Usefulness of clinical risk markers and ischemic threshold to stratify risk in patients undergoing major noncardiac surgery

The risk of cardiac events in patients undergoing major noncardiac surgery is dependent on their clinical characteristics and the results of stress testing. The purpose of this study was to develop a composite approach to defining levels of risk and to examine whether different approaches to prophylaxis influenced this prediction of outcome. One hundred forty-five consecutive patients (aged 68 +/- 9 years, 79 men) with >1 clinical risk variable were studied with standard dobutamine-atropine stress echo before major noncardiac surgery. Risk levels were stratified according to the presence of ischemia (new or worsening wall motion abnormality), ischemic threshold (heart rate at development of ischemia), and number of clinical risk variables. Patients were followed for perioperative events (during hospital admission) and death or infarction over the subsequent 16 10 months. Ten perioperative events occurred in 105 patients who proceeded to surgery (10%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 5% to 17%), 40 being cancelled because of cardiac or other risk. No ischemia was identified in 56 patients, 1 of whom (1.8%) had a perioperative infarction. Of the 49 patients with ischemia, 22 (45%) had 1 or 2 clinical risk factors; 2 (9%, 95% CI 1% to 29%) had events. Another 15 patients had a high ischemic threshold and 3 or 4 risk factors; 3 (20%, 95% Cl 4% to 48%) had events. Twelve patients had a low ischemic threshold and 3 or 4 risk factors; 4 (33%, 95% CI 10% to 65%) had events. Preoperative myocardial revascularization was performed in only 3 patients, none of whom had events. Perioperative and long-term events occurred despite the use of beta blockers; 7 of 41 eta blocker-treated patients had a perioperative event (17%, 95% CI 7% to 32%); these treated patients were at higher anticipated risk than untreated patients (20 +/- 24% vs 10 +/- 19%, p = 0.02). The total event rate over late follow-up was 13%, and was predicted by dobutamine-atropine stress echo results and heart rate response. (C) 2002 by Excerpta Medica, Inc.

A comparison of lipid variables as predictors of cardiovascular disease in the Asia Pacific Region

PURPOSE: Many guidelines advocate measurement of total or low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL), high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL), and triglycerides (TG) to determine treatment recommendations for preventing coronary heart disease (CHD) and cardiovascular disease (CVD). This analysis is a comparison of lipid variables as predictors of cardiovascular disease. METHODS: Hazard ratios for coronary and cardiovascular deaths by fourths of total cholesterol (TC), LDL, HDL, TG, non-HDL, TC/HDL, and TG/HDL values, and for a one standard deviation change in these variables, were derived in an individual participant data meta-analysis of 32 cohort studies conducted in the Asia-Pacific region. The predictive value of each lipid variable was assessed using the likelihood ratio statistic. RESULTS: Adjusting for confounders and regression dilution, each lipid variable had a positive (negative for HDL) log-linear association with fatal CHD and CVD. Individuals in the highest fourth of each lipid variable had approximately twice the risk of CHD compared with those with lowest levels. TG and HDL were each better predictors of CHD and CVD risk compared with TC alone, with test statistics similar to TC/HDL and TG/HDL ratios. Calculated LDL was a relatively poor predictor. CONCLUSIONS: While LDL reduction remains the main target of intervention for lipid-lowering, these data support the potential use of TG or lipid ratios for CHD risk prediction. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Overweight and obesity increase the risk of coronary heart disease: A pooled analysis of 30 prospective studies

The importance of overweight as a risk factor for coronary heart disease (CHD) remains unsettled. We estimated the relative risk (RR) for CHD associated with underweight (body mass index, BMI < 20 kg/m2), overweight (25 – 30 kg/m2) and obesity (= 30 kg/m2), compared with normal weight (20 – 25 kg/m2) in a random effects meta-analysis of 30 prospective studies, including 389,239 healthy, predominantly Caucasian persons. We also explored sources of heterogeneity between studies and examined effects of systematic adjustment for confounding and intermediary variables. Pooled age-, sex- and smoking-adjusted RRs (95% confidence interval) for overweight, obesity and underweight compared with normal weight were 1.33 (1.24 – 1.43), 1.69 (1.44 – 1.99) and 1.01 (0.85 – 1.20), respectively. Stratified analyses showed that pooled RRs for BMI were higher for studies with longer follow-up (= vs. < 15 years) and younger populations (< vs. = 60 years). Additional adjustment for blood pressure, cholesterol levels and physical activity decreased the RR per 5 BMI units from 1.28 (1.21 – 1.34) to 1.16 (1.11 – 1.21). We conclude that overweight and obesity are associated with a substantially increased CHD risk in Caucasians, whereas underweight is not. Prevention and reduction of overweight and obesity, therefore, remain of importance for preventing CHD.

