Efficient simulation of a Tandem Jackson Network

The two-node tandem Jackson network serves as a convenient reference model for the analysis and testing of different methodologies and techniques in rare event simulation. In this paper we consider a new approach to efficiently estimate the probability that the content of the second buffer exceeds some high level L before it becomes empty, starting from a given state. The approach is based on a Markov additive process representation of the buffer processes, leading to an exponential change of measure to be used in an importance sampling procedure. Unlike changes of measures proposed and studied in recent literature, the one derived here is a function of the content of the first buffer. We prove that when the first buffer is finite, this method yields asymptotically efficient simulation for any set of arrival and service rates. In fact, the relative error is bounded independent of the level L; a new result which is not established for any other known method. When the first buffer is infinite, we propose a natural extension of the exponential change of measure for the finite buffer case. In this case, the relative error is shown to be bounded (independent of L) only when the second server is the bottleneck; a result which is known to hold for some other methods derived through large deviations analysis. When the first server is the bottleneck, experimental results using our method seem to suggest that the relative error is bounded linearly in L.

Continental extension: From core complexes to rigid block faulting

Extension of overthickened continental crust is commonly characterized by an early core complex stage of extension followed by a later stage of crustal-scale rigid block faulting. These two stages are clearly recognized during the extensional destruction of the Alpine orogen in northeast Corsica, where rigid block faulting overprinting core complex formation eventually led to crustal separation and the formation of a new oceanic backarc basin (the Ligurian Sea). Here we investigate the geodynamic evolution of continental extension by using a novel, fully coupled thermomechanical numerical model of the continental crust. We consider that the dynamic evolution is governed by fault weakening, which is generated by the evolution of the natural-state variables (i.e., pressure, deviatoric stress, temperature, and strain rate) and their associated energy fluxes. Our results show the appearance of a detachment layer that controls the initial separation of the brittle crust on characteristic listric faults, and a core complex formation that is exhuming strongly deformed rocks of the detachment zone and relatively undeformed crustal cores. This process is followed by a transitional period, characterized by an apparent tectonic quiescence, in which deformation is not localized and energy stored in the upper crust is transferred downward and causes self-organized mobilization of the lower crust. Eventually, the entire crust ruptures on major crosscutting faults, shifting the tectonic regime from core complex formation to wholesale rigid block faulting.

Rapid genotyping of loci involved in antifolate drug resistance in Plasmodium falciparum by primer extension

Current methods used to genotype point mutations in Plasmodium falciparum genes involved in resistance to antifolate drugs include restriction digestion of PCR products, allele-specific amplification or sequencing. Here we demonstrate that known point mutations in dihydrofolate reductase and dihydropteroate synthase can be scored quickly and accurately by single-nucleotide primer extension and detection of florescent products on a capillary sequencer. We use this method to genotype parasites in natural infections from the Thai-Myanmar border. This approach could greatly simplify large-scale screening of resistance mutations of the type required for evaluating and updating antimalarial drug treatment policies. The method can be easily adapted to other P. falciparum genes and will greatly simplify scoring of point mutations in this and other parasitic organisms. © 2002 Australian Society for Parasitology Inc. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predator-induced phenotypic plasticity in tadpoles: extension or innovation?

Phenotypic plasticity, the ability of a trait to change as a function of the environment, is central to many ideas in evolutionary biology. A special case of phenotypic plasticity observed in many organisms is mediated by their natural predators. Here, we used a predator-prey system of dragonfly larvae and tadpoles to determine if predator-mediated phenotypic plasticity provides a novel way of surviving in the presence of predators (an innovation) or if it represents a simple extension of the way noninduced tadpoles survive predation. Tadpoles of Limnodynastes peronii were raised in the presence and absence of predation, which then entered a survival experiment. Induced morphological traits, primarily tail height and tail muscle height, were found to be under selection, indicating that predator-mediated phenotypic plasticity may be adaptive. Although predator-induced animals survived better, the multivariate linear selection gradients were similar between the two tadpole groups, suggesting that predator-mediated phenotypic plasticity is an extension of existing survival strategies. In addition, nonlinear selection gradients indicated a cost of predator-induced plasticity that may limit the ability of phenotypic plasticity to enhance survival in the presence of predators.

Replacement of the natural Wolbachia symbiont of Drosophila simulans with a mosquito counterpart

Inherited rickettsial symbionts of the genus Wolbachia occur commonly in arthropods and have been implicated in the expression of parthenogenesis, feminization and cytoplasmic incompatibility phenomena in their respective hosts. Here we use purified Wolbachia from the Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, to replace the natural infection of Drosophila simulans by means of embryonic microinjection techniques. The transferred Wolbachia infection behaves like a natural Drosophila infection with regard to its inheritance, cytoskeleton interactions and ability to induce incompatibility when crossed with uninfected flies. The transinfected flies are bidirectionally incompatible with all other naturally infected strains of Drosophila simulans, however, and as such represent a unique crossing type. The successful transfer of this symbiont between distantly related hosts suggests that it may be possible to introduce this agent experimentally into arthropod species of medical and agricultural importance in order to manipulate natural populations genetically.

