A real options based method for power system planning

A deregulated electricity market is characterized with uncertainties, with both long and short terms. As one of the major long term planning issues, the transmission expansion planning (TEP) is aiming at implementing reliable and secure network support to the market participants. The TEP covers two major issues: technical assessment and financial evaluations. Traditionally, the net present value (NPV) method is the most accepted for financial evaluations, it is simple to conduct and easy to understand. Nevertheless, TEP in a deregulated market needs a more dynamic approach to incorporate a project's management flexibility, or the managerial ability to adapt in response to unpredictable market developments. The real options approach (ROA) is introduced here, which has clear advantage on counting the future course of actions that investors may take, with understandable results in monetary terms. In the case study, a Nordic test system has been testified and several scenarios are given for network expansion planning. Both the technical assessment and financial evaluation have been conducted in the case study.

Power generation investment opportunities evaluation: A comparison between net present value and real options approach

To evaluate an investment project in the competitive electricity market, there are several key factors that affects the project's value: the present value that the project could bring to investor, the possible future course of actions that investor has and the project's management flexibility. The traditional net present value (NPV) criteria has the ability to capture the present value of the project's future cash flow, but it fails to assess the value brought by market uncertainty and management flexibility. By contrast with NPV, the real options approach (ROA) method has the advantage to combining the uncertainty and flexibility in evaluation process. In this paper, a framework for using ROA to evaluate the generation investment opportunity has been proposed. By given a detailed case study, the proposed framework is compared with NPV and showing a different results

A power system control scheme based on security visualisation in parameter space

Power system real time security assessment is one of the fundamental modules of the electricity markets. Typically, when a contingency occurs, it is required that security assessment and enhancement module shall be ready for action within about 20 minutes’ time to meet the real time requirement. The recent California black out again highlighted the importance of system security. This paper proposed an approach for power system security assessment and enhancement based on the information provided from the pre-defined system parameter space. The proposed scheme opens up an efficient way for real time security assessment and enhancement in a competitive electricity market for single contingency case

Transport properties of strongly correlated metals: A dynamical mean-field approach

The temperature dependence of the transport properties of the metallic phase of a frustrated Hubbard model on the hypercubic lattice at half-filling is calculated. Dynamical mean-held theory, which maps the Hubbard model onto a single impurity,Anderson model that is solved self-consistently, and becomes exact in the limit of large dimensionality, is used. As the temperature increases there is a smooth crossover from coherent Fermi liquid excitations at low temperatures to incoherent excitations at high temperatures. This crossover leads to a nonmonotonic temperature dependence for the resistance, thermopower, and Hall coefficient, unlike in conventional metals. The resistance smoothly increases from a quadratic temperature dependence at low temperatures to large values which can exceed the Mott-Ioffe-Regel value ha/e(2) (where a is a lattice constant) associated with mean free paths less than a lattice constant. Further signatures of the thermal destruction of quasiparticle excitations are a peak in the thermopower and the absence of a Drude peak in the optical conductivity. The results presented here are relevant to a wide range of strongly correlated metals, including transition metal oxides, strontium ruthenates, and organic metals.

An Economic Analysis of the Legal Concept of Trustees' Power of Investment

Authorised trustee status is a legal concept which has economic implications; one of the major implications is that it assists in the direction of investment funds into particular securities and areas of the economy. The concept of authorised trustee status, while attempting to achieve specific outcomes for the beneficiaries of trusts cannot be relied upon to secure these results. Economic analysis of the role of the trustee maintains that this role is one of portfolio manager; a role which is complex but which is explicable in terms of definable procedures and practices. The role of trustee as portfolio manager is one which requires greater financial knowledge than can be assumed is possessed by all trustees. The trustee as portfolio manager is required to maintain a review of decisions make under powers to invest trust assets. A solution to the problem of authorised trustee status is proposed. The solution takes two parts: the first is the adoption of the prudent person approach but with the codification of duties of the trustee and the explicit listing of the factors that a trustee should consider in using the investment powers. The second part of the proposed solution is to link the investment powers of trustees to the best practice features of securities advisers who are now licensed by a regulatory body, the Australian Securities and Investment Commission.