A stochastic frontier production function with flexible risk properties

This paper considers a stochastic frontier production function which has additive, heteroscedastic error structure. The model allows for negative or positive marginal production risks of inputs, as originally proposed by Just and Pope (1978). The technical efficiencies of individual firms in the sample are a function of the levels of the input variables in the stochastic frontier, in addition to the technical inefficiency effects. These are two features of the model which are not exhibited by the commonly used stochastic frontiers with multiplicative error structures, An empirical application is presented using cross-sectional data on Ethiopian peasant farmers. The null hypothesis of no technical inefficiencies of production among these farmers is accepted. Further, the flexible risk models do not fit the data on peasant farmers as well as the traditional stochastic frontier model with multiplicative error structure.

Diet, lifestyle and the risk of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in women

Background Previous studies have examined individual dietary and lifestyle factors in relation to type 2 diabetes, but the combined effects of these factors are largely unknown. Methods We followed 84,941 female nurses from 1980 to 1996; these women were free of diagnosed cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and cancer at base line. Information about their diet and lifestyle was updated periodically. A low-risk group was defined according to a combination of five variables: a body-mass index (the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters) of less than 25; a diet high in cereal fiber and polyunsaturated fat and low in trans fat and glycemic load (which reflects the effect of diet on the blood glucose level); engagement in moderate-to-vigorous physical activity for at least half an hour per day; no current smoking; and the consumption of an average of at least half a drink of an alcoholic beverage per day. Results During 16 years of follow-up, we documented 3300 new cases of type 2 diabetes. Overweight or obesity was the single most important predictor of diabetes. Lack of exercise, a poor diet, current smoking, and abstinence from alcohol use were all associated with a significantly increased risk of diabetes, even after adjustment for the body-mass index. As compared with the rest of the cohort, women in the low-risk group (3.4 percent of the women) had a relative risk of diabetes of 0.09 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.05 to 0.17). A total of 91 percent of the cases of diabetes in this cohort (95 percent confidence interval, 83 to 95 percent) could be attributed to habits and forms of behavior that did not conform to the low-risk pattern. Conclusions Our findings support the hypothesis that the majority of cases of type 2 diabetes could be prevented by the adoption of a healthier lifestyle.

Urban birth and migrant status as risk factors for psychosis: An Australian case-control study

Background Urban birth and migrant status have been identified as risk factors for psychosis in North American and European studies. The aim of this study was to explore these variables in an Australian case-control study. Method Country of birth of subjects and their parents, and place of birth of Australian-born subjects, were examined in individuals with psychosis drawn from a prevalence study (n = 310) and well controls recruited from the same catchment area (n = 303). Results Migrant status was associated with a significantly decreased odds of having a psychotic disorder. For those born in Australia, neither migrant status of parents nor urban birth was associated with having a psychotic disorder. Conclusions The lack of effect for urban birth and second-generation migrant status may help generate candidate environmental risk factors that operate in Europe but not in Australia.

Injury related risk behavior - a study of Australian skydivers

Risk taking behaviour has been identified as an important host-related determinant of injury in young adults. The aim of this study is to clarify the relationship between the two key elements of risk taking behaviour - ie, risk assessment and risk acceptance - in participants of a high risk sporting activity. Skydivers registered with the Australian Parachute Federation were sampled at several jump meetings held at three 'drop-zones' in North Eastern Australia. A cross sectional survey of 215 skydivers ascertained each subject's risk assessment of each of nine hypothetical sky diving scenes and whether or not they would jump in the described conditions. Variables which independently predicted an individual's risk assessment were age group (p < 0.05), gender (p < 0.05) and scene details (p < 0.001). Risk assessment was found to be a statistically significant predictor of the decision to jump, with a 22% decrease in the odds of jumping with every unit increase in risk assessment (OR = 0.78: 95% Cl; 0.76, 0.80). Gender was also found to be a statistically significant predictor of the decision to jump, with males being 19% more likely to jump than females, after controlling for age, experience, currency and risk assessment (OR = 1.19: 95% CI; 1.04, 1.38). The importance of these results is that, by quantifying the relationship between two key elements of risk taking behaviour and several important host factor determinants, they facilitate more informed discussion about the possible role of risk taking behaviour in the causation of injury.

