Forecasting stock returns using model-selection criteria

This paper examines the economic significance of return predictability in Australian equities. In light of considerable model uncertainty, formal model-selection criteria are used to choose a specification for the predictive model. A portfolio-switching strategy is implemented according to model predictions. Relative to a buy-and-hold market investment, the returns to the portfolio-switching strategy are impressive under several model-selection criteria, even after accounting for transaction costs. However, as these findings are not robust across other model-selection criteria examined, it is difficult to conclude that the degree of return predictability is economically significant.

An optimized model for rat liver perfusion studies

Conditions which influence the viability, integrity, and extraction efficiency of the isolated perfused rat liver were examined to establish optimal conditions for subsequent work in reperfusion injury studies including the choice of buffer, use of oncotic agents, hematocrit, perfusion flow rate, and pressure. Rat livers were perfused with MOPS-buffered Ringer solution with or without erythrocytes. Perfusates were collected and analyzed for blood gases, electrolytes, enzymes, radioactivity in MID studies, and lignocaine in extraction studies. Liver tissue was sampled for histological examinations, and wet:dry weight of the liver was also determined. MOPS-buffered Ringer solution was found to be superior to Krebs bicarbonate buffer, in terms of pH control and buffering capacity, especially during any prolonged period of liver perfusion. A pH of 7.2 is chosen for perfusion since this is the physiological pH of the portal blood. The presence of albumin was important as an oncotic agent, particularly when erythrocytes were used in the perfusate. Perfusion pressure, resistance, and vascular volume are how-dependent and the inclusion of erythrocytes in the perfusate substantially altered the flow characteristics for perfusion pressure and resistance but not vascular volume. Lignocaine extraction was relatively flow-independent. Perfusion injury as defined by enzyme release and tissue fine structure was closely related to the supply of O-2. The optimal conditions for liver perfusion depend upon an adequate supply of oxygen. This can be achieved by using either erythrocyte-free perfusate at a how rate greater than 6 ml/min/g liver or a 20% erythrocyte-containing perfusate at 2 ml/min/g. (C) 1996 Academic Press, Inc.

Isolated limb perfusion with melphalan for human melanoma xenografts in the hindlimb of nude rats: A surviving animal model

We have established a surviving model of isolated limb perfusion using xenografts of the human melanoma cell line MM 96L injected subcutaneously into the hindlimb of a nude rat, The femoral artery and vein were cannulated via the left renal artery and vein and the hind limb was isolated using tourniquets. The limb was perfused with Krebs Heinseleit buffer at 37 degrees C containing 4.7% bovine serum albumin at a constant flow rate of 4 mi per min for 30-60 min with 100% survival of the animals, Tumour vascularization and blood flow were demonstrated using vascular casts and [Cr-51]-microspheres. Following the addition of melphalan (15 or 100 mu g/ml), drug concentrations in the perfusate, tissues and systemic circulation were determined using high pressure liquid chromatography (HPLC), Systemic leakage, assessed using [I-125]albumin and melphalan and detected by a gamma-counter and HPLC respectively, was <0.5%. The melphalan concentration and tissue flow rate in the tumour deposits were 40 and 30% respectively, when compared with the surrounding subcutaneous tissue, At a dose of 15 mu g/ml, melphalan caused a reduction in tumour growth after 60 min perfusion, and a significant reduction in tumour size was seen when the melphalan dose was 100 mu g/ml. The surviving nude rat model of isolated limb perfusion for recurrent melanoma will allow examination of optimal perfusion conditions, along with the pharmacokinetics, pharmacodynamics and efficacy of melphalan and other drugs.

