On the estimation and comparison of short-rate models using the generalised method of moments

Subsequent to the influential paper of [Chan, K.C., Karolyi, G.A., Longstaff, F.A., Sanders, A.B., 1992. An empirical comparison of alternative models of the short-term interest rate. Journal of Finance 47, 1209-1227], the generalised method of moments (GMM) has been a popular technique for estimation and inference relating to continuous-time models of the short-term interest rate. GMM has been widely employed to estimate model parameters and to assess the goodness-of-fit of competing short-rate specifications. The current paper conducts a series of simulation experiments to document the bias and precision of GMM estimates of short-rate parameters, as well as the size and power of [Hansen, L.P., 1982. Large sample properties of generalised method of moments estimators. Econometrica 50, 1029-1054], J-test of over-identifying restrictions. While the J-test appears to have appropriate size and good power in sample sizes commonly encountered in the short-rate literature, GMM estimates of the speed of mean reversion are shown to be severely biased. Consequently, it is dangerous to draw strong conclusions about the strength of mean reversion using GMM. In contrast, the parameter capturing the levels effect, which is important in differentiating between competing short-rate specifications, is estimated with little bias. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Are there non-linearities in short-term interest rates?

The present paper investigates the characteristics of short-term interest rates in several countries. We examine the importance of nonlinearities in the mean reversion and volatility of short-term interest rates. We examine various models that allow the conditional mean (drift) and conditional variance (diffusion) to be functions of the current short rate.We find that different markets require different models. In particular, we find evidence of nonlinear mean reversion in some of the countries that we examine, linear mean reversion in others and no mean reversion in some countries. For all countries we examine, there is strong evidence of the need for the volatility of interest rate changes to be highly sensitive to the level of the short-term interest rate. Out-of-sample forecasting performance of one-factor short rate models is poor, stemming from the inability of the models to accommodate jumps and discontinuities in the time series data.

A multicentre, randomized, double-blind, controlled trial of nebulized epinephrine in infants with acute bronchiolitis

Background The treatment of infants with bronchiolitis is largely supportive. The role of bronchodilators is controversial. Most studies of the use of bronchodilators have enrolled small numbers of subjects and have examined only short-term outcomes, such as clinical scores. Methods We conducted a randomized, double-blind, controlled trial comparing nebulized single-isomer epinephrine with placebo in 194 infants admitted to four hospitals in Queens-land, Australia, with a clinical diagnosis of bronchiolitis. Three 4-ml doses of 1 percent nebulized epinephrine or three 4-ml doses of normal saline were administered at four-hour intervals after hospital admission. Observations were made at admission and just before, 30 minutes after, and 60 minutes after each dose. The primary outcome measures were the length of the hospital stay and the time until the infant was ready for discharge. The secondary outcome measures were the degree of change in the respiratory rate, the heart rate, and the respiratory-effort score and the time that supplemental oxygen was required. Results There were no significant overall differences between the groups in the length of the hospital stay (P=0.16) or the time until the infant was ready for discharge (P=0.86). Among infants who required supplemental oxygen and intravenous fluids, the time until the infant was ready for discharge was significantly longer in the epinephrine group than in the placebo group (P=0.02). The need for supplemental oxygen at admission had the greatest influence on the score for severity of illness and strongly predicted the length of the hospital stay and the time until the infant was ready for discharge (P

Promoting better use of the PSA test in general practice: Randomized controlled trial of educational strategies based on outreach visits and mailout

Background. Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing for prostate cancer is controversial. Demand for PSA testing is likely to rise in the UK, Australia and other western countries. Primary care needs to develop appropriate strategies to respond to this demand. Objectives. Our aim was to compare the effectiveness of educational outreach visits (EOVs) and mailout strategies targeting PSA testing in Australian primary care. Methods. A randomized controlled trial was conducted in general practices in southern Adelaide. The main outcome measures at baseline, 6 months and 12 months post-intervention were PSA testing rates and GP knowledge in key areas relating to prostate cancer and PSA testing. Results. The interventions were able to demonstrate a change in clinical practice. In the 6 months post-intervention, median PSA testing rate in the EOV group was significantly lower than in the postal group, which in turn was significantly lower than the control group (P < 0.001). Statistically significant differences were not, however, maintained in the 6-12 month post-intervention period. The EOV group, at 6 months follow-up, had a significantly greater proportion of 'correct' responses than the control group to questions about prostate cancer treatment effectiveness (P = 0.004) and endorsement of PSA screening by professional bodies (P = 0.041). Conclusions. Primary care has a central role in PSA testing for prostate cancer. Clinical practice in this area is receptive to evidence-based interventions.

