Regression to the mean: what it is and how to deal with it

Background Regression to the mean (RTM) is a statistical phenomenon that can make natural variation in repeated data look like real change. It happens when unusually large or small measurements tend to be followed by measurements that are closer to the mean. Methods We give some examples of the phenomenon, and discuss methods to overcome it at the design and analysis stages of a study. Results The effect of RTM in a sample becomes more noticeable with increasing measurement error and when follow-up measurements are only examined on a sub-sample selected using a baseline value. Conclusions RTM is a ubiquitous phenomenon in repeated data and should always be considered as a possible cause of an observed change. Its effect can be alleviated through better study design and use of suitable statistical methods.

Strong and weak lifespan extension: What is most feasible and likely?

Recent advances in biomedical science indicate that it may eventually be possible to intervene in the biological process of human ageing. This paper overviews the current state of the science of lifespan extension and promising future directions. It is uncertain whether 'strong' lifespan extension - the extension of human life beyond the maximum 122 years so far observed - will become a reality. It is more likely that cumulative effects of numerous scientific and biomedical advances in the treatment of common disease will produce 'weak' lifespan extension - the extension of average life expectancy. The practical application of molecular, genetic and nanomaterials research may also lead to advances in life expectancy. It is not too early to begin to consider the policy implications of either form of lifespan extension.

What's scene and not seen: Influences of movement and task upon what we see

Studies concerning the processing of natural scenes using eye movement equipment have revealed that observers retain surprisingly little information from one fixation to the next. Other studies, in which fixation remained constant while elements within the scene were changed, have shown that, even without refixation, objects within a scene are surprisingly poorly represented. Although this effect has been studied in some detail in static scenes, there has been relatively little work on scenes as we would normally experience them, namely dynamic and ever changing. This paper describes a comparable form of change blindness in dynamic scenes, in which detection is performed in the presence of simulated observer motion. The study also describes how change blindness is affected by the manner in which the observer interacts with the environment, by comparing detection performance of an observer as the passenger or driver of a car. The experiments show that observer motion reduces the detection of orientation and location changes, and that the task of driving causes a concentration of object analysis on or near the line of motion, relative to passive viewing of the same scene.

Which one of these is not like the others? An inter-hospital study of the viscosity of thickened fluids

Engineering This investigation examined the rheological (viscosity and yield stress) and material property (density) characteristics of the thickened meal-time and videofluorscopy fluids provided by 10 major metropolitan hospitals. Differences in the thickness of thickened fluids were considered as a source of variability and potential hazard for inter-hospital transfers of dysphagic patients. The results indicated considerable differences in the viscosity, density, and yield stress of both meal-time and videofluoroscopy fluids. In theory, the results suggest that dysphagic patients transferred between hospitals could be placed on inappropriate levels of fluid thickness because of inherent differences in the rheology and material property characteristics of the fluids provided by different hospitals. Slowed improvement or medical complications are potential worst-case scenarios for dysphagic patients if the difference between the thick fluids offered by 2 hospitals are extreme. The investigation outlines the most appropriate way to assess the rheological and material property characteristics of thickened fluids. In addition, it suggests a plan of quality improvement to reduce the variability of the thickness of fluids offered at different hospitals.

Is there an association between chronic lung disease and abdominal aortic aneurysm expansion?

Background: Although there is evidence demonstrating an association between chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA), it is not clear whether COPD predicts greater rates of expansion of established aneurysms. We sought such an association in a cohort of men with aneurysms detected in a population-based study of screening for aneurysms. Methods: In addition to regular aortic ultrasound scans, 179 men with AAA underwent full lung function testing in order to identify the presence of COPD and its subgroups, emphysema and other obstructive ventilatory defects (OVD). The rate of expansion of each aneurysm was calculated and the men were divided into 'rapid expanders' (3 mm or more per year) and 'slow expanders' (less than 3 mm per year). Any association with the presence of COPD or smoking was tested using a multivariate model. Results: Over a median follow-up period of 36 months the mean rate of aortic expansion for the cohort of 179 men was 2.1 mm/year. There was no significant difference in prevalence of COPD (68% overall) or having ever been a smoker (87% overall) between the rapid expanders and the slow expanders. Conclusions: Although there was a high prevalence of COPD among men with an AAA, there was no association between the rate of expansion of AAA and the presence of any form of this disease.