Combining GIS and Expert Opinion to Model Landscapes for a Smallholder Forest Extension Program in Leyte, the Philippines

A Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to model datasets of Leyte Island, the Philippines, to identify land which was suitable for a forest extension program on the island. The datasets were modelled to provide maps of the distance of land from cities and towns, land which was a suitable elevation and slope for smallholder forestry and land of various soil types. An expert group was used to assign numeric site suitabilities to the soil types and maps of site suitability were used to assist the selection of municipalities for the provision of extension assistance to smallholders. Modelling of the datasets was facilitated by recent developments of the ArcGIS® suite of computer programs and derivation of elevation and slope was assisted by the availability of digital elevation models (DEM) produced by the Shuttle Radar Topography (SRTM) mission. The usefulness of GIS software as a decision support tool for small-scale forestry extension programs is discussed.

Finite element analysis of steady-state natural convection problems in fluid-saturated porous media heated from below

In this paper, a progressive asymptotic approach procedure is presented for solving the steady-state Horton-Rogers-Lapwood problem in a fluid-saturated porous medium. The Horton-Rogers-Lapwood problem possesses a bifurcation and, therefore, makes the direct use of conventional finite element methods difficult. Even if the Rayleigh number is high enough to drive the occurrence of natural convection in a fluid-saturated porous medium, the conventional methods will often produce a trivial non-convective solution. This difficulty can be overcome using the progressive asymptotic approach procedure associated with the finite element method. The method considers a series of modified Horton-Rogers-Lapwood problems in which gravity is assumed to tilt a small angle away from vertical. The main idea behind the progressive asymptotic approach procedure is that through solving a sequence of such modified problems with decreasing tilt, an accurate non-zero velocity solution to the Horton-Rogers-Lapwood problem can be obtained. This solution provides a very good initial prediction for the solution to the original Horton-Rogers-Lapwood problem so that the non-zero velocity solution can be successfully obtained when the tilted angle is set to zero. Comparison of numerical solutions with analytical ones to a benchmark problem of any rectangular geometry has demonstrated the usefulness of the present progressive asymptotic approach procedure. Finally, the procedure has been used to investigate the effect of basin shapes on natural convection of pore-fluid in a porous medium. (C) 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Cost-benefit analysis of alternative forms of hedgerow intercropping in the Philippine uplands

Considerable resources have been expended promoting hedgerow intercropping with shrub legumes to farmers in the Philippine uplands. Despite the resources committed to research and extension, persistent adoption by farmers has been limited to low cost versions of the technology including natural vegetation and grass strips. In this paper, cost-benefit analysis is used to compare the economic returns from traditional open-field maize farming with returns from intercropping maize between leguminous shrub hedgerows, natural vegetation strips and grass strips. An erosion/productivity model, Soil Changes Under Agroforestry, was used to predict the effect of erosion on maize yields. Key informant surveys with experienced maize farmers were used to derive production budgets for the alternative farming methods. The economic incentives revealed by the cost-benefit analysis help to explain the adoption of maize farming methods in the Philippine uplands. Open-field farming without hedgerows has been by far the most popular method of maize production, often with two or more fields cropped in rotation. There is little persistent adoption of hedgerow intercropping with shrub legumes because sustained maize yields are not realised rapidly enough to compensate farmers for establishment and maintenance costs. Natural vegetation and grass strips are more attractive to farmers because of lower establishment costs, and provide intermediate steps to adoption. Rural finance, commodity pricing and agrarian reform policies influence the incentives for maize farmers in the Philippine uplands to adopt and maintain hedgerow intercropping.

From sabotage to camouflage: viral evasion of cytotoxic T lymphocyte and natural killer cell-mediated immunity

The outcome of a virus infection is strongly influenced by interactions between host immune defences and virus 'anti-defence' mechanisms. For many viruses, their continued survival depends on, the speed of their attach: their capacity to replicate and transmit to uninfected hosts prior to their elimination by an effective immune response. In contrast, the success of persistent viruses lies in their capacity for immunological subterfuge: the evasion of host defence mechanisms by either mutation (covered elsewhere in this issue, by Gould and Bangham, pp. 321-328) or interference with the action of host cellular proteins that are important components of the immune response. This review will focus on the strategies employed by persistent viruses against two formidable host defences against virus infection: the CD8+ cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL) and natural killer (NK) cell responses.

A note on extension variances in IR2

Matheron (1971) proposed an approximation of the extension variance in IR. We propose in this note an extension of this formula in IR2, based on a MacLaurin formula. Its application is shown in an example, the estimation of the maximum depressional storage of a soil surface.