Kinetic model for selective cultivation of microfungi in a microscreen process for food processing wastewater treatment and biomass production

The research was aimed at developing a technology to combine the production of useful microfungi with the treatment of wastewater from food processing. A recycle bioreactor equipped with a micro-screen was developed as a wastewater treatment system on a laboratory scale to contain a Rhizopus culture and maintain its dominance under non-aseptic conditions. Competitive growth of bacteria was observed, but this was minimised by manipulation of the solids retention time and the hydraulic retention time. Removal of about 90% of the waste organic material (as BOD) from the wastewater was achieved simultaneously. Since essentially all fungi are retained behind the 100 mum aperture screen, the solids retention time could be controlled by the rate of harvesting. The hydraulic retention time was employed to control the bacterial growth as the bacteria were washed through the screen at a short HRT. A steady state model was developed to determine these two parameters. This model predicts the effluent quality. Experimental work is still needed to determine the growth characteristics of the selected fungal species under optimum conditions (pH and temperature).

A randomized controlled trial to assess sunscreen application and beta carotene supplementation in the prevention of solar keratoses

Background: Solar keratoses (SKs) are among the strongest determinants of skin cancer, but little is known about the success of measures to control these common skin tumors. Objective: To determine whether daily sunscreen application and/or beta carotene supplementation retards the rate of occurrence of SKs in adults in the medium term. Design: Randomized controlled trial conducted between February 1992 and August 1996. Setting: General community of the subtropical township of Nambour, Australia (latitude, 26degrees south). Participants: A total of 1621 adults aged 25 to 74 years. Interventions: Participants were randomized to daily use of sunscreen (application of a high-protection sunscreen to their head, neck, arms, and hands every morning) or application of sunscreen at their usual discretionary rate. They were also randomly assigned to take either one 30-mg tablet of beta carotene or one placebo tablet each day. Main Outcome Measure: Change in the prevalent number of SKs in the intervention group relative to change in the control group. Results: The ratio of SK counts in 1994 relative to 1992 was lower in people randomized to daily sunscreen use (1.20; 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.39) than in those randomized to discretionary sunscreen use (1.57; 95% confidence interval, 1.35-1.84). This 24% reduction is equivalent to the prevention of an average of I additional SK per person over that time. A reduction in the rate of change of SK prevalence was also seen in the sunscreen intervention group relative to the discretionary sunscreen group between 1994 and 1996, but it was not significant. No effect on the rate of change of prevalent SK counts was seen among those taking beta carotene supplements relative. to those taking placebo tablets. Conclusions: Daily application of sunscreen retarded the rate of SK acquisition among adults in a subtropical environment, while a beta carotene supplementation of 30 mg/d had no influence on the occurrence of SKs.

Multisite, quality-improvement collaboration to optimise cardiac care in Queensland public hospitals

Objective: To evaluate changes in quality of in-hospital care of patients with either acute coronary syndromes (ACS) or congestive heart failure (CHF) admitted to hospitals participating in a multisite quality improvement collaboration. Design: Before-and-after study of changes in quality indicators measured on representative patient samples between June 2001 and January 2003. Setting: Nine public hospitals in Queensland. Study populations: Consecutive or randomly selected patients admitted to study hospitals during the baseline period (June 2001 to January 2002; n = 807 for ACS, n = 357 for CHF) and post-intervention period (July 2002 to January 2003; n = 717 for ACS, n = 220 for CHF). Intervention: Provision of comparative baseline feedback at a facilitative workshop combined with hospital-specific quality-improvement interventions supported by on-site quality officers and a central program management group. Main outcome measure: Changes in process-of-care indicators between baseline and post-intervention periods. Results: Compared with baseline, more patients with ACS in the post-intervention period received therapeutic heparin regimens (84% v 72%; P < 0.001), angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (64% v 56%; P = 0.02), lipid-lowering agents (72% v 62%; P < 0.001), early use of coronary angiography (52% v 39%; P < 0.001), in-hospital cardiac counselling (65% v 43%; P < 0.001), and referral to cardiac rehabilitation (15% v 5%; P < 0.001). The numbers of patients with CHF receiving β-blockers also increased (52% v 34%; P < 0.001), with fewer patients receiving deleterious agents (13% v 23%; P = 0.04). Same-cause 30-day readmission rate decreased from 7.2% to 2.4% (P = 0.02) in patients with CHF. Conclusion: Quality-improvement interventions conducted as multisite collaborations may improve in-hospital care of acute cardiac conditions within relatively short time frames.

