Comparing predictions of extinction risk using models and subjective judgement

Models of population dynamics are commonly used to predict risks in ecology, particularly risks of population decline. There is often considerable uncertainty associated with these predictions. However, alternatives to predictions based on population models have not been assessed. We used simulation models of hypothetical species to generate the kinds of data that might typically be available to ecologists and then invited other researchers to predict risks of population declines using these data. The accuracy of the predictions was assessed by comparison with the forecasts of the original model. The researchers used either population models or subjective judgement to make their predictions. Predictions made using models were only slightly more accurate than subjective judgements of risk. However, predictions using models tended to be unbiased, while subjective judgements were biased towards over-estimation. Psychology literature suggests that the bias of subjective judgements is likely to vary somewhat unpredictably among people, depending on their stake in the outcome. This will make subjective predictions more uncertain and less transparent than those based on models. (C) 2004 Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

The tannin-degrading species Streptococcus gallolyticus and Streptococcus caprinus are subjective synonyms

The tannin-degrading species Streptococcus gallolyticus and Streptococcus caprinus have been shown to be subjective synonyms on the basis of their levels of 16S rRNA sequence similarity (98.3%) and DNA-DNA homology (>70%) and the phenotypes of their type strains. S. gallolyticus has nomenclatural priority according to Rule 24b(2) of the International Code of Nomenclature of Bacteria.

Behaviour rating scales for older people with dementia: which is the best for use by nurses?

There is increasing awareness of the importance of disruptive behaviour in people with dementia and the need for rating scales to accurately and reliably measure this behaviour. When rating scales are to be administered by nurses, scale characteristics must take into account the limitations of the nursing role and the nature of the environment in which nurses work. This paper reviews thirty-one rating scales that have been used to measure behaviour in dementia. From this analysis, five scales were identified as suitable for use by nurses when measuring disruptive behaviour in older people with dementia.

Clinical evaluation of the WOMAC 3.0 OA Index in numeric rating scale format using a computerized touch screen version

Background: The Western Ontario and McMaster Universities (WOMAC) Osteoarthritis Index is a previously described self-administered questionnaire covering three domains: pain, stiffness and function. It has been validated in patients with osteoarthritis (OA) of the hip or knee in a paper-based format. Aim: To validate the WOMAC 3.0 using a numerical rating scale in a computerized touch screen format allowing immediate evaluation of the questionnaire. In the computed version cartoons, written and audio instruments were included in order facilitate application. Methods: Fifty patients, demographically balanced, with radiographically proven primary hip or knee OA completed the classical paper and the new computerized WOMAC version. Subjects were randomized either to paper format or computerized format first to balance possible order effects, Results: The intra-class correlation coefficients for pain, stiffness and function values were 0.915, 0.745 and 0.940, respectively. The Spearman correlation coefficients for pain, stiffness and function were 0.88, 0.77 and 0.87, respectively. Conclusion: These data indicate that the computerized WOMAC OA index 3.0 is comparable to the paper WOMAC in all three dimensions. The computerized version would allow physicians to get an immediate result and if present a direct comparison with a previous exam. (C) 2002 OsteoArthritis Research Society International. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

A foliar rating system for comparing the resistance of banana cultivars grown as tissue-cultured plantlets in the laboratory to Fusarium wilt

A foliar rating system was developed to assess the progress of Fusarium wilt ( Panama disease) caused by Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. cubense in seven banana cultivars differing in their resistance to race 1 of the pathogen. Plantlets were transplanted into unamended soil naturally infested with the pathogen, soil amended with urea and soil amended with aged chicken manure. A corm invasion score was also developed to assess the accuracy of the foliar symptom score as an indicator of cultivar resistance. On the basis of foliar symptom scores alone, the response of five of the seven cultivars in the chicken manure treatment corresponded to their known field response. However, the response of the other two cultivars, both susceptible to the pathogen in the field, fell into two categories. One had a high foliar symptom score and a correspondingly high corm invasion score, whereas the other had a low foliar symptom score and a high corm invasion score. Breeders need to be aware of the two categories of susceptible response, if inferior breeding material is to be rejected early on in a breeding program.