The outcome in Australian children with hyperinsulinism of infancy: early extensive surgery in severe cases lowers risk of diabetes

AIMS Hyperinsulinism of infancy (HI) is characterized by unregulated insulin secretion in the presence of hypoglycaemia, often resulting in brain damage. Pancreatic resection for control of hypoglycaemia is frequently resisted because of the risk of diabetes mellitus (DM). We investigated retrospectively 62 children with HI from nine Australian treatment centres born between 1972 and 1998, comparing endocrine and neurological outcome in 28 patients receiving medical therapy alone with 34 who required pancreatic resection to control their hypoglycaemia. METHODS History, treatment and clinical course were ascertained from file audit and interview. Risk of DM (hazard ratio) attributable to age at surgery (< vs. greater than or equal to 100 days at last pancreatectomy) and extent of resection (< vs. greater than or equal to 95%) were calculated using Cox proportional hazards regression and categorical variables compared by the chi(2) -test. Neurological outcome (normal, mild deficit or severe deficit) was derived from the most authoritative source. RESULTS Surgically treated patients had a greater birthweight, earlier presentation and higher plasma insulin levels. Of 18 infants < 100 days and 16 greater than or equal to 100 days of age at surgery, four (all greater than or equal to 100 days) became diabetic as an immediate consequence of surgery and five (two < 100 days and three greater than or equal to 100 days) became diabetic 7-18 years later. Surgery greater than or equal to 100 days and pancreatectomy greater than or equal to 95% were associated with development of diabetes (HR = 12.61, CI 1.53-104.07 and HR = 7.03, CI 1.43-34.58, respectively). Neurodevelopmental outcome was no different between the surgical and medical groups with 44% overall with neurological deficits. Patients euglycaemic within 35 days of the first symptom of hypoglycaemia (Group A) had a better neurodevelopmental outcome than those still hypoglycaemic > 35 days from first presentation (Group B) (P = 0.007). Prolonged hypoglycaemia in Group B was due either to delayed diagnosis or to need for repeat surgery because of continued hypoglycaemia. Within Group A, medically treated patients (who presented later with apparently milder disease) had a higher incidence of neurodevelopmental deficit (n = 15, four mild, three severe deficit) compared with surgically treated patients (n = 18, two mild, none severe deficit) (P < 0.025). CONCLUSIONS Poor neurodevelopmental outcome remains a major problem in hyperinsulinism of infancy. Risk of diabetes mellitus with pancreatectomy varies according to age at surgery and extent of resection. Patients presenting early with severe disease have a better neurodevelopmental outcome and lower risk of diabetes if they are treated with early extensive surgery.

Carotid intima-media thickness, cardiovascular risk factors and albuminuria in a remote Australian Aboriginal community