Expression of resistance by tetraploid and diploid lucerne genotypes to Phytophthora medicaginis is not influenced by inoculum level or by temperature

Phytophthora-resistant lucerne cultivars do not always perform well under conditions of high disease pressure in the field. To determine whether resistance expression remains stable under different infection intensities, tetraploid and diploid lucerne genotypes, genotypically defined for their reactions to Phytophthora medicaginis, were clonally propagated, and the influence of different reproducible inoculum levels (0 . 5 and 5 . 0 g dry weight mycelium/kg dry weight potting mix), the period of exposure to these levels (10-60 days), and temperature (16/22 degrees C and 24/30 degrees C) on disease expression was determined in controlled environments. Generally, expression of resistance by resistant genotypes, remained stable under these conditions. Biotic (e.g. Aphanomyces eutiches) or abiotic factors other than P. medicaginis may be responsible for the poorer than expected performance under field conditions in some instances, or the percentage of resistant plants in some cultivars currently classified as resistant is insufficient to provide buffering against productivity reductions under severe epidemics. Further research is needed to clarify the situation.

Feedforward contraction of transversus abdominis is not influenced by the direction of arm movement

Because the structure of the spine is inherently unstable, muscle activation is essential for the maintenance of trunk posture and intervertebral control when the limbs are moved. To investigate how the central nervous system deals with this situation the temporal components of the response of the muscles of the trunk were evaluated during rapid limb movement performed in response to a visual stimulus. Fine-wire electromyography (EMG) electrodes were inserted into transversus abdominis (TrA), obliquus internus abdominis (OI) and obliquus externus abdominis (OE) of 15 subjects under the guidance of real-time ultrasound imaging. Surface electrodes were placed over rectus abdominis (RA), lumbar multifidus (MF) and the three parts of deltoid. In a standing position, ten repetitions of shoulder flexion, abduction and extension were performed by the subjects as fast as possible in response to a visual stimulus. The onset of TrA EMG occurred in advance of deltoid irrespective of the movement direction. The time to onset of EMC activity of OI, OE, RA and MF varied with the movement direction, being activated earliest when the prime action of the muscle opposed the reactive forces associated with the specific limb movement. It is postulated that the non-direction-specific contraction of TrA may be related to the control of trunk. stability independent of the requirement for direction-specific control of the centre of gravity in relation to the base of support.

Histone hyperacetylation induced by histone deacetylase inhibitors is not sufficient to cause growth inhibition in human dermal fibroblasts

Use of specific histone deacetylase inhibitors has revealed critical roles for the histone deacetylases (HDAC) in controlling proliferation. Although many studies have correlated the function of HDAC inhibitors with the hyperacetylation of histones, few studies have specifically addressed whether the accumulation of acetylated histones, caused by HDAC inhibitor treatment, is responsible for growth inhibition. In the present study we show that HDAC inhibitors cause growth inhibition in normal and transformed keratinocytes but not in normal dermal fibroblasts, This was despite the observation that the HDAC inhibitor, suberic bishydroxamate (SBHA), caused a kinetically similar accumulation of hyperacetylated histones, This cell type-specific response to SBHA was not due to the inactivation of SBHA by fibroblasts, nor was it due to differences in the expression of specific HDAC family members. Remarkably, overexpression of HDACs 1, 4, and 6 in normal human fibroblasts resulted in cells that could be growth-inhibited by SBHA. These data suggest that, although histone acetylation is a major target for HDAC inhibitors, the accumulation of hyperacetylated histones is not sufficient to cause growth inhibition in all cell types, This suggests that growth inhibition, caused by HDAC inhibitors, may be the culmination of histone hyperacetylation acting in concert with other growth regulatory pathways.

