The effective management of geological risk in long-term production scheduling of open pit mines

Investment in mining projects, like most business investment, is susceptible to risk and uncertainty. The ability to effectively identify, assess and manage risk may enable strategic investments to be sheltered and operations to perform closer to their potential. In mining, geological uncertainty is seen as the major contributor to not meeting project expectations. The need to assess and manage geological risk for project valuation and decision-making translates to the need to assess and manage risk in any pertinent parameter of open pit design and production scheduling. This is achieved by taking geological uncertainty into account in the mine optimisation process. This thesis develops methods that enable geological uncertainty to be effectively modelled and the resulting risk in long-term production scheduling to be quantified and managed. One of the main accomplishments of this thesis is the development of a new, risk-based method for the optimisation of long-term production scheduling. In addition to maximising economic returns, the new method minimises the risk of deviating from production forecasts, given the understanding of the orebody. This ability represents a major advance in the risk management of open pit mining.

HPGR model verification and scale-up

This paper summarises test results that were used to validate a model and scale-up procedure of the high pressure grinding roll (HPGR) which was developed at the JKMRC by Morrell et al. [Morrell, Lim, Tondo, David,1996. Modelling the high pressure grinding rolls. In: Mining Technology Conference, pp. 169-176.]. Verification of the model is based on results from four data sets that describe the performance of three industrial scale units fitted with both studded and smooth roll surfaces. The industrial units are currently in operation within the diamond mining industry and are represented by De Beers, BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto. Ore samples from the De Beers and BHP Billiton operations were sent to the JKMRC for ore characterisation and HPGR laboratory-scale tests. Rio Tinto contributed an historical data set of tests completed during a previous research project. The results conclude that the modelling of the HPGR process has matured to a point where the model may be used to evaluate new and to optimise existing comminution circuits. The model prediction of product size distribution is good and has been found to be strongly dependent of the characteristics of the material being tested. The prediction of throughput and corresponding power draw (based on throughput) is sensitive to inconsistent gap/diameter ratios observed between laboratory-scale tests and full-scale operations. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Load profiling and data mining techniques in electricity deregulated market

This paper presents load profiles of electricity customers, using the knowledge discovery in databases (KDD) procedure, a data mining technique, to determine the load profiles for different types of customers. In this paper, the current load profiling methods are compared using data mining techniques, by analysing and evaluating these classification techniques. The objective of this study is to determine the best load profiling methods and data mining techniques to classify, detect and predict non-technical losses in the distribution sector, due to faulty metering and billing errors, as well as to gather knowledge on customer behaviour and preferences so as to gain a competitive advantage in the deregulated market. This paper focuses mainly on the comparative analysis of the classification techniques selected; a forthcoming paper will focus on the detection and prediction methods.

Electricity market price spike forecast with data mining techniques

Electricity market price forecast is a changeling yet very important task for electricity market managers and participants. Due to the complexity and uncertainties in the power grid, electricity prices are highly volatile and normally carry with spikes. which may be (ens or even hundreds of times higher than the normal price. Such electricity spikes are very difficult to be predicted. So far. most of the research on electricity price forecast is based on the normal range electricity prices. This paper proposes a data mining based electricity price forecast framework, which can predict the normal price as well as the price spikes. The normal price can be, predicted by a previously proposed wavelet and neural network based forecast model, while the spikes are forecasted based on a data mining approach. This paper focuses on the spike prediction and explores the reasons for price spikes based on the measurement of a proposed composite supply-demand balance index (SDI) and relative demand index (RDI). These indices are able to reflect the relationship among electricity demand, electricity supply and electricity reserve capacity. The proposed model is based on a mining database including market clearing price, trading hour. electricity), demand, electricity supply and reserve. Bayesian classification and similarity searching techniques are used to mine the database to find out the internal relationships between electricity price spikes and these proposed. The mining results are used to form the price spike forecast model. This proposed model is able to generate forecasted price spike, level of spike and associated forecast confidence level. The model is tested with the Queensland electricity market data with promising results. Crown Copyright (C) 2004 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Customer information system data pre-processing with feature selection techniques for non-technical losses prediction in an electricity market

Non-technical losses (NTL) identification and prediction are important tasks for many utilities. Data from customer information system (CIS) can be used for NTL analysis. However, in order to accurately and efficiently perform NTL analysis, the original data from CIS need to be pre-processed before any detailed NTL analysis can be carried out. In this paper, we propose a feature selection based method for CIS data pre-processing in order to extract the most relevant information for further analysis such as clustering and classifications. By removing irrelevant and redundant features, feature selection is an essential step in data mining process in finding optimal subset of features to improve the quality of result by giving faster time processing, higher accuracy and simpler results with fewer features. Detailed feature selection analysis is presented in the paper. Both time-domain and load shape data are compared based on the accuracy, consistency and statistical dependencies between features.

Fuzzy logic in web data mining for website assessment

This paper proposes a novel application of fuzzy logic to web data mining for two basic problems of a website: popularity and satisfaction. Popularity means that people will visit the website while satisfaction refers to the usefulness of the site. We will illustrate that the popularity of a website is a fuzzy logic problem. It is an important characteristic of a website in order to survive in Internet commerce. The satisfaction of a website is also a fuzzy logic problem that represents the degree of success in the application of information technology to the business. We propose a framework of fuzzy logic for the representation of these two problems based on web data mining techniques to fuzzify the attributes of a website.