Background: Rates of cardiovascular disease and renal disease in Australian Aboriginal communities are high, as is the prevalence of some 'traditional' cardiovascular (CV) risk factors, such as diabetes and cigarette smoking. Recent work has highlighted the importance of markers of inflammation, such as C-reactive protein (CRP), homocysteine and albuminuria as predictors of cardiovascular risk in urban westernised settings. It is not clear how these factors relate to outcome in the setting of these remote communities, but very high CRP concentrations have been shown in this and other Aboriginal communities. Methods and results: In a cross-sectional survey including 237 adults in a remote Aboriginal community in the Northern Territory of Australia, we measured carotid intima-media thickness (IMT), together with blood pressure, diabetes, lipid levels, smoking and albuminuria, CRP and fibrinogen, serum homocysteine concentration, and IgG titres for Chlamydia pneumoniae, Helicobacter pylori and cytomegalovirus. Median carotid IMT was 0.63 [interquartile range 0.54-0.71] mm. As a categorical outcome, the prevalence of the highest IMT quartile ('increased IMT', greater than or equal to0.72 mm) was compared with the lower three quartiles. Increased IMT was associated in univariate analyses with greater waist circumference, systolic BP, fibrinogen and serum albumin concentrations, urine albumin/creatinine ratio and older age as continuous variables. Associations of increased IMT with some continuous variables were not linear; univariate associations were seen with the highest quartile (versus all other quartiles) of CRP and homocysteine concentration and CMV IgG titre. In a multivariate model age, smoking, waist circumference and the highest quartile of CRP concentrations (greater than or equal to14 mg/l) remained significant predictors of IMT greater than or equal to0.72 mm. Conclusions: Measurement of carotid IMT was possible in this remote setting. Increased IMT (greater than or equal to0.72 mm) was associated with increased CRP concentrations over a range that suggests infection/inflammation may be important determinants of cardiovascular risk in this setting. The associations of IMT with markers of renal disease seen in univariate analyses were explained in this analysis by confounding due to the associations of urine ACR with other risk factors. (C) 2004 Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Adaptation to being at-risk for Huntington's disease and the availability of genetic testing: Application of a stress and coping model

This study examined the utility of a stress/coping model in explaining adaptation in two groups of people at-risk for Huntington's Disease (HD): those who have not approached genetic testing services (non-testees) and those who have engaged a testing service (testees). The aims were (1) to compare testees and non-testees on stress/coping variables, (2) to examine relations between adjustment and the stress/coping predictors in the two groups, and (3) to examine relations between the stress/coping variables and testees' satisfaction with their first counselling session. Participants were 44 testees and 40 non-testees who completed questionnaires which measured the stress/coping variables: adjustment (global distress, depression, health anxiety, social and dyadic adjustment), genetic testing concerns, testing context (HD contact, experience, knowledge), appraisal (control, threat, self-efficacy), coping strategies (avoidance, self-blame, wishful thinking, seeking support, problem solving), social support and locus of control. Testees also completed a genetic counselling session satisfaction scale. As expected, non-testees reported lower self-efficacy and control appraisals, higher threat and passive avoidant coping than testees. Overall, results supported the hypothesis that within each group poorer adjustment would be related to higher genetic testing concerns, contact with HD, threat appraisals, passive avoidant coping and external locus of control, and lower levels of positive experiences with HD, social support, internal locus of control, self-efficacy, control appraisals, problem solving, emotional approach and seeking social support coping. Session satisfaction scores were positively correlated with dyadic adjustment, problem solving and positive experience with HD, and inversely related to testing concerns, and threat and control appraisals. Findings support the utility of the stress/coping model in explaining adaptation in people who have decided not to seek genetic testing for HD and those who have decided to engage a genetic testing service.

Injury and risk-taking behavior - a systematic review

There is a substantial body of work in the scientific literature discussing the role of risk-taking behavior in the causation of injury. Despite the quantity of diverse writings on the subject most is in the form of theoretical commentaries. This review was conducted to critically assess the empirical evidence supporting the association between injury and risk-taking behavior. The review found six case-control studies and one retrospective cohort study, which met all the inclusion criteria. Meta-analysis was not possible due to the diversity of the independent and outcome variables in each of the studies reviewed. Overall the review found that risk-taking behavior, however it is measured, is associated with an increased chance of sustaining an injury except in the case of high skilled, risk-taking sports where the effect may be in the other direction. Drawing specific conclusions from the research presented in this review is difficult without an agreed conceptual framework for examining risk-taking behavior and injury. Considerable work needs to be done to provide a convincing evidence base on which to build public health interventions around risk behavior. However, sufficient evidence exists to suggest that effort in this area may be beneficial for the health of the community. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk factors for pregnancy and childbearing in single young women: Evidence from the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health

This study investigated psychosocial predictors of early pregnancy and childbearing in single young women, consistent with the Eriksonian developmental perspective. Two mail-out surveys assessing reproductive behaviour and sociodemographic, education/competence, psychosocial well-being, and aspiration factors were completed 4 years apart by 2635 young women, aged 18 to 20 when first surveyed. Young women in the emerging adulthood'' developmental period were selected from the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health. Longitudinally, lower investment in education over low-status paid work, experiencing unemployment, greater psychosocial distress, stress and alcohol use, and high family aspirations combined with low vocational aspirations were risk factors for early single pregnancy and childbearing. Several mediational relationships also existed between these predictor variables. It was concluded that psychosocial factors play an important role in understanding early pregnancy and childbearing in single young Australian women, and that the findings provide some support for investigating early pregnancy and childbearing from an Eriksonian developmental perspective.