Melphalan dosing regimens for management of recurrent melanoma by isolated limb perfusion: Application of a physiological pharmacokinetic model based on melphalan distribution in the isolated perfused rat hindlimb

The optimal dosing schedule for melphalan therapy of recurrent malignant melanoma in isolated limb perfusions has been examined using a physiological pharmacokinetic model with data from isolated rat hindlimb perfusions (IRHP), The study included a comparison of melphalan distribution in IRHP under hyperthermia and normothermia conditions. Rat hindlimbs were perfused with Krebs-Henseleit buffer containing 4.7% bovine serum albumin at 37 or 41.5 degrees C at a flow rate of 4 ml/min. Concentrations of melphalan in perfusate and tissues were determined by high performance liquid chromatography with fluorescence detection, The concentration of melphalan in perfusate and tissues was linearly related to the input concentration. The rate and amount of melphalan uptake into the different tissues was higher at 41.5 degrees C than at 37 degrees C. A physiological pharmacokinetic model was validated from the tissue and perfusate time course of melphalan after melphalan perfusion. Application of the model involved the amount of melphalan exposure in the muscle, skin and fat in a recirculation system was related to the method of melphalan administration: single bolus > divided bolus > infusion, The peak concentration of melphalan in the perfusate was also related to the method of administration in the same order, Infusing the total dose of melphalan over 20 min during a 60 min perfusion optimized the exposure of tissues to melphalan whilst minimizing the peak perfusate concentration of melphalan. It is suggested that this method of melphalan administration may be preferable to other methods in terms of optimizing the efficacy of melphalan whilst minimizing the limb toxicity associated with its use in isolated limb perfusion.

Do harvest refuges buffer kangaroos against evolutionary responses to selective harvesting?

There is a wealth of literature documenting a directional change of body size in heavily harvested populations. Most of this work concentrates on aquatic systems, but terrestrial populations are equally at risk. This paper explores the capacity of harvest refuges to counteract potential effects of size-selective harvesting on the allele frequency,of populations. We constructed a stochastic, individual-based model parameterized with data on red kangaroos. Because we do not know which part of individual growth would change in the course of natural selection, we explored the effects of two alternative models of individual growth in which alleles affect either the growth rate or the maximum size. The model results show that size-selective harvesting can result in significantly smaller kangaroos for a given age when the entire population is subject to harvesting. In contrast, in scenarios that include dispersal from harvest refuges, the initial allele frequency remains virtually unchanged.

Angiotensin II facilitates autoregulation in the perfused mouse kidney: An optimized in vitro model for assessment of renal vascular and tubular function

Background and Aims: We have optimized the isolated perfused mouse kidney (IPMK) model for studying renal vascular and tubular function in vitro using 24-28 g C57BL6J mice; the wild type controls for many transgenic mice. Methods and Results: Buffer composition was optimized for bovine serum albumin concentration (BSA). The effect of adding erythrocytes on renal function and morphology was assessed. Autoregulation was investigated during stepped increases in perfusion pressure. Perfusion for 60 min at 90-110 mmHg with Krebs bicarbonate buffer containing 5.5% BSA, and amino acids produced functional parameters within the in vivo range. Erythrocytes increased renal vascular resistance (3.8 +/- 0.2 vs 2.4 +/- 0.1 mL/min.mmHg, P < 0.05), enhanced sodium reabsorption (FENa = 0.3 +/- 0.08 vs 1.5 +/- 0.7%, P < 0.05), produced equivalent glomerular filtration rates (GFR; 364 +/- 38 vs 400 +/- 9 muL/min per gkw) and reduced distal tubular cell injury in the inner stripe (5.8 +/- 1.7 vs 23.7 +/- 3.1%, P < 0.001) compared to cell free perfusion. The IPMK was responsive to vasoconstrictor (angiotensin II, EC50 100 pM) and vasodilator (methacholine, EC50 75 nM) mediators and showed partial autoregulation of perfusate flow under control conditions over 65-85 mmHg; autoregulatory index (ARI) of 0.66 +/- 0.11. Angiotensin II (100 pM) extended this range (to 65-120 mmHg) and enhanced efficiency (ARI 0.21 +/- 0.02, P < 0.05). Angiotensin II facilitation was antagonized by methacholine (ARI 0.76 +/- 0.08) and papaverine (ARI 0.91 +/- 0.13). Conclusion: The IPMK model is useful for studying renal physiology and pathophysiology without systemic neurohormonal influences.

