Design options for sample-based mortality surveillance

Background Reliable information on causes of death is a fundamental component of health development strategies, yet globally only about one-third of countries have access to such information. For countries currently without adequate mortality reporting systems there are useful models other than resource-intensive population-wide medical certification. Sample-based mortality surveillance is one such approach. This paper provides methods for addressing appropriate sample size considerations in relation to mortality surveillance, with particular reference to situations in which prior information on mortality is lacking. Methods The feasibility of model-based approaches for predicting the expected mortality structure and cause composition is demonstrated for populations in which only limited empirical data is available. An algorithm approach is then provided to derive the minimum person-years of observation needed to generate robust estimates for the rarest cause of interest in three hypothetical populations, each representing different levels of health development. Results Modelled life expectancies at birth and cause of death structures were within expected ranges based on published estimates for countries at comparable levels of health development. Total person-years of observation required in each population could be more than halved by limiting the set of age, sex, and cause groups regarded as 'of interest'. Discussion The methods proposed are consistent with the philosophy of establishing priorities across broad clusters of causes for which the public health response implications are similar. The examples provided illustrate the options available when considering the design of mortality surveillance for population health monitoring purposes.

Sample registration of vital events with verbal autopsy: a renewed commitment to measuring and monitoring vital statistics

Registration of births, recording deaths by age, sex and cause, and calculating mortality levels and differentials are fundamental to evidence-based health policy, monitoring and evaluation. Yet few of the countries with the greatest need for these data have functioning systems to produce them despite legislation providing for the establishment and maintenance of vital registration. Sample vital registration (SVR), when applied in conjunction with validated verbal autopsy, procedures and implemented in a nationally representative sample of population clusters represents an affordable, cost-effective, and sustainable short- and medium-term solution to this problem. SVR complements other information sources by producing age-, sex-, and cause-specific mortality data that are more complete and continuous than those currently available. The tools and methods employed in an SVR system, however, are imperfect and require rigorous validation and continuous quality assurance; sampling strategies for SVR are also still evolving. Nonetheless, interest in establishing SVR is rapidly growing in Africa and Asia. Better systems for reporting and recording data on vital events will be sustainable only if developed hand-in-hand with existing health information strategies at the national and district levels; governance structures; and agendas for social research and development monitoring. If the global community wishes to have mortality measurements 5 or 10 years hence, the foundation stones of SVR must be laid today.

Genome scan meta-analysis of schizophrenia and bipolar disorder, part II: Schizophrenia

Schizophrenia is a common disorder with high heritability and a 10-fold increase in risk to siblings of probands. Replication has been inconsistent for reports of significant genetic linkage. To assess evidence for linkage across studies, rank-based genome scan meta-analysis (GSMA) was applied to data from 20 schizophrenia genome scans. Each marker for each scan was assigned to 1 of 120 30-cM bins, with the bins ranked by linkage scores (1 = most significant) and the ranks averaged across studies (R-avg) and then weighted for sample size (rootN[affected cases]). A permutation test was used to compute the probability of observing, by chance, each bin's average rank (P-AvgRnk) or of observing it for a bin with the same place (first, second, etc.) in the order of average ranks in each permutation (P-ord). The GSMA produced significant genomewide evidence for linkage on chromosome 2q (P-AvgRnk

Typing mineral deposits using their grades and tonnages in an artificial neural network

