Fluctuations in heroin purity and the incidence of fatal heroin overdose

In order to determine the role played by heroin purity in fatal heroin overdoses, time series analyses were conducted on the purity of street heroin seizures in south western Sydney and overdose fatalities in that region. A total of 322 heroin samples were analysed in fortnightly periods between February 1993 to January 1995. A total of 61 overdose deaths occurred in the region in the study period. Cross correlation plots revealed a significant correlation of 0.57 at time lag zero between mean purity of heroin samples per fortnight and number of overdose fatalities. Similarly, there was a significant correlation of 0.50 at time lag zero between the highest heroin purity per fortnight and number of overdose fatalities. The correlation between range of heroin purity and number of deaths per fortnight was 0.40. A simultaneous multiple regression on scores adjusted for first order correlation indicated both the mean level of heroin purity and the range of heroin purity were independent predictors of the number of deaths per fortnight. The results indicate that the occurrence of overdose fatalities was moderately associated with both the average heroin purity and the range of heroin purity over the study period. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A model for predicting the future incidence of coronary heart disease within percentiles of coronary heart disease risk

Background We present a method (The CHD Prevention Model) for modelling the incidence of fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease (CHD) within various CHD risk percentiles of an adult population. The model provides a relatively simple tool for lifetime risk prediction for subgroups within a population. It allows an estimation of the absolute primary CHD risk in different populations and will help identify subgroups of the adult population where primary CHD prevention is most appropriate and cost-effective. Methods The CHD risk distribution within the Australian population was modelled, based on the prevalence of CHD risk, individual estimates of integrated CHD risk, and current CHD mortality rates. Predicted incidence of first fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction within CHD risk strata of the Australian population was determined. Results Approximately 25% of CHD deaths were predicted to occur amongst those in the top 10 percentiles of integrated CHD risk, regardless of age group or gender. It was found that while all causes survival did not differ markedly between percentiles of CHD risk before the ages of around 50-60, event-free survival began visibly to differ about 5 years earlier. Conclusions The CHD Prevention Model provides a means of predicting future CHD incidence amongst various strata of integrated CHD risk within an adult population. It has significant application both in individual risk counselling and in the identification of subgroups of the population where drug therapy to reduce CHD risk is most cost-effective. J Cardiovasc Risk 8:31-37 (C) 2001 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

The incidence of schizophrenia: A systematic review

There has been a debate on whether or not the incidence of schizophrenia varies across time and place. In order to optimise the evidence upon which this debate is based, we have undertaken a systematicsystematic review of the literature. In this paper we provide an overview of the methods of the review and a preliminary analysis of the studies identified to date. Electronic databases (Medline, Psychlnfo, Embase, LILAC) were systematically searched for articles published between January 1965 and December 2001. The search terms were: (schizo* OR psycho*)AND (incidence OR prevalence). References were also identified from review articles, reference list and by writing to authors. To date we have identified 137 papers drawn from 33 nations. 37 papers in language other than English await translation. The currently included papers have generated 1413 different items of rate information data. In order to analyze these data we have undertaken several sequential filters in order to identify (a) non-overlapping data, (b) birth cohort study versus noncohort studies, (c) overall and sex-specific rates, (d) diagnostic criteria, (e) age ranges, (f) epoch of study, and (g) data on migrant or other special interest groups. In addition, we will examine the impact of urbanicity of site, age and/or sex standardization, and quality score on the incidence rates. The various discrete incidence rates will be presented graphically and the impact of various filters on these rates will be inspected using meta-analytic techniques. The use of meta-analysis may help elucidate the epidemiological landscape with respect to the incidence of schizophrenia and aid in the generation of new hypothesis. Acknowledgements: The Stanley Medical Research Institute supported project

Falling incidence of amputations for peripheral occlusive arterial disease in western Australia between 1980 and 1992

Objectives: To assess temporal trends in the incidence of surgical procedures for peripheral occlusive arterial disease (POAD) and associated changes in outcome as measured by the rate of major lower limb amputations for POAD. Design: a retrospective descriptive population-based study was conducted of the geographically isolated population of Western Austrialia between 1980 and 1992. Methods: Vascular procedures with an accompanying diagnosis of POAD were identified in a computerised system of name-identified records of all discharges from hospital for the population. These procedures were detected using relevant codes from the International Classification of Disease and Procedures. Records of angioplasty and thrombolysis procedures were augmented by searches of hospital-based registers of invasive radiological procedures. The data for the remaining procedures were validated by a review of a random sample of medical records. Results: over the 13 years of the study, rates of major amputations fell significantly for in non-amputation vascular surgery for individuals under the age of 60. In addition, rather than an overall rise in surgery there was shift away from sympathectomy and thromboendarterectomy to angioplasty and bypass surgery. Furthermore, an increasing proportion of all major amputations had a prior attempt at arterial reconstruction. Conclusion: These observations suggest the decrease in major amputations for POAD may reflect a fall in the incidence of POAD, possibly aided by move effective surgery, rather than increased rates of vascular surgery.

