Hotel Profit Implications from Rising Wages and Inflation in the U.S.

Macroeconomic models based on the Phillips Curve predict that as the unemployment rate declines toward the long-run, natural rate, the pace of wage and price growth accelerates and inflation rises.1 In this paper I analyze the profitability prospects for the U.S. hotel industry in today’s relatively volatile economic environment, keeping in mind the Phillips Curve’s general principle that inflation and employment have an inverse, but relatively stable short-term relationship. Although employment and economic growth in the U.S. have been uneven in recent months, the unemployment rate has declined to less than 5 percent, which many economists believe is close to the natural rate. Growth in wages and salaries, as measured by the Employment Cost Index, has concurrently been moving upward between 2.5 and 3.0 percent during the past 12 months. At the same time, general inflation remains below levels that might typically be expected this late in the cycle, although core inflation is bumping up against the Federal Reserve’s 2-percent target. If the inflation rate continues to move upward as predicted by Phillips Curve models (and encouraged by the Federal Reserve), rising labor costs and other expenses will exert downward pressure on U.S. business profits. Backward movement up the Phillips Curve (with greater inflation) coincides with an expanding economy. In that scenario, prices of goods and services also will rise in real terms if their supply cannot keep up with demand, and producers have the ability to raise prices (absent fixed-price contracts such as leases).

Hotel Sustainability Benchmarking Index 2016: Energy, Water, and Carbon

Several studies have been undertaken or attempted by industry and academe to address the need for lodging industry carbon benchmarking. However, these studies have focused on normalizing resource use with the goal of rating or comparing all properties based on multivariate regression according to an industry-wide set of variables, with the result that data sets for analysis were limited. This approach is backward, because practical hotel industry benchmarking must first be undertaken within a specific location and segment.1 Therefore, the CHSB study’s goal is to build a representative database providing raw benchmarks as a base for industry comparisons.2 These results are presented in the CHSB2016 Index, through which a user can obtain the range of benchmarks for energy consumption, water consumption, and greenhouse gas emissions for hotels within specific segments and geographic locations.