Efficient accommodation of local minima in watershed model calibration

The Gauss-Marquardt-Levenberg (GML) method of computer-based parameter estimation, in common with other gradient-based approaches, suffers from the drawback that it may become trapped in local objective function minima, and thus report optimized parameter values that are not, in fact, optimized at all. This can seriously degrade its utility in the calibration of watershed models where local optima abound. Nevertheless, the method also has advantages, chief among these being its model-run efficiency, and its ability to report useful information on parameter sensitivities and covariances as a by-product of its use. It is also easily adapted to maintain this efficiency in the face of potential numerical problems (that adversely affect all parameter estimation methodologies) caused by parameter insensitivity and/or parameter correlation. The present paper presents two algorithmic enhancements to the GML method that retain its strengths, but which overcome its weaknesses in the face of local optima. Using the first of these methods an intelligent search for better parameter sets is conducted in parameter subspaces of decreasing dimensionality when progress of the parameter estimation process is slowed either by numerical instability incurred through problem ill-posedness, or when a local objective function minimum is encountered. The second methodology minimizes the chance of successive GML parameter estimation runs finding the same objective function minimum by starting successive runs at points that are maximally removed from previous parameter trajectories. As well as enhancing the ability of a GML-based method to find the global objective function minimum, the latter technique can also be used to find the locations of many non-global optima (should they exist) in parameter space. This can provide a useful means of inquiring into the well-posedness of a parameter estimation problem, and for detecting the presence of bimodal parameter and predictive probability distributions. The new methodologies are demonstrated by calibrating a Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) model against a time series of daily flows. Comparison with the SCE-UA method in this calibration context demonstrates a high level of comparative model run efficiency for the new method. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The global sports-media nexus: Reflections on the 'Super League Saga' in Australia

Despite the social and (increasingly) commercial significance of sport and sporting bodies worldwide, they remain under-represented in the mainstream management literature. One of the more recent and dramatic examples of the global sports-media nexus is the 'Super League saga' in Australia. This paper recounts the tale of the Super League saga, providing a holistic analysis of the events and competitive issues arising by drawing on literatures concerning the economic nature and value of sports leagues, the resource-based view of the firm and the nature of psychological contracts in changing environments. The analysis confirms the general monopolistic tendencies of professional sports leagues in an increasingly global industry driven by the sports-media nexus, in accord with a number of comparable cases internationally. The particular conditions of the Australian marketplace that exacerbate this tendency beyond, for example, that found in the USA, and differences in the outcomes of battles between rival leagues are also considered. The Super League saga portrays the importance of effective management of resources key to the production of the 'rugby league product' including, among others, the often over-looked importance of careful management of local resources for the success of global strategies, and, where human resources are key, the importance of psychological contracting. The holistic analysis of the Super League saga in Australia affords lessons that extend well beyond the realm of sports.

Usefulness of quantitative echocardiographic techniques to predict recovery of regional and global left ventricular function after acute myocardial infarction

The left ventricular response to dobutamine may be quantified using tissue Doppler measurement of myocardial velocity or displacement or 3-dimensional echocardiography to measure ventricular volume and ejection fraction. This study sought to explore the accuracy of these methods for predicting segmental and global responses to therapy. Standard dobutamine and 3-dimensional echocardiography were performed in 92 consecutive patients with abnormal left ventricular function at rest. Recovery of function was defined by comparison with follow-up echocardiography at rest 5 months later. Segments that showed improved regional function at follow-up showed a higher increment in peak tissue Doppler velocity with dobutamine therapy than in nonviable segments (1.2 +/- 0.4 vs 0.3 +/- 0.2 cm/s, p = 0.001). Similarly, patients who showed a > 5% improvement of ejection fraction at follow-up showed a greater displacement response to dobutamine (6.9 +/- 3.2 vs 2.1 +/- 2.3 mm, p = 0.001), as well as a higher rate of ejection fraction, response to dobutamine (9 +/- 3% vs 2 +/- 2%, p = 0.001). The optimal cutoff values for predicting subsequent recovery of function at rest were an increment of peak velocity > 1 cm/s, >5 mm of displacement, and a >5% improvement of ejection fraction with low-dose dobutamine. (C) 2003 by Excerpta Medica, Inc.

