Precautionary principles: a jurisdiction-free framework for decision-making under risk

Fundamental principles of precaution are legal maxims that ask for preventive actions, perhaps as contingent interim measures while relevant information about causality and harm remains unavailable, to minimize the societal impact of potentially severe or irreversible outcomes. Such principles do not explain how to make choices or how to identify what is protective when incomplete and inconsistent scientific evidence of causation characterizes the potential hazards. Rather, they entrust lower jurisdictions, such as agencies or authorities, to make current decisions while recognizing that future information can contradict the scientific basis that supported the initial decision. After reviewing and synthesizing national and international legal aspects of precautionary principles, this paper addresses the key question: How can society manage potentially severe, irreversible or serious environmental outcomes when variability, uncertainty, and limited causal knowledge characterize their decision-making? A decision-analytic solution is outlined that focuses on risky decisions and accounts for prior states of information and scientific beliefs that can be updated as subsequent information becomes available. As a practical and established approach to causal reasoning and decision-making under risk, inherent to precautionary decision-making, these (Bayesian) methods help decision-makers and stakeholders because they formally account for probabilistic outcomes, new information, and are consistent and replicable. Rational choice of an action from among various alternatives-defined as a choice that makes preferred consequences more likely-requires accounting for costs, benefits and the change in risks associated with each candidate action. Decisions under any form of the precautionary principle reviewed must account for the contingent nature of scientific information, creating a link to the decision-analytic principle of expected value of information (VOI), to show the relevance of new information, relative to the initial ( and smaller) set of data on which the decision was based. We exemplify this seemingly simple situation using risk management of BSE. As an integral aspect of causal analysis under risk, the methods developed in this paper permit the addition of non-linear, hormetic dose-response models to the current set of regulatory defaults such as the linear, non-threshold models. This increase in the number of defaults is an important improvement because most of the variants of the precautionary principle require cost-benefit balancing. Specifically, increasing the set of causal defaults accounts for beneficial effects at very low doses. We also show and conclude that quantitative risk assessment dominates qualitative risk assessment, supporting the extension of the set of default causal models.

Compensation for obesity-induced insulin resistance in dogs: Causal web analysis of the associations of leptin and GLP-1.

Obesity affects aspects of glucose homeostasis such as insulin secretion and insulin sensitivity. Hormones secreted by adipocytes like leptin mediate the metabolic consequences of obesity. Incretin hormones like glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) increase insulin secretion in response to changes in blood glucose concentration and have been proposed to regulate insulin secretion in fasting, overweight dogs. The aim of this study was to examine hormonal mechanisms by which adiposity alters glucose homeostasis, plasma insulin concentration, and insulin sensitivity in spontaneously overweight dogs.

Identification of causal relationships among traits related to drought resistance in Stylosanthes scabra using QTL analysis

Previous studies have shown that a negative relationship exists between transpiration efficiency (TE) and carbon isotope discrimination (Delta) and between TE and specific leaf area (SLA) in Stylosanthes scabra, A glasshouse experiment was conducted to confirm these relationships in an F-2 population and to study the causal nature of these relationships through quantitative trait loci (QTL) analysis, One hundred and twenty F-2 genotypes from a cross between two genotypes within S. scabra were used. Three replications for each genotype were maintained through vegetative propagation, Water stress was imposed by maintaining plants at 40% of field capacity for about 45 d. To facilitate QTL analysis, a genetic linkage map consisting of 151 RAPD markers was developed, Results from this study show that Delta was significantly and negatively correlated with TE and biomass production. Similarly, SLA showed significant negative correlation with TE and biomass production, Most of the QTL for TE and Delta were present on linkage groups 5 and 11. Similarly, QTL for SLA, transpiration and biomass productivity traits were clustered on linkage groups 13 and 24, One unlinked marker was also associated with these traits, There were several markers coincident between different traits, At all the coincident QTL, the direction of QTL effects was consistent with phenotypic data, At the coincident markers between TE and Delta, high alleles of TE were associated with low alleles of Delta. Similarly, low alleles of SLA were associated with high alleles of biomass productivity traits and transpiration. At the coincident markers between trans-4-hydroxy-N-methyl proline (MHP) and relative water content (RWC), low alleles of MHP were associated with high alleles of RWC, This study suggests the causal nature of the relationship between TE and Delta. Phenotypic data and QTL, data show that SLA was more closely associated with biomass production than with TE, This study also shows that a cause-effect relationship may exist between SLA and biomass production.