Effects of experimentally-induced anterior knee pain on knee joint position sense in healthy individuals

Purpose. The ability to sense the position of limb segments is a highly specialised proprioceptive function important for control of movement. Abnormal knee proprioception has been found in association with several musculoskeletal pathologies but whether nociceptive Stimulation can produce these proprioceptive changes is unclear. This study evaluated the effect of experimentally induced knee pain on knee joint position sense (JPS) in healthy individuals. Study design. Repeated measures, within-subject design. Methods. Knee JPS was tested in 16 individuals with no history of knee pathology under three experimental conditions: baseline control, a distraction task and knee pain induced by injection of hypertonic saline into the infrapatellar fat pad. Knee JPS was measured using active ipsilateral limb matching responses at 20degrees and 60degrees flexion whilst non-weightbearing (NWB) and 20degrees flexion single leg stance. During the tasks, the subjective perception of distraction and severity of pain were measured using 11-point numerical rating scales. Results. Knee JPS was not altered by acute knee pain in any of the positions tested. The distraction task resulted in poorer concentration, greater JPS absolute errors at 20degrees NWB, and greater variability in errors during the WB tests. There were no significant correlations between levels of pain and changes in JPS errors. Changes in JPS with pain and distraction were inversely related to baseline knee JPS variable error in all test positions (r = -0.56 to -0.91) but less related to baseline absolute error. Conclusion. Knee JPS is reduced by an attention-demanding task but not by experimentally induced pain. (C) 2004 Orthopaedic Research Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Alcohol dependence: the impact of cognitive behaviour therapy with or without naltrexone on subjective health status

Objectives: To examine the health-related quality of life of alcohol-dependent patients across a 12-week cognitive behaviour treatment (CBT) program and identify whether the patient selection of the anticraving medication naltrexone further enhanced these outcomes. Method: One hundred and thirty-six consecutive alcohol-dependent subjects voluntarily participated and were offered naltrexone, of which 73 (54%) participants declined medication. A matched design was used. Of the 136 subjects, 86 (43 naltrexone and CBT; 43 CBT only) could be individually matched (blind to outcome measures) for gender, age, prior alcohol detoxification and dependence severity. Measures of health status and mental health wellbeing included the Rand Corporation Medical Outcomes Short Form 36 Health Survey (SF-36) and the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-28). Results: Pre-treatment, all had SF-36 and GHQ-28 scores markedly below national norms. Post-treatment, significant improvement in seven of the eight SF-36 subscales and all of the GHQ-28 subscales occurred, approximating national normative levels. Patients in the CBT + naltrexone group were significantly more likely to have increased days abstinent (p = 0.002) and to complete the program abstinent (p = 0.051). The adjunctive use of naltrexone did not provide additional benefit as reflected in SF-36 and GHQ-28 scores, beyond CBT alone. Conclusions: Patients who completed the CBT-based treatment program reported significant improvements in self-reported health status (SF-36) and wellbeing (GHQ-28). The adjunctive use of naltrexone demonstrated no additional improvement in these measures.

Subjective and predicted sleepiness while driving in young adults

Sleepiness is a significant contributor to car crashes and sleepiness related crashes have higher mortality and morbidity than other crashes. Young adult drivers are at particular risk for sleepiness related car crashes. It has been suggested that this is because young adults are typically sleepier than older adults because of chronic sleep loss, and more often drive at times of increased risk of acute sleepiness. This prospective study aimed to determine the relationship between predicted and perceived sleepiness while driving in 47 young-adult drivers over a 4-week period. Sleepiness levels were predicted by a model incorporating known circadian and sleep factors influencing alertness, and compared to subjective ratings of sleepiness during 25 18 driving episodes. Results suggested that young drivers frequently drive while at risk of crashing, at times of predicted sleepiness (>7% of episodes) and at times they felt themselves to be sleepy (>23% of episodes). A significant relationship was found between perceived and predicted estimates of sleepiness. However, the participants nonetheless drove at these times. The results of this study may help preventative programs to specifically target factors leading to increased sleepiness when driving (particularly time of day), and to focus interventions to stop young adults from driving when they feel sleepy. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Use of the Vector (TM) scaling unit in supportive periodontal therapy: a subjective patient evaluation

Background: Patient discomfort is one reason for poor compliance with supportive periodontal therapy (SPT). The aim of this study was to compare the levels of discomfort during SPT, using the Vector (TM) system and treatment with a conventional ultrasonic scaler. Methods: Forty-six patients with an SPT programme were debrided using both the Vector (TM) system and a conventional piezo-electric scaler (Sirona (TM)) in a split mouth design. A visual analogue scale was used to evaluate of pain scores upon completion of treatment. A verbal response scale(VRS) was used to assess discomfort, vibration and noise associated with the scaling system, as well as the volume and taste of the coolant used by these systems. Results: Patients instrumented with the Vector (TM) system experienced approximately half the amount of pain compared with the conventional ultrasonic scaling system. The VRS showed that the Vector (TM) system caused less discomfort than the conventional ultrasonic scaling system when assessed for pain, vibration, noise and volume of coolant. These findings were all statistically significant. There was, however, no statistically significant difference between the two systems when assessed for taste. Conclusion: During SPT the Vector (TM) system caused reduced discomforting sensations compared with conventional methods and may be useful in improving compliance with SPT programmes.