Quorum sensing is not required for twitching motility in Pseudomonas aeruginosa

It has been reported that mutations in the quorum-sensing genes lasI and rhlI in Pseudomonas aeruginosa result in, among many other things, loss of twitching motility (A. Glessner, R. S. Smith, B. H. Iglewski, and J. B. Robinson, J. Bacteriol. 181:1623-1629, 1999). We constructed knockouts of lasI and rhlI and the corresponding regulatory genes lasR and rhlR and found no effect on twitching motility. However, twitching-defective variants accumulated during culturing of lasI and rhlI mutants. Further analysis showed that the stable twitching-defective variants of lasI and rhlI mutants had arisen as a consequence of secondary mutations in vfr and algR, respectively, both of which encode key regulators affecting a variety of phenotypes, including twitching motility. In addition, when grown in shaking broth culture, lasI and rhlI mutants, but not the wild-type parent, also accumulated unstable variants that lacked both twitching motility and swimming motility and appeared to be identical in phenotype to the S1 and S2 variants that were recently reported to occur at high frequencies in P. aeruginosa strains grown as a biofilm or in static broth culture (E. Deziel, Y. Comeau, and R. Villemur, J. Bacteriol. 183:1195-1204, 2001). These results indicate that mutations in one regulatory system may create distortions that select during subsequent culturing for compensatory mutations in other regulatory genes within the cellular network. This problem may have compromised some past studies of regulatory hierarchies controlled by quorum sensing and of bacterial regulatory systems in general.

Dizygotic twinning is not associated with methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase haplotypes

Background: Folate metabolism is critical to embryonic development, influencing neural tube defects (NTD) and recurrent early pregnancy loss. Polymorphisms in 5,10-methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) have been associated with dizygotic (DZ) twinning through pregnancy loss. Methods: The C677T and A1298C polymorphisms in MTHFR were genotyped in 258 Australasian families (1016 individuals) and 118 Dutch families (462 individuals) of mothers of DZ twins and a population sample of 462 adolescent twin families (1861 individuals). Haplotypes were constructed from the alleles, and transmission of the MTHFR haplotypes to mothers of DZ twins and from parents to twins in the adolescent twin families analysed. Results: The C677T and A1298C were common in all three populations (frequencies > 0.29). There was strong linkage disequilibrium (D'=1) between the variants, showing that specific combinations of alleles (haplotypes) were transmitted together. Three haplotypes accounted for nearly all the variation. There was no evidence of any association between MTHFR genotype and twinning in mothers of twins, or of the loss of specific MTHFR genotypes during twin pregnancies. Conclusions: It is concluded that variation in twinning frequency is not associated with MTHFR genotype.

Believing is not enough: Predicting support for the NTEU on an Australian campus

Asurvey-based field study was conducted with 232 members and nonmembers of the National Tertiary Education Union to investigate the psychological processes underpinning union support. Drawing on value-expectancy models and social identity/self-categorisation theory, this study investigated the role that both individual and grouprelated factors play in predicting attitudinal and behavioural support for the union. Variables investigated included instrumental and ideological attitudes, perceptions of a normative climate of union-support, and perceptions of higher education being under threat. Further to support for previous findings for the role of instrumental and ideological attitudes it was found that the perceived workplace norm had the anticipated direct effect on behaviour and evaluation and also moderated the behavioural expression of ideological and instrumental attitudes. The perception of threat to employment and higher education also directly impacted on behaviour and moderated the behavioural expression of ideological beliefs. The implications of these findings for collective action research will he discussed.

'Slippage' is not a dirty word: Considering the usefulness of Giddens' notion of knowledgeability in understanding the possibilities for teacher education

The attempt to understand the relationship between messages intended and messages received has been an enduring issue in teacher education. For the past three decades researchers have made forays into understanding this enduring issue, and in the process have drawn on various explanatory frameworks, one of them being socialisation. In this paper we work with Giddens' structuration theory as well as his concept of knowledgeability as analytical frameworks for understanding the relationship between messages intended (by the teacher educator) and messages received (by the student-teachers). Our discussion is informed by the findings of a study that investigated student-teachers' interpretations of the pedagogical process of a physical education teacher education course. Data generated from conversations with, and observations of, the student-teachers indicated that there was considerable ���slippage��� between the teacher educator's critical pedagogy inspired intentions and what was understood by the student-teachers.