A test of the ability of a probabilistic neural network to classify deposits into types on the basis of deposit tonnage and average Cu, Mo, Ag, Au, Zn, and Pb grades is conducted. The purpose is to examine whether this type of system might serve as a basis for integrating geoscience information available in large mineral databases to classify sites by deposit type. Benefits of proper classification of many sites in large regions are relatively rapid identification of terranes permissive for deposit types and recognition of specific sites perhaps worthy of exploring further. Total tonnages and average grades of 1,137 well-explored deposits identified in published grade and tonnage models representing 13 deposit types were used to train and test the network. Tonnages were transformed by logarithms and grades by square roots to reduce effects of skewness. All values were scaled by subtracting the variable's mean and dividing by its standard deviation. Half of the deposits were selected randomly to be used in training the probabilistic neural network and the other half were used for independent testing. Tests were performed with a probabilistic neural network employing a Gaussian kernel and separate sigma weights for each class (type) and each variable (grade or tonnage). Deposit types were selected to challenge the neural network. For many types, tonnages or average grades are significantly different from other types, but individual deposits may plot in the grade and tonnage space of more than one type. Porphyry Cu, porphyry Cu-Au, and porphyry Cu-Mo types have similar tonnages and relatively small differences in grades. Redbed Cu deposits typically have tonnages that could be confused with porphyry Cu deposits, also contain Cu and, in some situations, Ag. Cyprus and kuroko massive sulfide types have about the same tonnages. Cu, Zn, Ag, and Au grades. Polymetallic vein, sedimentary exhalative Zn-Pb, and Zn-Pb skarn types contain many of the same metals. Sediment-hosted Au, Comstock Au-Ag, and low-sulfide Au-quartz vein types are principally Au deposits with differing amounts of Ag. Given the intent to test the neural network under the most difficult conditions, an overall 75% agreement between the experts and the neural network is considered excellent. Among the largestclassification errors are skarn Zn-Pb and Cyprus massive sulfide deposits classed by the neuralnetwork as kuroko massive sulfides—24 and 63% error respectively. Other large errors are the classification of 92% of porphyry Cu-Mo as porphyry Cu deposits. Most of the larger classification errors involve 25 or fewer training deposits, suggesting that some errors might be the result of small sample size. About 91% of the gold deposit types were classed properly and 98% of porphyry Cu deposits were classes as some type of porphyry Cu deposit. An experienced economic geologist would not make many of the classification errors that were made by the neural network because the geologic settings of deposits would be used to reduce errors. In a separate test, the probabilistic neural network correctly classed 93% of 336 deposits in eight deposit types when trained with presence or absence of 58 minerals and six generalized rock types. The overall success rate of the probabilistic neural network when trained on tonnage and average grades would probably be more than 90% with additional information on the presence of a few rock types.

Genetic assignment methods for the direct, real-time estimation of migration rate: a simulation-based exploration of accuracy and power

Genetic assignment methods use genotype likelihoods to draw inference about where individuals were or were not born, potentially allowing direct, real-time estimates of dispersal. We used simulated data sets to test the power and accuracy of Monte Carlo resampling methods in generating statistical thresholds for identifying F-0 immigrants in populations with ongoing gene flow, and hence for providing direct, real-time estimates of migration rates. The identification of accurate critical values required that resampling methods preserved the linkage disequilibrium deriving from recent generations of immigrants and reflected the sampling variance present in the data set being analysed. A novel Monte Carlo resampling method taking into account these aspects was proposed and its efficiency was evaluated. Power and error were relatively insensitive to the frequency assumed for missing alleles. Power to identify F-0 immigrants was improved by using large sample size (up to about 50 individuals) and by sampling all populations from which migrants may have originated. A combination of plotting genotype likelihoods and calculating mean genotype likelihood ratios (D-LR) appeared to be an effective way to predict whether F-0 immigrants could be identified for a particular pair of populations using a given set of markers.

A brief motivational intervention for substance misuse in recent-onset psychosis

Substance misuse is common in early psychosis, and impacts negatively on outcomes. Little is known about effective interventions for this population. We report a pilot study of brief intervention for substance misuse in early psychosis ( Start Over and Survive: SOS), comparing it with Standard Care(SC). Twenty-five in-patients aged 18 - 35 years with early psychosis and current misuse of non-opioid drugs were allocated randomly to conditions. Substance use and related problems were assessed at baseline, 6 weeks and 3, 6 and 12 months. Final assessments were blind to condition. All 13 SOS participants who proceeded to motivational interviewing reported less substance use at 6 months, compared with 58% (7/12) in SC alone. Effects were well maintained to 12 months. However, more SOS participants lived with a relative or partner, and this also was associated with better outcomes. Engagement remained challenging: 39% (16/41) declined participation and 38% (5/13) in SOS only received rapport building. Further research will increase sample size, and address both engagement and potential confounds.

