Future contributions of crop modelling - from heuristics and supporting decision making to understanding genetic regulation and aiding crop improvement

Crop modelling has evolved over the last 30 or so years in concert with advances in crop physiology, crop ecology and computing technology. Having reached a respectable degree of acceptance, it is appropriate to review briefly the course of developments in crop modelling and to project what might be major contributions of crop modelling in the future. Two major opportunities are envisioned for increased modelling activity in the future. One opportunity is in a continuing central, heuristic role to support scientific investigation, to facilitate decision making by crop managers, and to aid in education. Heuristic activities will also extend to the broader system-level issues of environmental and ecological aspects of crop production. The second opportunity is projected as a prime contributor in understanding and advancing the genetic regulation of plant performance and plant improvement. Physiological dissection and modelling of traits provides an avenue by which crop modelling could contribute to enhancing integration of molecular genetic technologies in crop improvement. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

A hybrid probabilistic criterion for market-based transmission expansion planning

Market-based transmission expansion planning gives information to investors on where is the most cost efficient place to invest and brings benefits to those who invest in this grid. However, both market issue and power system adequacy problems are system planers’ concern. In this paper, a hybrid probabilistic criterion of Expected Economical Loss (EEL) is proposed as an index to evaluate the systems’ overall expected economical losses during system operation in a competitive market. It stands on both investors’ and planner’s point of view and will further improves the traditional reliability cost. By applying EEL, it is possible for system planners to obtain a clear idea regarding the transmission network’s bottleneck and the amount of losses arises from this weak point. Sequentially, it enables planners to assess the worth of providing reliable services. Also, the EEL will contain valuable information for moneymen to undertake their investment. This index could truly reflect the random behaviors of power systems and uncertainties from electricity market. The performance of the EEL index is enhanced by applying Normalized Coefficient of Probability (NCP), so it can be utilized in large real power systems. A numerical example is carried out on IEEE Reliability Test System (RTS), which will show how the EEL can predict the current system bottleneck under future operational conditions and how to use EEL as one of planning objectives to determine future optimal plans. A well-known simulation method, Monte Carlo simulation, is employed to achieve the probabilistic characteristic of electricity market and Genetic Algorithms (GAs) is used as a multi-objective optimization tool.

Optical study of a light diaphragm rupture process in an expansion tube

Rupture of a light cellophane diaphragm in an expansion tube has been studied by an optical method. The influence of the light diaphragm on test flow generation has long been recognised, however the diaphragm rupture mechanism is less well known. It has been previously postulated that the diaphragm ruptures around its periphery due to the dynamic pressure loading of the shock wave, with the diaphragm material at some stage being removed from the flow to allow the shock to accelerate to the measured speeds downstream. The images obtained in this series of experiments are the first to show the mechanism of diaphragm rupture and mass removal in an expansion tube. A light diaphragm was impulsively loaded via a shock wave and a series of images was recorded holographically throughout the rupture process, showing gradual destruction of the diaphragm. Features such as the diaphragm material, the interface between gases, and a reflected shock were clearly visualised. Both qualitative and quantitative aspects of the rupture dynamics were derived from the images and compared with existing one-dimensional theory.

Intuition: Myth or a Decision-making Tool?

Faced with today’s ill-structured business environment of fast-paced change and rising uncertainty, organizations have been searching for management tools that will perform satisfactorily under such ambiguous conditions. In the arena of managerial decision making, one of the approaches being assessed is the use of intuition. Based on our definition of intuition as a non-sequential information-processing mode, which comprises both cognitive and affective elements and results in direct knowing without any use of conscious reasoning, we develop a testable model of integrated analytical and intuitive decision making and propose ways to measure the use of intuition.

FRA10B structure reveals common elements in repeat expansion and chromosomal fragile site genesis

A common mechanism for chromosomal fragile site genesis is not yet apparent. Folate-sensitive fragile sites are expanded p(CCG)n repeats that arise from longer normal alleles. Distamycin A or bromodeoxyuridine-inducible fragile site FRA16B is an expanded AT-rich similar to 33 bp repeat; however, the relationship between normal and fragile site alleles is not known. Here, we report that bromodeoxyuridine-inducible, distamycin A-insensitive fragile site FRA10B is composed of expanded similar to 42 bp repeats. Differences in repeat motif length or composition between different FRA10B families indicate multiple independent expansion events. Some FRA10B alleles comprise a mixture of different expanded repeat motifs. FRA10B fragile site and long normal alleles share flanking polymorphisms. Somatic and intergenerational FRA10B repeat instability analogous to that found in expanded trinucleotide repeats supports dynamic mutation as a common mechanism for repeat expansion.

Emission and holographic interferometry measurements in a superorbital expansion tube

Free-piston-driven expansion tubes are capable of generating flaw conditions over a wide range of enthalpies ranging from orbital up to superorbital velocities. Initial optical measurements aimed at investigating the flow in such a facility are presented. Emission studies were used to identify impurities in the how and to investigate spectral regions that are accessible by optical techniques. At moderate enthalpies, it was found that significant radiation resulted from metallic contaminants. At high enthalpies, the spectrum consisted of a number of atomic lines together with a broadband background component indicative of the presence of electrons. The presence of this radiation may limit the applicability of optical techniques that require spectral regions free from the influence of atomic transitions or background radiation. Emission spectroscopy (through Stark broadened hydrogen lines) and two-wavelength holographic interferometry were used to measure the electron number density behind a bow shock on a blunt body at conditions where significant ionization was observed. They yielded average concentrations of (3 +/- 1) x 10(17) cm(-3) from the emission measurements and (3.8 +/- 0.6) x 10(17) cm(-3) from the interferometry.