A global health problem caused by arsenic from natural sources

Arsenic is a carcinogen to both humans and animals. Arsenicals have been associated with cancers of the skin, lung, and bladder. Clinical manifestations of chronic arsenic poisoning include non-cancer end point of hyper- and hypo-pigmentation, keratosis, hypertension, cardiovascular diseases and diabetes. Epidemiological evidence indicates that arsenic concentration exceeding 50 mug l(-1) in the drinking water is not public health protective. The current WHO recommended guideline value for arsenic in drinking water is 10 mug l(-1), whereas many developing countries are still having a value of 50 mug 1(-1). It has been estimated that tens of millions of people are. at risk exposing to excessive levels of arsenic from both contaminated water and arsenic-bearing coal from natural sources. The global health implication and possible intervention strategies were also discussed in this review article. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Going global with assessment: what to do when the dominant culture's literacy drives assessment

This article explores how the dominant cultural literacy in a western context relies on a western template of knowledge that can inhibit internationalisation of the curricula unless it is identified, transformed, and broadened to become interculturally responsive. As Brian Street has said "literacies may be sites of negotiation and transform ation" (1994, p. 99). Drawing on the findings of an innovative website, Worldmarks , developed at Queensland University of Technology, as well as qualitative interviews with international students and staff, this article addresses the serious implications of assessment driven by the dominant culture's literacy. We identify how and why assessment driven by responsive cultural literacy enables all students to develop comprehensive intercultural communication skills and understandings as part of their lifelong learning in Australian universities.

Towards definition of the global biotechnology value chain using cases from Australian biotechnology SMEs

The generic pharmaceutical value chain model has been employed to describe both the global pharmaceutical and biotechnology industries till now. This research investigates the organisational value chain in Australian biotechnology companies in order to assess the appropriateness of the pharmaceutical value chain to small-and medium-sized biotechnology companies. The main theme of the research is: Can a generic model of the organisational value chain be defined for the biotechnology industry? Emanating from the literature, two research propositions were developed. RP1: there are eight major definable elements/activities of the organisational value chain for the biotechnology industry. RP2: Coverage of the elements in the biotechnology value chain ranges from focused to broad. A multiple case study methodology was used to explore these propositions. To develop a number of case studies, data was collected from senior managers of small and medium Australian biotechnology companies using an interview instrument, as well as from publicly available documentation and through observation. The results were analysed using cross-case comparisons. The results showed that an aggregation of the value chains of each organisation can be reduced to these eight definable elements that constitute the biotechnology value chain: basic research, applied research, development, verification and validation, prototype development, clinical trials, manufacturing and marketing. However, the findings also indicate that these major elements of the value chain need to be further reduced into sub-activities or sub-tasks to cater for the unique differences between biotechnology companies. Generally, the findings were consistent with the literature. However, a wider sampling, including international biotechnology organisations should be studied. The major contribution of this research is in the development of a value chain model, including general sub-tasks, for the Australian biotechnology industry.

Think global, act global: Corporate content streaming and Australian media policy

Australia ’s media policy agenda has recently been dominated by debate over two key issues: media ownership reform, and the local content provisions of the Australia–United States Free Trade Agreement. Challenging the tendency to analyse these issues separately, the article considers them as interlinked indicators of fundamental shifts occurring in the digital media environment. Converged media corporations increasingly seek to achieve economies of scale through ‘content streaming’: multi-purposing proprietary content across numerous digitally enabled platforms. This has resulted in rivalries for control of delivery technologies (as witnessed in media ownership debates) as well as over market access for corporate content (in the case of local content debates). The article contextualises Australia’s contemporary media policy flashpoints within international developments and longer-term industry strategising. It further questions the power of media policy as it is currently conceived to deal adequately with the challenges raised by a converging digital media marketplace.

Late pleistocene to holocene composite speleothem O-18 and C-13 chronologies from south island, new Zealand-did a global younger dryas really exist?