Power of the joint segregation analysis method for testing mixed major-gene and polygene inheritance models of quantitative traits

Understanding the genetic architecture of quantitative traits can greatly assist the design of strategies for their manipulation in plant-breeding programs. For a number of traits, genetic variation can be the result of segregation of a few major genes and many polygenes (minor genes). The joint segregation analysis (JSA) is a maximum-likelihood approach for fitting segregation models through the simultaneous use of phenotypic information from multiple generations. Our objective in this paper was to use computer simulation to quantify the power of the JSA method for testing the mixed-inheritance model for quantitative traits when it was applied to the six basic generations: both parents (P-1 and P-2), F-1, F-2, and both backcross generations (B-1 and B-2) derived from crossing the F-1 to each parent. A total of 1968 genetic model-experiment scenarios were considered in the simulation study to quantify the power of the method. Factors that interacted to influence the power of the JSA method to correctly detect genetic models were: (1) whether there were one or two major genes in combination with polygenes, (2) the heritability of the major genes and polygenes, (3) the level of dispersion of the major genes and polygenes between the two parents, and (4) the number of individuals examined in each generation (population size). The greatest levels of power were observed for the genetic models defined with simple inheritance; e.g., the power was greater than 90% for the one major gene model, regardless of the population size and major-gene heritability. Lower levels of power were observed for the genetic models with complex inheritance (major genes and polygenes), low heritability, small population sizes and a large dispersion of favourable genes among the two parents; e.g., the power was less than 5% for the two major-gene model with a heritability value of 0.3 and population sizes of 100 individuals. The JSA methodology was then applied to a previously studied sorghum data-set to investigate the genetic control of the putative drought resistance-trait osmotic adjustment in three crosses. The previous study concluded that there were two major genes segregating for osmotic adjustment in the three crosses. Application of the JSA method resulted in a change in the proposed genetic model. The presence of the two major genes was confirmed with the addition of an unspecified number of polygenes.

Social rules for managing attempted interpersonal domination in the workplace: Influence of status and gender.

The present study utilized a social rules approach to investigate the relative influence of gender and status on managers' self-evaluations of their effectiveness in handling a dominating subordinate. In the first study 84 White middle-class participants identified the prescriptive and proscriptive rules for socially appropriate responding to a stimulus situation involving a pushy subordinate. Four rule sets were identified for female and male managers and subordinates, respectively. Rule-sets shared a number of common rules and showed some variation according to gender roles. In the second study, 91 White middle-class participants rated the individual rules for importance and also rated their personal and managerial effectiveness when responding to the stimulus situation using gender- and status-consistent and gender-and status-inconsistent response strategies. Both men and women rated the female gender and status- consistent strategy as most effective, and rated the status-inconsistent strategy as less effective than a gender-inconsistent response. Results were interpreted as providing more support for a situational gender-related theory of workplace behavior, rather than a traditional gender role perspective.

Balancing the number and size of sites: An economic approach to the optimal design of cluster samples

The design of randomized controlled trials entails decisions that have economic as well as statistical implications. In particular, the choice of an individual or cluster randomization design may affect the cost of achieving the desired level of power, other things being equal. Furthermore, if cluster randomization is chosen, the researcher must decide how to balance the number of clusters, or sites, and the size of each site. This article investigates these interrelated statistical and economic issues. Its principal purpose is to elucidate the statistical and economic trade-offs to assist researchers to employ randomized controlled trials that have desired economic, as well as statistical, properties. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Trust me, I'm your boss: Trust and power in supervisor-supervisee communication

This study examined employees' perceptions of trust, power and mentoring in manager-employee relationships in a variety of sectors, including health care, education, hospitality and retail. The main theoretical frameworks used were communication accommodation theory and social identity theory, in examining the manager-employee relationships from an in-group/out-group perspective. Computer-aided content analyses revealed a number of emergent communication and relationship themes that impact upon the level of 'in-groupness' and therefore trust in supervisor-supervisee relationships. While it may be illusory to believe that any organization can enjoy complete trust among its workforce, it is clear that certain communication characteristics can result in greater trust in manager-employee relationships, even within the context of organizational constraints. It is argued that the results of the study could be used to inform human resource management academics of key aspects of managerial communication that should be further researched, and also provide insights into the main communication skills that managers should focus upon to improve trust in the workplace.

