) and MMP-9 activity ( P < 0.05), suggestive of a protective effect on collagen matrix accumulation. Transforming growth factor-beta(1) (TGF-beta(1)) mRNA was increased after short-term (90 min) exposure to 15 mM glucose (P < 0.05) and after 24-h exposure to 7.5 mM ? ( P < 0.05). Normalization of TGF-beta(1) secretion occurred within 48 h of constant exposure to an elevated glucose. Fluctuating L-glucose also induced TGF-beta(1) mRNA and a profibrotic profile, however, to a lesser extent than observed with exposure to fluctuating D-glucose. The results suggest that exposure to fluctuating glucose concentrations increases renal interstitial fibrosis compared with stable elevations in D-glucose. The effects are, in part, due to the inherent osmotic changes.

The short-term effects of air pollution on daily mortality in four Australian cities

Objective: To examine the short-term health effects of air pollution on daily mortality in four Australian cities (Brisbane, Melbourne, Perth and Sydney), where more than 50% of Australians reside. Methods: The study used a similar protocol to APHEA2 (Air Pollution and Health: A European Approach) study and derived single-city and pooled estimates. Results: The results derived from the different approaches for the 1996-99 period showed consistent results for different statistical models used. There were significant effects on total mortality, (RR=1.0284 per 1 unit increase in nelphelometry [10(-4).m(-1)], RR=1.0011 per 1ppb increase in NO2), and on respiratory mortality (RR=1.0022 per 1ppb increase in O-2). No significant differences between cities were found, but the NO2 and particle effects may refer to the same impacts. Meta-analyses carried out for three cities yielded estimates for the increase in the daily total number of deaths of 0.2% (-0.8% to 1.2%) for a 10 mu g/m(3) increase in PM, concentration, and 0.9% (-0.7% to 2.5%) for a 10 mu g/m(3) increase in PM2.5 concentration. Conclusions: Air pollutants in Australian cities have significant effects on mortality.

The short-term effects of air pollution on hospital admissions in four Australian cities

Background. This paper examines the short-term health effects of air pollution on daily hospital admissions in Australian cities (those considered comprise more than 50% of the Australian population) for the period 1996-99. Methods: The study used a similar protocol to overseas studies and derived single city and pooled estimates using different statistical approaches to assess the accuracy of the results. Results: There was little difference between the results derived from the different statistical approaches for cardiovascular admissions, while in those for respiratory admissions there were differences. For three of the four cities (for the other the results were positive but not significant), fine particles (measured by nephelometry - bsp) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) have a significant impact on cardiovascular admissions (for total cardiac admissions, RR=1.0856 for a one-unit increase in bsp (10(-4). m(-1)), RR=1.0023 for a 1 ppb increase in NO2). For three of the four cities (for the other, the results were negative and significant), fine particles, NO2 and ozone have a significant impact on respiratory admissions (for total elderly respiratory admissions, RR=1.0552 per 1 unit (10(-4).m(-1)) increase in bsp, RR=1.0027 per 1ppb increase in NO2, RR=10014 per 1 ppb increase in ozone for elderly asthma and COPD admissions). In all analyses the particle and NO2 impacts appear to be related. Conclusions: Similar to overseas studies, air pollution has an impact on hospital admissions in Australian cities, but there can be significant differences between cities.

Improved physical performance in older adults undertaking a short-term programme of high-velocity resistance training