Serum procalcitonin and C-reactive protein as markers of sepsis and outcome in patients with neurotrauma and subarachnoid haemorrhage

This prospective study evaluated serum procalcitonin (PCT) and C-reactive protein (CRP) as markers for systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS)/sepsis and mortality in patients with traumatic brain injury and subarachnoid haemorrhage. Sixty-two patients were followed for 7 days. Serum PCT and CRP were measured on days 0, 1, 4, 5, 6 and 7. Seventy-seven per cent of patients with traumatic brain injury and 83% with subarachnoid haemorrhage developed SIRS or sepsis (P= 0.75). Baseline PCT and CRP were elevated in 35% and 55% ofpatients respectively (P=0.03). There was a statistically non-significant step-wise increase in serum PCT levels from no SIRS (0.4 +/- 0.6 ng/ml) to SIRS (3.05 +/- 9.3 ng/ml) to sepsis (5.5 +/- 12.5 ng/ml). A similar trend was noted in baseline PCT in patients with mild (0.06 +/- 0.9 ng/ml), moderate (0.8 +/- 0.7 ng/ml) and severe head injury (1.2 +/- 1.9 ng/ml). Such a gradation was not observed with serum CRP There was a non-significant trend towards baseline PCT being a better marker of hospital mortality compared with baseline CRP (ROC-AUC 0.56 vs 0.31 respectively). This is the first prospective study to document the high incidence of SIRS in neurosurgical patients. In our study, serum PCT appeared to correlate with severity of traumatic brain injury and mortality. However, it could not reliably distinguish between SIRS and sepsis in this cohort. This is in pan because baseline PCT elevation seemed to correlate with severity of injury. Only a small proportion ofpatients developed sepsis, thus necessitating a larger sample size to demonstrate the diagnostic usefulness of serum PCT as a marker of sepsis. Further clinical trials with larger sample sizes are required to confirm any potential role of PCT as a sepsis and outcome indicator in patients with head injuries or subarachnoid haemorrhage.

Dietary ecology of the Australian freshwater turtle (Elseya sp.: Chelonia : Chelidae) in the Burnett River, Queensland

The Burnett River snapping turtle (Elseya sp.) from the Burnett, Mary and Fitzroy river systems is an undescribed Australian freshwater turtle, of which very little ecological information is known. This paper describes the dietary ecology of the species in the Burnett River catchment. Stomach and faecal samples were collected from turtles and an index of relative importance was used to rank food items found in stomach samples. This index indicated that algae and aquatic ribbon weed (Vallisneria) were the dominant food items consumed. No difference in diet was found between males and females. Although the sample size was small, diet appeared to vary slightly seasonally, with Elseya sp. selectively feeding on the flower buds of the Chinese elm tree (Celtis chinensis) and the seeds of the blackbean tree (Castanospermum australe) when these food items were seasonally available. Faecal samples suggest that the most ingested foods ( algae and aquatic ribbon weed) were also the most digestible. Although predominantly herbivorous, Elseya sp. was seen to eat carrion once in the wild.

Viscosupplementation for the treatment of osteoarthritis of the knee (Review)