Consumption habit and international stock returns

We use the consumption-based asset pricing model with habit formation to study the predictability and cross-section of returns from the international equity markets. We find that the predictability of returns from many developed countries' equity markets is explained in part by changing prices of risks associated with consumption relative to habit at the world as well as local levels. We also provide an exploratory investigation of the cross-sectional implications of the model under the complete world market integration hypothesis and find that the model performs mildly better than the traditional consumption-based model. the unconditional and conditional world CAPMs and a three-factor international asset pricing model. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Making Fedora easier to implement with Fez: A free open source content model and workflow management front-end to Fedora

The University of Queensland, Australia has developed Fez, a world-leading user-interface and management system for Fedora-based institutional repositories, which bridges the gap between a repository and users. Christiaan Kortekaas, Andrew Bennett and Keith Webster will review this open source software that gives institutions the power to create a comprehensive repository solution without the hassle..

A modified discrete random pore model allowing for different initial surface reactivity

We investigate here a modification of the discrete random pore model [Bhatia SK, Vartak BJ, Carbon 1996;34:1383], by including an additional rate constant which takes into account the different reactivity of the initial pore surface having attached functional groups and hydrogens, relative to the subsequently exposed surface. It is observed that the relative initial reactivity has a significant effect on the conversion and structural evolution, underscoring the importance of initial surface chemistry. The model is tested against experimental data on chemically controlled char oxidation and steam gasification at various temperatures. It is seen that the variations of the reaction rate and surface area with conversion are better represented by the present approach than earlier random pore models. The results clearly indicate the improvement of model predictions in the low conversion region, where the effect of the initially attached functional groups and hydrogens is more significant, particularly for char oxidation. It is also seen that, for the data examined, the initial surface chemistry is less important for steam gasification as compared to the oxidation reaction. Further development of the approach must also incorporate the dynamics of surface complexation, which is not considered here.

Adsorption in mesopores: A molecular-continuum model with application to MCM-41

The classical model of surface layering followed by capillary condensation during adsorption in mesopores, is modified here by consideration of the adsorbate solid interaction potential. The new theory accurately predicts the capillary coexistence curve as well as pore criticality, matching that predicted by density functional theory. The model also satisfactorily predicts the isotherm for nitrogen adsorption at 77.4 K on MCM-41 material of various pore sizes, synthesized and characterized in our laboratory, including the multilayer region, using only data on the variation of condensation pressures with pore diameter. The results indicate a minimum mesopore diameter for the surface layering model to hold as 14.1 Å, below which size micropore filling must occur, and a minimum pore diameter for mechanical stability of the hemispherical meniscus during desorption as 34.2 Å. For pores in-between these two sizes reversible condensation is predicted to occur, in accord with the experimental data for nitrogen adsorption on MCM-41 at 77.4 K.

A Nonstationary Model of Newborn EEG

The detection of seizure in the newborn is a critical aspect of neurological research. Current automatic detection techniques are difficult to assess due to the problems associated with acquiring and labelling newborn electroencephalogram (EEG) data. A realistic model for newborn EEG would allow confident development, assessment and comparison of these detection techniques. This paper presents a model for newborn EEG that accounts for its self-similar and non-stationary nature. The model consists of background and seizure sub-models. The newborn EEG background model is based on the short-time power spectrum with a time-varying power law. The relationship between the fractal dimension and the power law of a power spectrum is utilized for accurate estimation of the short-time power law exponent. The newborn EEG seizure model is based on a well-known time-frequency signal model. This model addresses all significant time-frequency characteristics of newborn EEG seizure which include; multiple components or harmonics, piecewise linear instantaneous frequency laws and harmonic amplitude modulation. Estimates of the parameters of both models are shown to be random and are modelled using the data from a total of 500 background epochs and 204 seizure epochs. The newborn EEG background and seizure models are validated against real newborn EEG data using the correlation coefficient. The results show that the output of the proposed models has a higher correlation with real newborn EEG than currently accepted models (a 10% and 38% improvement for background and seizure models, respectively).

Parliament House Competition Model, Canberra

View of model for competition entry.

Parliament House Competition Model, Darwin

View of model for competition entry.