Study of n-fold Weibull competing risk model

This paper deals with an n-fold Weibull competing risk model. A characterisation of the WPP plot is given along with estimation of model parameters when modelling a given data set. These are illustrated through two examples. A study of the different possible shapes for the density and failure rate functions is also presented. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Long-term risk stratification for survivors of acute coronary syndromes - Results from the long-term intervention with pravastatin in ischemic disease (LIPID) study

OBJECTIVES We developed a prognostic strategy for quantifying the long-term risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) events in survivors of acute coronary syndromes (ACS). BACKGROUND Strategies for quantifying long-term risk of CHD events have generally been confined to primary prevention settings. The Long-term Intervention with Pravastatin in Ischemic Disease (LIPID) study, which demonstrated that pravastatin reduces CHD events in ACS survivors with a broad range of cholesterol levels, enabled assessment of long-term prognosis in a secondary prevention setting. METHODS Based on outcomes in 8,557 patients in the LIPID study, a multivariate risk factor model was developed for prediction of CHD death or nonfatal myocardial infarction. Prognostic indexes were developed based on the model, and low-, medium-, high- and very high-risk groups were defined by categorizing the prognostic indexes. RESULTS In addition to pravastatin treatment, the independently significant risk factors included: total and high density lipoprotein cholesterol, age, gender, smoking status, qualifying ACS, prior coronary revascularization, diabetes mellitus, hypertension and prior stroke. Pravastatin reduced coronary event rates in each risk level, and the relative risk reduction did not vary significantly between risk levels. The predicted five-year coronary event rates ranged from 5% to 19% for those assigned pravastatin and from 6.4% to 23.6% fur those assigned placebo. CONCLUSIONS Long-term prognosis of ACS survivors varied substantially according to conventional risk factor profile. Pravastatin reduced coronary risk within all risk levels; however, absolute risk remained high in treated patients with unfavorable profiles. Our risk stratification strategy enables identification of ACS survivors who remain at very high risk despite statin therapy. CT Am Coil Cardiol 2001;38:56-63) (C) 2001 by the American College of Cardiology.

Screening for abdominal aortic aneurysm: lessons from a population-based study

Objectives: To test the acceptability of screening and to identify modifiable risk factors for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) in men. Design: A trial of ultrasound screening for AAA in a population-based random sample of men aged 65-83 years, and a cross-sectional case-control comparison of men in the same sample. Participants: 12203 men who had an ultrasound examination of their abdominal aorta, and completed a questionnaire covering demographic, behavioural and medical factors. Main outcome measures: Prevalence of AAA, and independent associations of AAA with demographic, medical and lifestyle factors. Results: Invitations to screening produced a corrected response of 70.5%. The prevalence of AAAs (> 30 mm) rose from 4.8% in men aged 65-69 years to 10.8% in those aged 80-83 years. The overall prevalence of large (> 50 mm) aneurysms was 0.69%. In a multivariate logistic model Mediterranean-born men had a 40% lower risk of AAA (> 30 mm) compared with men born in Australia (odds ratio [OR], 0.6; 95% CI, 0.4-0.8), while ex-smokers had a significantly increased risk of AAA (OR, 2.3; 95% CI, 1.9-2.8), and current smokers had even higher risks. AAA was significantly associated with established coronary and peripheral arterial disease and a waist:hip ratio greater than 0.9; men who regularly undertook vigorous exercise had a lower risk (OR, 0.8; 95% CI, 0.7-1.0). Conclusion: Ultrasound screening for AAA is acceptable to men in the likely target population. AAA shares some but not all of the risk factors for occlusive vascular disease, but the scope for primary prevention of AAA in later life is limited.

