Leverage, Volatile Future Earnings Growth and Expected Stock Returns

We provide theory and evidence to complement Choi's [RFS, 2013] important new insights on the returns to equity in `value' firms. We show that higher future earnings growth ameliorates the value-reducing effect of leverage and, because the market for earnings is incomplete, reduces the earnings-risk sensitivity of the default option. Ceteris paribus, a levered firm with low (high) earnings growth is more sensitive to the first (second) of these effects thus generating higher (lower) expected returns. We demonstrate this by modeling equity as an Asian-style call option on net earnings and find significant empirical support for our hypotheses.

Accounting Earnings Announcements, Institutional Investor Concentration, and Common Stock Returns

[Excerpt] This study examines the relation between the level of institutional investor ownership and the magnitude of security price variability at quarterly earnings announcement dates. Prior research consistently documents a negative association between firm size and announcement-date return variability. One explanation for this finding is that as more timely, alternative information becomes available on large firms prior to an announcement date, their security prices become informative, thereby reducing the information content of the earnings announcement. Large firms are closely followed by institutional investors. These investors dedicate substantial resources to information search. Therefore, the link between size and information production may be attributable to the influence of institutional investors on the information production process. Because institutional trades can also affect security prices, however, the precise impact of institutional following on the variability of prices at quarterly earnings dates is not evident.

Future Earnings Growth Volatility and the Value Premium

The value premium is well established in empirical asset pricing, but to date there is little understanding as to its fundamental drivers. We use a stochastic earnings valuation model to establish a direct link between the volatility of future earnings growth and firm value. We illustrate that risky earnings growth affects growth and value firms differently. We provide empirical evidence that the volatility of future earnings growth is a significant determinant of the value premium. Using data on individual firms and characteristic-sorted test portfolios, we also find that earnings growth volatility is significant in explaining the cross-sectional variation of stock returns. Our findings imply that the value premium is the rational consequence of accounting for risky earnings growth in the firm valuation process.