Analysis of workplace injuries in a dental school environment

Workplace injuries at the University of Queensland Dental School during the period 1992-1994 were assessed to determine their incidence, and the associated indirect costs, causal factors, and appropriate preventive strategies. Overall, dental chairside assistants experienced a higher incidence of injuries than students both on a per worker and per time basis. Of the injuries with a low risk of cross-infection, burns and scalds from sterilizing equipment, and eye injuries in laboratories were the most common. This emphasizes the importance of wearing appropriate protective equipment in areas outside the treatment zone, and the need for signage and education. Common causes of sharps injuries were burs left in handpieces, two-handed needle recapping, and cleaning of probes in the sterilizing room. Changes to techniques and equipment would prevent such incidents. A range of factors which contribute to the calculation of indirect costs following injuries in the dental workplace are identified.

Transformation and transposon mutagenesis of Leifsonia xyli subsp. Xyli, causal organism of Ratoon Stunting Discease of sugarcane

Conditions have been developed for genetic transformation and insertional mutagenesis in Leifsonia xyli subsp. xyli (Lxx), the causal organism of ratoon stunting disease (RSD), one of the most damaging and intractable diseases of sugarcane internationally. Transformation frequencies ranged from 1 to 10 colony forming units (CFU)/mug of plasmid DNA using Clavibacter/Escherichia coli shuttle vectors pCG188, pDM302, and pDM306 and ranged from 50 to 500 CFU/mug using cosmid cloning vectors pLAFR3 and pLAFR5-km. The transformation/transposition frequency was 0 to 70 CFU/mug of DNA, using suicide vectors pUCD623 and pSLTP2021 containing transposable elements Tn4431 and Tn5, respectively. It was necessary to grow Lxx in media containing 0.1% glycine for electroporation and to amplify large plasmids in a dam(-)/dcm(-) E. coli strain and purify the DNA by anion exchange. To keep selection pressure at an optimum, the transformants were grown on nitrocellulose filters (0.2-mum pore size) on media containing the appropriate antibiotics. Transposon Tn4431 containing a promoterless lux operon from Vibrio fischeri and a tetracycline-resistance gene was introduced on the suicide vector pUCD623. All but 1% of the putative transposon mutants produce light, indicating transposition into functional Lxx genes. Southern blot analysis of these transformants indicates predominantly single transposon insertions at unique sites. The cosmid cloning vector pLAFR5-km was stably maintained in Lxx. The development of a transformation and transposon mutagenesis system opens the way for molecular analysis of pathogenicity determinants in Lxx.

Identification of a major locus conferring resistance to powdery mildew (Erysiphe polygoni DC) in mungbean (Vigna radiata L. Wilczek) by QTL analysis

A major locus conferring resistance to the causal organism of powdery mildew, Erysiphe polygoni DC,, in mungbean (Vigna radiata L. Wilczek) was identified using QTL analysis with a population of 147 recombinant inbred individuals. The population was derived from a cross between 'Berken', a highly susceptible variety, and ATF 3640, a highly resistant line. To test for response to powdery mildew, F-7 and F-8 lines were inoculated by dispersing decaying mungbean leaves with residual conidia of E. polygoni amongst the young plants to create an artificial epidemic and assayed in a glasshouse facility. To generate a linkage map, 322 RFLP clones were tested against the two parents and 51 of these were selected to screen the mapping population. The 51 probes generated 52 mapped loci, which were used to construct a linkage map spanning 350 cM of the mungbean genome over 10 linkage groups. Using these markers, a single locus was identified that explained up to a maximum of 86% of the total variation in the resistance response to the pathogen.

Identification of the causal agent of pistachio dieback in Australia

Symptoms associated with pistachio dieback in Australia include decline (little or no current season growth), xylem staining in shoots two or more years old, trunk mu and limb lesions (often covered by black, superficial fungal growth), excessive exudation of resin, dieback and death of the tree. Bacteria belonging to the genus Xanthomonas have been suggested as the causal agent. To confirm the constant association between these bacteria and the disease syndrome, the absence of other pathogens and the identity of the pathogen, we performed a series of isolations and pathogenicity tests. The only microorganism consistently isolated from diseased tissue was a bacterium that produced yellow, mucoid colonies and displayed morphological and cultural characteristics typical of the genus Xanthomonas. Database comparisons of the fatty acid and whole-cell protein profiles of five representative pistachio isolates indicated that they all belonged to X. translucens, but it was not possible to allocate the isolates to pathovar. Pathogenicity tests on cereals and grasses supported this identification. However, Koch's postulates have been only partially fulfilled because not all symptoms associated with pistachio dieback were reproduced on inoculated two-year-old pistachio trees. While discolouration was observed, dieback, excessive resinous exudate and trunk and limb lesions were not produced; expression of these symptoms may be delayed, and long-term monitoring of a small number of inoculated trees is in progress.