Background Osteoarthritis (OA) is the most prevalent chronic joint disorder worldwide and is associated with significant pain and disability. Objectives To assess the effects of viscosupplementation in the treatment of OA of the knee. The products were hyaluronan and hylan derivatives (Adant, Arthrum H, Artz (Artzal, Supartz), BioHy (Arthrease, Euflexxa, Nuflexxa), Durolane, Fermathron, Go-On, Hyalgan, Hylan G-F 20 (Synvisc Hylan G-F 20), Hyruan, NRD-101 (Suvenyl), Orthovisc, Ostenil, Replasyn, SLM-10, Suplasyn, Synject and Zeel compositum). Search strategy MEDLINE (up to January (week 1) 2006 for update), EMBASE, PREMEDLINE, Current Contents up to July 2003, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) were searched. Specialised journals and reference lists of identified randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and pertinent review articles up to December 2005 were handsearched. Selection criteria RCTs of viscosupplementation for the treatment of people with a diagnosis of OA of the knee were eligible. Single and double-blinded studies, placebo-based and comparative studies were eligible. At least one of the four OMERACT III core set outcome measures had to be reported (Bellamy 1997). Data collection and analysis Each trial was assessed independently by two reviewers for its methodological quality using a validated tool. All data were extracted by one reviewer and verified by a second reviewer. Continuous outcome measures were analysed as weighted mean differences (WMD) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). However, where different scales were used to measure the same outcome, standardized mean differences (SMD) were used. Dichotomous outcomes were analyzed by relative risk (RR). Main results Seventy-six trials with a median quality score of 3 (range 1 to 5) were identified. Follow-up periods varied between day of last injection and eighteen months. Forty trials included comparisons of hyaluronan/hylan and placebo (saline or arthrocentesis), ten trials included comparisons of intra-articular (IA) corticosteroids, six trials included comparisons of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), three trials included comparisons of physical therapy, two trials included comparisons of exercise, two trials included comparisons of arthroscopy, two trials included comparisons of conventional treatment, and fifteen trials included comparisons of other hyaluronans/hylan. The pooled analyses of the effects of viscosupplements against 'placebo' controls generally supported the efficacy of this class of intervention. In these same analyses, differential efficacy effects were observed for different products on different variables and at different timepoints. Of note is the 5 to 13 week post injection period which showed a percent improvement from baseline of 28 to 54% for pain and 9 to 32% for function. In general, comparable efficacy was noted against NSAIDs and longer-term benefits were noted in comparisons against IA corticosteroids. In general, few adverse events were reported in the hyaluronan/hylan trials included in these analyses. Authors' conclusions Based on the aforementioned analyses, viscosupplementation is an effective treatment for OA of the knee with beneficial effects: on pain, function and patient global assessment; and at different post injection periods but especially at the 5 to 13 week post injection period. It is of note that the magnitude of the clinical effect, as expressed by the WMD and standardised mean difference (SMD) from the RevMan 4.2 output, is different for different products, comparisons, timepoints, variables and trial designs. However, there are few randomised head-to-head comparisons of different viscosupplements and readers should be cautious, therefore, in drawing conclusions regarding the relative value of different products. The clinical effect for some products, against placebo, on some variables at some timepoints is in the moderate to large effect-size range. Readers should refer to relevant tables to review specific detail given the heterogeneity in effects across the product class and some discrepancies observed between the RevMan 4.2 analyses and the original publications. Overall, the analyses performed are positive for the HA class and particularly positive for some products with respect to certain variables and timepoints, such as pain on weight bearing at 5 to 13 weeks postinjection. In general, sample-size restrictions preclude any definitive comment on the safety of the HA class of products; however, within the constraints of the trial designs employed no major safety issues were detected. In some analyses viscosupplements were comparable in efficacy to systemic forms of active intervention, with more local reactions but fewer systemic adverse events. In other analyses HA products had more prolonged effects than IA corticosteroids. Overall, the aforementioned analyses support the use of the HA class of products in the treatment of knee OA.

Randomized trial of 8 Gy in 1 versus 20 Gy in 5 fractions of radiotherapy for neuropathic pain due to bone metastases (Trans-Tasman Radiation Oncology Group, TROG 96.05)

