28 resultados para [JEL:C5] Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - Econometric Modeling
Resumo:
Whether contemporary human populations are still evolving as a result of natural selection has been hotly debated. For natural selection to cause evolutionary change in a trait, variation in the trait must be correlated with fitness and be genetically heritable and there must be no genetic constraints to evolution. These conditions have rarely been tested in human populations. In this study, data from a large twin cohort were used to assess whether selection Will cause a change among women in contemporary Western population for three life-history traits: age at menarche, age at first reproduction, and age at menopause. We control for temporal variation in fecundity (the baby boom phenomenon) and differences between women in educational background and religious affiliation. University-educated women have 35% lower fitness than those with less than seven years education, and Roman Catholic women have about 20% higher fitness than those of other religions. Although these differences were significant, education and religion only accounted for 2% and 1% of variance in fitness, respectively. Using structural equation modeling, we reveal significant genetic influences for all three life-history traits, with heritability estimates of 0.50, 0.23, and 0.45, respectively. However, strong genetic covariation with reproductive fitness could only be demonstrated for age at first reproduction, with much weaker covariation for age at menopause and no significant covariation for age at menarche. Selection may, therefore, lead to the evolution of earlier age at first reproduction in this population. We also estimate substantial heritable variation in fitness itself, with approximately 39% of the variance attributable to additive genetic effects, the remainder consisting of unique environmental effects and small effects from education and religion. We discuss mechanisms that could be maintaining such a high heritability for fitness. Most likely is that selection is now acting on different traits from which it did in pre-industrial human populations.
Resumo:
Background: The aim of this study was to examine minor physical anomalies and quantitative measures of the head and face in patients with psychosis vs healthy controls. Methods: Based on a comprehensive prevalence study of psychosis, we recruited 310 individuals with psychosis and 303 controls. From this sample, we matched 180 case-control pairs for age and sex. Individual minor physical anomalies and quantitative measures related to head size and facial height and depth were compared within the matched pairs. Based on all subjects, we examined the specificity of the findings by comparing craniofacial summary scores in patients with nonaffective or affective psychosis and controls. Results: The odds of having a psychotic disorder were increased in those with wider skull bases (odds ratio [OR], 1.40; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02-1.17), smaller lower-facial heights (glabella to subnasal) (OR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.44-0.75), protruding ears (OR, 1.72; 95% CI, 1.05-2.82), and shorter (OR, 2.29; 95% CI, 1.37-3.82) and wider (OR, 2.28; 95% CI, 1.43-3.65) palates. Compared with controls, those with psychotic disorder had skulls that were more brachycephalic. These differences were found to distinguish patients with nonaffective and affective psychoses from controls. Conclusions: Several of the features that differentiate patients from controls relate to the development of the neuro-basicranial complex and the adjacent temporal and frontal lobes. Future research should examine both the temporal lobe and the middle cranial fossa to reconcile our anthropomorphic findings and the literature showing smaller temporal lobes in patients with schizophrenia. Closer attention to the skull base may provide clues to the nature and timing of altered brain development in patients with psychosis.
Resumo:
Problems associated with the stickiness of food in processing and storage practices along with its causative factors are outlined. Fundamental mechanisms that explain why and how food products become sticky are discussed. Methods currently in use for characterizing and overcoming stickiness problems in food processing and storage operations are described. The use of glass transition temperature-based model, which provides a rational basis for understanding and characterizing the stickiness of many food products, is highlighted.
Resumo:
Dispersal, or the amount of dispersion between an individual's birthplace and that of its offspring, is of great importance in population biology, behavioural ecology and conservation, however, obtaining direct estimates from field data on natural populations can be problematic. The prickly forest skink, Gnypetoscincus queenslandiae, is a rainforest endemic skink from the wet tropics of Australia. Because of its log-dwelling habits and lack of definite nesting sites, a demographic estimate of dispersal distance is difficult to obtain. Neighbourhood size, defined as 4 piD sigma (2) (where D is the population density and sigma (2) the mean axial squared parent-offspring dispersal rate), dispersal and density were estimated directly and indirectly for this species using mark-recapture and microsatellite data, respectively, on lizards captured at a local geographical scale of 3 ha. Mark-recapture data gave a dispersal rate of 843 m(2)/generation (assuming a generation time of 6.5 years), a time-scaled density of 13 635 individuals * generation/km(2) and, hence, a neighbourhood size of 144 individuals. A genetic method based on the multilocus (10 loci) microsatellite genotypes of individuals and their geographical location indicated that there is a significant isolation by distance pattern, and gave a neighbourhood size of 69 individuals, with a 95% confidence interval between 48 and 184. This translates into a dispersal rate of 404 m(2)/generation when using the mark-recapture density estimation, or an estimate of time-scaled population density of 6520 individuals * generation/km(2) when using the mark-recapture dispersal rate estimate. The relationship between the two categories of neighbourhood size, dispersal and density estimates and reasons for any disparities are discussed.