Background: The age-related loss of muscle power in older adults is greater than that of muscle strength and is associated with a decline in physical performance. Objective: To investigate the effects of a short-term high-velocity varied resistance training programme on physical performance in healthy community-dwelling adults aged 60-80 years. Methods: Subjects undertook exercise (EX; n = 15) or maintained customary activity (controls, CON; n = 10) for 8 weeks. The EX group trained 2 days/week using machine weights for three sets of eight repetitions at 35, 55, and 75% of their one-repetition maximum (the maximal weight that an individual can lift once with acceptable form) for seven upper- and lower-body exercises using explosive concentric movements. Results: Fourteen EX and 10 CON subjects completed the study. Dynamic muscle strength significantly increased (p = 0.001) in the EX group for all exercises (from 21.4 +/- 9.6 to 82.0 +/- 59.2%, mean +/- SD) following training, as did knee extension power (p < 0.01). Significant improvement occurred for the EX group in the floor rise to standing (10.4 &PLUSMN; 11.5%, p = 0.004), usual 6-metre walk (6.6 &PLUSMN; 8.2%, p = 0.010), repeated chair rise (10.4 &PLUSMN; 15.6%, p = 0.013), and lift and reach (25.6 &PLUSMN; 12.1%, p = 0.002) performance tasks but not in the CON group. Conclusions: Progressive resistance training that incorporates rapid rate-of-force development movements may be safely undertaken in healthy older adults and results in significant gains in muscle strength, muscle power, and physical performance. Such improvements could prolong functional independence and improve the quality of life. Copyright (C) 2005 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Are there non-linearities in short-term interest rates?

The present paper investigates the characteristics of short-term interest rates in several countries. We examine the importance of nonlinearities in the mean reversion and volatility of short-term interest rates. We examine various models that allow the conditional mean (drift) and conditional variance (diffusion) to be functions of the current short rate.We find that different markets require different models. In particular, we find evidence of nonlinear mean reversion in some of the countries that we examine, linear mean reversion in others and no mean reversion in some countries. For all countries we examine, there is strong evidence of the need for the volatility of interest rate changes to be highly sensitive to the level of the short-term interest rate. Out-of-sample forecasting performance of one-factor short rate models is poor, stemming from the inability of the models to accommodate jumps and discontinuities in the time series data.

Short-Term Perturbations and Tourism Effects: The case of SARS in China

In China, protected areas are one of the main destinations attracting tourists and homeland for many poor people living in and around them. Based on a case study, the paper focuses on correlation between tourism and poverty alleviation by tracing the cash flows to the local poor. It also reviews the social and environmental effects of tourism on local area. The case study is conducted in a group of protected areas in Qinling Mountain Region in Shaanxi, a western province in China. Qinling Mountain is one of the most important distribution zones for Giant Panda and some other endangered wildlife such as Golden Takin and Golden Monkey. The tourism development in the region is happening. Research indicates that there is 29.33%, of tourist expenditure is going to local households, directly or indirectly. Tourist spends US$7.11 (13.67%) in food and beverage, and US$6.39 (12.23%) in accommodation service, which are the greatest contributors to local households in terms of tourism benefits. Local households can get US$8.15 from food/beverage and accommodation sectors, taking 56.64% of total income from tourism. Generally, tourism development benefits all stakeholders. However, poor people get less benefit. The paper analyses the barriers for the poor to be involved in tourism development, and discusses the government roles, major issues in implementation of Sustainable Tourism-Eliminating Poverty (ST-EP) model.

Reduced between-hospital variation in short term survival after acute myocardial infarction: the result of improved cardiac care?

Objectives: To re-examine interhospital variation in 30 day survival after acute myocardial infarction ( AMI) 10 years on to see whether the appointment of new cardiologists and their involvement in emergency care has improved outcome after AMI. Design: Retrospective cohort study. Setting: Acute hospitals in Scotland. Participants: 61 484 patients with a first AMI over two time periods: 1988 - 1991; and 1998 - 2001. Main outcome measures: 30 day survival. Results: Between 1988 and 1991, median 30 day survival was 79.2% ( interhospital range 72.1 - 85.1%). The difference between highest and lowest was 13.0 percentage points ( age and sex adjusted, 12.1 percentage points). Between 1998 and 2001, median survival rose to 81.6% ( and range decreased to 78.0 - 85.6%) with a difference of 7.6 ( adjusted 8.8) percentage points. Admission hospital was an independent predictor of outcome at 30 days during the two time periods ( p< 0.001). Over the period 1988 - 1991, the odds ratio for death ranged, between hospitals, from 0.71 ( 95% confidence interval ( CI) 0.58 to 0.88) to 1.50 ( 95% CI 1.19 to 1.89) and for the period 1998 - 2001 from 0.82 ( 95% CI 0.60 to 1.13) to 1.46 ( 95% CI 1.07 to 1.99). The adjusted risk of death was significantly higher than average in nine of 26 hospitals between 1988 and 1991 but in only two hospitals between 1998 and 2001. Conclusions: The average 30 day case fatality rate after admission with an AMI has fallen substantially over the past 10 years in Scotland. Between-hospital variation is also considerably less notable because of better survival in the previously poorly performing hospitals. This suggests that the greater involvement of cardiologists in the management of AMI has paid dividends.

