Accelerating seismic energy release and evolution of event time and size statistics: Results from two heterogeneous cellular automaton models

The evolution of event time and size statistics in two heterogeneous cellular automaton models of earthquake behavior are studied and compared to the evolution of these quantities during observed periods of accelerating seismic energy release Drier to large earthquakes. The two automata have different nearest neighbor laws, one of which produces self-organized critical (SOC) behavior (PSD model) and the other which produces quasi-periodic large events (crack model). In the PSD model periods of accelerating energy release before large events are rare. In the crack model, many large events are preceded by periods of accelerating energy release. When compared to randomized event catalogs, accelerating energy release before large events occurs more often than random in the crack model but less often than random in the PSD model; it is easier to tell the crack and PSD model results apart from each other than to tell either model apart from a random catalog. The evolution of event sizes during the accelerating energy release sequences in all models is compared to that of observed sequences. The accelerating energy release sequences in the crack model consist of an increase in the rate of events of all sizes, consistent with observations from a small number of natural cases, however inconsistent with a larger number of cases in which there is an increase in the rate of only moderate-sized events. On average, no increase in the rate of events of any size is seen before large events in the PSD model.

Load-unload response ratio and accelerating moment/energy release critical region scaling and earthquake prediction

The main idea of the Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) is that when a system is stable, its response to loading corresponds to its response to unloading, whereas when the system is approaching an unstable state, the response to loading and unloading becomes quite different. High LURR values and observations of Accelerating Moment/Energy Release (AMR/AER) prior to large earthquakes have led different research groups to suggest intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible and imply that the LURR and AMR/AER observations may have a similar physical origin. To study this possibility, we conducted a retrospective examination of several Australian and Chinese earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 5.0 to 7.9, including Australia's deadly Newcastle earthquake and the devastating Tangshan earthquake. Both LURR values and best-fit power-law time-to-failure functions were computed using data within a range of distances from the epicenter. Like the best-fit power-law fits in AMR/AER, the LURR value was optimal using data within a certain epicentral distance implying a critical region for LURR. Furthermore, LURR critical region size scales with mainshock magnitude and is similar to the AMR/AER critical region size. These results suggest a common physical origin for both the AMR/AER and LURR observations. Further research may provide clues that yield an understanding of this mechanism and help lead to a solid foundation for intermediate-term earthquake prediction.

The plausibility of long-wavelength stress correlation or stress magnitude as a mechanism for precursory seismicity: Results from two simple elastic models

Observations of accelerating seismic activity prior to large earthquakes in natural fault systems have raised hopes for intermediate-term eartquake forecasting. If this phenomena does exist, then what causes it to occur? Recent theoretical work suggests that the accelerating seismic release sequence is a symptom of increasing long-wavelength stress correlation in the fault region. A more traditional explanation, based on Reid's elastic rebound theory, argues that an accelerating sequence of seismic energy release could be a consequence of increasing stress in a fault system whose stress moment release is dominated by large events. Both of these theories are examined using two discrete models of seismicity: a Burridge-Knopoff block-slider model and an elastic continuum based model. Both models display an accelerating release of seismic energy prior to large simulated earthquakes. In both models there is a correlation between the rate of seismic energy release with the total root-mean-squared stress and the level of long-wavelength stress correlation. Furthermore, both models exhibit a systematic increase in the number of large events at high stress and high long-wavelength stress correlation levels. These results suggest that either explanation is plausible for the accelerating moment release in the models examined. A statistical model based on the Burridge-Knopoff block-slider is constructed which indicates that stress alone is sufficient to produce accelerating release of seismic energy with time prior to a large earthquake.

Simulation of the load-unload response ratio and critical sensitivity in the lattice solid model

The Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is an intermediate-term earthquake prediction approach that has shown considerable promise. It involves calculating the ratio of a specified energy release measure during loading and unloading where loading and unloading periods are determined from the earth tide induced perturbations in the Coulomb Failure Stress on optimally oriented faults. In the lead-up to large earthquakes, high LURR values are frequently observed a few months or years prior to the event. These signals may have a similar origin to the observed accelerating seismic moment release (AMR) prior to many large earthquakes or may be due to critical sensitivity of the crust when a large earthquake is imminent. As a first step towards studying the underlying physical mechanism for the LURR observations, numerical studies are conducted using the particle based lattice solid model (LSM) to determine whether LURR observations can be reproduced. The model is initialized as a heterogeneous 2-D block made up of random-sized particles bonded by elastic-brittle links. The system is subjected to uniaxial compression from rigid driving plates on the upper and lower edges of the model. Experiments are conducted using both strain and stress control to load the plates. A sinusoidal stress perturbation is added to the gradual compressional loading to simulate loading and unloading cycles and LURR is calculated. The results reproduce signals similar to those observed in earthquake prediction practice with a high LURR value followed by a sudden drop prior to macroscopic failure of the sample. The results suggest that LURR provides a good predictor for catastrophic failure in elastic-brittle systems and motivate further research to study the underlying physical mechanisms and statistical properties of high LURR values. The results provide encouragement for earthquake prediction research and the use of advanced simulation models to probe the physics of earthquakes.