Cigarette smoking and the incidence of Parkinson's disease in two prospective studies

An inverse association between cigarette smoking and idiopathic Parkinson's disease has been reported in several retrospective studies, but prospective evidence is available only for men. We assessed the association between the incidence of Parkinson's disease and smoking in two large prospective cohort studies comprising men and women. New cases of Parkinson's disease were identified in the Nurses' Health Study for 1976-1996, and in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study for 1986-1996. Smoking history was assessed at baseline and updated on subsequent biennial questionnaires. In women, the age-adjusted rate ratios (95% confidence intervals) for Parkinson's disease relative to never-smokers were 0.7 (0.5, 1.0) for past smokers, and 0.4 (0.2, 0.7) for current smokers. In men, the age-adjusted rate ratios for Parkinson's disease relative to never-smokers were 0.5 (0.4, 0.7) for past smokers, and 0.3 (0.1, 0.8) for current smokers. In both cohorts, the strength of the association decreased with time since quitting (among past smokers), increased with number of cigarettes per day (among current smokers), and increased with pack-years of smoking. These prospective findings confirm that an inverse association between smoking and the incidence of Parkinson's disease exists in both men and women.

Total Daily Energy Expenditure and Incidence of Upper Respiratory Tract Infection Symptoms in Young Females

A group of 31 young females, tennis players and non-athletes, aged 16 2 years (range: 14 - 21 years), with a wide range of physical activity levels was used to investigate the relationship between total daily energy expenditure and the incidence of upper respiratory tract infection symptoms. Methods: During a 12 week winter period, habitual daily activity (excluding training) was evaluated using a 3-day physical activity record. Tennis training was quantified using a validated method of estimating energy expenditure during play. Total daily energy expenditure was calculated from the sum of daily training plus mean habitual daily activity energy expenditures. The total group of subjects was divided in quartiles for total daily energy expenditure. A validated symptom checklist was used to assess the incidence and severity of upper respiratory tract infections, on a daily basis. Results: The girls in the highest quartile of total daily energy expenditure (greater than or equal to 17322 kJ/day) and in the lowest quartile (less than or equal to 10 047 kJ/day) had the greatest incidence of URTI symptomatology, although the moderately active girls in quartile three (12290-16410 kJ/day) presented the lowest incidence. Significant differences in number of upper respiratory tract infection episodes, sickness days and symptomatology index were found between quartiles three and one (p < 0.05) and quartiles three and four (p < 0.01). Peak severity of symptoms was significantly lower in quartile three compared with all other quartiles (p < 0.05).

Tennis, incidence of URTI and salivary IgA

Tennis played at an elite level requires intensive training characterized by repeated bouts of brief intermittent high intensity exercise over relatively long periods of time (1 - 3 h or more). Competition can place additional stress on players. The purpose of this study was to investigate the temporal association between specific components of tennis training and competition, the incidence of upper respiratory tract infections (URT1), and salivary IgA, in a cohort of seventeen elite female tennis players. Timed, whole unstimulated saliva samples were collected before and after selected 1-h training sessions at 2 weekly intervals, over 12 weeks. Salivary IgA concentration was measured by ELISA and IgA secretion rate calculated (mug IgA x ml(-1) x ml saliva x min(-1)). Players reported URTI symptoms and recorded training and competition in daily logs. Data analysis showed that higher incidence of URTI was significantly associated with increased training duration and load, and competition level, on a weekly basis. Salivary IgA secretion rate (S-IgA) dropped significantly after 1 hour of tennis play. Over the 12-week period, pre-exercise salivary IgA concentration and secretion rate were directly associated with the amount of training undertaken during the previous day and week (p < 0.05). However, the decline in S-IgA after 1 h of intense tennis play was also positively related to the duration and load of training undertaken during the previous day and week (p < 0.05). Although exercise-induced suppression of salivary IgA may be a risk factor, it could not accurately predict the occurrence of URTI in this cohort of athletes.