Australian import managers' purchasing decision behaviour: An empirical study

Reports a pilot study of the relative importance of import decision variables as rated by Australian managers. A systematic sample qi 104 Australian managers representing different companies participated in the study. Australian importers rated product quality as the most important variable when importing products from overseas followed by long-term suppliers' dependability, product style/feature, price, and timely delivery. Australian managers who import consumer products find the domestic import duties and tariffs to be more important than did those who import industrial products. Larger volume importers regard the product brand name reputation to be more important than did those who import smaller volumes.

Is there an association between normal cognitive functioning and trinucleotide repeat expansion at loci involved in neurodegenerative disorders?

Recent reports have shown neurodegenerative disorders to be associated with abnormal expansions of a CAG trinucleotide repeat allele at various autosomal loci. While normal chromosomes have 14 to 44 repeats, disease chromosomes may have 60 to 84 repeats. The number of CAG repeats on mutant chromosomes correlates with increasing severity of disease or decreasing age at onset of symptoms. Since we are interested in identifying the many quantitative trait loci (QTL) influencing brain functioning, we examined the possibility that the number of CAG repeats in the normal size range at these loci are relevant to "normal" neural functioning. We have used 150 pairs of adolescent (aged 16 years) twins and their parents to examine allele size at the MJD, SCA1, and DRPLA loci in heterozygous normal individuals. These are part of a large ongoing project using cognitive and physiological measures to investigate the genetie influences on cognition, and an extensive protocol of tests is employed to assess some of the key components of intellectual functioning. This study selected to examine full-scale psychometric IQ (FSIQ) and a measure of information processing (choice reaction time) and working memory (slow wave amplitude). CAG repeat size was determined on an ABI Genescan system following multiplex PCR amplification. Quantitative genetic analyses were performed to determine QTL effects of MJD, SCA1, and DRPLA on cognitive functioning. Analyses are in progress and will be discussed.

Effect of increased lung expansion on lung growth and development near midgestation in fetal sheep

Obstruction of the fetal trachea is a potent stimulus for fetal lung growth and may have therapeutic potential in human fetuses with lung hypoplasia. However, the effects of increased lung expansion on lung development near midgestation, which is the preferred timing for fetal intervention, have not been well studied. Our aim was to determine the effects of increased lung expansion on lung development at 75-90 d of gestation in fetal sheep. In three groups of fetuses (n = 4 for each), the trachea was occluded for either 10 [10-d tracheal occlusion (TO) group] or 15 d (15-d TO group) or left intact (control fetuses). TO for both 10 and 15 d caused fetal hydrops, resulting in significantly increased fetal body weights. Both periods of TO significantly increased total lung DNA contents from 99.8 +/- 10.1 to 246.0 +/- 5.3 and 246.9 +/- 48.7 mg in 10- and 15-d TO fetuses, respectively. TO for 10 and 15 d also increased airspace diameter, although the percentage of lung occupied by airspace was not increased in 10-d TO fetuses due to large increases in interairway distances; this resulted from a large increase in mesenchymal tissue. The interairway distances at 15 d of TO were reduced compared with the 10-d value but were still similar to 30% larger than control values. We conclude that TO at

Volunteer decision making by older people: A test of a revised theory of planned behavior

This study was designed to test the utility of a revised theory of planned behavior in the prediction of intentions to volunteer among older people. Such a perspective allowed for the consideration of a broader range of social and contextual factors than has been examined in previous research on volunteer decision making among older people. The article reports the findings from a study that investigated volunteer intentions and behavior in a random sample of older people aged 65 to 74 years living in an Australian capital city. Results showed that, as predicted by the revised theory of planned behavior, intention to volunteer predicted subsequent reported volunteer behavior. Intention was, in turn, predicted by social norms (both subjective and behavioral), perceived behavioral control, and moral obligation, with the effect of attitude being mediated through moral obligation.

Assisting decision-making in Queensland barley production through chance constrained programming

A chance constrained programming model is developed to assist Queensland barley growers make varietal and agronomic decisions in the face of changing product demands and volatile production conditions. Unsuitable or overlooked in many risk programming applications, the chance constrained programming approach nonetheless aptly captures the single-stage decision problem faced by barley growers of whether to plant lower-yielding but potentially higher-priced malting varieties, given a particular expectation of meeting malting grade standards. Different expectations greatly affect the optimal mix of malting and feed barley activities. The analysis highlights the suitability of chance constrained programming to this specific class of farm decision problem.

Is there an association between chronic lung disease and abdominal aortic aneurysm expansion?

Background: Although there is evidence demonstrating an association between chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA), it is not clear whether COPD predicts greater rates of expansion of established aneurysms. We sought such an association in a cohort of men with aneurysms detected in a population-based study of screening for aneurysms. Methods: In addition to regular aortic ultrasound scans, 179 men with AAA underwent full lung function testing in order to identify the presence of COPD and its subgroups, emphysema and other obstructive ventilatory defects (OVD). The rate of expansion of each aneurysm was calculated and the men were divided into 'rapid expanders' (3 mm or more per year) and 'slow expanders' (less than 3 mm per year). Any association with the presence of COPD or smoking was tested using a multivariate model. Results: Over a median follow-up period of 36 months the mean rate of aortic expansion for the cohort of 179 men was 2.1 mm/year. There was no significant difference in prevalence of COPD (68% overall) or having ever been a smoker (87% overall) between the rapid expanders and the slow expanders. Conclusions: Although there was a high prevalence of COPD among men with an AAA, there was no association between the rate of expansion of AAA and the presence of any form of this disease.