The role of the board in firm strategy: Integrating agency and organisational control perspectives

The role of the board of directors in firm strategy has long been the subject of debate. However, research efforts have suffered from several deficiencies: the lack of an overarching theoretical perspective, reliance on proxies for the strategy role rather than a direct measure of it and the lack of quantitative data linking this role to firm financial performance. We propose a new theoretical perspective to explain the board's role in strategy, integrating organisational control and agency theories. We categorise a board's approach to strategy according to two constructs: strategic control and financial control. The extent to which either construct is favoured depends on contextual factors such as board power, environmental uncertainty and information asymmetry.

Modern environmental improvement pathways for the coal power generation industry in Australia

In this work we assess the pathways for environmental improvement by the coal utilization industry for power generation in Australia. In terms of resources, our findings show that coal is a long term resource of concern as coal reserves are likely to last for the next 500 years or more. However, our analysis indicates that evaporation losses of water in power generation will approach 1000 Gl (gigalitres) per year, equivalent to a consumption of half of the Australian residential population. As Australia is the second driest continent on earth, water consumption by power generators is a resource of immediate concern with regards to sustainability. We also show that coal will continue to play a major role in energy generation in Australia and, hence, there is a need to employ new technologies that can minimize environmental impacts. The major technologies to reduce impacts to air, water and soils are addressed. Of major interest, there is a major potential for developing sequestration processes in Australia, in particular by enhanced coal bed methane (ECBM) recovery at the Bowen Basin, South Sydney Basin and Gunnedah Basin. Having said that, CO2 capture technologies require further development to support any sequestration processes in order to comply with the Kyoto Protocol. Current power generation cycles are thermodynamic limited, with 35-40% efficiencies. To move to a high efficiency cycle, it is required to change technologies of which integrated gasification combined cycle plus fuel cell is the most promising, with efficiencies expected to reach 60-65%. However, risks of moving towards an unproven technology means that power generators are likely to continue to use pulverized fuel technologies, aiming at incremental efficiency improvements (business as usual). As a big picture pathway, power generators are likely to play an increasing role in regional development; in particular EcoParks and reclaiming saline water for treatment as pressures to access fresh water supplies will significantly increase.

Myocardial blood volume and perfusion reserve responses to combined dipyridamole and exercise stress: A quantitative approach to contrast stress echocardiography

Background: Qualitative interpretation of myocardial contrast echocardiography (MCE) improves the accuracy of wall-motion analysis for assessment of coronary artery disease (CAD). We examined the feasibility and accuracy of quantitative MCE for diagnosis of CAD. Methods: Dipyridamole/exercise stress MCE (destruction-replenishment protocol with real-time imaging) was performed in 90 patients undergoing quantitative coronary angiography, 48 of whom had significant (> 50%) stenoses. MCE was repeated with exercise alone in 18 patients. Myocardial blood flow (A*beta) was obtained from blood volume (A) and time to refill (beta). Results: Quantification of flow reserve was feasible in 88%. The mean A*beta reserve in the anterior wall was significantly impaired for patients with left anterior descending coronary artery disease (n = 28) compared with those with no disease (1.6 +/- 1.2 vs; 4.0 +/- 2.5, P <=.001). This reflected impaired beta reserve, with no difference in the A reserve. Applying a receiver operating characteristic curve derived cutoff of 2.0 for A*beta reserve, quantitative MCE was 76% sensitive and 71% specific for the diagnosis of significant left anterior descending coronary artery stenosis. Posterior circulation results were similar, with 78% sensitivity and 59% specificity for detection of posterior CAD. Overall, quantitative MCE was similarly sensitive to qualitative approach for diagnosis of CAD (88% vs 93%), but with lower specificity (52% vs 65%, P =.07). In 18 patients restudied with pure exercise stress, the mean myocardial blood flow reserve was less than after combined stress (2.1 +/- 1.6 vs 3.7 +/- 1.9, P =.01). Conclusion: Quantitative MCE is feasible for the diagnosis of CAD with dipyridamole/exercise stress. Dipyridamole prolongs postexercise hyperemia, augmenting the degree of hyperemia at the time of imaging.