An adaptogenic role for omega-3 fatty acids in stress; a randomised placebo controlled double blind intervention study (pilot) [ISRCTN22569553]

Background There is evidence for an adaptive role of the omega -3 fatty acid, docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) during stress. Mechanisms of action may involve regulation of stress mediators, such as the catecholamines and proinflammatory cytokines. Prevention of stress-induced aggression and hostility were demonstrated in a series of clinical trials. This study investigates whether perceived stress is ameliorated by DHA in stressed university staff. Methods Subjects that scored ≥ 17 on the Perceived Stress Scale were randomised into a 6-week pilot intervention study. The diet reactive group was supplemented with 6 g of fish oil containing 1.5 g per day DHA, while the placebo group was supplemented with 6 g a day of olive oil. The groups were compared with each other and a wider cross sectional study population that did not receive either active or placebo intervention. Results There was a significant reduction in perceived stress in both the fish oil and the placebo group from baseline. There was also a significant between-group difference between the fish oil group and the no-treatment controls in the rate of stress reduction (p < 0.05). However, there was not a significant between-group difference between the fish oil and the placebo group, nor the placebo group and the control group. These results are discussed in the context of several methodological limitations. The significant stress reductions in both the fish oil and the placebo group are considered in view of statistical regression, an effect likely to have been exaggerated by the time course of the study, a large placebo effect and the possibility of an active effect from the placebo. Conclusion There were significant differences (p < 0.05) in the fish oil group compared with no-treatment controls. This effect was not demonstrated in the placebo group. As a pilot study, it was not sufficiently powered to find the difference between the fish oil group and the placebo group significant. Further work needs to be undertaken to conclusively demonstrate these data trends. However, the findings from this research support the literature in finding a protective or 'adaptogenic' role for omega-3 fatty acids in stress.

A systematic review of laparoscopic live-donor nephrectomy

Background. A systematic review was undertaken to assess the safety and efficacy of laparoscopic live-donor nephrectomy (LLDN) compared with open live-donor nephrectomy (OLDN). Methods. Literature databases were searched from inception to March 2003 inclusive. Comparative studies of LLDN versus OLDN (randomized and nonrandomized) were included. Results. There were 44 included studies, and the quality of the available evidence was average. There was only one randomized controlled trial and six nonrandomized comparative studies with concurrent controls identified. In terms of safety, for donors, there did not seem to be any distinct difference between the laparoscopic and open approaches. No donor mortality was reported for either procedure, and the complication rates were similar although the types of complications experienced differed between the two procedures. The conversion rate for LLDN to an open procedure ranged from 0% to 13%. In terms of efficacy, LLDN seemed to be a slower operation with longer warm ischemia. times than OLDN, but this did not seem to have resulted in increased rates of delayed graft function for recipients. Donor postoperative recovery and convalescence seemed to be superior for LLDN, making it a potentially more attractive operation for living donors. Although in the short-term, graft function and survival did not seem to differ between the two techniques, long-term complication rates and allograft function could not be determined and further long-term follow-up is required. Conclusions. LLDN seems to be at least as safe and efficacious as OLDN in the short-term. However, it remains a technique in evolution. Further high-quality studies are required to resolve some of the outstanding issues surrounding its use, in particular, long-term follow-up of donor complications and recipient graft function and survival.

Diving behaviour of a reptile (Crocodylus johnstoni) in the wild: Interactions with heart rate and body temperature

The differences in physical properties of air and water pose unique behavioural and physiological demands on semiaquatic animals. The aim of this study was to describe the diving behaviour of the freshwater crocodile Crocodylus johnstoni in the wild and to assess the relationships between diving, body temperature, and heart rate. Time-depth recorders, temperature-sensitive radio transmitters, and heart rate transmitters were deployed on each of six C. johnstoni (4.0-26.5 kg), and data were obtained from five animals. Crocodiles showed the greatest diving activity in the morning (0600-1200 hours) and were least active at night, remaining at the water surface. Surprisingly, activity pattern was asynchronous with thermoregulation, and activity was correlated to light rather than to body temperature. Nonetheless, crocodiles thermoregulated and showed a typical heart rate hysteresis pattern (heart rate during heating greater than heart rate during cooling) in response to heating and cooling. Additionally, dive length decreased with increasing body temperature. Maximum diving length was 119.6 min, but the greatest proportion of diving time was spent on relatively short (