Oxygen and carbon data from eight stalagmites from northwest South Island are combined to produce composite records of delta(18)O and delta(13)C from 23.4 ka to the present. The chronology is anchored by 43 thermal ionization mass spectrometry (TIMS) uranium series ages. Delta O-18 values are interpreted as having a first order positive relationship to temperature, but also to be influenced by precipitation in a complex manner. Delta C-13 is interpreted as responding negatively to increases in atmospheric CO, concentration, biological activity and precipitation amount. Six climatic phases are recognized. After adjustment of 1.2parts per thousand for the ice volume effect, the delta(18)O record between 23 and 18 ka varies around -3.72parts per thousand compared to the Holocene average of -3.17parts per thousand. Late-glacial warming commenced between 18.2 and 17.8 ka and accelerated after 16.7 ka, culminating in a positive excursion between 14.70 and 13.53 ka. This was followed by a significant negative excursion between 13.53 and 11.14 ka of up to 0.55parts per thousand depth that overlapped the Antarctic Cold Reversal (ACR) and spanned the Younger Dryas (YD). Positive delta(18)O excursions at 11.14 ka and 6.91-6.47 ka represent the warmest parts of the Holocene. The mid-Holocene from 6 to 2 ka was marked by negative excursions that coincide with increased glacial activity in the South Island. A short positive excursion from 0.71 to 0.57 ka was slightly later than the Medieval Warm Period of Europe. Delta C-13 values were high until 17.79 ka after which there was an abrupt decrease to 17.19 ka followed by a steady decline to a minimum at 10.97 ka. Then followed a general increase, suggesting a drying trend, to 3.23 ka followed by a further general decline. The abrupt decrease in delta-values after 17.79 ka probably corresponds to an increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration, biological activity and wetness at the end of the Last Glaciation, but the reversal identified in the delta(18)O record from 13.53 to 11.14 ka was not reflected in delta(13)C changes. The lowest delta(13)C values coincided with the early Holocene climatic suboptimum when conditions were relatively wet as well as mild. Major trends in the delta(18)O(c) record are similar to the Northern Hemisphere, but second order detail is often distinctly different. Consequently, at the millennial scale, a more convincing case can be made for asymmetric climatic response between the two hemispheres rather than synchronicity. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The evolution of the Global Burden of Disease framework for disease, injury and risk factor quantification: Developing the evidence base for national, regional and global public health action

Reliable, comparable information about the main causes of disease and injury in populations, and how these are changing, is a critical input for debates about priorities in the health sector. Traditional sources of information about the descriptive epidemiology of diseases, injuries and risk factors are generally incomplete, fragmented and of uncertain reliability and comparability. Lack of a standardized measurement framework to permit comparisons across diseases and injuries, as well as risk factors, and failure to systematically evaluate data quality have impeded comparative analyses of the true public health importance of various conditions and risk factors. As a consequence the impact of major conditions and hazards on population health has been poorly appreciated, often leading to a lack of public health investment. Global disease and risk factor quantification improved dramatically in the early 1990s with the completion of the first Global Burden of Disease Study. For the first time, the comparative importance of over 100 diseases and injuries, and ten major risk factors, for global and regional health status could be assessed using a common metric (Disability-Adjusted Life Years) which simultaneously accounted for both premature mortality and the prevalence, duration and severity of the non-fatal consequences of disease and injury. As a consequence, mental health conditions and injuries, for which non-fatal outcomes are of particular significance, were identified as being among the leading causes of disease/injury burden worldwide, with clear implications for policy, particularly prevention. A major achievement of the Study was the complete global descriptive epidemiology, including incidence, prevalence and mortality, by age, sex and Region, of over 100 diseases and injuries. National applications, further methodological research and an increase in data availability have led to improved national, regional and global estimates for 2000, but substantial uncertainty around the disease burden caused by major conditions, including, HIV, remains. The rapid implementation of cost-effective data collection systems in developing countries is a key priority if global public policy to promote health is to be more effectively informed.