Background and purpose: Despite numerous randomized trials investigating radiotherapy (RT) fractionation schedules for painful bone metastases, there are very few data on RT for bone metastases causing pain with a neuropathic component. The Trans-Tasman Radiation Oncology Group undertook a randomized trial comparing the efficacy of a single 8 Gy (8/1) with 20 Gy in 5 fractions (20/5) for this type of pain. Materials and methods: Eligible patients had radiological evidence of bone metastases from a known malignancy with no change in systemic therapy within 6 weeks before or anticipated within 4 weeks after RT, no other metastases along the distribution of the neuropathic pain and no clinical or radiological evidence of cord/cauda equina compression. All patients gave written informed consent. Primary endpoints were pain response within 2 months of commencement of RT and time to treatment failure (TTF). The hypothesis was that 8/1 is at least as effective as 20/5 and the planned sample size was 270 patients. Results: Between February 1996 and December 2002, 272 patients were randomized (8/1:20/5 = 137:135) from 15 centres (Australia 11, New Zealand 3, UK 1). The commonest primary cancers were lung (31%), prostate (29%) and breast (8%); index sites were spine (89%), rib (9%), other (2%); 72% of patients were males and the median age was 67 (range 2989). The median overall survival (95% CI) for all randomized patients was 4.8 mo (4.2-5.7 mo). The intention-to-treat overall response rates (95% Cl) for 8/1 vs 20/5 were 53% (45-62%) vs 61% (53-70%), P = 0.18. Corresponding figures for complete response were 26% (18-34%) vs 27% (19-35%), P = 0.89. The estimated median TTFs (95% CI) were 2.4 mo (2.0-3.3 mo) vs 3.7 mo (3.1-5.9 mo) respectively. The hazard ratio (95% Cl) for the comparison of TTF curves was 1.35 (0.99-1.85), log-rank P = 0.056. There were no statistically significant differences in the rates of re-treatment, cord compression or pathological fracture by arm. Conclusions: 8/1 was not shown to be as effective as 20/5, nor was it statistically significantly worse. Outcomes were generally poorer for 8/1, although the quantitative differences were relatively small. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Capillary break-up rheometry of low-viscosity elastic fluids

We investigate the dynamics of the capillary thinning and break-up process for low viscosity elastic fluids such as dilute polymer solutions. Standard measurements of the evolution of the midpoint diameter of the necking fluid filament are augmented by high speed digital video images of the break up dynamics. We show that the successful operation of a capillary thinning device is governed by three important time scales (which characterize the relative importance of inertial, viscous and elastic processes), and also by two important length scales (which specify the initial sample size and the total stretch imposed on the sample). By optimizing the ranges of these geometric parameters, we are able to measure characteristic time scales for tensile stress growth as small as 1 millisecond for a number of model dilute and semi-dilute solutions of polyethylene oxide (PEO) in water and glycerol. If the final aspect ratio of the sample is too small, or the total axial stretch is too great, measurements are limited, respectively, by inertial oscillations of the liquid bridge or by the development of the well-known beads-on-a-string morphology which disrupt the formation of a uniform necking filament. By considering the magnitudes of the natural time scales associated with viscous flow, elastic stress growth and inertial oscillations it is possible to construct an operability diagram characterizing successful operation of a capillary break-up extensional rheometer. For Newtonian fluids, viscosities greater than approximately 70 mPas are required; however for dilute solutions of high molecular weight polymer, the minimum Viscosity is substantially lower due to the additional elastic stresses arising from molecular extension. For PEO of molecular weight 2.10(6) g/mol, it is possible to measure relaxation times of order 1 ms in dilute polymer solutions with zero-shear-rate viscosities on the order of 2-10 mPas.

Patterns of gene expression in the frontal cortex discriminate alcoholic from non-alcoholic individuals

Alcohol dependence is characterized by tolerance, physical dependence, and craving. The neuroadaptations underlying these effects of chronic alcohol abuse are likely due to altered gene expression. Previous gene expression studies using human post-mortem brain demonstrated that several gene families were altered by alcohol abuse. However, most of these changes in gene expression were small. It is not clear if gene expression profiles have sufficient power to discriminate control from alcoholic individuals and how consistent gene expression changes are when a relatively large sample size is examined. In the present study, microarray analysis (similar to 47 000 elements) was performed on the superior frontal cortex of 27 individual human cases ( 14 well characterized alcoholics and 13 matched controls). A partial least squares statistical procedure was applied to identify genes with altered expression levels in alcoholics. We found that genes involved in myelination, ubiquitination, apoptosis, cell adhesion, neurogenesis, and neural disease showed altered expression levels. Importantly, genes involved in neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer's disease were significantly altered suggesting a link between alcoholism and other neurodegenerative conditions. A total of 27 genes identified in this study were previously shown to be changed by alcohol abuse in previous studies of human post-mortem brain. These results revealed a consistent re-programming of gene expression in alcohol abusers that reliably discriminates alcoholic from non-alcoholic individuals.