Spatio-temporal scanning and statistical test of the accelerating moment release (AMR) model using Australian earthquake data

The Accelerating Moment Release (AMR) preceding earthquakes with magnitude above 5 in Australia that occurred during the last 20 years was analyzed to test the Critical Point Hypothesis. Twelve earthquakes in the catalog were chosen based on a criterion for the number of nearby events. Results show that seven sequences with numerous events recorded leading up to the main earthquake exhibited accelerating moment release. Two occurred near in time and space to other earthquakes preceded by AM R. The remaining three sequences had very few events in the catalog so the lack of AMR detected in the analysis may be related to catalog incompleteness. Spatio-temporal scanning of AMR parameters shows that 80% of the areas in which AMR occurred experienced large events. In areas of similar background seismicity with no large events, 10 out of 12 cases exhibit no AMR, and two others are false alarms where AMR was observed but no large event followed. The relationship between AMR and Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) was studied. Both methods predict similar critical region sizes, however, the critical point time using AMR is slightly earlier than the time of the critical point LURR anomaly.

Correcting physical activity energy expenditure for body size in young children

Being able to compare the energy cost of physical activity across and between populations is important. However, energy expenditure is related to body size, so it is necessary to appropriately adjust for differences in body size when comparisons are made. This study examined the relationship between the daily energy cost of activity and body weight in 47 children aged 6-10 years. Log-log regression showed weight(1.0) to be an inappropriate adjustment for activity energy expenditure in children, with a more valid adjustment being weight(0.3). Clearly, both weight dependent and non-weight dependent activities are part of everyday living in children. This balance influences how energy expenditure is correctly adjusted for body size. Investigators interpreting data of energy expenditure in children from children of different body sizes need to take this into consideration.

Hydraulic Design of Stepped Spillways and Downstream Energy Dissipators for Embankment Dams

In recent years, the design flows of many dams were re-evaluated, often resulting in discharges larger than the original design. In many cases, the occurrence of the revised flows could result in dam overtopping because of insufficient storage and spillway capacity. An experimental study was conducted herein to gain a better understanding of the flow properties in stepped chutes with slopes typical of embankment dams. The work was based upon a Froude similitude in large-size experimental facilities. A total of 10 configurations were tested including smooth steps, steps equipped with devices to enhance energy dissipation and rough steps. The present results yield a new design procedure. The design method includes some key issues not foreseen in prior studies : e.g., gradually varied flow, type of flow regime, flow resistance. It is believed that the outcomes are valid for a wide range of chute geometry and flow conditions typical of embankment chutes.

Least energy solutions of a critical Neumann problem with a weight

We investigate the effect of the coefficient of the critical nonlinearity for the Neumann problem on the existence of least energy solutions. As a by-product we establish a Sobolev inequality with interior norm.

Algebraic Bethe ansatz method for the exact calculation of energy spectra and form factors: applications to models of Bose-Einstein condensates and metallic nanograins

In this review we demonstrate how the algebraic Bethe ansatz is used for the calculation of the-energy spectra and form factors (operator matrix elements in the basis of Hamiltonian eigenstates) in exactly solvable quantum systems. As examples we apply the theory to several models of current interest in the study of Bose-Einstein condensates, which have been successfully created using ultracold dilute atomic gases. The first model we introduce describes Josephson tunnelling between two coupled Bose-Einstein condensates. It can be used not only for the study of tunnelling between condensates of atomic gases, but for solid state Josephson junctions and coupled Cooper pair boxes. The theory is also applicable to models of atomic-molecular Bose-Einstein condensates, with two examples given and analysed. Additionally, these same two models are relevant to studies in quantum optics; Finally, we discuss the model of Bardeen, Cooper and Schrieffer in this framework, which is appropriate for systems of ultracold fermionic atomic gases, as well as being applicable for the description of superconducting correlations in metallic grains with nanoscale dimensions.; In applying all the above models to. physical situations, the need for an exact analysis of small-scale systems is established due to large quantum fluctuations which render mean-field approaches inaccurate.

Net uptake of dissolved free amino acids by the giant clam, Tridacna maxima: alternative sources of energy and nitrogen?

The role of dissolved free amino acids (DFAA) in nitrogen and energy budgets was investigated for the giant clam, Tridacna maxima, growing under field conditions at One Tree Island, at the southern end of the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Giant clams (121.5-143.7 mm in shell length) took up neutral, acidic and basic amino acids. The rates of net uptake of DFAA did not differ between light and dark, nor for clams growing under normal or slightly enriched ammonium concentrations. Calculations based on the net uptake concentrations typical of the maximum concentrations of DFAA found in coral reef waters (similar to 0.1 mu M)revealed that DFAA could only contribute 0.1% and 1% of the energy and nitrogen demands of giant clams, respectively. These results suggest that DFAA does not supply significant amounts of energy or nitrogen for giant clams or their symbionts.