Resumo:
Aims: To characterise chronic lateral epicondylalgia using the McGill Pain Questionnaire, Visual Analog Scales for pain and function, and Quantitative Sensory Tests; and to examine the relationship between these tests in a population with chronic lateral epicondylalgia. Method: Fifty-six patients (29 female, 27 male) diagnosed with unilateral lateral epicondylalgia of 18.7 months (mean) duration (range 1-300), with a mean age of 50.7 years (range 27-73) participated in this study. Each participant underwent assessment with the McGill Pain Questionnaire (MPQ), Visual Analog Scales (VAS) for pain and function. and Quantitative Sensory Tests (QST) including thermal and pressure pain thresholds, pain free grip strength, and neuromeningeal tissue testing via the upper limb tension test 2b (ULTT 2b). Results: Moderate correlation (r = .338-.514, p = .000-.013) was found between all indices of the MPQ and VAS for pain experienced in the previous 24 hours and week. Thermal pain threshold was found to be significantly higher in males. A significant poor to moderate correlation was found between the Pain Rating Index (PRI) in the sensory category of the MPQ and ULTT2b scores (r = .353, p = .038). There was no other significant correlation between MPQ and QST data. Pain free grip strength was poorly yet significantly correlated with duration of pathology (r = 318, p = .038). Conclusion: The findings of this study are in agreement with others (Melzack and Katz, 1994) regarding the multidimensional nature of pain, in a condition conventionally conceived as a musculoskeletal pain state. The findings also suggest that utilisation of only one pain measurement tool is unlikely to provide a thorough clinical picture of pain experienced with chronic lateral epicondylalgia.
Resumo:
A number of authors concerned with the analysis of rock jointing have used the idea that the joint areal or diametral distribution can be linked to the trace length distribution through a theorem attributed to Crofton. This brief paper seeks to demonstrate why Crofton's theorem need not be used to link moments of the trace length distribution captured by scan line or areal mapping to the moments of the diametral distribution of joints represented as disks and that it is incorrect to do so. The valid relationships for areal or scan line mapping between all the moments of the trace length distribution and those of the joint size distribution for joints modeled as disks are recalled and compared with those that might be applied were Crofton's theorem assumed to apply. For areal mapping, the relationship is fortuitously correct but incorrect for scan line mapping.
Resumo:
To examine the role of the effector dynamics of the wrist in the production of rhythmic motor activity, we estimated the phase shifts between the EMG and the task-related output for a rhythmic isometric torque production task and an oscillatory movement, and found a substantial difference (45-52degrees) between the two. For both tasks, the relation between EMG and task-related output (torque or displacement) was adequately reproduced with a physiologically motivated musculoskeletal model. The model simulations demonstrated the importance of the contribution of passive structures to the overall dynamics and provided an account for the observed phase shifts in the dynamic task. Additional simulations of the musculoskeletal model with added load suggested that particular changes in the phase relation between EMG and movement may follow largely from the intrinsic muscle dynamics, rather than being the result of adaptations in the neural control of joint stiffness. The implications of these results are discussed in relation to (models of) interlimb coordination in rhythmic tasks. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
This article reports a longitudinal study that examined mergers between three large multi-site public-sector organizations. Both qualitative and quantitative methods of analysis are used to examine the effect of leadership and change management strategies on acceptance of cultural change by individuals. Findings indicate that in many cases the change that occurs as a result of a merger is imposed on the leaders themselves, and it is often the pace of change that inhibits the successful re-engineering of the culture. In this respect, the success or otherwise of any merger hinges on individual perceptions about the manner in which the process is handled and the direction in which the culture is moved. Communication and a transparent change process are important, as this will often determine not only how a leader will be regarded, but who will be regarded as a leader. Leaders need to be competent and trained in the process of transforming organizations to ensure that individuals within the organization accept the changes prompted by a merger.
Resumo:
In cell lifespan studies the exponential nature of cell survival curves is often interpreted as showing the rate of death is independent of the age of the cells within the population. Here we present an alternative model where cells that die are replaced and the age and lifespan of the population pool is monitored until a, steady state is reached. In our model newly generated individual cells are given a determined lifespan drawn from a number of known distributions including the lognormal, which is frequently found in nature. For lognormal lifespans the analytic steady-state survival curve obtained can be well-fit by a single or double exponential, depending on the mean and standard deviation. Thus, experimental evidence for exponential lifespans of one and/or two populations cannot be taken as definitive evidence for time and age independence of cell survival. A related model for a dividing population in steady state is also developed. We propose that the common adoption of age-independent, constant rates of change in biological modelling may be responsible for significant errors, both of interpretation and of mathematical deduction. We suggest that additional mathematical and experimental methods must be used to resolve the relationship between time and behavioural changes by cells that are predominantly unsynchronized.