The importance of modelling heterogeneity in complex disease: application to NIMH Schizophrenia Genetics Initiative data

As for other complex diseases, linkage analyses of schizophrenia (SZ) have produced evidence for numerous chromosomal regions, with inconsistent results reported across studies. The presence of locus heterogeneity appears likely and may reduce the power of linkage analyses if homogeneity is assumed. In addition, when multiple heterogeneous datasets are pooled, intersample variation in the proportion of linked families ( a) may diminish the power of the pooled sample to detect susceptibility loci, in spite of the larger sample size obtained. We compare the significance of linkage. findings obtained using allele- sharing LOD scores ( LODexp) - which assume homogeneity - and heterogeneity LOD scores ( HLOD) in European American and African American NIMH SZ families. We also pool these two samples and evaluate the relative power of the LODexp and two different heterogeneity statistics. One of these ( HLOD- P) estimates the heterogeneity parameter a only in aggregate data, while the second ( HLOD- S) determines a separately for each sample. In separate and combined data, we show consistently improved performance of HLOD scores over LODexp. Notably, genome-wide significant evidence for linkage is obtained at chromosome 10p in the European American sample using a recessive HLOD score. When the two samples are combined, linkage at the 10p locus also achieves genome-wide significance under HLOD- S, but not HLOD- P. Using HLOD- S, improved evidence for linkage was also obtained for a previously reported region on chromosome 15q. In linkage analyses of complex disease, power may be maximised by routinely modelling locus heterogeneity within individual datasets, even when multiple datasets are combined to form larger samples.

A Comparison of Methodologies from Two Longitudinal Community-Based Randomized Controlled Trials of Similar Interventions in Palliative Care: What Worked and What Did Not

Background: Methodological challenges such as recruitment problems and participant burden make clinical trials in palliative care difficult. In 2001-2004, two community-based randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of case conferences in palliative care settings were independently conducted in Australia-the Queensland Case Conferences trial (QCC) and the Palliative Care Trial (PCT). Design: A structured comparative study of the QCC and PCT was conducted, organized by known practical and organizational barriers to clinical trials in palliative care. Results: Differences in funding dictated study designs and recruitment success; PCT had 6 times the budget of QCC. Sample size attainment. Only PCT achieved the sample size goal. QCC focused on reducing attrition through gatekeeping while PCT maximized participation through detailed recruitment strategies and planned for significant attrition. Testing sustainable interventions. QCC achieved a higher percentage of planned case conferences; the QCC strategy required minimal extra work for clinicians while PCT superimposed conferences on normal work schedules. Minimizing participant burden. Differing strategies of data collection were implemented to reduce participant burden. QCC had short survey instruments. PCT incorporated all data collection into normal clinical nursing encounters. Other. Both studies had acceptable withdrawal rates. Intention-to-treat analyses are planned. Both studies included substudies to validate new outcome measures. Conclusions: Health service interventions in palliative care can be studied using RCTs. Detailed comparative information of strategies, successes and challenges can inform the design of future trials. Key lessons include adequate funding, recruitment focus, sustainable interventions, and mechanisms to minimize participant burden.

The acute effects of mild traumatic brain injury on finger tapping with and without word repetition

This study aimed to investigate the acute effects of mild Traumatic Brain Injury (mTBI) on the performance of a finger tapping and word repetition dual task in order to determine working memory impairment in mTBI Sixty-four (50 male, 14 female) right-handed cases of mTBI and 26 (18 male and 8 female) right-handed cases of orthopaedic injuries were tested within 24 hours of injury. Patients with mTBI completed fewer correct taps in 10 seconds than patients with orthopaedic injuries, and female mTBI cases repeated fewer words. The size of the dual task decrement did not vary between groups. When added to a test battery including the Rapid Screen of Concussion (RSC; Comerford, Geffen, May, Medland T Geffen, 2002) and the Digit Symbol Substitution Test,finger tapping speed accounted for 1% of between groups variance and did not improve classification rates of male participants. While the addition of tapping rate did not improve the sensitivity and specificity of the RSC and DSST to mTBI in males, univariate analysis of motor performance in females indicated. that dual task performance might be diagnostic. An increase in female sample Size is warranted. These results confirm the view that there is a generalized slowing of processing ability following mTBI.