Whole genome analysis reveals a high incidence of non-optimal codons in secretory signal sequences of Escherichia coli

Translational pausing may occur due to a number of mechanisms, including the presence of non-optimal codons, and it is thought to play a role in the folding of specific polypeptide domains during translation and in the facilitation of signal peptide recognition during see-dependent protein targeting. In this whole genome analysis of Escherichia coli we have found that non-optimal codons in the signal peptide-encoding sequences of secretory genes are overrepresented relative to the mature portions of these genes; this is in addition to their overrepresentation in the 5'-regions of genes encoding non-secretory proteins. We also find increased non-optimal codon usage at the 3' ends of most E. coli genes, in both non-secretory and secretory sequences. Whereas presumptive translational pausing at the 5' and 3' ends of E. coli messenger RNAs may clearly have a general role in translation, we suggest that it also has a specific role in sec-dependent protein export, possibly in facilitating signal peptide recognition. This finding may have important implications for our understanding of how the majority of non-cytoplasmic proteins are targeted, a process that is essential to all biological cells. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Adult-population incidence of severe sepsis in Australian and New Zealand intensive care units

Objective. To determine the population incidence and outcome of severe sepsis occurring in adult patients treated in Australian and New Zealand intensive care units (ICUs), and compare with recent retrospective estimates from the USA and UK. Design. Inception cohort study. Setting. Twenty-three closed multi-disciplinary ICUs of 21 hospitals (16 tertiary and 5 university affiliated) in Australia and New Zealand. Patients. A total of 5878 consecutive ICU admission episodes. Measurements and results. Main outcome measures were population-based incidence of severe sepsis, mortality at ICU discharge, mortality at 28 days after onset of severe sepsis, and mortality at hospital discharge. A total of 691 patients, 11.8 (95% confidence intervals 10.9-12.6) per 100 ICU admissions, were diagnosed with 752 episodes of severe sepsis. Site of infection was pulmonary in 50.3% of episodes and abdominal in 19.3% of episodes. The calculated incidence of severe sepsis in adults treated in Australian and New Zealand ICUs is 0.77 (0.76-0.79) per 1000 of population. 26.5% of patients with severe sepsis died in ICU, 32.4% died within 28 days of the diagnosis of severe sepsis and 37.5% died in hospital. Conclusion. In this prospective study, 11.8 patients per 100 ICU admissions were diagnosed with severe sepsis and the calculated annual incidence of severe sepsis in adult patients treated in Australian and New Zealand ICUs is 0.77 per 1000 of population. This figure for the population incidence falls in the lower range of recent estimates from retrospective studies in the U.S. and the U.K.

The effect of skin examination surveys on the incidence of basal cell carcinoma in a Queensland community sample: A 10-year longitudinal study

Skin cancers pose a significant public health problem in high-risk populations. We have prospectively monitored basal cell carcinoma (BCC) and squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) incidence in a Queensland community over a 10-y period by recording newly treated lesions, supplemented by skin examination surveys. Age-standardized incidence rates of people with new histologically confirmed BCC were 2787 per 100,000 person-years at risk (pyar) among men and 1567 per 100,000 pyar among women, and corresponding tumor rates were 5821 per 100,000 pyar and 2733 per 100,000 pyar, respectively. Incidence rates for men with new SCC were 944 per 100,000 pyar and for women 675 per 100,000 pyar; tumor rates were 1754 per 100,000 pyar and 846 per 100,000 pyar, respectively. Incidence rates of BCC tumors but not SCC tumors varied noticeably according to method of surveillance, with BCC incidence rates based on skin examination surveys around three times higher than background treatment rates. This was mostly due to an increase in diagnosis of new BCC on sites other than the head and neck, arms, and hands associated with skin examination surveys and little to do with advancing the time of diagnosis of BCC on these sites as seen by a return to background rates following the examination surveys. We conclude that BCC that might otherwise go unreported are detected during skin examination surveys and thus that such skin cancer screening can influence the apparent burden of skin cancer.

Incidence of Stagonospora meliloti and Acrocalymma medicaginis in Lucerne crowns and roots in eastern Australia, and their comparative aggressiveness to Lucerne and inheritance of reaction to S. meliloti in lucerne

The research presented indicates that lucerne crown and root rot caused by Stagonospora meliloti is prevalent in southern New South Wales, whereas Acrocalymma medicaginis is the more commonly observed pathogen in Queensland. Although both pathogens cause reddening of internal root and crown tissue of lucerne, they can be distinguished by symptomatology. S. meliloti causes a diffuse red blotching of the internal tissue accompanied by the presence of an external lesion, whereas A. medicaginis causes red streaking at the extremity of wedge-shaped, dry-rotted tissue. Inoculation of propagules of a susceptible lucerne clone indicated that S. meliloti was the more aggressive pathogen. Although A. medicaginis does not cause leaf disease, there was a strong relationship between the leaf and root reaction of clones to S. meliloti. Inheritance of resistance to S. meliloti in lucerne appeared to be conditioned by a single dominant gene, based on segregations observed in S-1 and F-1 populations, but not in a backcross population from the same family where an excess of susceptible individuals (74% v. expected of 50%) was obtained in a cross of a resistant F-1 individual to the susceptible parent. Resistance appears to be highly heritable, however, and amenable to population improvement by breeding. A conclusion of the research is that breeding for resistance to S. meliloti for lucernes to be grown in southern Australia would appear to be a worthwhile objective. Presently, no highly resistant cultivars exist anywhere in the world.