Risk stratification of patients with chronic kidney disease: Results of screening strategies incorporating clinical risk scoring and dobutamine stress echocardiography

Background Cardiac disease is the principal cause of death in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Ischemia at dobutamine stress echocardiography (DSE) is associated with adverse events in these patients. We sought the efficacy of combining clinical risk evaluation with DSE. Methods We allocated 244 patients with CKD (mean age 54 years, 140 men, 169 dialysis-dependent at baseline) into low- and high-risk groups based on two disease-specific scores and the Framingham risk model. All underwent DSE and were further stratified according to DSE results. Patients were followed over 20 +/- 14 months for events (death, myocardial infarction, acute coronary syndrome). Results There were 49 deaths and 32 cardiac events. Using the different clinical scores, allocation of high risk varied from 34% to 79% of patients, and 39% to 50% of high-risk patients had an abnormal DSE. In the high-risk groups, depending on the clinical score chosen, 25% to 44% with an abnormal DSE had a cardiac event, compared with 8% to 22% with a.normal DSE. Cardiac events occurred in 2.0%, 3.1 %, and 9.7% of the low-risk patients, using the two disease-specific and Framingham scores, respectively, and DSE results did not add to risk evaluation in this subgroup. Independent DSE predictors of cardiac events were a lower resting diastolic blood pressure, angina during the test, and the combination of ischemia with resting left ventricular dysfunction. Conclusion In CKD patients, high-risk findings by DSE can predict outcome. A stepwise strategy of combining clinical risk scores with DSE for CAD screening in CKD reduces the number of tests required and identifies a high-risk subgroup among whom DSE results more effectively stratify high and low risk.

The potential for a selective screening strategy for abdominal aortic aneurysm

Objectives-To investigate the feasibility of selective screening for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) based on identification of a target group of manageable size defined by risk factors for AAA. Setting-Male residents of Perth, Western Australia, aged 65-83 years, who participated in a randomised controlled trial of ultrasound screening for AAA. Methods-Eligible men were identified from the electoral roll and invited to attend a screening clinic. Those who attended completed a questionnaire, had a limited physical examination, and underwent an ultrasound examination to identify the maximum diameter of the infrarenal aorta. Data on risk factors collected from the first 8995 men seen were used to calculate a multivariate risk score for the remaining 2755 men who were screened. Gentiles of the risk score were used to define potential target groups for screening and the sensitivity and specificity of each of these selective screening strategies were calculated. We repeated the calculation separately for AAAs of at least 30 mm, 40 mm, and 50 mm in diameter. Results-We found that screening half of the male population aged 65-83 years would find approximately 75% of AAAs, regardless of their size, whereas screening only current smokers in this population would find approximately 20% of AAAs. Conclusions-Selective screening for AAA using easily recognisable risk factors is feasible but is not worthwhile as approximately 25% of clinically significant cases would be missed.

Models involving two inverse Weibull distributions

In this paper, we look at three models (mixture, competing risk and multiplicative) involving two inverse Weibull distributions. We study the shapes of the density and failure-rate functions and discuss graphical methods to determine if a given data set can be modelled by one of these models. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Class attainment among British men - A multivariate extension of the CASMIN model of intergenerational class mobility

The CASMIN Project is arguably the most influential contemporary study of class mobility in the world. However, CASMIN results with respect to weak vertical status effects on class mobility have been extensively criticized. Drawing on arguments about how to model vertical mobility, Hout and Hauser (1992) show that class mobility is strongly determined by vertical socioeconomic differences. This paper extends these arguments by estimating the CASMIN model while explicitly controlling for individual determinants of socioeconomic attainment. Using the 1972 Oxford Mobility Data and the 1979 and 1983 British Election Studies, the paper employs mixed legit models to show how individual socioeconomic factors and categorical differences between classes shape intergenerational mobility. The findings highlight the multidimensionality of class mobility and its irreducibility to vertical movement up and down a stratification hierarchy.

A model for predicting the future incidence of coronary heart disease within percentiles of coronary heart disease risk

Background We present a method (The CHD Prevention Model) for modelling the incidence of fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease (CHD) within various CHD risk percentiles of an adult population. The model provides a relatively simple tool for lifetime risk prediction for subgroups within a population. It allows an estimation of the absolute primary CHD risk in different populations and will help identify subgroups of the adult population where primary CHD prevention is most appropriate and cost-effective. Methods The CHD risk distribution within the Australian population was modelled, based on the prevalence of CHD risk, individual estimates of integrated CHD risk, and current CHD mortality rates. Predicted incidence of first fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction within CHD risk strata of the Australian population was determined. Results Approximately 25% of CHD deaths were predicted to occur amongst those in the top 10 percentiles of integrated CHD risk, regardless of age group or gender. It was found that while all causes survival did not differ markedly between percentiles of CHD risk before the ages of around 50-60, event-free survival began visibly to differ about 5 years earlier. Conclusions The CHD Prevention Model provides a means of predicting future CHD incidence amongst various strata of integrated CHD risk within an adult population. It has significant application both in individual risk counselling and in the identification of subgroups of the population where drug therapy to reduce CHD risk is most cost-effective. J Cardiovasc Risk 8:31-37 (C) 2001 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