Measuring the global burden of disease and epidemiological transitions: 2002-2030

Any planning process for health development ought to be based on a thorough understanding of the health needs of the population. This should be sufficiently comprehensive to include the causes of premature death and of disability, as well as the major risk factors that underlie disease and injury. To be truly useful to inform health-policy debates, such an assessment is needed across a large number of diseases, injuries and risk factors, in order to guide prioritization. The results of the original Global Burden of Disease Study and, particularly, those of its 2000-2002 update provide a conceptual and methodological framework to quantify and compare the health of populations using a summary measure of both mortality and disability: the disability-adjusted life-year (DALY). Globally, it appears that about 5 6 million deaths occur each year, 10. 5 million (almost all in poor countries) in children. Of the child deaths, about one-fifth result from perinatal causes such as birth asphyxia and birth trauma, and only slightly less from lower respiratory infections. Annually, diarrhoeal diseases kill over 1.5 million children, and malaria, measles and HIV/AIDS each claim between 500,000 and 800,000 children. HIV/AIDS is the fourth leading cause of death world-wide (2.9 million deaths) and the leading cause in Africa. The top three causes of death globally are ischaemic heart disease (7.2 million deaths), stroke (5.5 million) and lower respiratory diseases (3.9 million). Chronic obstructive lung diseases (COPD) cause almost as many deaths as HIV/AIDS (2.7 million). The leading causes of DALY, on the other hand, include causes that are common at young ages [perinatal conditions (7. 1 % of global DALY), lower respiratory infections (6.7%), and diarrhoeal diseases (4.7%)] as well as depression (4.1%). Ischaemic heart disease and stroke rank sixth and seventh, retrospectively, as causes of global disease burden, followed by road traffic accidents, malaria and tuberculosis. Projections to 2030 indicate that, although these major vascular diseases will remain leading causes of global disease burden, with HIV/AIDS the leading cause, diarrhoeal diseases and lower respiratory infections will be outranked by COPD, in part reflecting the projected increases in death and disability from tobacco use.

It's all very well, in theory: Theoretical perspectives and their applications in contemporary pedagogical research

Current debates about educational theory are concerned with the relationship between knowledge and power and thereby issues such as who possesses a truth and how have they arrived at it, what questions are important to ask, and how should they best be answered. As such, these debates revolve around questions of preferred, appropriate, and useful theoretical perspectives. This paper overviews the key theoretical perspectives that are currently used in physical education pedagogy research and considers how these inform the questions we ask and shapes the conduct of research. It also addresses what is contested with respect to these perspectives. The paper concludes with some cautions about allegiances to and use of theories in line with concerns for the applicability of educational research to pressing social issues.

Evidence for a global Wolbachia replacement in Drosophila melanogaster

Wolbachia are maternally inherited intracellular α-Proteobacteria found in numerous arthropod and filarial nematode species [1, 2 and 3]. They influence the biology of their hosts in many ways. In some cases, they act as obligate mutualists and are required for the normal development and reproduction of the host [4 and 5]. They are best known, however, for the various reproductive parasitism traits that they can generate in infected hosts. These include cytoplasmic incompatibility (CI) between individuals of different infection status, the parthenogenetic production of females, the selective killing of male embryos, and the feminization of genetic males [1 and 2]. Wolbachia infections of Drosophila melanogaster are extremely common in both wild populations and long-term laboratory stocks [6, 7 and 8]. Utilizing the newly completed genome sequence of Wolbachia pipientis wMel [9], we have identified a number of polymorphic markers that can be used to discriminate among five different Wolbachia variants within what was previously thought to be the single clonal infection of D. melanogaster. Analysis of long-term lab stocks together with wild-caught flies indicates that one of these variants has replaced the others globally within the last century. This is the first report of a global replacement of a Wolbachia strain in an insect host species. The sweep is at odds with current theory that cannot explain how Wolbachia can invade this host species given the observed cytoplasmic incompatibility characteristics of Wolbachia infections in D. melanogaster in the field [6].

A master equation model for bimolecular reaction via multi-well isomerization intermediates

A reversible linear master equation model is presented for pressure- and temperature-dependent bimolecular reactions proceeding via multiple long-lived intermediates. This kinetic treatment, which applies when the reactions are measured under pseudo-first-order conditions, facilitates accurate and efficient simulation of the time dependence of the populations of reactants, intermediate species and products. Detailed exploratory calculations have been carried out to demonstrate the capabilities of the approach, with applications to the bimolecular association reaction C3H6 + H reversible arrow C3H7 and the bimolecular chemical activation reaction C2H2 +(CH2)-C-1--> C3H3+H. The efficiency of the method can be dramatically enhanced through use of a diffusion approximation to the master equation, and a methodology for exploiting the sparse structure of the resulting rate matrix is established.