Symptom reporting and associations with compensation status, self-awareness, causal attributions, and emotional wellbeing following traumatic brain injury

Individuals seeking compensation following traumatic brain injury (TBI) are often found to report a disproportionately high level of symptoms relative to objective indicators of impairment. Previous studies highlight that level of symptom reporting is also related to self-awareness, causal attribution, and emotional wellbeing. Therefore, the reasons for high symptom reporting in the context of compensation are generally unclear. This study aimed to identify whether self-awareness, causal attribution, and emotional wellbeing are significantly associated with level of symptom reporting after controlling for compensation status. A sample of 54 participants with TBI comprised two groups, namely, claimants (n = 27) and non-claimants (n = 27), who were similar in terms of demographic and neuro-cognitive variables. Participants completed the Symptom Expectancy Checklist, Hospital Anxiety Depression Scale, Awareness Questionnaire and a causal attribution scale. A series of independent t tests and Pearson's correlations identified that a higher level of symptom reporting was associated with the following: seeking compensation, less severe TBI, increased age, greater self-awareness, increased post-injury changes reported by relatives, a higher level of mood symptoms, and a tendency to blame other people. Multivariate analysis identified that after controlling for demographic, injury, and compensation status variables, level of mood symptoms and self-awareness were significantly associated with level of symptom reporting. The findings suggest that mood symptoms and heightened self-awareness are significantly related to high symptom reporting independent of compensation status, thus supporting the need for clinicians to interpret symptom reporting within a biopsychosocial context.

Genetic uniformity of international isolates of Leifsonia xyli subsp xyli, causal agent of ratoon stunting disease of sugarcane

An international collection of the sugarcane ratoon stunting disease pathogen, Leifsonia xyli subsp. xyli, was analysed to assess genetic diversity. DNA fingerprinting using BOX primers was performed on 105 isolates, comprising 65 Australian isolates and an additional 40 isolates from Indonesia (n = 8), Japan (n = 1), USA (n = 3), Brazil (n = 2), Mali (n = 2), Zimbabwe (n = 13), South Africa (n = 9) and Reunion (n = 2). Sixty-two of these isolates were also screened using ERIC primers. No variation was found among any of the isolates. The intergenic spacer (IGS) region of the ribosomal RNA genes from 54 isolates was screened for sequence variation using single-stranded conformational polymorphism (SSCP), but none was observed. Direct sequencing of the IGS from a subset of nine isolates, representing all of the countries sampled in this study, confirmed the results of the SSCP analysis. Likewise, no sequence variation was found in the 16S ribosomal RNA genes of the same subset. Four Colombian isolates from sugarcane, morphologically similar to L. xyli subsp. xyli, were putatively shown to be an undescribed Agrococcus species of unknown pathogenicity. The lack of genetic variation among L. xyli subsp. xyli isolates, independent of time of sampling, cultivar of isolation, or country of origin, suggests the worldwide spread of a single pathogenic clone, and further suggests that sugarcane cultivars resistant to ratoon stunting disease in one area should retain this property in other regions.

Analysis of NDVI in the wet tropics to assess habitat stability

Proceedings of the 11th Australasian Remote Sensing and Photogrammetry Conference

Hydrothermal Stability Analysis of Carbonised Template Molecular Sieve Silica Membranes

For fuel cell CO clean up application, the presence of water with silica membranes greatly reduces their selectivity to CO. We show results of a new functional carbonised template membrane of around 13nm thickness which offered hydrothermal stability with no compromise to the membrane’s H2/CO permselectivity of 16. Lost permeance was also regenerated.

A matching pursuit-based signal complexity measure for the analysis of newborn EEG

This paper presents a new relative measure of signal complexity, referred to here as relative structural complexity, which is based on the matching pursuit (MP) decomposition. By relative, we refer to the fact that this new measure is highly dependent on the decomposition dictionary used by MP. The structural part of the definition points to the fact that this new measure is related to the structure, or composition, of the signal under analysis. After a formal definition, the proposed relative structural complexity measure is used in the analysis of newborn EEG. To do this, firstly, a time-frequency (TF) decomposition dictionary is specifically designed to compactly represent the newborn EEG seizure state using MP. We then show, through the analysis of synthetic and real newborn EEG data, that the relative structural complexity measure can indicate changes in EEG structure as it transitions between the two EEG states; namely seizure and background (non-seizure).

Analysis of Wolbachia protein synthesis in Drosophila in vivo

Intracellular Wolbachia infections are extremely common in arthropods and exert profound control over the reproductive biology of the host. However, very little is known about the underlying molecular mechanisms which mediate these interactions with the host. We examined protein synthesis by Wolbachia in a Drosophila host in vivo by selective metabolic labelling of prokaryotic proteins and subsequent analysis by 1D and 2D gel electrophoresis. Using this method we could identify the major proteins synthesized by Wolbachia in ovaries and testes of flies. Of these proteins the most abundant was of low molecular weight and showed size variation between Wolbachia strains which correlated with the reproductive phenotype they generated in flies. Using the gel systems we employed it was not possible to identify any proteins of Wolbachia origin in the mature sperm cells of infected flies.