Long-term survivor mixture model with random effects: application to a multi-centre clinical trial of carcinoma

A mixture model incorporating long-term survivors has been adopted in the field of biostatistics where some individuals may never experience the failure event under study. The surviving fractions may be considered as cured. In most applications, the survival times are assumed to be independent. However, when the survival data are obtained from a multi-centre clinical trial, it is conceived that the environ mental conditions and facilities shared within clinic affects the proportion cured as well as the failure risk for the uncured individuals. It necessitates a long-term survivor mixture model with random effects. In this paper, the long-term survivor mixture model is extended for the analysis of multivariate failure time data using the generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) approach. The proposed model is applied to analyse a numerical data set from a multi-centre clinical trial of carcinoma as an illustration. Some simulation experiments are performed to assess the applicability of the model based on the average biases of the estimates formed. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Melanoma in adolescents: A case-control study of risk factors in Queensland, Australia

The incidence of melanoma increases markedly in the second decade of life but almost nothing is known of the causes of melanoma in this age group. We report on the first population-based case-control study of risk factors for melanoma in adolescents (15-19 years). Data were collected through personal interviews with cases, controls and parents. A single examiner conducted full-body nevus counts and blood samples were collected from cases for analysis of the CDKN2A melanoma predisposition gene. A total of 201 (80%) of the 250 adolescents with melanoma diagnosed between 1987 and 1994 and registered with the Queensland Cancer Registry and 205 (79%) of 258 age-, gender- and location-matched controls who were contacted agreed to participate. The strongest risk factor associated with melanoma in adolescents in a multivariate model was the presence of more than 100 nevi 2 mm or more in diameter (odds ratio [OR] = 46.5, 95% confidence interval [Cl] = 11.4-190.8). Other risk factors were red hair (OR = 5.4, 95%Cl = 1.0-28.4); blue eyes (OR = 4.5, 95%Cl = 1.5- 13.6); inability to tan after prolonged sun exposure (OR = 4.7, 95%Cl = 0.9-24.6); heavy facial freckling (OR = 3.2, 95% Cl = 0.9-12.3); and family history of melanoma (OR = 4.0, 95%Cl = 0.8-18.9). Only 2 of 147 cases tested had germline variants or mutations in CDKN2A. There was no association with sunscreen use overall, however, never/rare use of sunscreen at home under the age of 5 years was associated with increased risk (OR = 2.2, 95%Cl = 0.7-7.1). There was no difference between cases and controls in cumulative sun exposure in this high-exposure environment. Factors indicating genetic susceptibility to melanoma, in particular, the propensity to develop nevi and freckles, red hair, blue eyes, inability to tan and a family history of the disease are the primary determinants of melanoma among adolescents in this high solar radiation environment. Lack of association with reported sun exposure is consistent with the high genetic susceptibility in this group. (C) 2002 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Risk factors for development of delirium among oncology patients

To determine the occurrence of delirium in oncology inpatients and to identify and evaluate admission characteristics associated with the development of delirium during inpatient admission, a prospective observational study was conducted of H 3 patients with a total of 145 admissions with histological diagnosis of cancer admitted to the oncology unit over a period of ten weeks. At the point of inpatient admission, all patients were assessed for the presence of potential risk factors for development of delirium. During the index admission patients were assessed daily for the presence of delirium using the Confusion Assessment Method. Delirium was confirmed by clinician assessment. Delirium developed in 26 of 145 admissions (18%) and 32 episodes of delirium were recorded with 6 patients having 2 episodes of delirium during the index admission. Delirium occurred on average 3.3 days into the admission. The average duration of an episode of delirium was 2.1 day. Four patients with delirium (15%) died. All other cases of delirium were reversed. Factors significantly associated with development of delirium on multivariate analysis were: advanced age, cognitive impairment, low albumin level, bone metastases, and the presence of hematological malignancy. Hospital inpatient admission was significantly longer in delirium group (mean: 8.8 days vs 4.5 days in nondelirium group, P