Response of holosymbiont pigments from the scleractinian coral Montipora monasteriata to short-term heat stress

Heating the scleractinian coral, Montipora monasteriata (Forskal 1775) to 32 degrees C under < 650 mu mol quanta m(-2) s(-1) led to bleaching in the form of a reduction in Peridinin, xanthophyll pool, chlorophyll c(2) and chlorophyll a, but areal dinoflagellates densities did not decline. Associated with this bleaching, chlorophyll (Chl) allomerization and dinoflagellate xanthophyll cycling increased. Chl allomerization is believed to result from the interaction of Chl with singlet oxygen (O-1(2)) or other reactive oxygen species. Thermally induced increases in Chl allomerization are consistent with other studies that have demonstrated that thermal stress generates reactive oxygen species in symbiotic dinoflagellates. Xanthophyll cycling requires the establishment of a pH gradient across the thylakoid membrane. Our results indicate that, during the early stages of thermal stress, thylakoid membranes are intact. Different morphs of M. monasteriata responded differently to the heat stress applied: heavily pigmented coral hosts taken from a high-light environment showed significant reductions in green fluorescent protein (GFP)-like homologues, whereas nonhost pigmented high-light morphs experienced a significant reduction in water-soluble protein content. Paradoxically, the more shade acclimated cave morph were, based on Chl fluorescence data, less thermally stressed than either of the high-light morphs. These results Support the importance of coral pigments for the regulation of the light environment within the host tissue.

Short-term hyperthermic treatment of Penaeus monodon increases expression of heat shock protein 70 (HSP70) and reduces replication of gill associated virus (GAV)

Disease is the result of interactions amongst pathogens, the environment and host organisms. To investigate the effect of stress on Penaeus monodon, juvenile shrimp were given short term exposure to hypoxic, hyperthermic and osmotic stress twice over a 1-week period and estimates of total haemocyte count (THC), heat shock protein (HSP) 70 expression and load of gill associated virus (GAV) were determined at different time points. While no significant differences were observed in survival and THC between stressed and control shrimp (P>0.05), HSP 70 expression and GAV load changed significantly (P

Short-term effects of cycle and treadmill training on exercise tolerance in peripheral arterial disease

Background. To explore the efficacy of cycle training in the treatment of intermittent claudication, the present study compared performance and physiologic effects of cycle training with more conventional treadmill walking training in a group of patients with claudication. Method: Forty-two individuals with peripheral arterial disease and intermittent claudication (24 men, 18 women) were stratified by gender and the presence or absence of type 2 diabetes mellitus and then randomized to a treadmill (n = 13), cycle (n = 15), or control group (n = 14). Treadmill and cycle groups trained three times a week for 6 weeks, whereas the control group did not train during this period. Maximal and pain-free exercise times were measured on graded treadmill and cycle tests before and after training. Results. Treadmill training significantly improved maximal and pain-free treadmill walking times but did not improve cycle performance. Cycle training significantly improved maximal cycle time but did not improve treadmill performance. However, there was evidence of a stronger cross-transfer effect between the training modes for patients who reported a common limiting symptom during cycling and walking at baseline. There was also considerable variation in the training response to cycling, and a subgroup of responsive patients in the cycle group improved their walking performance by more than the average response observed in the treadmill group. Conclusion: These findings suggest that cycle exercise is not effective in improving walking performance in all claudication patients but might be an effective alternative to walking in those who exhibit similar limiting symptoms during both types of exercise.