Psychosocial and non-psychosocial risk factors for the new diagnosis of diabetes in elderly women

Objectives: Determine psychosocial variables associated with the new diagnosis of diabetes in elderly women. Examine whether variables remained significant predictors after controlling for non-psychosocial risk factors and the frequency of doctor visits. Research design and methods: A longitudinal cohort study was conducted using data from 10 300 women who completed a survey in 1996 and 1999. The women were aged between 70 and 74 years of age in 1996. The were asked to provide self-reports on a number of psychosocial and non-psychosocial variables in 1996 and on whether they had been diagnosed for the first time with diabetes in the 3-year period. The relationships between the potential risk factors and new diagnosis of diabetes were examined using binary logistic regression analysis. Results: Univariate results showed that not having a current partner, having low social support and having a mental health index score in the clinical range were all associated with higher risks of being diagnosed with diabetes for the first time. However the multivariate results showed that only a mental health index score in the clinical range and not having a current partner provided unique prediction of being newly diagnosed with diabetes. Of the non-psychosocial variables measured, only having a high BMI and hypertension were associated with increased risks of new diagnosis, while there was also evidence of a U shaped relationship between alcohol consumption and new diagnosis. Even after adjusting for frequency of doctor visits and non-psychosocial risk factors, a mental health index in the clinical range proved to still be a significant risk factor. Conclusions: A score on the mental health index that is within the clinical range is an independent risk factor for the new diagnosis of diabetes in elderly women. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Does chemotherapy improve survival in high-risk Stage I and II Merkel cell carcinoma of the skin?

Purpose: The effectiveness of synchronous carboplatin, etoposide, and radiation therapy in improving survival was evaluated by comparison of a matched set of historic control subjects with patients treated in a prospective Phase II study that used synchronous chemotherapy and radiation and adjuvant chemotherapy. Patients and Methods: Patients were included in the analysis if they had disease localized to the primary site and nodes, and they were required to have at least one of the following high-risk features: recurrence after initial therapy, involved nodes, primary size greater than 1 cm, or gross residual disease after surgery. All patients who received chemotherapy were treated in a standardized fashion as part of a Phase II study (Trans-Tasman Radiation Oncology Group TROG 96:07) from 1997 to 2001. Radiation was delivered to the primary site and nodes to a dose of 50 Gy in 25 fractions over 5 weeks, and synchronous carboplatin (AUC 4.5) and etoposide, 80 mg/m(2) i.v. on Days 1 to 3, were given in Weeks 1, 4, 7, and 10. The historic group represents a single institution's experience from 1988 to 1996 and was treated with surgery and radiation alone, and patients were included if they fulfilled the eligibility criteria of TROG 96:07. Patients with occult cutaneous disease were not included for the purpose of this analysis. Because of imbalances in the prognostic variables between the two treatment groups, comparisons were made by application of Cox's proportional hazard modeling. Overall survival, disease-specific survival, locoregional control, and distant control were used as endpoints for the study. Results: Of the 102 patients who had high-risk Stage I and II disease, 40 were treated with chemotherapy (TROG 96:07) and 62 were treated without chemotherapy (historic control subjects). When Cox's proportional hazards modeling was applied, the only significant factors for overall survival were recurrent disease, age, and the presence of residual disease. For disease-specific survival, recurrent disease was the only significant factor. Primary site on the lower limb had an adverse effect on locoregional control. For distant control, the only significant factor was residual disease. Conclusions: The multivariate analysis suggests chemotherapy has no effect on survival, but because of the wide confidence limits, a chemotherapy effect cannot be excluded. A study of this size is inadequately powered to detect small improvements in survival, and a larger randomized study remains the only way to truly confirm whether chemotherapy improves the results in high-risk MCC. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc.